Episode 1:

Tuesday, September 20th 2005 @ 6:23 AM

Like you, I'm still trying to get a feel for these players, but right off the bat I'm getting good vibes from Brandon and Margaret. Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock in what their outside lives are like and how they will play the game. Many people can easily seperate the two. In fact, I think it's these players that exude viruosity and yet are complete gamers that are truly dangerous. Tina was a middle-aged mom who, in my opinion, is one of the best to ever play. Scout and Twila from Survivor-Vanuatu seem like very honest and decent people and yet were completely cut-throat when they needed to be. Sean Rector - another of my favourite players - (sorry, I need to get a male in here) I believe is an award winning inner-city school teacher and we all saw how he played the game.

Like you, I'm no Stephanie or Bobby Jon fan. I see Bobby Jon as a complete non-entity. I don't even think he has a strategy and although he is committed and tenacious, he doesn't temper that with any degree of moderation. This horse is going to run itself right into the ground and when his tribe no longer see him as an asset, they'll simply cut him loose as he won't have built himself any allies. I agree with you, though; keep him for now. He's such a non-threat.

I see Stephanie as more of a problem. Like you said, she is a reactionary and short-sighted player, but I also see her as part of the reason Ulong suffered such a humiliating defeat. She is a natural leader but won't step up to the plate. Instead, she surrounds herself with people of like mind and targets anyone who smacks of leadership skills. The end result is a listless tribe that is sure to lose challenges. I see her as very dangerous and if I were Yaxha, I would hope to see her gone sooner rather than later. The problem is people like and respect her and anyone who proposes getting rid of her is likely to find themselves on the short end of a very pointed stick.

My hopes for Yaxha are not high.

I think the key to this season is going to be in dissecting the Nakum tribe, especially the group of Brandon, Brooke, Cindy, Danni, Judd and Margaret. I'm not saying these six are an alliance (it's too big a group), but I think our dominant group will fall out of here. I for one will be watching these six very closely the next couple of eps trying to make the connections.

Episode 2:

Friday, September 23rd 2005 @ 10:50 AM

I have to admit, I was rather impressed with Yaxha's pick. I think Morgan was the right call. Tribe moral is far more important that a slight edge in physicallity. I liked the way Jamie got completely shut down when he proposed Stephanie and I liked the way Stephanie talked about nothing but what would make the tribe stronger.

The back and forth regarding Lydia and Morgan I found illuminating because it gave us an insight as to who cares about whom. Brian seems attached to Lydia and wasn't it Brianna that told Stephanie that she was a talked about target? I might not have paid enough attention, and I didn't tape the show, so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but it struck me that Rafe was more in the booting Lydia camp. I'm wondering if perhaps he, Jamie and Morgan were beginning to come together but weren't about to stick their necks out for her in the way Brian did for Lydia. Gary seemed in the middle of all discussions and Amy certainly wasn't too far behind.

At the same time, though the leader, Gary seems a little isolated from most of his team mates. Perhaps it's his personality, perhaps he's seen as a threat, or perhaps it's his big lie that is causing this, but I definitely see him as someone who is on the outside of any central alliance but is being kept for his leadership skills. A good idea by the way.

I think Lydia did good job steering the vote away, but I worry she's not enough of a gamer to turn the direction of the game. I see her as a passive-predictable type but she is going to need to be more aggressive if she is going to survive.

Stephanie as well seems to be on the outside, but it's so hard to tell. Brian/Amy/Gary perhaps bringing in Lydia as a fourth? Hard to say. Rafe strikes me as aggressive so he'll likely try and work his way into any alliance. Rafe/Brian/Amy/Gary or maybe throw out Gary and put in Lydia or Brianna? Is Rafe and Jamie tight? Did anyone catch how the groups were breaking up during all those post immunity challenge discussions?

Sorry, a lot of thinking out loud here.

I still think Yaxha is the weaker of the two tribes between the ears and it showed during the immunity challenge. The whole running and tackling your opponent makes no sense and Judd from Nakum certainly outwitted Jamie (though perhaps that wasn't such and accomplishment.

I found it interesting what a small part Bobby Jon played in the two challenges. He went first in the reward challenge (again, not using his head and swinging only by his arms) and then didn't go again (instead Blake went twice) and not doing any of the individual pulling during the immunity challenge (Brandon one, Judd twice). I don't think this was through a lack of determination from BJ but rather his tribe shutting him down somewhat. I really think that BJ's chances of making the merge are infinitesmal. I think his tribe is realizing that he just doesn't bring that much to the table.

The social make-up of Nakum is tough, though I think BJ and Blake are completely issolated from the rest. Brandon and Judd seem close (at least Judd seems close to Brandon), it's how the women fit in that is going to be important, but I haven't gotten any feel for Brooke, Cindy or Danni. Margarett seems like a tough woman but she is spending so much time caring for the injured that I wonder if she is also playing the game. My gut says that she is, but I don't know. Nakum had an easy boot in Jim, so we'll have to see what happens the next time the chips are down.

Either way, my pick is still for Nakum to finish on top. I think they are both smarter and stronger and it seems the editors are playing the alliances in that tribe a little closer to their chests (usually a good sign). My favourite players are still Brandon and Margaret.

Sunday, September 25th 2005 @ 6:59 PM

[quote]And I still believe Brandon (followed by Judd) are the 2 safest people in the game for now with how sick the guys have gotten in Nakum. [/quote]

Man, if Nakum boot any of those two guys then they deserve to go down in flames. The only way I see either of them not making the merge is for Nakum to go south fast or if they get screwed over in a player swap. There wasn't a swap in Palau, so I think the chances are good.

I think Rafe is an interesting player. He first struck me as someone who was going to play too hard at the beginning but his comments regarding having to beat Nakum were spot on. I got the feeling things didn't quite turn the way he wanted this week but he seemed to land on his feet admirably. I agree that Gary isn't going to turn out to be much of a player and if Amy goes down next week (yet, how often do the previews actually show us anything relevant?), Rafe might just find himself sitting fairly pretty. The other thing that I found interesting was that Rafe completely sucked at the reward challenge (he stuck out far more than Lydia) yet his name didn't appear to come up at all when the tribe was deciding who should go. He may have quite a number of pieces in play right now.

Episode 3:

Friday, September 30th 2005 @ 11:51 AM

Well, we agree again with the boot. I think they made the right choice too. This, of course, begs the question, what's wrong with Yaxha?

These guys and girls are not a typical disfunctional tribe: Maraamu, Samburu, Lopevi, Sook Jai, Ulong & Ogakor (at least the start). It's easy to see why these tribes went into the dumper, but Yaxha is at least trying to do things right - maybe they all learned something from Koror.

The thing is, it's not working. There not gelling as well as Nakum. I know the physicallity was mentioned, but I don't think that's the biggest reason. Heck, when Rafe/Brian/Jamie were up against Brandon/Judd/Blake, they won two out of three. At the very least, they were holding their own. I do think Nakum is just a little smarter than Yaxha and I'll pick brains over braun everytime.

I think the biggest issue comes down to one of leadership. Gary is the obvious leader but I don't think he is rallying the troups as much as he can. Perhaps his deception over being an ex-NFL quarterback is hurting him or perhaps his team has him up there as a figure head with the full plan of taking him down. This has been done before with Rupert (Pearl Islands) and Tom (Palau) being obvious examples but both those tribes kicked as because of it. For whatever reason, Gary doesn't seem to be having the same effect.

I also think part of the problem is Stephanie. She was so negative, not only in her confessionals but also at tribal council, basically complaining about how much better the other tribe is. Does she think that helps? As the only veteran of this game in her tribe, they do look at her for guidance and if she is this down around camp, no wonder her tribes a losers.

And let's put this into perspective, they're only down one player and it's very eearly in the game. Richard, Tina, Ethan, Vecepia and Brian were in this position or worse at this stage of the game. That's half the winners, but if you listen to Yaxha, especially Stephanie talk, they sound like they've already lost the game.

Just my take on alliances thus far.

I really think the dominant four in Yaxha are now Greg [Gary], Brian, Amy and Lydia (not necessarily in that order). Rafe, I think, was more in with Jamie and Briana, but that has fallen apart. I think both Rafe and Jamie are playing up to the dominant group as is Stephanie. I still do think that Greg [Gary] is more of a figurehead than a game leader, which leaves the question who is the dominant pair? Lydia and Brian? I have the feeling that this may turn out to be irrelevant anyway.

Nakum is much tougher. I think you are right on Margaret now. The whole micro-managing of the tarp showed me I overestimated her. She was so confident in her element when folks were ill, but now she is less comfortable. I'm still very high on Brandon and Judd seems definitely in with him. Blake I think is nowhere, Bobby Jon is likely sitting higher than him. Danni, I think, is very shrewd but I'm not getting any kind of read on Brooke or Cindy. It's really hard to pull out a dominant four, but I suspect there has to be one by now.

Saturday, October 1st 2005 @ 8:24 AM

Yeah, I meant Gary. I reread what I wrote yesterday. There's more than just a few typos and brain farts. Sorry, busy day.

The Gary/Amy/Brian/Lydia thing is really based on little more than me watching them when they're lazying about. I watched yesterday with a pad of paper and drew arrows connecting people. I do this when nothing of consequence is going on, not when CBS is trying to drive a particular plot point.

I think you are right, things are very fluid and, if Yaxha keeps losing members, will become largely irrelevant anyway. I'm not saying in any way that I think those four will be the last Yaxha standing, too many things may still happen, but I do believe final four plans are being made in both tribes.

I agree with your take on the dominant people in Nakum, Brandon, Danni and one UTR girl and Brooke does seem to be annoying people less than Cindy. I also agree that Blake and BJ are out, it remains to see how the rest fit in. I do believe alliances and plans have been made, they just haven't been put to the test yet.

If there is a swap next week it may be very illuminating, especially if players have some control over the make-up of the new tribes.

Episode 4:

Friday, October 7th 2005 @ 8:10 AM

Like you both said, but come-on Ajv, you knew it wasn't going to last. Unfortunately, I can't help but think we have more stupidity for the next little bit and then we'll just have to see what pieces are left after the merge.

As for groupings. Judd is surely on the outs - he's done. I would put the dominant four of the old Nakums as Brandon/Dani/Margaret/Cindy. My pick for the dominant duo in the group to be Brandon and Dani or perhaps Brandon and Margaret (my first guess from ep 1).

With the old Yaxhas it's Brian/Lydia/Gary/Amy with Rafe tagging as a fifth wheel. Dominant pair: Brian and Lydia. Again, all guesses and obviously we'll have to see who makes the merge but if either of these two groups makes the merge intact, I would guess they will immediately pull together and be the dominant group.

As for the new Yaxhas (Brandon/Dani/Blake/BJ) to begin throwing challenges. Abso-friggin-lutely! So should Stephani/Jamie/Lydia/Rafe, but that is unlikely to happen (though it certainly would be comical).

My arguments are here -> http://geocities.datacellar.net/hcisland/idiocy.htm

One thing seems likely, it's gonna get ugly for a bit.

Monday, October 10th 2005 @ 6:24 PM

Like most of you, I was shaking my head at Judd but in his defence he is in a bit of a damned if he did damned if he didn't situation. Rmax at Votedoff stated that likely stood pretty low in the pecking order anyway, so he likely didn't have much to lose much so he might as well clutch at the straw Stephanie and Jamie were throwing his way. - Perhaps that's true.

What's kind of interesting about how the tribes split up is that it seems most of the power players (Brandon, Danni, Gary, Amy, Brian) are all in one tribe while most of the tertiary players ended up back at Nakum. The numbers in Yaxha seem to indicate that Gary's and Amy's days are numbered which works to a little Judd's favour because it puts players like Stephanie and Jamie into more of a powerful position. The problem is that he really needs the power players in his own tribe gone but they appear to be out of his reach.

So his best hope is probably to have his tribe win a bunch of challenges, see Gary, Amy and hopefully Brian gone so that Stephanie and company will need his help after the merge. The thing is, they are going to have a tough time pulling together the numbers over Brandon and company. Probably the player he most needs to get rid of in his own tribe is Margaret (who seems the most loyal to the old Nakums), but I don't think he realizes that.

Episode 5:

Friday, October 14th 2005 @ 10:10 AM

One thing that is different between Danni's and Judd's flip is that Danni might have BJ in her corner and that could be a big thing come the merge (if they make it that far). Obviously my thought that Danni was in Brandon's alliance was wrong and I'm starting to come to the conclusion that Nakum isn't playing the alliance game at all. Danni's comments on the Survivor Insider (my wife e-mailed them to me today) seems to confirm this. It suggests that not only did BJ know about Blake but so did Brandon.

My guess is that the old Nakum's are going to end up being pawns in Yaxha's games of power. If that is the case, my money's on Brian whose definitely shown the most skill in this game thus far.

I'll post what my wife sent me next.

Here is a Danni confessional.

Backstabber
-----------

Description: Fed up with Blake's irritating stories, Danni explains why she turned against her tribemate.

(Confessional) Danni: Well when we got back from the immunity challenge, immidiately we just started talking. Everybody's pretty much on the same page, we all kind of decided Blake needs to go home. Only problem Brandon and BobbyJon actually have already given him his word that they wouldn't vote for him, and so, it kind of comes down to my vote. And, they all agree that he needs to go they just don't want to look bad, obviously, which I totally understand, so I said I'd go ahead and vote - cause I'd never promised him that I would never write his name down or anything, so

(Cut)

Blake needs to go home, because, ugh, he's irritating everybody. Obviously you want to keep a person who's good in challenges, smart, and Blake is, but it can also turn the team down, having him around camp, and irritating everybody. With all his stories, and everything's about partying, and the alcohol, ugh, it's really wearing on some of our team members, so um I think it's just the best decision that he goes home, and plus, I think there's people that deserve a better shot at winning the whole thing than he does. So, I think it's just fair to give them that shot.

(Cut)

The hard part about voting Blake out is that he is so good at challenges, and that is so important, but physically we still really match up against the other team, against uh Nakum, but as you can see that doesn't always turn out to be the case, strategy plays more of an important role. It's just when you have to live with someone everyday, eat, sleep, drink with these people, you need someone who keeps the morale around camp up, and he doesn't, so that was pretty much the deciding factor, he was really starting to irritate everyone.

(Cut)

I think Blake might even have an idea that something's going on, cause he's been quiet. He keeps asking me "is it going to be Brian, is it Brian", and I'm like, "uh, Brandon said, yeah, Brian", cause I think that's who Brandon's putting down, cause I was trying to skirt around it so I didn't have to lie to him.

(Cut)

Well, um, the original four Nakum members, the ones that have the tight bond are BobbyJon, Brandon, and myself, the three of us, and Blake is kind of the odd man out. But, coming into this, you automatically think they're going to be against you, you're going to be against them, but, I really trust Gary's word, and that he hasn't really started any alliances over there, and that he's in with us, so, you know, I have to trust that, and sometimes it bites ya in the butt in this game but, you know, you gotta take your chances.

Sunday, October 16th 2005 @ 5:02 PM

[quote]You make a valid point that Danni may have Bobby Jon & Brandon in her corner. It convinces me that *if* old Nakum comes out on top post-merge, she still has a shot. [/quote]

You seem to think that's a big if. I gotta agree. Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I thought that Danni made a good move, just that she sits in a better position than Judd. It's hard to invision the old Yaxha's not ending up on top at the merge. We've got three boots left until the traditional merge with old Nakums being likely boots in both camps. We don't know what kind of brain cramps may occur to the old Yaxhas, but they certainly should make sure that old Nakum doesn't become a factor in the middle-game.

It looks like I over-rated Brandon. It appears he knew that Blake was on the way out but didn't make any agressive promises to earn Danni's loyalty (at least, we weren't shown any). I'm sad that Blake was a player that was that so close to Brandon. Blake is just the perfect person to ride fifth or sixth in a tribe to be dispossed of later. A player like Danni would have been one of the ones I would have been recruiting, but I'm not convinced anyone in Nakum as doing any agressive recruiting. Oh well ...

Episode 6:

Friday, October 21st 2005 @ 11:17 AM

Nice analysis Andrew, but I gotta go with Abstract on this one. Margaret was the most loyal to old Nakum and the biggest threat come a post merge. I also agree that Danni would have likely flipped if forced with the tie vote. At the very least force the tie and revote to see how far the other side is willing to go. Personally, I don't think the fear of a tie was the only reason Gary flipped. I think Brian started talking like a gamer and Gary felt, sorry, I don't want to play that way. I think we have a tremendous amount of wishy-washy players this time that are just voting with their conscience rather than their brains.

Brian's biggest mistake might have been the assumption that the others are there to play a game. It seems to me that most of them are not, making this a pretty lame season to date.

Just to revisit this (not that I think this should [will] happen) but Brandon, Danni and BJ should throw the next challenge and get Gary's butt out of there before the merge. The funny thing is, if new Nakum loses the next challenge, they may just vote out their resisdent chump in Judd doing old Nakum a big favour. Brandon would go into the likely merge with Danni, BJ and Cindy which may be the most solid foursome left as I don't think Gary and Amy have any strong connection with Stephanie and Jamie. With so many weak and unpredictable players around, this is still very much anyone's game.

Friday, October 21st 2005 @ 3:32 PM

If converting an old Nakum wasn't in the cards, I'll agree that Gary and Amy did the right thing, especially if Brian had other allies in the other camp (very likely) that might have Gary and Amy lower on the totem come the merge.

I just found it wierd how someone like Danni can vote out Blake without seeing this tie coming. I would assume that if you made the decision to screw over your tribe, that you were prepared to go all the way (ala Judd). I immediately assumed Danni was would have been in with Gary and crew but perhaps that was wrong. She simply may not be thinking that far ahead.

I wonder if Brandon had a talk with Danni and BJ because, you're right, they seem suddenly very tight. Maybe he informed them that there was a game going on and that they best start playing.

Saturday, October 22nd 2005 @ 11:08 AM

How everyone should play in new Yaxha is all dependent upon how likely it would have been to sway someone to your camp, and that is so tough to call from where we sit. Regardless, I do think targeting Brian was definitely the best call from the Brandon/Danni/BJ camp, not because they saw him as a weak link (certainly his performances in challenges doesn't earn him that label) but because he is easily the best player out of the old Yaxha trio. Brian has friends in both camps and would be exceedingly dangerous come the merge.

Rafe/Stephanie/Lydia/Jamie are definitely sitting in the best position. Heck, Gary and/or Amy could still easily not make the merge if Yaxha loses another challenge or two. I agree with Abstract that Rafe and Lydia may be sitting in the best spot. With old Yaxha (+ Judd) likely coming out on top come the merge, its how they play that will determine the course of this thing. If they reunify and begin pagonging then it is obvious bad news for old Nakum, but if they split into a series of pairs: Stephanie/Jamie, Rafe/Lydia, Gary/Amy; it could make this game wide open.

Thursday, October 27th 2005 @ 6:51 AM

I have to agree that, right now, Rafe would seem to be the best pick. Good player (perhaps best left in the game), in the tribe almost sure to be in the majority with allies on both sides of the old Yaxha camp. Outside of Lydia, I don't have any faith in the other old Yaxhas having the gameplay to pull this thing off.

If it ain't Rafe-Lydia, I would have to go with something strange happening after the merge with the old Yaxhas splitting into two camps allowing the old Nakums to get a hold of the game again. If that were to happen, my money would be on Brandon.

So there you go. My picks, in order: Rafe, Lydia, Brandon.

Now watch them be the next three boots. :-?

Episode 7:

Friday, October 28th 2005 @ 11:24 AM

Just a quick comment. Is anyone else finding this season a boring as I am? Usually by this stage I've picked my player to root for, but this year I can't get much behind any of them. Their play is just so lame.

Have fun at your sessions Ajv. Is this one of those chart paper/coloured markers type of thing were folks throw around the latest in BS vocubulary? I hate those. I remember going to one seminar where I immediately knew I made a mistake when I saw construction paper, paper, scissors markers and yarn on each of the tables for us to make name tags with. Man I wanted to bolt for the door. Thankfully, a bunch of us began using fictious names to pass the time.

Episode 8:

Saturday, November 5th 2005 @ 7:19 PM

My take is only slightly different. If you don't mind, I'm going to use my own terminology from my website (http://geocities.datacellar.net/hcisland/).

N-players (tier 1): Stephanie & Jamie
D-players (tier 2): Judd and maybe Rafe
T-players (tier 3): Lydia, Cindy and maybe Rafe
M-players (tier 4): Gary, Dani, Brandon, BJ

I'm more inclined to put Rafe in the T-player group, not so much because Stephanie and Jamie hold him in a lower position than Judd (I actually suspect the opposite) but because I don't think he has any intention of sticking with the dominant duo.

All told, I think the right call was made by the various players. Brandon, I think, is a little bit (just a little though) of a better player than BJ which makes him a fine pick. BJ would have been fine too. I think it's splitting hairs between the two.

I'll go with how I think the game should play out from here in my next post.

First off, I don't think Stephanie, Jamie and Judd have anywhere near the where-for-all to pull this thing off. I suspect that both Judd and Stephanie have gone up to Jamie promising final two, which is likely behind his over-the-top cockiness. The thing is, having someone like that in your alliance only increases the chances of it coming down and I can't imagine that there won't be a coup attempt with Jamie as the target soon after BJ is voted out.

I would pick Rafe with close pal Lydia as being the primary coupees. They obviously feel comfortable in their game and, even more telling, so does Cindy. The thought of joining up with her old team-mates didn't even seemed to occur to her. She's either colossally stupid (certainly a possibility) or she's got a decent deal with someone - final three?

One more post just to lay out the bumps in the road Rafe and company may just encounter on their road to victory.

Jamie's asinine behaviour seemed to have Rafe already thinking about pulling the trigger, and can't say as I blame him. Games are supposed to be fun and watching a game run be the particular trio on top now is far from that. I can't even imagine what it is like to live with these guys.

The immunity argument to get rid of Brandon and BJ doesn't hold water for Rafe and company, as Jamie and Judd (not to mention Stephanie) are at least the same threat, but what would have stopped me from writting down Jamie's name would have been Cindy. Rafe needs Cindy to play the third role and the best way to make sure she does that is to limit her options. Keeping players like Brandon in the game doesn't do that.

So it seems Rafe and Lydia have things set up pretty nice. Not quite. Their Achilles Heal may easily turn out to be an inability to win immunity challenges.

Let's say they get rid of BJ next, then Jamie and say Judd. Here's your final six: Rafe, Lydia, Cindy, Gary, Danni and Stephanie. With that mix, Gary, Stephanie and even Danni have a good chance of putting together an immunity run. Even without that, at least one of those three have to make the final four and the wrong person winning immunity at that stage could prove fatal for Rafe and Lydia. Most previous juries have respected the players of the game over the folks that win immunity challenges, but I think this jury will likely pick the immunity challenge winners.

This is still very much anyone's game and I'm just not getting those winner vibes from either Rafe or Lydia. At this stage, if I were to lean anywhere it would be towards Stephanie or Gary.

Monday, November 7th 2005 @ 10:03 AM

Also, who is in each tier depends a lot upon who's perspective you are looking at things from. Stephanie may see the final four as her, Jamie, Rafe and Lydia; Jamie may see it has himself, Stephanie, Judd and Rafe; while for Rafe it could be himself, Lydia, Cindy and Gary. Then again, maybe not.

For me, this is most certainly the toughest season to unwrap, mostly because I think the players themselves have been very hesitate to commit themselves to a particular path. But, I always start my Survivor totem by asking myself, who is the pair on top? Right now, to me, it seems most likely to Stephanie and Jamie. I then ask who is supporting them and the only solid support I see is Judd which is what is leading me to the conclusion that there is a coup a-brewin'. Well that and the extremely negative edit Jamie is getting.

But certainly, anything can still happen including a very lame set of pagongings which will may leave Stephanie and Jamie our final two.

Tuesday, November 8th 2005 @ 9:47 AM

I pretty much agree with the takes above. Your last point, AM, I think emphasizes how likely immunity is going to be in determining the outcome of this game. If Rafe and Lydia are running the show, they have no choice but to have some strong immunity contenders around (much stronger than the them) and that could seriously hamper their ability to run the game.

I agree as well that Jamie's decision between Stephanie or Judd pretty much defines the dominant duo right now and it's tough to call which way he is leaning - he may not have even decided at this stage. The thing is, I suspect it will become irrelevant anyway if there is a coup.

I also gotta say that I was disappointed (once again) in BJ and Brandon taking Stephanie's word that Jamie was going. Why do players in the minority always buy what the dominant players are selling? It makes no sense! Clearly, Stephanie has too much invested in Jamie to backstab him now. Stephanie, Jamie and Judd are not the tickets for the Yaxhas. It's players like Rafe, Lydia and Cindy they need to work on.

It's just so sadly typical.

Thursday, November 10th 2005 @ 6:44 AM

I had one of those thoughts in the shower moments that was inspired by a conversation with my wife last night regarding editting, Abastract's comment that he was glad to see Gary talking with Rafe, and Andrew's feeling that Rafe is sitting higher than my rankings would indicate. I've thought for some time that one of the best ways to figure out who the dominant players are is by watching who the tertiary players suck up to. Perhaps the pair isn't Stephanie and Jamie, but Stephanie and Rafe (I think I hear some "well, duhs!" coming from the audience).

This jives with Gary's behaviour as well as our observations of the preswap Yaxha that had both Rafe and Stephanie to the periphery of power, behind folks like Gary, Amy and Brian. I was thrown off by Jamie's cockiness which seems to have him placed high but this could simply be a result of him being played well by others. Rafe may be in a bit of a Tina roll with Jamie playing the part of Jerri.

New divisions.

N-players: Rafe & Stephanie
D-players: Lydia (maybe Gary)
T-players: Judd & Jamie
M-players: Cindy, BJ & Dani

As you can see, I suspect the old tribal lines are still there (more or less) under the surface.

The thing to notice, especially if Gary is in the top-four alliance, is that this is Rafe's crew, not Stephanie's. If Jamie and Judd do not make the final four, Stephanie has voted out her only lines of support leaving a group that leans towards Rafe.

The reason I compared this to Survivor-Australia is that this is very similar to the Tina-Colby situation where none of the players that were leaning Colby's way made the final four. It was Tina's alliance in the end.

This would be an awesome alliance for Rafe. It limits the problem of him being a poor immunity contender as he is closely allied with a strong contender. If Stephanie wins challenges, it is unlikely to throw a wrench into Rafe's plans.

This would increase Rafe's stock in this game dramatically. Not so much because of the mitigation of the immunity problem, but because it takes Rafe out of the role of a tertiary player. Tertiary players have a very poor performance record in final twos: MamaKim, Neleh, Amazon Matt, Lillian, Twila. The only exception to the rule is Tom from Palua but he would be a rare bread of what I call a tertiary leader (a player running the show that folks are planning to turn on). The only other T-Leader to make the jury would be Rupert in Pearl Island's (certainly not in All-Star). Tom had the respect of his tribe-mates, most T-players certainly don't (it's the usually the big reason as to why they are T-players in the first place), hence when they make the jury, even when they played well (Neleh, Twila) they tend to get raked over the coals by the sore losers.

Being a top dog, largely removes this issue for Rafe, especially if he's beside a player like Lydia or even Stephanie who seems to be annoying a good part of the perspective jurors and could give an abysmal performance in the final two.

Potential Bumps: I'd say the biggest one is Stephanie doing what Colby should have back when he voted out Keith instead of Tina when he won the final immunity challenge. It's a distinct possibility and his best defence would be to continue to keep up Stephanie's ego (which shouldn't be a problem) and to downplay his own. It seems to me, he might be doing exactly that.

Friday, November 11th 2005 @ 8:26 AM

You are very possibly right. It may be closer to what I oringinally thought and like you posted above.

I think what makes this tough is that not many of these players are thinking too far down the road (Rafe perhaps being the only exception).

I was thinking that what may be telling is if/when Jamie does go, what way does Steph vote, but I don't think it will tell us much of anything anymore. Will she help vote Jamie out because she is in tight with Rafe or is she simply not thinking ahead and voting him out because she is sick of him.

I can't tell anymore.

The two models I'm bouncing between are ...

Steph<=>Judd<-Jamie (like you have above) with Rafe, Lydia and Cindy bringing up the rear. Steph may figure she can afford to get rid of Jamie and she may be right. His unpredictability is making him of little use.

Or is it ...

Judd->Steph<=>Rafe<-Lydia backed up by Jamie and Cindy. This situation begs for Jamie to be voted out soon but it also doesn't prevent Rafe from prunning away Judd as well.

Either way, Rafe seems to be the one with a lot of options.

Episode 9:

Tuesday, November 15th 2005 @ 9:47 AM

I think we are all very close on the alliance thing. I'm kinda along the these lines for the dominant six - I hope this makes sense.

(Judd->Steph<=>Rafe<-Lydia)<= dominant four
^ ^
(Jamie Cindy)<= tertiary players

I think Stephanie is going to make the mistake of having Jamie going out first out of this six, which shifts the power over to Rafe (similar to Jerri and Amber going shifting the power to Tina in Australia). I guess the real question for me is, when will Jamie get the boot?

Right now it's six against two so Stephanie may feel comfortable enough removing Jamie next as the immunity argument to get rid of Gary before Jamie doesn't hold water. Ditching Jamie next wouldn't be the mistake for Stephanie, it's ditching him period that's the mistake.

The thing is, I can't shake the feeling that Jamie's days are coming quickly to an end while Gary is still around for a bit yet. This is based purely on editting, but Gary's story still seems to have a few pages left while Jamie's is all but done.

Sorry, the lining up didn't work. Jamie was supposed to be pointing to Steph while Cindy was pointing to Rafe.

I agree with Andrew that Rafe is the player to beat here. I hope he wins because everyone else bugs the hell out of me.

Tuesday, November 15th 2005 @ 1:53 PM

If I were forced to guess I would say that Lydia has reservations about voting out Jamie. She's probably uncomfortable with voting out a tribemate before the other tribe is completely gone. Steph and Rafe are likely using the immunity strength argument (Jamie did win the last one, right?) and Lydia, being what Andrew would call a Passive-Predictable, doesn't like this whole backstabbing stuff. In the end, being passive and predictable, she'll take the path of least resistance and do whatever Steph and Rafe tell her to do.

Then again, it could be about nothing to do with nothing. Goodness knows previews usually hype up something that has nothing to do with what is going on in the game anyway.

Episode 10:

Friday, November 18th 2005 @ 12:04 PM

As far as the Judd [Jamie] vote, I really do think the guy was losing it. When I looked at those eyes during the final TC, I would have been afraid to be sleeping in the same hut as the guy. That colours everything so I can't blame people for dropping strategy to get rid of someone who was clearly creeping them out.

That said, this works perfectly into Rafe's hand. I do think that the original, final four, alliance going into the merge was Jamie, Lydia, Stephanie & Rafe but Jamie just freaked himself right out of the final four. Judd seemed to take Jamie's place for a time, but he may be on a similar path as Jamie and be replaced by Cindy. That Judd wasn't in the loop in last night's vote but Cindy was is significant.

If the final four alliance turns out to be Rafe, Lydia, Stephanie and Cindy it is most clearly Rafe's crew, not Stephanie's. In fact, Stephanie might see an F4 or F3 target drift her way.

Sorry, in the first paragraph of the last post I was talking about Jamie, not Judd.

Gary's proposal of a four player alliance between himself, Stephanie, Judd and Danni would actually be a great move on Stephanie's part, though not for the reasons Gary was mentioning. Stephanie had a golden boy ready to support her to the end in Judd, but I don't think she recongnized his value, while Gary and Danni have both shown that they will cave and flip sides when the pressure is on. If this were the final four there is little question that Stephanie and Judd could choose who would go at four and three barring the wrong player winning immunity. Stephanie should go for this, but I don't think she will because she values the wrong things in players and doesn't preceive the threat that is represented by Rafe and Lydia.

The next couple of boots will be interesting. I think the Rafe/Stephanie/Lydia alliance should get back on track and get rid of Gary next just to remove an aggressive immunity contender and which would make handling passive-predictables like Cindy and Danni easier. The thing is, if Judd goes all psycho on them, they may figure they can afford to get rid of him first. I don't think this is a serious error (from Rafe/Lydia's prespective) as long as Stephanie sticks with them (which I think she will).

The biggest issue, for me, in letting Gary get to F6 is if he wins an immunity challenge or two after that. I'd want Gary gone next.

I don't know if Rafe would think this aggresively, but the thought of getting rid of Stephanie before F4 may be tempting. The thing is, I would hate even the possibility of going into F5 with Gary, Danni and Cindy still in the mix. It almost begs the three of them to get together. I don't even like the possibility of having both Danni and Cindy in the final four on the off chance that they do the right thing and force a tie.

Even with Lydia, Rafe still needs Stephanie to come with him into the endgame.

Friday, November 18th 2005 @ 6:58 PM

Agreed Abstract. Steph needs to get rid of Rafe, but she doesn't see it. Unpredictable players like Jamie and Judd are assets to minority players like Gary and Danni, but they don't see that.

I also agree that each of these players see the alliances differently. I think Stephanie sees herself in a final two deal Rafe, but Rafe could easily be planning to be across from Lydia in the end. I don't know, but I think Steph would be far better off pairing with Judd as he is the man with fewer options.

On the side, I didn't know you were a Diplomacy player. I used to play in school and for the last decade or so I've run Diplomacy games at the high schools I've taught at. I used to run a variant called Chaos Diplomacy in which around two dozen players or so each start with one unit and play until one of them has eighteen. Man, if that wasn't like Survivor, I don't know what was.

One thing Diplomacy teaches you about Survivor is that alliances are about mutual self-interest, not weak promises that are destined to be broken. You've got to have the ability to see things from other player's points of view and ally yourself with those with few options. Rafe is definitely not that person.

Saturday, November 19th 2005 @ 11:00 AM

[quote]That's why it eats me up so much when I hear people talking about who "deserves" to not be voted out etc.[/quote]

Ditto. I don't like the moral implication behinds statements like that. Sure there are players that dog it in challenges and around camp, but let's look at the players that are left in this game. Why does Gary "deserve" to be there more than say, Lydia. Because he's stronger? more athletic? What kind of justification is that? Lydia seems to contribute as much around camp as anyone and certainly gives her all in challenges. It isn't her fault that she's the only middle-aged woman left in the game. If anything, it's a testiment to her staying power. Gary pulled out the same line when he turned on Brian. Brian was playing a different style of game than Gary (better IMHO) but I don't see how that means he "deserves" to be voted out.

I'm on a bit of a posting spree mood, so I'll keep going. I hope no one minds.

Three more boots and we will be in the endgame of Survivor - the final four. Everyone should be thinking at this point of what kind of position could they realistically strive to achieve for the endgame, and then shoot for it. Strategically, final fours should almost always be tied votes (somewhere on my webpage I have the numerical evidence behind this statement) but we all know that rarely happens. There's almost always the pair that is bound and determined to stick together while the other two players turn on each other to avoid the tie. You want to be in the first group and that means being paired with someone that you can be confident will stick with you.

Ideally, you would also like this person to be someone you feel you can beat in the final two. Contrary to what the show tries to make us believe (and probably what the players believe themselves), juries don't vote based upon who played the best game or who is their better friend, but upon tribal social standing. Looking back over previous final two votes bares this out. Amber of Rob is the obvious aberation but there were things going on in All-Star that wouldn't happen in any other season.

This is how I would rank the five player alliance according to social standing.

-Rafe, Stephanie
-Lydia
-Judd, Cindy

Minority players like Gary and Danni are tough to place. Both times a minority player made the final two, they've won (Vecepia and Chris), but both times they were against tertiary players from the dominant tribe. I think it's safe to place them above the tertiary players and, frankly, I would place them just below the dominant duo with Gary ahead of Danni (Gary is certainly a leader, Danni a follower). So ...

- Rafe, Stephanie
- Gary
- Danni
- Lydia
- Judd, Cindy

Any player above a particular player will likely beat them in the final two vote. Players at the same level are likely to produce close votes that are tough to call.

So here are the goals for each player. These goals are hierarchal, by which a mean that you shouldn't move on to the next goal until you feel you have locked down the previous one.

1. Make the final four.
2. Be in the dominant pair in the final four.
3. Have the opposite member of the pair be someone you can beat in the final two.

In my next post, I'll work down the list and see how each player is doing in achieving these goals and, perhaps, what they can do to improve their position.

Rafe: I think the path of least resistance sees Gary, Judd and Danni being the next three boots leaving a final four of Rafe, Stephanie, Lydia and Cindy. I don't think Rafe could have it any better, though how he plays it from here depends upon his relationship with Stephanie and Lydia. Both are likely supporting him. Lydia would almost surely take him into the final two if the decision were hers, but would Steph? If Steph won the final immunity challenge, might she take Lydia thinking (correctly) that she would beat her in the final vote? I'm not sure. Should Rafe risk tweaking a final four that already looks pretty good by maybe replacing Stephanie with Danni? He would have to get rid of Gary and Judd before such a move can even be considered but would Danni and Cindy help to get rid of Steph at F5? Probably, but there is the risk of the two of them doing the right thing and finking him out to Stephanie and the three of them voting him out. Any strategy that hindges on your opponent not realizing the right thing to do should be avoided if at all possible. Even at four, would Danni help vote out Cindy or vice versa? Again probably, but there is more of a risk of a tie here than in the Rafe/Steph/Lydia/Cindy final four.

No, all and all the risks outweigh the dubious gain of having Steph not in the final four. For now, Rafe should stick with her. Targeting Judd next would be a risk as Steph may catch wind and consider her options with Gary and company. The safe route is sometimes the obvious one and when you have it good you should play it safe. Boot Gary next, then Judd. At six, Steph has no more power because Cindy and likely Danni will be all over getting rid of Judd if it means they get a step closer to the final four.

So for now, Rafe's decisions are fairly easy. His tough ones are coming in the endgame. Boot Steph at four, three or ride with her into the final two and plead your case to the jury?

Stephanie: She probably has the toughest call right now over any other player. Her position isn't as good as Rafe's but it sure as heck isn't bad. If she can trust Rafe, the two of them can probably ride this thing right into the final two where she stands a decent chance at winning.

Of course, the key question is can she trust Rafe? And the ace that Rafe has firmly in his hand is Lydia and it would be tempting for any good player to play it. Getting rid of Lydia before the final two would be ideal but I don't see a lot of hope that Stephanie could drum up the support to get rid of this inocuous player. Even if the other players were an aggressive lot, suggesting getting rid of Lydia while keeping Rafe, is pretty much saying I want Rafe to myself and players aren't going to help just refine her dominant alliance while they remain in supporting positions.

No, if she wants to take Rafe out of the driver's seat, her only option is completely turning this game on its ear. She has the advantage of Judd who will likely ride this thing out to the end but if she doesn't deal with Rafe now, Rafe will be able to get rid of Judd at will once they are at six players. The time has to be now and her only option along these lines is to take Gary's proposal: her, Judd, Gary and Danni as the final four.

Now don't dismiss this immediately as this is a good final four for Stephanie, likely better than the one that Rafe has in mind. Judd will almost has to stick with her because he has no other options while Gary and Danni have shown themselves to cave easily once the pressure is on. They won't force a tie. So from the list of the three goals mentioned above, this meets the first two.

The question is, does it meet the third? Would Stephanie beat Judd in the final two? My first response would be, yes of course, I mean, just look at my list :-); but one can't ignore what effect a coup will have on the jury. Juries have not been kind to people turning on those they preceived to be in their alliance, and those pulling the coup have always been always been tertiary players who clearly were not slotted to make the final four. How would the jury react to someone who (from their perspective) is sitting, at worst, second in an alliance turning on the player who might be first?

Turning on Rafe now would be a risk, but so is riding it out with him. The question is, which is bigger and that call really can on be made on "the ground" and hindges on how much Stephanie can trust Rafe. The one thing is, if the next boot is not Rafe, then Stephanie is left with little option but to ride it out with him and hope he doesn't stab her in the end.

One final thought that probably tips the scale towards Stephanie just riding it out with Rafe is that right now we have ourselves a relatively quite game and the leaders should usually want to keep it that way. Teaming up with Gary and company steps up the aggression level and leave players upon to ideas that they may have simply not considered before. For example, Gary and Danni could bring in Cindy and boot Stephanie and Judd at five. Is is likely, probably not, but it is a possibility that isn't really there if Stephanie just plays it cool and rides it out with Rafe. Rafe has picked the better players to ally with (Lydia and maybe Cindy as opposed to Jamie and Judd) and it's paying off for him now.

The rest of these players should be much shorter.

Gary: Gary's clutching at straws now and he has to know that. His proposal for a the Stephanie/Judd/Gary/Danni alliance was a good one but it is unlikely anyone would go for it. He made his mistake back when he helped vote out Brian which directly lead to Amy going out next, meaning he went into the merge with no close allies. Proposing new alliances now is almost doomed to failure and he should have made his bonds more solid in the past.

Danni: For now, stick with Gary as he is your only ally. Danni is very likely to make it to five and perhaps at that stage she can propose an alliance Cindy and hope to pull in Stephanie or Lydia though the chances of this working are remote. Like Gary, she planted the seeds of her own destruction way back. For her it was in helping to get rid of Blake.

Lydia: Lydia is almost guaranteed to make the final four (goal 1). Whether she meets goal 2 is completely dependent on Rafe, but she is almost sure to lose to Rafe in the final two (thus not achieving goal 3). The only player with whom she has a chance of making an alliance and beating in the final two would be Cindy but that opportunity may likely present itself at five where she could potentially pair with Cindy, and with Danni's help boot Stephanie and then Rafe. Do I think this might happen? Not a hope in hell.

Judd: Judd's hopes completely depend upon Stephanie, his only realistic hope at a final two partner. Social standing has him losing to Steph in a final two so he needs to stir up the emotions of the jury and his only hope of that is a major coup. He should try and convince Steph of the wisdom of an alliance with Gary and Danni. Otherwise, he's done. Judd is a player with limited options, but he created those limitations himself back when he turned on his tribe after the swap, so I hardly feel sorry for him.

Cindy: Cindy is a player that has been doing nothing but letting others make decisions and she is not in a position to change that now. She has absolutely no influence over anyone. Her only hope (albeit an infinitesimal one) is that Lydia and Danni might team up with her at five and get rid of Stephanie and Rafe. I ain't holding my breath.

Sunday, November 20th 2005 @ 9:16 AM

Sound arguments Abstract.

I don't know why, but I love coming up with plans for those at the bottom. Here's some fun Cindy could have if she had the nerve (which, of course, she doesn't).

She is virtually guaranteed to survive the next boot so whomever Rafe and company decide to target at six - let's say Judd though it doesn't matter - she rats them out and tries to confince Judd and Danni (I'm assuming Gary's gone by now) to force a tie vote. Unfortunately, Danni is such a wuss that she likely won't go for it but if she could force a tie and if the right person picks the purple rock (let's say Rafe) then we could have a whole new game.

This move has a big chance of backfiring but hell, she is destined for the jury anyway. I would love to see an isolated player do one of these "hail Mary" plays sometime.

Monday, November 21st 2005 @ 5:14 PM

Your right, Andrew, Judd and Gary, Danni and Cindy should be working on him. I assumed Steph and company will pull Judd back in making that a non-starter. Either way, that is certainly the course Cindy should pursue at the moment.

Friday, November 25th 2005 @ 1:16 PM

If Judd makes a major pain of himself and start going all paranoid I could easily see him going tomorrow, especially if he tries to flip again.

An almost perfectly consistent pattern in Survivor is when a dominant alliance tries to remove one of it's own, the weaker alliance falls into blind support of the move. I don't see any reason to suspect that if Steph and Rafe wanted Judd gone that this time would be any different. I do suspect that Gary and Danni will be quite proud of themselves and for the editing and Jeffy's comments to imply that it's a whole new game, but I would be surprised if that were the case. I think if Judd went next, Gary (barring an immunity win on his part - a distinct possibility) would be following at the next TC.

Of course another possibility is if Gary does win the next immunity challenge, in which case I suspect the vote would almost automatically go to Judd.

Is it just me, or is anyone else getting the impression that Rafe may be schooling the lot of us on how this game is played.

The guy's won almost every immunity challenge, plus he's towards the top of the social pyramid, yet no one sees him as a threat. The type of reward challenge we had last night is always telling and Rafe was the last player to get a pot smashed.

To top it off, I never would have guessed that he and Cindy were that close and I don't think anyone else has either. Wow!

Episode 11:

Sunday, November 27th 2005 @ 11:59 AM

I agree with your statement that Rafe and Brian are the only players to have a grasp of this game. I think the reason that alliances are so tough to unravel this season is simply because there aren't that many strong alliances out there. No one (including Rafe) seems to be putting his ducks in a row - making that final four alliance with a second, third and fourth.

This is really unusual and I can't help but wonder if the underlieing cause were not Bobby Jon and Stephanie, the twist that was thrown in at the beginning of the game. Neither of these two are strong alliance players. BJ doesn't really play alliances at all and Stephanie has shown that she will flip around, not making a solid bond with anyone. She likes to keep her options as open as possible. I'm wonder if, as the elder statesmen of this game, that other's unconsciously followed their lead.

I also agree with your assessment of the current alliance situation. I was really surprised when Lydia said she felt like the outsider. That Stephanie and Judd didn't go up to her with a firm deal is not surprising - Judd, I think, had one with Jamie and Stephanie, as mentioned earlier, is keeping her options open - but I was surprised that Rafe hasn't approached her.

Being tight with Cindy is obviously the answer, but why Cindy over Lydia? First off, I do think that Rafe is doing the right thing by sitting back and seeing how things shake down. I know this seems like it goes against conventional strategy - it does from what I've written in the past - but there are a number of differences here. First, Rafe is not perceived as any kind of threat and he has solid relationships with a number of key players. He isn't going anywhere for a while yet. Second, because of personality and strength, he will be able to get rid of Judd and Stephanie pretty much at will from here on in, no matter who else he had to work with. He really doesn't have the need to firm things up. He'll be able to get rid of whom he wants anyway and still maintain maximum flexibility.

In the end, Rafe likely has nothing to fear in a final two vote either; he'll probably win against every player left in the game now that Gary is gone. All he has to think about is getting himself there.

What I suspect is that Rafe picked Cindy of Lydia simply because Cindy needed it more. She has fewer options and thus the chances of her staying loyal to Rafe are higher. On top of that, Lydia's own comments seem to indicate that she is not too keen on the whole alliance game anyway and likely would feel uncomfortable with a secret final two deal. Cindy seems more than capable of keeping her mouth shut - a rare quality with this lot.

As I mentioned in another post, Rafe may be schooling the lot of us on how to play the game. With it now down to six, a firm three control the outcome. He seems to have Cindy in his pocket so all he needs is either Lydia or Danni to help him vote out, say, Judd. Piece of cake! Stephanie's and Judd's dominanting personalitites make them readily preceivable as threats and also means they have pretty much no hope in hell of pulling together enough loyality to withstand the threat of the purple rock. I would be completely shocked if there was a tie next week.

Rafe is sitting in the cat-bird seat. His immediate threats in Stephanie and Judd cannot draw enough support to dethrone him (assuming he takes out of them next week) and the remaining players are all passive-predictables more than happy to follow the path of least resistance.

As for this week's vote. Now that it seems clear that Stephanie cannot count of Rafe's support - Rafe has just too many options - Stephanie made a mistake in voting out Gary. She should have taken up his offer from the previous ep (Steph-Judd-Gary-Danni) and taken out Rafe.

One interesting thing that came out of Rafe's mouth was something to the effect of, "Lydia's fate in this game is being decided now." I just got the impression that if Lydia made it past the next little bit, he had plans for her.

Then again ...

... I may be reading too much into a single episode. I should have learned from past seasons not to completely throw out old ideas and not to give players more credit than they deserve.

The simplest solution is usually the correct one, and the simplest is to just replace Lydia in the old alliance with Cindy.

Judd -> Steph <=> Rafe <- Cindy

This is what I believe Abstract had in the last thread. Here there is no deep, secret, alliance between Rafe and Cindy. It's just Rafe realizing he needs support to balance off Judd's support of Stephanie. Rafe and Stephanie still are very likely the pair and the only promise Rafe has made to Cindy is to take her as far as he could. Goodness knows that she would have jumped at a final four promise.

This is a more standard situation that still leaves Rafe in the cat-bird seat. Lydia or Danni could go next and Rafe can still easily use whoever is left from that duo, along with Cindy, to remove Judd before the final four. Even if Judd, Stephanie, Rafe and Cindy are the final four, these players will still avoid a tie and I suspect the vote will drift Judd's way once again.

The possibility of Lydia and Judd pulling in Danni to force a tie next ep seems pretty remote to me. I don't think Rafe has to worry about that.

I still think Stephanie made a mistake in not taking Gary's offer from last ep. There are just so many different ways this can play out until the final two, but most of these seem to end with Rafe on top of the game.

Sunday, November 27th 2005 @ 4:47 PM

I agree that they should force a tie, I just don't think they will.

In fact, I think there should be a lot more ties in Survivor as it is often worth the risk for the bottom half just to get a shake-up. F4 should almost always be a tie and F6 should be quite often as well (like here). Lydia, Danni and Judd should be the most willing to go to purple rock simply because they have nothing to lose. It just rarely seems to work that way.

Sunday, November 27th 2005 @ 4:47 PM

Perhaps it's too early to do a post-mortem on the New-Nakum Six (these guys are too dull for an alliance name better than that), but I just want to see if I can lay out an evolution of this group. The one thing I always feel about alliances, especially big ones, is that they are really constructed out of smaller alliances. In fact, I don't consider anything bigger than a group of four to be an alliance at all, but rather a coalition of two or more seperate alliances or individuals. So, I think it is important to break this alliance of six into its smaller pieces.

Please feel free to throw in your thoughts, but this seems to me to be the way it worked.

Rafe and Stephanie have consistently been the two on top right from the swap on, so I can only assume that they are paired and have been for sometime. Perhaps Rafe is playing Steph but at the very least, Steph believes her and Rafe are together for the final two.

After the swap, Steph and Jamie bring in Judd to avoid the potential tie. I believe at this time that the four player alliance was the original Yaxha's (Steph, Rafe, Jamie & Lydia) with Judd playing back-up. Lydia's current situation makes me feel that she was never close to either Stephanie or Rafe. In fact, in a post game interview, Jamie said she was close with Lydia with jives with Lydia's reluctance to vote him off. So I have this for the alliance around the time Brooke was voted off.

(Rafe<=>Steph)<-Jamie<-Lydia
..................^
..................|
................Judd

Either just before, or shortly after the Brooke boot, Jamie, Lydia and Judd did a very reasonable thing. They decided to band together with the plan to take out Stephanie at five, thus running the show themselves going into the final four. Despite Jamie's paranoia, simplistic outlook and poor social skills, he struck me as someone who was playing the game and trying to think ahead. I suspect the three of them thought this was damn clever (and it was the right move) and this does explain the extreme cockiness, on the verge of arrogance, that both Jamie and Judd displayed right up until we starting getting past the merge.

Now Steph, I believe, plays this game day to day, but Rafe would be more likely to pick up the problem. Even if he didn't suspect and out and out conspiracy between Jamie, Judd and Lydia, a casual look at the structure of this alliance shows that Rafe is vulnerable. So, by the time of the Margaret vote, he had pulled in Cindy, likely with a promise of final four or three. Now the structure is this.

[(Steph<=>Rafe)<-Cindy...Judd->(Jamie<=>Lydia)]

It may be Jamie and Judd were the pair, but it hardly matters.

This looks pretty even, but it's not. The achilles heel for Jamie, Lydia and Judd is the personalities of the two males which means that Rafe and company will have no problems convincing what ever M-players there are left to vote out Jamie or Judd, even if Jamie didn't go all Dale Dribble on them. Perhaps Jamie was picking up on his vulnerability, adding to his paranoia. I suspect (hope) that Rafe's plan was to do this once Gary and BJ (the two dominant M-players) were removed from the game, but when he couldn't stand having Jamie around anymore (and knew others felt the same), he pulled that trigger a little early. It's six of one and half a dozen of the other from his perspective.

This of course means that Jamie going was a huge blow to Lydia and Judd (their reactions last week seem to support that) but with Gary and Danni on board the Jamie boot, Lydia really had no power to change the outcome. Did Gary and Danni make a mistake here? Most certainly.

So now we have this.

Cindy->(Rafe<=>Steph)<-Judd...Lydia

Lydia is obviously feeling vulnerable but I could certainly see Judd leaving before her. Again, Rafe should have no problem using Danni's support to boot Judd (or Lydia for that matter) and I don't think Stephanie realizes the asset Judd represents (or Lydia for that matter).

Of the three most isolated players left (Lydia, Danni and Judd), none are particularly strong immunity threats, great strategic thinkers, or particularly socially adept. Danni may be the most popular with the jury (though it would be hard to see her beating Rafe or even Stephanie) but she is likely the most predictable of the three (and predictability is important for Rafe and Stephanie). Judd may be the more unpredictable, perhaps the best argument that he should go next.

Perhaps it will just come down to who they least want to live with for the next few days. Also, an aggressive push for Judd on Rafe's part may raise Steph's suspicions. If that were the case, the vote should probably drift to Lydia or Danni.

They're all such close calls.

Saturday, December 3rd 2005 @ 3:08 PM

I gotta say, I was absolutely in awe when Stephanie went to Rafe with "her idea" of taking out Judd. How well, and subtly, Rafe was able to push her buttons was one of the most brilliant things I've seen from this game. That's not the kind of stuff you can define within a set of strategies.

I was a little disappointed that Cindy was left out of the loop. I think her feathers can be easily smoothed back down, but I don't see why they needed to be ruffled in the first place. Rafe has got to play it very carefully as clearly the best strategy of the majority of the players now is to boot him. I don't think the likelihood of that is too high right now (though it should) but the last thing he needs is for the two people at three to realize they have no way to beat him, forcing him to win that final challenge.

I've got to put a bit more thought into who I think Rafe should target next, but one thing for sure, he needs to stay close to Steph. Steph likely feels she'll win either way and thus will choose the high-road win (against Rafe) as opposed to the low-road win (against whomever else). The high-road loss is likely not one she is considering a real likelihood. Who should be the other player?: I'm not really sure yet.

Sunday, December 4th 2005 @ 8:21 AM

Yeah, a HUGE mistake by Stephanie - one that pretty much throws any chance of her winning away. As for Judd, I think he just may be one of the biggest jerks to ever play. Folks like Johnny Fairplay may be frustrating to work with, but at least he had that "live by the sword, die by the sword" mentality. That Judd can, in that same TC, say he feels good when someone goes, and then put on that kind of display, is completely hypocritical. How many times have we seen his smug grin as others took the walk? I'm glad he's finally booted, I'm just sorry he had to make the jury. Once again, it looks like I'll have to leave the room and during the final TC. I really have a problem stomaching the sore loser parade.

Post game interviews with him show no change in sentiment. I think this guy is in for a rude awakening when he's in front of a live audience in the final ep.

How should folks play from here on in?

Steph: All she's got left is Rafe. I don't think she has the ability to draw support from anyone else so all she can do is stick with her man to the final three, try and win the challenge, and boot Rafe. The person she can most easily beat is Lydia (Cindy will be close and she'll get slaughtered against Danni) so she should likely begin petitioning her case to Rafe, though it will be an uphill battle. She also needs to be careful because one of the things she certainly lacks is subtilty, something Rafe has in abundance, and if Rafe looses his trust for her he looses his reason for keeping her around.

Cindy-Danni-Lydia: No brainer - band together and boot Rafe. Everything would be in flux after that with Cindy likely the one with the greatest options ahead of her. Booting Steph would probably be the best next move (she'll be completely unpredictable with Rafe gone) and then if Cindy or Lydia win the final challenge, they can boot Danni and Cindy wins. If Danni wins the final challenge, she's likely won the game.

Rafe: He is the one that has to do the most thinking, but thankfully, he should be used to that as he has likely been doing more thinking than the rest of the players combined.

Preventing Cindy-Danni-Lydia from banning together means calming things down after the drama of the Judd boot. I don't think it should be too tough for him but he should be worried about final three where he is obviously the one that should be booted no matter who the other two are. He needs players that are stable, loyal, and above all, manipulatable. That Steph is at the top of this list is a obvious. Her threat in challenges is another asset for Rafe. If Rafe doesn't win the final immunity challenge, the next best thing is his loyal stooge - Stephanie.

So the question becomes, who should be third? First off, you want someone who is very unlikely to strike a deal with Stephanie. Frankly, I think all three of the remaining players are unlikely to team up with Stephanie. I think they all see her as the biggest threat, not Rafe. But, if I had to rank them I would put Cindy as the least likely and Danni as the most, meaning Cindy should be the third. In fact, Steph even describes Danni as her new best friend. Reason one for Danni going next.

Reason two for Danni going next is she is the only player left that could give Rafe a run for his money should she make the final two. I know she has hardly been a wirlwind in the immunity challenges, but more unlikely players have won the final two challenges (MamaKim and Jenna M), so, if I were Rafe, Danni would be the one I would most like to be gone now.

Here's the rub. Can he turn the others onto Danni while at the same time bringing the level of tension down? If he feels he can turn the target to Danni without risking the loyalties of Steph and Cindy, then he should go for it. If he's worried about it, he should follow the path of least resistance which likely leads to Lydia going.

That Cindy is pissed about not being in the loop doesn't help things.

Episode 12:

Tuesday, December 6th 2005 @ 9:45 AM

The great disparity between what should happen and what does happen is often discouraging.

We've been connecting players with support lines since the early stages of this game. Things modify bit by bit with each episode but we all clearly recognized Rafe and Stephanie as the front runners from the merge on. It was also clear that everyone in the game recognized them as the leaders, but did absolutely nothing about it.

And Guatamala is hardly the exception. The front runners at the merge have won seven of the first ten games. The sole exceptions are Vecepia, Chris and Tom (yes, Tom, as no one was planning to sit opposite to him in the end).

This doesn't happen in any other game. If you play Risk or Monopoly and someone builds a significant lead, you immediately work to bring that player down. In any kind of sport, if you are behind you increase the offence and become more aggressive. Yet in Survivor, those behind become more defensive and spend their time sucking up to the dominant players.

It boggles the mind.

Wednesday, December 7th 2005 @ 12:23 PM

Hi Peter,

You could be right in the editing department, but I hope not. If Stephanie wakes up a little she'll realize that she is loosing all her allies but Rafe and if Cindy goes before final three it means one of two things: One, the wrong player wins immunity, or two, Stephanie is sensing that she needs another ally.

If she's really thinking about who she needs to be up against in the final two, she'll begin to push to have someone like Lydia around. Lydia staying in this game (outside of her winning immunity) is an indication, to me, that Steph wants someone other than Rafe to be beside in the final two. If I were Rafe, that would worry me.

As for Steph this season when compared to last, I don't see her as being all that different as a player. What's changed is her position in the game which has given her a different edit. I think the Steph we see is the same Steph they had in Palau.

Episode 13:

Friday, December 9th 2005 @ 8:59 AM

[quote]I'll start off by asking, has anybody ever played those terrible Survivor computer games? I got one for the hell of it and gave it a try. Each tribal council is set up completely independent of the other. The game has no recollection of past alliances. The game has no concerned for future plans. All it is one tribal council where you try to mix and match whatever you can to get into the majority. I used to complain because I thought it was completely unrealistic, but after watching this season... Let's just say this season it seems nobody has actual plans for where their alliance is REALLY going.[/quote]

I love it. You are so right on the nail here. Very frustrating.

My wife made the point that she thinks Rafe's only plan was to manipulate himself next to Stephanie. She thinks that now, everyone has got the same plan. So now we've got a free for all final four where the past means nothing. What is he doing making final two deals now. He should have been setting stuff like this up weeks ago. Folks, think ahead and get those ducks in a row!

I'm not looking forward to this final ep at all and my guess would be that Danni wins this thing in a landslide. She got an incredibly sweet edit at the beginning of last night's ep, especially in the recap of the Judd boot that made it out like Danni was the grand schemer.

So, Danni and Steph in a final two. What would be the icy on the cake would be Stephanie winning the final challenge and taking Danni over Rafe.

Sad, sad, sad ...

I think what he had this season was a dominant alliance that was really forced together by circumstance rather than created by choice. As such, there was no planning and no loyality. In fact, many of them didn't even like each other much. If these guys were gamers, that shouldn't have mattered, but Survivor is populated by gamers, it's full of whining, self-rightous losers. As such, we had this sad drifting kind of game.

Lesson learned: Make your alliances and stick to them! If Nakum had it's crap together and formed a solid tribe before the swap, they could have wiped the floor with Yaxha even after the Judd betrayal.

Friday, December 9th 2005 @ 12:48 PM

I don't like Rafe's lack of a strong alliance. Maybe it wasn't his doing, maybe he couldn't get people to firm things up, but what is worrying me is that if he plays this so fast and loose, what's to stop the others from doing the same?

Unless Rafe can win the final immunity challenge, he needs to have someone that will take him and that requires a sense of commitment, trust, and even guilt, that has to be built over time. Rafe should have been looking ahead back around the merge and figuring who the people were that he needed and commit himself to those people so that they would be far less likely to screw him over come the end.

This kind of 11th hour deal he's making with Danni is far more likely to fall through for him. If Danni won the final challenge she is very likely to dump Rafe. If he committed himself to a player like Lydia and/or Cindy very early, the chances of one of them screwing him at F3 drop considerably.

Now maybe I'm not being fair. Perhaps he felt out Lydia and Cindy very early on and got the impression that they weren't prepared to commit. Perhaps Danni is the first player to say, "yup, me and you - final two."

Episode 14:

Monday, December 12th 2005 @ 7:54 AM

I actually stopped watching after Danni won the final immunity challenge, not out of disappointment or anger, just out of apathy. It was like when you see the checkmate coming in chess and you reach across the table to shake your opponent's hand - game over. I tuned back in to see the final reading of the votes and about half of the reunion before calling it quits.

It was a lame conclusion to a pretty lame season. Did the deserving player win? Yeah, I guess. This game was Rafe's to lose and lost it he did so I can't feel bad for him. It's not like in Vanuatu when Chris backdoor won over Scout and Twila who did make all the right moves. Once Rafe threw the game away I really didn't care who ended up on top.

Abstract mentioned in the other thread that Rafe reminded him of Ian who also needlessly guilted himself out of the win. The similarity struck me too. What was different between Palau and Guatemala was that Palau was fun right up to the end with a dominant five that were each playing hard with no ill feelings. Guatemala was just survival of the most innocuous.

Brian did appear to be the only strong player this season. Too bad got screwed by a swap and bad play from his team-mates. Oh well, here's hoping for improvement next time.

Tuesday, December 13th 2005 @ 12:34 PM

A Message To Andrew:

Thanks for hosting this blog. It was a lot of fun going through strategy talks as we progressed through the game. It most certainly made this season more enjoyable for me.

Looking forward to Pearl Island - Exile.