SURVIVOR-AUSTRALIA VOTING ANALYSIS
POINTS GRAPH
EPISODE 1:
What
happened:
Kucha loses immunity and
Debb was voted out.
Votes:
Alicia, Elizabeth, Jeff,
Kimmi, Michael, Nick & Roger voted Debb.
Debb voted
Jeff.
The good: Debb’s vote on a player she found annoying was an
obvious play as was Roger voting Debb, as he would have been the second
choice.
The
dubious: Debb was a dubious
choiced. It seems she didn’t fit in
well with the other players and got on some people’s nerves, but players
admitted themselves that she was getting better and she was far from the weakest
immunity contender there. Roger
would have been a better choice.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Kimmi, Michael, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith, Kel, Maralyn, Mitchell & Tina
Votes
against:
Jeff –
1
Strong
positions:
Kucha: Alicia &
Michael
Ogakor: Colby &
Mitchell
Comments: Although the choice of Debb was dubious on the part
of Kucha, it was great to see that the vote was unanimous. The idea of building a team is not lost
on these players. Picking strong
players out is largely guess work at this stage, but in Kucha, Alicia and
Michael seem to be gamers. Jeff is
as well, but needs to work harder in avoiding the votes against. In Ogakor, Colby, Mitchell, Kel and
Jerri all seem to be on the ball.
Jerri seems too abrasive and Kel seems socially awkward, so I’m going
with Colby and Mitchell.
EPISODE
2:
What
happened:
Ogakor loses immunity and
Kel is voted out.
Votes:
Amber, Colby, Jerri, Keith,
Maralyn, Mitchell & Tina voted Kel.
Kel voted
Jerri.
The good: Kel voting for the player that bugs him the most in
Jerri is a standard vote as is Maralyn and Tina voting Kel, as the alternate
strategy of taking out less athletic players would target
them.
The
dubious: Voting out the athletic Kel
at this early stage is a dubious strategy.
Whether this was done because he wasn’t fitting in or because he was
perceived as a threat – I suspect the later – taking out a strong immunity
contender at such an early stage is dangerous. The truth is though that there are two
competing powers in this tribe with Jerri on one side and Colby on the
other. Kel likely appeared the
threat to both of them.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Kimmi, Michael, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith, Maralyn, Mitchell & Tina
Votes
against:
Jeff – 1, Jerri –
1
Strongest
Positions:
Kucha: Alicia &
Michael
Ogakor: Colby &
Mitchell
Comments:
The Ogakor tribe is much weaker
without Kel in the mix. Maralyn
would have been a better choice.
Voting Kel really looks like a power play on the part of Jerri and those
allied with her (by this stage that was both Mitchell and Amber). This kind of aggression not only weakens
the tribe but draws attention to yourself as well.
EPISODE
3:
What
happened:
Ogakor loses immunity and
Maralyn is voted out.
Votes:
Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Mitchell & Tina voted Maralyn.
Keith voted
Mitchell
Maralyn voted
Jerri.
The good: The physically weakest Maralyn was the obvious
choice here as was Maralyn putting a vote on the player she likes the
least.
The
dubious: Keith’s vote on Mitchell is
not a smart move on his part.
Perhaps he felt bad putting a vote on Maralyn, but signaling himself out
like this is not a great plan.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Kimmi, Michael, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith, Mitchell & Tina
Votes
against:
Jerri – 2, Jeff – 1,
Mitchell – 1
Strongest
Positions:
Kucha: Alicia &
Michael
Ogakor: Colby &
Mitchell
Comments:
Unlike Survivor 1, alliances on both
sides are forming. In Ogakor, Jerri
is the most aggressive and is backed up by Mitchell and Amber. Tina is getting her head into the game
at this point, voting out Maralyn, someone she was bonding strongly with, in
order to strengthen the tribe. By
this stage Colby and Tina are drawing together out of pure survival but need to
get the unpopular Keith on board. It must have been difficult
for Colby and Tina to vote out Maralyn, a potential supporter, when the alliance
between Jerri, Mitchell and Amber must have been obvious at this stage. Maralyn was still the right move for
them though, as they likely knew that she would vote for either Jerri or
Mitchell, giving them the upper hand in a future tie vote. In Kucha, Elizabeth and Roger have a
definite bond by this point and Michael is drawing closer to them. Alicia and Jeff later admit that they
had an alliance and had Nick in their court.
EPISODE
4:
What
happened:
Ogakor loses immunity and
Mitchell is voted out.
Colby, Keith & Tina
voted Mitchell.
Amber, Jerri & Mitchell
voted Keith.
The second vote holds and
Mitchell is gone on previous votes against.
The great:
Colby, Tina and Keith joining forces
to not let the other alliance walk away with this and take out Mitchell. This was a choice between Mitchell and
Jerri, but with Mitchell being ill they made the move that was best for their
tribe.
The
dubious: Unlike the other three,
Amber, Jerri and Mitchell target the player they like the least, despite Keith
being a decent immunity contender.
Their target should have been Tina, but it is possible they may have had
difficulty getting the support needed to do this.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Kimmi, Michael, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith & Tina
Votes
against:
Keith – 3, Jerri – 2, Jeff –
1
Strongest
Positions:
Kucha:
Alicia
Ogakor:
Tina
Comments: Colby, Tina and Keith made a strong move in seizing
control of their tribe. The problem
is, how much of their tribe will be left by the merge? Down five players to seven, Ogakor must
win the next two immunity challenges or go into the merge with fewer
numbers. Tina and Colby are the
pair, but it is Tina that has the support of Keith and is more likely to get
support when it comes to the end.
Picking the leading contender in Kucha is tougher. Alicia and Jeff are weakened by the vote
on Jeff. Michael is without a
second, but likely won’t get turned on by the non-aggressive Elizabeth and
Roger. On top of that, the
Michael/Elizabeth/Roger alliance is more likely to get support over Alicia/Jeff
and Nick after the merge. There
biggest weakness is that Roger the a logical choice if Kucha looses the next
immunity challenge. Then there is
the Kimmi factor, where will she fall.
Not a contender herself, she can tip the scales one way or the other
depending upon where she puts her support.
EPISODE
5:
What
happened:
Kucha loses the immunity and
vote out Kimmi.
Alicia, Elizabeth, Jeff,
Michael, Nick & Roger voted Kimmi.
Kimmi voted
Jeff.
The good: Elizabeth, Roger and Michael wouldn’t want Roger
gone. Taking out the Kimmi wild
card works to their advantage without severely weakening the tribe. Kimmi’s voting for her least favourite
player is also a common move. Jeff
implied later that it was Michael that pushed Kimmi towards voting Jeff. Awesome stuff
Michael.
The
dubious: Alicia, Jeff and Nick’s
helping to take out Kimmi is a dubious move on their part. Kimmi may have been the card to tilt the
scales in their favour.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Michael, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith & Tina
Votes
against:
Keith – 3, Jeff – 2, Jerri –
2
Strong
positions:
Kucha:
Michael
Ogakor:
Tina
Comments: With Kimmi gone and the extra vote on Jeff, power
has definitely on the side of Michael, Elizabeth and Roger. It seems funny picking someone without a
second, but I can’t see Elizabeth and Roger taking out Michael before the final
three, and Michael is enough of a gamer that it wouldn’t surprise me if he
pulled a move on them before that.
Even if he does not, he stands a better then not chance of winning the
final immunity challenge and going into the final two
anyway.
EPISODE
6:
What
happened:
Michael fell into the fire
and had to be taken to the hospital thus removing him from the game. There was no immunity
challenge.
Who’s
Left:
Kucha: Alicia, Elizabeth,
Jeff, Nick & Roger
Ogakor: Amber, Colby, Jerri,
Keith & Tina
Votes
against:
Keith – 3, Jeff – 2, Jerri –
2
Strongest
positions:
Kucha:
Alicia
Ogakor:
Tina
Comments: Obviously, no one could have predicted the accident
to Michael, but it's amazing how the absence of one player completely changes
the complexion of the game. Michael
gone causes the Jeff/Alicia/Nick alliance to gain the upper hand in the Kucha
tribe. It also brought the Ogakor
tribe to even footing with the Kucha's after being only one immunity loss away
from essentially being taken out of the game.
If Kucha had lost, the two
alliances would have likely gone head to head and Jeff would have been kicked
out due his previous votes against in the tie vote. If Ogakor had lost, Colby, Tina &
Keith would have likely taken out Jerri.
EPISODE
7:
What
happened:
Keith wins immunity and Jeff
is voted out in a tie.
Amber, Colby, Keith, Jerri
& Tina voted Jeff.
Alicia, Elizabeth, Jeff,
Nick & Roger voted Colby.
The second vote holds and
Jeff is gone on previous votes against.
The good: Earlier in the game, before an immunity challenge,
Tina asked Kimmi who Debb had voted for and amazingly Kimmi told her. Ogakor knew that Jeff had at least one
vote against, so this was a no-brainer on their part.
The
dubious: Apparently Colby put on a
show, acting like a jerk to draw the Kucha votes. Kucha wasn’t being fooled though, and
was targeting Keith, but when Keith won immunity they were left scrambling. I know it’s easy to say this in
hindsight, but Colby was a poor choice.
They should have been watching the dynamics in the tribe since the
beginning of the game and should have realized that Jerri was the better
contender for votes against.
Who’s
Left:
Alicia, Amber, Colby,
Elizabeth, Jerri, Keith, Nick, Roger & Tina
Votes
against:
Colby - 5, Keith – 3, Jerri
– 2
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Alicia,
Elizabeth, Nick & Roger
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments: Kucha was ridiculously overconfident going into
this, actually pointing out the people in the order in which they would be
taking them out and basically telling Keith that he was the one to go. When the immunity challenge came along,
they simply didn't recognize its importance. The immunity challenge was an endurance
type in which each member stood on an upright log in the water as long as they
could. With each tribe standing to
lose big if the wrong person won immunity, they should have all stayed out as
long as humanly possible, or at least until their intended voting target was
out. The only people that seemed to
realize this were Alicia, Elizabeth, Tina and Keith. Jeff (with his two votes against) was
one of the earliest to go, enticed by Colby holding out a little peanut
butter. An obvious, but smart, move
on Colby's part. In the end
Elizabeth and Alicia couldn't outlast Tina and Keith. Once the last Kucha was gone, Tina
stepped down to give Keith the victory.
I continue to have Tina in
the strongest position for two reasons.
One is that Keith is likely more loyal to her then to Colby and two, the
five votes now on Colby makes him the best target if a coup is attempted. Colby’s strength is in his athletic
ability giving him a strong position come the endgame.
EPISODE
8:
What
happened:
Keith wins immunity and
Alicia is voted out.
Votes:
Amber, Colby, Keith, Jerri
& Tina voted Alicia.
Alicia, Elizabeth, Nick
& Roger voted Jerri
The good: Alicia was the strongest immunity contender and
Kucha’s most aggressive player.
This was a complete no-brainer on their part. Kucha’s votes on Jerri were likely a
desperate attempt at an errant vote in Ogakor.
Who’s
Left:
Amber, Colby, Elizabeth,
Jerri, Keith, Nick, Roger & Tina
Votes
against:
Colby - 5, Jerri – 6, Keith
– 3
Jury: Alicia
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Elizabeth,
Nick & Roger
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments: Another alternative for Kucha would have been to put
five votes on Tina to weaken the position of the dominant alliance and
increasing the likelihood of a coup.
EPISODE
9:
What
happened:
Nick wins immunity and Jerri
is voted off.
Votes:
Colby, Elizabeth, Keith,
Roger, Tina & Nick voted Jerri.
Amber & Jerri voted
The great:
Tina, Colby and Keith recognized
that having their tribe up
The good: Jerri and Amber followed the obvious course voting
for the next strongest Kucha after Nick won immunity.
The
mistakes: Kucha had the opportunity
to strike and blow at the dominant alliance by putting three votes onto
Colby. This would have created a
three – three tie between Colby and Jerri.
There would have been a revote with Colby and Jerri not being allowed to
vote and the rest only being allowed to vote Colby or Jerri. Elizabeth, Roger and Nick sticks with
Colby and Tina and Keith vote Jerri.
Amber is the swing vote and would likely stick with her alliance with
Jerri and vote Colby and Colby goes.
Who’s
Left:
Amber, Colby, Elizabeth,
Keith, Nick, Roger & Tina
Votes
against:
Colby - 5, Keith – 3,
Jury: Alicia & Jerri
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Elizabeth,
Nick & Roger
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments:
Tina, Colby and Keith’s recognizing
that Jerri should go represents the best act of voting yet in Survivor. As the Kucha’s dwindle in number, it was
only a matter of time before Jerri, with Amber in tow, would have gone over and
joined forces with the Kucha’s and gone after either Colby or Tina. She was an easy target because her
abrasive personality could have been used as the reason for taking her out. If Jerri won immunity, they likely would
have taken out Nick. It would not
have been smart to pull vote out Amber and leave Jerri in the game. She has shown herself to be a reckless
player (remember Kel) and may have gone over to the Kucha's thinking it was the
smart thing to do. In the process
she would have brought down herself and the rest of her
tribe.
From the Kucha’s perspective
though, Colby would have been the better target, and they had the power to
remove him to. The weaker tribe
should not work to gain favour with the dominant alliance, as their alliance is
not likely to break down. If the
dominant tribe is going to turn on itself, the weaker tribe should consider two
factors in who to support. One,
they would want to get rid of the strongest immunity contender possible and two,
they should create as much chaos a possible, increasing the likelihood of a
blunder that may allow them back into the game. Having Colby gone and leaving Jerri in
accomplishes both of these goals.
The great thing is, they could have done this without even telling Jerri
and Amber about it and risking them pulling some kind of foolish
stunt.
EPISODE
10:
What
happened:
Colby won immunity and Nick
was voted out.
Votes:
Amber, Colby, Keith, &
Tina voted Nick.
Elizabeth & Roger voted
Amber.
Nick voted
Keith.
The good:
Another Ogakor gone would have
brought the two tribes tied with Colby and Keith with the most votes
against. The athletic Nick was the
obvious choice. Elizabeth and
Roger’s vote seems to represent another hope at an errant vote from
Ogakor.
The
dubious: Nick’s vote on Keith is a
dubious one. He should vote with
his tribe – he would have kicked himself if someone in Ogakor had voted Amber
and he went out anyway – and if they are to put votes on anyone, it should be
Tina.
Who’s
Left:
Amber, Colby, Elizabeth,
Keith, Roger & Tina
Votes
against:
Colby - 5, Keith – 4,
Jury: Alicia, Jerri & Nick
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Elizabeth
& Roger
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments: An alternative for Kucha would have been to put
votes on Tina. If one of them can
make it into the final four, it works tremendously to their advantage if one or
both of the dominant pair have the most votes against.
EPISODE
11:
What
happened:
Colby won immunity and Amber
was voted off.
Votes:
Elizabeth, Keith, Roger
& Tina voted Amber.
Amber & Colby voted
Roger.
The
interesting: Colby’s vote on Roger
is interesting as well. Was he out
of the loop not wanting to get rid of Amber (a smart move on his part), or was
this an attempt at jury vote buying (it may have worked)?
The
dubious: Tina voting Amber was a
dubious move. Amber is much better
to have in the final four then either Elizabeth or Roger. Amber not joining forces with Elizabeth
and Roger is dubious as well.
Likely, she didn’t know she was going, and perhaps a coup at five (with
Keith and the remaining Kucha) may have been better anyway, even though unlikely
with these players. Finally, this
may have been a good episode for Keith to make a move, pairing up with Amber and
voting out Tina. A couple of things
were unclear her though. Would
Amber have gone along and would they have been able to draw in the needed Roger
and Elizabeth votes? It’s
unsure.
The mistakes:
From Kucha’s perspective they would
prefer the strongest immunity contender gone, especially if that person was in
the dominant alliance. Colby won
immunity, but Keith would have done well as a back-up choice. They should have teamed up with
Amber.
Who’s
Left:
Colby, Elizabeth, Keith,
Roger & Tina
Votes
against:
Colby - 5, Keith – 4,
Jury: Alicia, Amber, Jerri &
Nick
Alliances:
Dominant
Weaker Tribe: Elizabeth
& Roger
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments: Tina and Colby’s biggest threat is a coup. Not planning to take Amber to the final
four opened the possibility of a coup right here. Jerri was an aggressive player and
needed to go. Amber was a
marshmallow and likely should have been kept over Elizabeth and Roger. The next possibility of a coup occurs at
the final four with Keith teaming up with whoever is the fourth and targeting
Colby in a tie vote. Having the
weakest possible immunity contender, that is the least aggressive in play with
the most possible votes against, decreases the chances of a coup at four. Amber seems to contain these qualities
the most.
It is interesting to note
that having Amber gone works a bit to Keith’s advantage. Could it be that he convinced Tina to
make this move? Remember that Colby
was out of the loop this time.
Personally, I don’t think so but it is a fun thing to
consider.
Another fun thing to
consider is if Elizabeth and Roger decided to target Keith and Amber didn’t buy
she was going and still voted Roger.
It would have been a three way tie between Roger, Amber and Keith. In the revote, only Elizabeth, Colby and
Tina would have been allowed to revote and only would have been able to vote
either Roger, Amber of Keith.
EPISODE
12:
What
happened:
Colby wins immunity and
Roger is voted off.
Votes:
Colby, Keith & Tina
voted Roger
Elizabeth & Roger voted
Keith
The
interesting: Targeting Roger instead
of
The
dubious: Elizabeth and Roger have
tried to score with an errant vote twice before and their votes went
wasted. These votes should have
gone on Tina.
Who’s
Left:
Colby, Elizabeth, Keith
& Tina
Votes
against:
Keith - 6, Colby – 5,
Jury: Alicia, Amber, Jerri, Nick &
Roger
Alliances:
Dominant Pair: Colby &
Tina
Third:
Keith
Fourth:
Strongest
Position:
Tina
Comments: Putting votes on Keith was not the right move as it
completely closes the door on the possibility of a coup at four unless Keith
wins the immunity challenge. If
Colby had the most votes against, and he doesn’t win immunity, Elizabeth and
Keith could take out Colby in a tie vote and elevate both their
positions.
EPISODE
13:
What
happened:
Colby won immunity and
Votes:
Colby, Keith & Tina
voted
The good: With Colby winning immunity, everyone’s vote here is
largely forced.
Who’s
Left:
Colby, Keith &
Tina
Jury: Alicia, Amber, Elizabeth, Jerri, Nick &
Roger
Alliances:
Dominant Pair: Colby &
Tina
Third:
Keith
Strongest
Position:
Tina
The
comments: It would have been
interesting to see if Elizabeth and Keith would have taken out Colby here. It would have been a smart move on their
part. The only way in which it
would not be Tina and Colby in the final two would be if Keith wins the final
immunity challenge, in which case he’ll take Tina. Tina would slaughter Keith in the final
vote and Tina and Colby would be to close to call.
EPISODE
14:
What
happened:
Colby wins immunity and
Keith is voted off.
The
dubious: Although it’s hard to fault
Colby for sticking to the alliance that got him there, one can’t help but
realize that he would, in all likelihood, have won against Keith. One should be careful putting this down
as a given though. Colby taking out
someone whom everyone knows he was tightly allied with may have angered so many
of the jury that he might of actually lost.
Tina wins the vote 4 -
3
Votes:
Alicia, Elizabeth, Jerri
& Keith voted Tina.
Amber, Nick & Roger
voted Colby.
Comments: The funny thing in this game was that it was
extremely difficult to tell whether Tina and Colby were allied or if it was Tina
and Keith. Colby continually
winning the challenges made it unclear was to whether Tina and Keith would have
made a move against him or not, though now we know that wasn’t in the
cards. Having Colby vote Roger when
Amber went out added to the drama.
The producers did their best to hide the Tina – Colby connection as well,
very rarely showing them together and instead concentrating on the relationship
between Tina and Keith.
Picking between Tina and
Colby as the better player is a tough call as reflected by the close vote. I think what made the difference though
was Tina’s ability to act as the moderator of the tribe, facilitating the social
integration of everyone, while Colby definitely had his problems with a couple
of players.
