SURVIVOR –
EPISODE 1:
What happened:
Tagi lost the immunity challenge and voted off their
weakest immunity player in Sonja.
Dirk, Rudy, Sean & Susan
voted Sonja.
Kelly, Sonja & Stacey
voted Rudy.
Rich voted Stacey.
The good: Sonja was obviously the weakest player physically by
far and needed to be taken out. Sonja
voting for the second weakest player was also an obvious play.
The dubious: Richard’s vote on Stacey. It seems he’s targeting players he sees as a
threat. It’s too early for that.
The mistakes: Kelly’s and Stacey’s on
Rudy. They should be targeting Sonja as
well.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: B.B., Colleen, Gervase,
Greg, Gretchen, Jenna, Joel & Ramona
Tagi: Dirk, Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean, Stacey & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 3, Stacey - 1
Strong Positions:
Pagong: Gretchen & Gervase
Tagi: Dirk & Sean
Comments: Although well liked, Sonja needed to go and Dirk, Rudy,
Sean and Susan did the right thing in taking her out. Dirk and Sean are in the strongest positions
because Rudy is likely to become the next target in this tribe. Richard is coming out aggressive, which could
easily spell his own demise while Kelly and Stacey seem to be voting based upon
whom they like better.
In Pagong
I picked Gretchen and Gervase because Gretchen seems
to be emerging as the leader while Gervase would
likely be her chief competition.
EPISODE 2:
What happened:
Pagong loses immunity and voted off their weakest (and most
annoying) immunity player in B.B.
Colleen, Gervase,
Gretchen, Jenna, Joel & Ramona voted B.B.
B.B. & Greg voted
Ramona.
The good: B.B. was the weakest physically and grating to many
of the players in the tribe. B.B’s vote on the second weakest player was also obvious.
The mistakes: Greg should not be isolating himself from the tribe
and should have voted B.B.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: Colleen, Gervase, Greg,
Gretchen, Jenna, Joel & Ramona
Tagi: Dirk, Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean, Stacey & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 3, Ramona – 2, Stacey
– 1
Strong Positions:
Tagi: Sean & Dirk
Pagong: Gervase & Gretchen
Comments: Outside of Greg, there is far more unison in Pagong.
EPISODE 3:
What happened:
Tagi loses immunity and voted off Stacey.
Votes:
Dirk, Richard, Rudy, Sean
& Susan voted Stacey.
Kelly & Stacey voted
Rudy.
The good: As the next weakest player physically, Rudy should
have been the target. Rudy’s vote on
Stacey, whom he has had tensions with is also obvious.
The dubious: Richard and Susan targeting Stacey is likely them attacking someone they see as a threat. They should be worrying more about winning
immunity challenges right now.
The mistakes: Dirk and Sean are making mistakes in taking out
Stacey. Besides being a stronger
immunity contender, there is an obvious alliance forming between Richard, Sue
and Rudy. They need allies.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: Colleen, Gervase, Greg,
Gretchen, Jenna, Joel & Ramona
Tagi: Dirk, Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes Against:
Rudy - 5, Ramona – 2
Strong Positions:
Tagi: Richard & Susan
Pagong: Gervase & Gretchen
Comments: There has been a definite power shift in Tagi with Dirk and Sean conceding Stacey to Richard. With Sue obviously in Richard’s camp, and likely Rudy as well, Dirk and Sean can no longer
be considered in the strong position in this tribe. Kelly seems out in left field. Targeting Stacey was a risk, but for now, it
seems Richard has gotten away with it.
They need to hope that they haven’t weakened the tribe too much in the
process.
EPISODE 4:
What happened:
Pagong loses immunity and Ramona goes.
Votes:
Colleen, Gretchen, Jenna
& Joel voted Ramona.
Gervase & Ramona voted Colleen.
Greg voted Jenna.
The good: Ramona was the laziest and physically weakest of the
remaining tribe members. Ramona’s vote
on Colleen, the next weakest player was also obvious.
The mistakes: Greg and Gervase targeting
different players.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: Colleen, Gervase, Greg,
Gretchen, Jenna, Joel
Tagi: Dirk, Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 5, Colleen – 2, Jenna
– 1
Strong Positions:
Pagong: Gretchen
Tagi: Richard
Comments: Gervase obviously had some
deal with Ramona, and sticking to it was admirable but a little foolish. Although alliances doesn’t
seem to be part of the vocabulary of this tribe, the remaining women will
likely continue to vote together and he needs to put together some kind of
opposition. Unfortunately, his only
potential alliance-mates are the egocentric Joel and the schizophrenic
Greg. Meanwhile, Richard is running the
show in Tagi.
EPISODE 5:
What happened:
Tagi loses immunity and Dirk is voted out.
Votes:
Kelly, Richard, Rudy &
Susan voted Dirk.
Sean voted Rudy.
Dirk voted Susan.
The good: Dirk’s vote on Susan, the weakest remaining tribe
member.
The interesting: The tribe is in the position of having to win their
next immunity challenge or go into the merger down 6 to 4 and Kelly, Richard,
Rudy and Susan take out their strongest immunity contender, by far, in
Dirk. Dirk is definitely their biggest
threat, so this can’t be counted as a mistake, but it is a risky move. Sean may have been a better choice.
The mistakes: Sean should be getting on board with someone and not
voting solo.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: Colleen, Gervase, Greg,
Gretchen, Jenna, Joel
Tagi: Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 6, Colleen – 2, Jenna
– 1, Susan – 1
Strong Positions:
Pagong: Gretchen
Tagi: Richard
Comments: The Tagi alliance has
solidified into Richard, Susan, Rudy and perhaps Kelly. Kelly is the fulcrum in the tribe and things
can swing one way or the other depending on her. So far in this game she has been all over the
place, but if she realizes what’s happening around her she could pull together
a coup against Richard. If she doesn’t
Richard may just run away with this game if Tagi can
come out on top.
EPISODE 6:
What happened:
Pagon loses immunity and Joel is gone.
Votes:
Colleen, Greg, Gretchen
& Jenna voted Joel.
Gervase & Joel voted Jenna.
The good: With the merger imminent, the need for a strong
contender in your tribe is gone. The
three women taking out Joel was obvious.
Joel voting for Jenna, the player he’s had the most tension with is also
obvious.
The interesting: Greg’s vote on Joel is interesting, as it seems a
bit of a reversal for him. Could he and
Colleen actually be using that organ between their ears as well?
The dubious: Gervase voting Jenna along
with Joel. If they had Greg with them in
the vote this would have been a great move.
Who’s Left:
Pagong: Colleen, Gervase, Greg,
Gretchen & Jenna
Tagi: Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 6, Jenna - 3, Colleen
– 2, Susan – 1
Strong Positions:
Pagong: Gretchen
Tagi: Richard
Comments: Gervase may have realized too late the need to deal with the
women in his tribe. Although voting
Jenna last time, Greg now switches to voting Joel with the ladies. A relationship he is developing with Colleen
may have more to do with this then anything.
In Tagi, Kelly seems to be getting in tighter
with the alliance, especially with Sue.
It seems natural that this alliance is going to break into the two pairs
of Richard & Rudy against Susan & Kelly. The votes on Rudy could be a problem as do
both Richard’s and Rudy’s abrasive personalities, which could get them votes
from Pagong.
On the other hand, where Sean’s vote will end up falling is very
unclear. How the power shakes down in
this tribe is very tough to call.
EPISODE 7:
What happened:
Greg wins immunity and
Gretchen is voted off.
Votes:
Kelly, Richard, Rudy &
Susan voted Gretchen.
Sean voted Colleen.
Colleen voted Richard.
Gervase voted Susan.
Jenna voted Gervase.
Greg voted Jenna.
Gretchen voted Rudy.
The great: Kelly, Richard, Rudy & Susan recognized that the
other tribe was not going to be voting as a group, and so targeted their
smartest player in Gretchen.
The good: With the tribes tied, each tribe should be targeting
the player that likely has the most votes against. This would be the player that has been the
most abrasive, especially in the opinion of the people already voted off. This person would have been Rudy or Richard
for Tagi, so Gretchen and Colleen’s votes were the
obvious one.
The mistakes: Gervase’s vote for
Susan. There are much better vote
earners in Tagi.
The blunders: Greg and Jenna voting for their own tribe members is
very foolish as Sean using his alphabetical voting system and voting for the
completely non-threatening Colleen. This
could have easily burned his whole tribe if Pagong
had had their act together.
Who’s Left:
Colleen, Gervase,
Greg, Kelly, Jenna, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes against:
Rudy - 6, Jenna – 4, Colleen
– 3, Susan – 2, Richard – 1, Gervase – 1
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker
Tribe: Colleen, Gervase, Greg & Jenna
Strong Position:
Kelly
Comments: Pagong was following the
philosophy of their leader and not forming alliances, and it has likely just
cost them the game. I’m switching to
Kelly as being in the strongest position as any likelihood of Sean voting with
Richard and Rudy has been lost in his new found alphabetical voting
system. As well, Kelly seems to be in
great with the remaining members of Pagong and should
be able to use that to her advantage.
EPISODE 8:
What happened:
Gervase wins immunity and Greg is voted off.
Votes:
Jenna, Kelly, Richard, Rudy,
Sean & Susan voted Greg.
Colleen, Gervase
& Greg voted Jenna.
The
good:
Once Gervase won immunity, Greg was the next
strongest immunity contender and should be gone. Besides he follows Sean’s alphabetical voting
system, so they might as well take advantage of the extra vote.
The
blunders:
Colleen, Gervase, Greg and Jenna voting for their own
tribe members is incredibly stupid after what happened
last time.
Who’s Left:
Colleen, Gervase,
Kelly, Jenna, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes
against:
Jenna
- 7, Rudy – 6, Colleen – 3, Susan – 2, Ricchard – 1, Gervase
– 1
Jury: Greg
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker
Tribe: Colleen, Gervase & Jenna
Strong
Position:
Kelly
Comments: If not seeing that Tagi was voting as a group last council was foolish, then not seeing what was coming this time was down right
idiotic.
EPISODE
9:
What
happened:
Rudy
wins immunity and Jenna is voted out.
Votes:
Richard,
Rudy, Sean & Susan voted Jenna.
Colleen,
Gervase & Jenna voted Richard.
Kelly
voted Sean.
The good: The target should have been the more athletic Gervase but with Sean following his alphabet, Richard and
Rudy made the obvious vote and followed.
Pagong has finally clued into the idea of
voting as a group and put their votes on the leader of Tagi,
Richard. Rudy may have been a better
choice as he likely has more votes against and one errant vote on Tagi could have turned the tables.
The mistakes: Up by two members, Tagi
could afford to remove one of their own.
Kelly and Susan could easily get the support from Pagong
to take out Richard. The opportunity didn’t
exist in reverse for Richard and Rudy, as they would likely not be able to get
the support to take out Kelly. Kelly
would have needed to be the target because she would have joined Pagong in a heartbeat if Richard made any moves to take out
one of their own. Sean also went the
wrong direction and should have at least helped in targeting the right person
in Gervase. He
should dump the alphabetical voting system and work on being the third to
Richard and Rudy.
Who’s Left:
Colleen, Gervase,
Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean & Susan
Votes
against:
Rudy
- 6, Richard – 4, Colleen – 3, Susan – 2, Gervase –
1, Sean – 1
Jury: Greg & Jenna
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker
Tribe: Colleen & Gervase
Strong
Position:
Kelly
Comments: This would have been a
great opportunity for Kelly and Sue to remove Richard, but they let it go
by. Kelly’s vote on Sean was
particularly bizarre. The thing is, even
with Jenna gone, Richard and Rudy still can’t get the support to make a move on
Sue or Kelly, so Kelly still remains in the strongest position to win this
game.
EPISODE
10:
What
happened:
Rich
won immunity and Gervase was voted out.
Votes:
Kelly,
Richard, Rudy, Sean & Susan voted Gervase.
Colleen
& Gervase voted Sean.
The
good:
Richard, Rudy and Sean take out the strongest immunity contender in Gervase.
The
dubious: Perhaps
hoping for a couple of errant votes, Colleen and Gervase
vote Sean. Spreading more votes around
the dominant alliance (either Richard or Sue) would have been better.
The
mistakes:
Kelly and Sue should be targeting Rudy once again now the Rich has won immunity.
Who’s Left:
Colleen, Kelly, Rich, Rudy,
Sean & Susan
Votes
Against:
Rudy
- 6, Richard – 4, Colleen – 3, Sean – 3, SSusan – 2
Jury: Gervase,
Greg & Jenna
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker
Tribe: Colleen
Strong
position:
Kelly
Comments:
Kelly
let another one go by and is running out of chances, especially considering
that she is distancing herself from her greatest asset in Sue. Despite it all, Kelly is still in the best
position because Colleen will likely vote with them if need be and Rudy and
Richard have the most votes against.
EPISODE
11:
What
happened:
Kelly
won immunity and Colleen was voted out.
Votes:
Richard,
Rudy, Sean & Susan voted Colleen.
Colleen
& Kelly voted Sean.
The
good:
With Kelly winning immunity, Richard and Rudy had no choice but to target
Colleen. Taking out Sue would have
pushed Kelly, and very likely Sean, to join Colleen.
The
interesting:
Susan seems to realize that she cannot count on Kelly to vote with her, so she
joins forces with Richard and Rudy playing to be the third and hopefully win
the final immunity challenge.
Who’s Left:
Kelly, Rich, Rudy, Sean
& Susan
Votes
Against:
Rudy
- 6, Sean – 5, Richard – 4, Susan – 2
Jury: Colleen, Gervase, Greg & Jenna
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Strong
Position:
Richard
Comments:
It looks
like Kelly has blown it. Her refusal to
vote in an alliance has pushed Sue back to Richard and Rudy and left her on her
own. She would have been the target if
she hadn’t won immunity and she is now in the position of having to win all the
rest of the immunity challenges to stay in the game.
EPISODE
12:
What
happened:
Kelly
won immunity and Sean was voted off.
Votes:
Kelly,
Richard, Rudy & Susan voted Sean
Sean
voted Susan.
The
good: Kelly
was again the likely target here, but once she won immunity, her, Susan’s and
Sean’s votes were largely forced.
The
mistakes:
Both Sue and Sean were in the Richard/Rudy camp, so either could have been
taken out. With Susan and Kelly voting
Sean, Richard and Rudy should have voted Susan with Sean. Sean would have ended up with the most votes
against making it impossible for Rudy or Rich to be voted out next council as
long as they stuck together. Besides,
with either Sue or Sean, the next target would still have been Kelly and having
Sean around, a decent immunity contender when compared to Sue, the chances of
Kelly winning immunity next time is reduced.
Who’s Left:
Kelly, Rich, Rudy &
Susan
Votes
Against:
Rudy
- 6, Richard – 4, Susan – 3
Jury: Colleen, Gervase, Greg, Jenna & Sean
Alliances:
Dominant
Pair: Richard & Rudy
Third:
Sue
Fourth:
Kelly
Strong
position:
Richard
Comments: Now it’s Richard and
Rudy’s turn to make a mistake. Although both
Sean and Susan would have likely helped in taking out Kelly in the next
council, Richard cannot ignore the possibility of Kelly winning the next
challenge (she’s won three in a row now).
If Kelly wins the next immunity
challenge, whoever the other player is (besides Richard and Rudy) would be
forced to vote Richard or Rudy and if Kelly votes the same that person will be
gone due to previous votes against. If
Sean were kept, he would have had the most previous votes against (five
previously, plus two more from Kelly and Sue) making the possibility of a coup
zero.
EPISODE
13 - Part 1:
What
happened:
Kelly
wins immunity and Susan is voted off.
Votes:
1st
vote - Kelly & Susan voted for Richard.
- Richard & Rudy voted for
Susan.
2nd
vote - Kelly, Richard & Rudy voted for Susan.
- Susan voted for Richard.
The
good:
Once Kelly won immunity, Richard, Rudy and Susan had no choice as to how to
vote.
The
mistakes:
Kelly was the swing vote and had to decide between Richard and Susan. Richard was the stronger immunity contender
and likely more popular to the jury. She
chose very poorly.
Who’s Left:
Kelly, Rich & Rudy
Votes
Against:
Doesn't matter anymore.
Jury: Colleen, Gervase, Greg, Jenna, Sean & Susan
Alliances:
Dominant
Pair: Richard & Rudy
Third:
Kelly
Strong
Position:
Richard
Comments: Richard’s previous
mistake almost burned him here, but Kelly’s bizarre voting saved him. If either Rudy or Kelly wins immunity, they
will likely take Richard with him, putting Richard in the final two regardless
of the outcome of the next immunity challenge.
Richard will certainly get his share of votes. He is the only player to have gone into this
with a plan and executed it right from the start.
EPISODE
13 - Part 2:
What
happened:
Kelly
wins immunity and takes out Rudy.
The
good:
Once she won immunity, Kelly took out the most popular player.
Richard
wins the vote 4 – 3
Final
Votes:
Rudy,
Susan, Sean & Greg voted for Richard.
Colleen,
Gervase & Jenna voted for Kelly.
Comments: Kelly and Richard represented the two opposite
theories on to how to play the game.
Richard was a strategist, making alliances and voting for the players he
perceived as being the biggest threat to him winning, whether he personally
liked them or not. Kelly played through
trying to show she was the best at surviving the challenges that this game
presented, voting for the people she felt least deserved to be there and whom
she disliked the most. Thank greatness
Richard won. Eventually, the game would
have evolved into the style of game that Richard played, but in the meantime we
would have had to put up with players all trying to fly under each other’s
radar. Richard Hatch is not the
antithesis of Survivor strategy, but he certainly has laid a solid foundation
upon which others can build.