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Briefing:
Madam President Hillary
Guy Hogue
Have you heard any good conspiracy theories lately? Let me
offer one for your consideration, but first, a little background
review. The Democratic primary elections began with an angry
Howard Dean lambasting Bush and bashing business. Dean’s
poll numbers soared. Grass-roots money poured into Dean’s
coffers. Big unions and big corporations watched in angry
amazement as little people outbid them in the political raffle.
Soon, most Democratic contenders copied Dean’s campaign
rhetoric. Those who didn’t, dropped out. John Kerry couldn’t
decide, and looked like a racehorse facing the wrong direction in
the starting gates. Finally, he too modified his philosophy and
“reexplained” his senate voting record.
Hold
it! At this point let’s take a break and discuss “push
polls.” A push poll is an opinion poll designed with leading
questions intended to elicit answers from the respondent showing
results desired by the questioner. Push polls have long been tools
of clever politicians and were taken to new levels by the Clintons
during the impeachment proceedings.
Now back at the
primaries, Howard Dean’s vitriol spewed in many directions,
including upon the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Dean said
as leader he would fire DNC head, Terry McAuliffe. That was a big
mistake! McAuliffe was Bill and Hillary Clinton’s anointed
choice to head the DNC. Controlling the DNC is paramount to a
Hillary Clinton presidency in 2008. But late in the primaries,
polls showed the popularity of George Bush dropping as fast as the
balance in the national treasury.
Late in the running, a
new face appeared. Bill and Hillary Clinton‘s hand-picked
choice, Gen. Wesley Clark appeared, stumbling to the platform.
Suddenly, CNN/USA Today (two Clinton champions) teamed with Gallup
to produce a new poll. It proclaimed that either Clark or John
Kerry could defeat Bush. Thinking it over, Democrats in the
hinterlands reluctantly set aside their cherished Howard Dean.
They snubbed soldier Wesley Clark, but embraced John Kerry, the
1970’s war-protester. John Kerry may have the personality of
a door knob, but if he can beat George Bush, Democrats decided to
hand him their banner. Riding a titanic wave of boredom, Kerry
surfed the waffling waves of politics. Even big labor and
corporations jumped on his surf board, loaded with bags of
money.
So now we are on our way to the Democratic National
Convention, to the Boston Massacre, where Kerry will knock all his
opponents out of the ring and walk away with the coveted
nomination. Right? No, there are other considerations. Don’t
bet the farm.
First, let’s go back in history.
Democratic Party leaders, after the drubbing of George McGovern
and Walter Mondale, decided they had better give themselves some
voice in picking a candidate. To counter thousands of wild-eyed
delegates from all over the nation, they created a class of
superdelegates. There are some 800 of these superdelegates to curb
the errant ways of the unwashed.
Next July, going into the
convention, John Kerry will carry a large number of delegates
committed to him on the first ballot. But Democratic rules dictate
that any candidate that receives as much as 15% of the votes in
any state, must receive that percentage of votes he/she won in
that primary. Thus, there will be other candidates with votes on
the first ballot. Now enter the superdelagetes, those voting at
the direction of the Party. It just may be possible that Kerry
will not win on the first ballot. If not, it will bring up a
“brokered convention.“ Committed delegates will be
freed to vote for the candidate of their choice. Bill and Hillary
will be watching that voting with high interest. Hillary has never
been known to sit idly by and let things happen by accident. If
the polls show at this point that George Bush is vulnerable,
Hillary may abandon her wait for 2008, and open the door in 2004.
Everyone knows how close Gore came to winning in 2000 and
everyone knows that Hillary will energize far more voters than did
Al Gore. Hillary will light up those blue districts on the map
with enthusiasm. She will even turn some red states that now look
purple, into blue.
Democrats did not want a possum-faced
John Kerry in the first place. They wanted Howard Dean because
they couldn’t have Hillary Clinton. Now, to wild cheering
from the undulating crowd, carrying the superdelegates and the
majority of the others, Hillary strides across the stage and
stands before the microphone. With humility, she reluctantly
accepts the nomination for president of the United States. In the
meantime, rushing through the cheering delegates, Bill is passing
out preprinted “Hillary for President“ signs. There is
tumultuous happiness throughout the throng as well as in the
smoked-filled rooms of power.
The only thing left for
Hillary is to choose her vice president. Should she choose retired
General Wesley Clark to assure Americans in her war against
terror? Or should she choose . . . Bill Clinton, the economic
genius who gave Americans the best economy in history? If poll
numbers show George Bush losing, it is only because Americans are
worried about their pocketbooks. The only choice is Bill
Clinton.
The only thing left to determine: Will Hillary
energize Republican opposition as much as she will energize
Democrat‘s support? If so, Bush still may win.
Likings
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