SURVIVOR-AFRICA VOTING ANALYSIS
EPISODE
1: What
happened: Boran loses immunity and
Diane is voted out Votes: Clarence, Ethan, Jesse,
Kelly, Kim J and Lex voted Diane Diane and Tom voted
Clarence The good: Diane was the good choice after she fainted during
the immunity challenge. Diane’s
putting a vote on the person she had the greatest conflict with was also
good. The
mistakes: Tom’s vote on Clarence was
dumb. Treating someone like a child
certainly doesn’t improve tribe moral and having unnecessary votes on your
tribe-mates can prove fatal after the merge. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Jesse, Kelly, Kim J, Lex & Tom Samburu: Brandon, Carl, Frank, Kim P, Linda, Lindsey, Silas
& Teresa Votes
against: Clarence –
2 Strongest
positions: Boran: Kelly &
Lex Samburu: Carl &
Silas Comments: In Boran Lex, Ethan and Tom already have an alliance
by this stage and are dominating the tribe. Kelly and Kim J are on the outside along
with Jesse, and Clarence is being shunned completely. In Samburu the tribe is splitting along
age lines. Carl and Teresa are
already a pair, backed up by Frank and Linda, while the younger players in
Lindsey, Brandon and Kim P have already bonded as well. This tribe is heading for a collision
already. Apparently Silas made a
pact with Lindsey on the hick to camp. My picks for strongest
players are based upon the leaders
of their respective alliances. EPISODE
2: What
happened: Boran loses immunity and
Jesse is voted out. Votes: Clarence, Ethan, Kelly, Kim
& Lex vote Jesse Jesse and Tom vote
Clarence The dubious: Although Jesse was ill, she was still a stronger
competitor then Kim Johnson, making her a dubious choice, especially considering
this represents their third consecutive challenge loss. From the alliance building perspective,
it works well for Lex and Ethan to take out a strong competitor. From Clarence and the ladies perspective
however, they would have been better off trying to secure control of the tribe
themselves. Taking out Tom would
not have weakened the tribe overtly and would have put them in
control. The mistakes:
Tom putting another vote Clarence
was stupid on the verge of racist. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Kelly, Kim J, Lex & Tom Samburu: Brandon, Carl,
Frank, Kim P, Linda, Lindsey, Silas & Teresa Votes
against: Clarence –
4 Strongest
positions: Boran: Ethan &
Lex Samburu: Carl & Kim
P Comments: Jesse appeared to be on the mend and even when ill,
she was a stronger competitor then Kim in the challenges. The thing is, Kim would likely a less
aggressive player then Jesse and therefore less dangerous to the dominant
alliance. I’ve taken Kelly and
replaced her with Ethan because she seems to be alone here. Kim J is in great with the boys and
unless she’s putting on a great show to burn them, and there is nothing to
indicate that she is, Kelly is left on her own. The tribe’s shunning of Clarence is
positively shameful. In Samburu the
Geritol alliance (Carl, Teresa, Frank and Linda) is trying to recruit
Silas. I can’t image how this could
work as Silas has got to know he won’t get anywhere as the fifth in an
alliance. This tribe is split four
on four and their first immunity council is bound to be a show. I’ve put Kim P as my second choice as
being in the strongest position because it’s 50/50 which of these two alliance
will come out on top and I see Kim P as the most likely candidate of the Mall
Rats (Brandon, Lindsey and Kim P) to go the furthest, though none have a chance
of winning. These guys simply don’t
have their heads in the game if they think they won’t become targets of everyone
just lying around. A fun alternative line they
may have come out of this episode that was opened up thanks to Tom’s stupid vote
was having the ladies putting three votes on Clarence. With Tom’s vote he would have gone and
Tom would have had egg on his face.
They could have also put three votes on the tribe leader Lex leading to a
tie (Kim J, Kelly and Jesse voting Lex; Ethan, Lex and Clarence voting Jesse and
Tom voting Clarence). There would
have been a revote and Tom would have certainly changed his vote to Clarence,
but when the dust settled Clarence would have had two votes against and Lex
three. At the next opportunity,
Kelly and Kim J could recruit Clarence to take out Lex in a tie vote. Alas, it seems that most of the ladies
in this tribe are too busy flying below the radar then trying to win the game so
none of this was likely to happen.
The thing is, it could have and the moral of the story is not to get too
cute in throwing around useless votes. EPISODE
3: What
happened: Samburu loses immunity and
Carl is voted out Votes: Brandon, Ethan, Kim &
Lindsey voted Carl Carl, Frank, Linda &
Teresa voted Lindsey The tie holds in the revote
and Carl loses in a sudden death immunity challenge. The good: The Geritols did it right by voting for the weakest
person in the other alliance.
Originally that person would have been The
dubious: Carl was a leader and a
decent immunity player. However
this came out, they needed leaders to try and keep the tribe together. The Rats said they picked Carl because
they felt he was more likely to get questions wrong, but I suspect it had more
to do with Silas wanting to be the Alpha Male. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Kelly, Kim J, Lex & Tom Samburu: Brandon, Frank, Kim
P, Linda, Lindsey, Silas & Teresa Votes
against: Clarence – 4, Lindsey –
4 Strongest
Positions: Boran:
Ethan Samburu: Kim
P Comments:
That was certainly an exciting
immunity council, but frankly Silas and Lindsey are way to egocentric to lead
this tribe and I can’t see them pulling this off. Samburu must win the two of the next
three immunity challenges to come out on top, which I can’t see happening with
the dysfunction that is sure to enter in.
Once the merge happens, I suspect the remaining Geritols will be foolish
enough to jump ship and sink their whole tribe. In other words, after their first
immunity council, the Samburu tribe is screwed. The moral of the story, until the merge
it’s team first. I’ve got Kim P as
being in the best position only because I have to pick someone in this
tribe. In Boran I have Ethan over
Lex because he seems to be in closer with Kelly and Kim J, giving him not only
support but options if hanging around Lex and Tom stops working to his
advantage. EPISODE
4: What
happened: Samburu loses immunity and
Linda is voted out. Votes: Brandon, Kim, Lindsey &
Silas voted Linda Frank, Linda & Teresa
voted Silas The good: Linda was the good pick on the part of the Mall
Rats. The
dubious: Forcing greater division in
an already dysfunctional tribe is not going to solve anything. The Geritols are still not in that bad a
position actually because if they can make the merge with their tribe on top,
the remaining ones should have no trouble using Boran support to get rid of the
athletic, aggressive and annoying Silas and Lindsey. Winning immunity challenges should be
their overriding concern. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Kelly, Kim J, Lex & Tom Samburu: Brandon, Frank, Kim
P, Lindsey, Silas & Teresa Votes
against: Clarence – 4, Lindsey – 4,
Silas – 3 Strongest
Positions: Boran:
Ethan Samburu: Kim
P Comments: Although spurred on by the unbelievably poor
leadership skills of Silas, the Geritols are screwing themselves into the ground
as much as they are the Mall Rats.
In Boran, I was beginning to suspect Ethan may be starting to ally with
the ladies, though we would later learn this was never in the cards. Ethan and Lex seem to have no opposition
from within their own tribe, Tom and Kim J are clueless, Kelly is alone and
Clarence has been rendered impotent.
The also are unlikely to be challenged by the completely splintered
Samburu. They may have the easiest
road to victory in the history of this game. If Ethan is in on the strategizing with
Lex then he should have no problem winning in the jury vote. If Lex is the sole strategist in the
group then Lex should come out on top. The next episode promises to
shake up the tribes and it doesn’t take much to guess that three players will be
swapped. If this happens, Samburu
is likely done, as Frank and Teresa will probably waste no time foolishly
joining the forces of Boran. EPISODE 5: What
happened: The game started with a
letter asking three members from each tribe to go on a “quest”. On Boran it was Kelly, Lex & Tom,
while in Samburu it was Frank, Silas & Teresa (big shock). These trios were instructed to switch
tribes. Boran lost the immunity
challenge (actually they threw it) and Silas was voted
out. Votes: Clarence, Ethan, Frank, Kim
J & Teresa voted Silas. Silas voted
Frank. The good: Life could not have been made easier for Clarence,
Ethan and Kim J as Frank and Teresa handed them Silas’ head on a
platter. The
mistakes: Although I don’t think
many people watching were surprised by Frank and Teresa’s move, it was
foolish. They should have joined
forces with Silas and targeted Clarence, especially once they learned he had
four votes against. Silas’ vote on
Frank was also a mistake. Even
without Frank and Teresa’s support, he should have put a vote on Clarence to
give Clarence the most votes against in the game. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Frank, Kim J & Teresa Samburu:
Votes
against: Clarence – 4, Lindsey – 4,
Frank - 1 Strongest
Positions: Boran:
Ethan Samburu:
Kelly Comments:
Samburu couldn’t have done a better
job screwing themselves over if they tried. Obviously, Frank and Teresa’s move was a
mistake but so was Silas’. Clarence
told him that he had four votes against and if Lindsey and company could come
out on top in their new tribe, the two tribes would be tied going into the merge
and it would be Clarence and Boran that would be at the disadvantage. Silas was way to self centered for this
thought to even cross his mind though.
I’ve got Kelly as the best player on Samburu instead of Lex because there
are going to be a lot of free agent players at the merge and she stands a decent
chance of pulling a coup even without Kim J’s help. EPISODE
6: What
happened: Samburu loses immunity and
Lindsey is voted out. Votes:
Kelly, Lex & Tom
voted Lindsey Brandon, Kim P &
Lindsey voted Tom The tie holds in the
revote and Lindsey is gone due to votes against. The
good:
Boran targeting the player they felt had the most votes against and Samburu the
player they felt would do the worse in a sudden death challenge were the right
moves on both parts. Who’s
Left: Boran: Clarence, Ethan,
Frank, Kim J & Teresa Samburu: Brandon, Kelly, Kim
P, Lex & Tom Votes
against: Clarence – 4, Tom - 3, Frank
- 1 Strongest
Positions: Boran:
Ethan Samburu:
Kelly Comments: The Mall Rats had
pretty much a snowball’s chance in hell of keeping the previous votes against
walking panic attack named Lindsey, secret. Lindsey blamed EPISODE
7: What
happened: The tribes merge and
Teresa wins immunity. Clarence is
voted out. Votes: Clarence & Teresa
voted Lex The
good:
Up six players to four, Boran can afford to take out one of their own. Taking out the strongest immunity
contender in Clarence may have been the safest route. The
mistakes: Samburu should have
used the opportunity to put some votes on Lex. Teresa did, but for the wrong reasons,
so I’m not giving her credit for it. Who’s
Left: Votes
against: Tom - 3, Lex – 2, Frank -
1 Alliances: Dominant
Alliance: Ethan, Lex & Tom Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Brandon,
Frank, Kim P & Teresa Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments: I’d like to preface
this by saying that I think it was very unfortunate that no players thought they
could make better use of Clarence.
This is especially true for Kim J and Kelly. From Ethan, Lex and Tom’s point of view,
Clarence is not their most dangerous player, Kelly is. The thing is, to take out Kelly they
would have needed support from Samburu, but I think they were very unlikely to
get it. Because of previous votes
against, they could take out Clarence even without Samburu’s help. That all being said, Clarence seemed
much closer to the guys then to the women in Samburu and it is very likely that
Kelly and Kim J couldn’t have used him to begin with. The thing is, I doubt they tried. By this stage, I think Clarence likely
was the best choice, I just think the situation isn’t the best and a more
aggressive player then Clarence would have happily burned his whole tribe after
being treated the way he was. I
know I would have. Another
alternative here would have been to start taking out Kelly’s potential allies in
Samburu. From Samburu’s
perspective, Clarence was going with or without them and sucking up to Boran
will get them nowhere. They should
have used the opportunity to but some votes on the leader Lex in order to help
facilitate a coup. Teresa put a
vote on Lex, but for all the wrong reasons. The immunity challenge was an endurance
type, and in the end it was just Clarence and Teresa left. Clarence suggested playing
rock-paper-scissors to determine who should win. Teresa accepted and won. Clarence honoured his end of the
agreement, even though he knew it almost certainly meant his leaving the
game. Teresa felt she owed him
something and so didn’t vote for him. Kelly may still be
playing for the coup. If she has
Kim J on her side then she stands a great chance of taking control of this game
with Kim J as her second, a smart move on both their parts. If she is alone, the best she can hope
for is to be a third with either Frank and Teresa or Brandon and Kim P, but
that’s a damn site better then her position in Boran. EPISODE
8: What
happened: Ethan wins immunity and
Kelly is voted out. Votes: Frank, Kelly, Kim P
& Teresa voted Lex The
good:
With Kelly voting their way, Frank, Teresa and Kim P would have to be complete
boneheads not to target Lex.
The
interesting: I’ve found trying to
get into The
blunders: Lex and company voting
out one of their own when it brings the two tribes into a tie with he and Tom
with the most votes against represents the dumbest set of votes since Pagong
didn’t realize that Tagi was voting as a group in Survivor
1. Who’s
Left: Votes
against: Lex – 6, Tom - 3, Frank -
1 Jury: Kelly Alliances: Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Ethan, Kim
J, Lex & Tom Strongest
Position: Frank Comments: Well obviously these
players aren’t picked for their IQ’s.
Just to recap their “logic”, Boran voted Kelly because Lex was convinced
that she was the one that put the vote on him in the previous tribal
council. If you look back, it was
Teresa actually. Voting off one of
your own when it puts you in a tie with the other tribe when two of the
remaining players in your own tribe have the most votes against, is tantamount
to putting a gun to your head. This
was truly a pitiful display. Over
in Samburu, players don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders either. If Boran wants to take out one of their
own, let ‘em and burn them in the tie vote next council, but I think the
situation was more confusing then that.
It seemed from the
episode that Samburu was trying to pull Kelly into a coup, an offer she was
refusing. Lex went absolutely
bonkers, interrogating everyone regarding who put the one extra vote on him in
immunity council. (Perhaps he should look at how many votes other previous
leaders like Colby Donaldson and Richard Hatch amassed during this phase of the
game?) It seems Brandon put a bug
in Lex’s ear by suggesting that Kelly said she was a “free agent”. Lex, determined to kick off Kelly this
round, offers Brandon to join their alliance. My guess is Brandon, already playing the
roll of the turncoat is forced to accept.
Later, Kelly gets wind that she is the one to go, so she goes over to
Teresa and Kim P and offers her loyalty.
I would guess from Teresa and Kim’s perspective, they can’t be sure all
of Boran would be so stupid as to take out Kelly (it is something that is hard
to believe) so they take the safe route and use Kelly to take out Lex. In the meantime, Brandon hears of the
plan to save Kelly, but is likely afraid to step out of his role because if any
of the remaining Borans catch wind that he duped them, then Samburu is
screwed. He keeps his mouth shut,
which is smart, but then does the curious thing of voting for Kelly. It’s hard to believe he’s dumb enough to
think Lex will take him anywhere, so we have to look for ulterior motives. My guess is that he simply wanted to
separate himself from Frank and figured that Lex or Kelly going made little
difference, though it may have been a move to remove a player that was more
allied with Frank and Teresa. If the players in
Samburu have any brains they will wake up the next day and realize what a great
position they are in, mend fences with Brandon to take on the Borans. I’m picking Frank and Teresa over
Brandon and Kim P because they seem more likely to attract any surviving Borans
to vote with them once Lex is gone (the obvious next target). Picking Frank over Teresa is a tough
call. Most jury members vote for
the player they feel best played the game.
We’ve seen Teresa strategizing, and it’s abundantly clear she isn’t no
Tina. I find it curious that they
have never shown Frank talking strategy with anyone, something that I would find
hard to believe. In Survivor 2, the
producers of the show edited Tina in much the same way to keep the audience from
suspecting that she was the true mastermind. I’m beginning to wonder if they’re
editing Frank for much the same reasons. EPISODE
9: What
happened: Lex wins immunity and
Brandon is voted out. Votes: Ethan, Frank, Kim J, Kim
P, Teresa and Tom voted Brandon and Lex voted
Frank The
great:
Ethan, Kim J and Tom seizing control of the tribe from Lex and voting out the
dangerous Brandon. The
dubious: Brandon voting Frank,
though I strongly suspect he only did this once he knew the rest of the tribe
was voting him. The
mistakes: Lex staying loyal with
Brandon and voting Frank. The funny
thing is, I don’t think Lex will ever realize that his tribe-mates just saved
his ass as well. The blunders:
After
just witnessing some of the most idiotic voting in the history of this game, we
get to see the same mistake executed by their opponents. What a weak group of
losers. Who’s
Left: Ethan, Frank, Kim J, Kim P,
Lex, Teresa & Tom Votes
Against: Lex – 6, Tom - 3, Frank -
3 Jury: Kelly &
Brandon Alliances: Dominant Alliance:
Ethan, Kim J, Lex & Tom Weaker Tribe: Frank, Kim
P & Teresa Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments:
Later
interviews with the players revealed that it was Kim P that was the hold out
sticking with Brandon, but I certainly got the impression that the rest of the
tribe didn’t seem to mind so much turning on each other. Players often talk about needing the
deep down desire to win to make it through the physical hardships. These guys seem to have no problem with
the physical, but don’t seem to have enough of the desire to win to have them
put up with each other. On the
other hand, this episode saw the first, and only, example of strong voting as
Ethan, Kim J and Tom saw that they were on a road to nowhere with Brandon in the
group. It’s too bad they let Lex
talk them into putting themselves into such a precarious position in the first
place. After all of this, Lex’s
position within the tribe remains the same. He and Ethan are a pair and Kim J and
Tom are too much the wimps to do anything about it. EPISODE
10: What
happened: Lex wins immunity and
Frank is voted out. Votes: Ethan, Kim J, Kim P,
Lex, Teresa & Tom voted Frank Frank voted Kim
J The
good:
With foolishness apparently behind them, Boran does the only sensible thing and
vote out Samburu’s leader and strongest immunity contender in
Frank. The
dubious: Samburu’s attempts at
sucking up to the Boran are pathetic.
They should be putting votes on Ethan. Who’s
Left: Ethan, Kim J, Kim P, Lex,
Teresa & Tom Votes
Against: Lex – 6, Tom - 3, Kim J –
1 Jury: Kelly, Brandon &
Frank Alliances: Dominant Alliance:
Ethan, Kim J, Lex & Tom Weaker Tribe: Kim P
& Teresa Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments:
There
is not much to talk about with Boran.
In Samburu, their only hope remains the coup and the more votes on the
dominant alliance, the greater the chance of that happening. Ethan should have gotten the votes
here. EPISODE
11: What
happened: Tom wins immunity and
Kim P is voted out. Votes:
Ethan, Kim J, Lex and
Tom voted Kim P Kim P and Teresa voted
Lex The
good:
Despite being up four to two, Boran did the right thing in continuing to remove
Samburu players. Teresa and Kim P’s
attempts to get Kim J to help vote out Lex was a great as anything, but Kim J
did the right thing sticking with her alliance. Who’s
Left: Ethan, Kim J, Lex, Teresa
& Tom Votes
Against: Lex – 8, Tom - 3, Kim J –
1 Jury: Kelly, Brandon, Frank
& Kim P Alliances: Dominant Alliance:
Ethan, Kim J, Lex & Tom Weaker Tribe:
Teresa Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments:
Okay,
why isn’t in any of the Boran’s advantage to remove the fourth in their alliance
Kim J. From Ethan and Lex’s
perspective, Kim J makes a great person to have as a fourth because she is a
weak immunity contender and is unlikely to team up with Tom because they don’t
like each other and she is not an aggressive player. Tom pulling a coup and using Samburu to
get rid of Kim J is foolish on his part as it only moves him from third in the
Ethan/Lex alliance to third in the Teresa/Kim P alliance. Hardly an improvement. Some folks wondered why Kim J didn’t
join with Teresa and Kim P to take out Lex in a tie vote. This is very different from the Amber
situation from Survivor 2 as Amber was the target in that council, so she had
absolutely nothing to loose in a coup.
Kim J has been promised a place in the final four. With Teresa and Kim P, she likely only
moves up to three. On top of this,
if she were so inclined as to pull a coup, she better off doing it with Tom next
council. EPISODE
12: What
happened: Lex wins immunity and
Teresa is voted out. Votes: Ethan, Kim J, Lex and
Tom voted Teresa Teresa voted
Tom The
good:
Lex and Ethan taking out the last of the Samburu and Teresa sticking a vote on
Tom. Teresa’s vote didn’t matter,
so it can’t be counted as a mistake. The
dubious: Tom could have made a
move here. Pairing up Kim and
pulling in Teresa, they could have targeted Ethan. There is doubt that Kim may have played
along though. The
mistakes: This would have been
the time to pull the coup for Kim J.
She had the choice of pairing with Tom or Teresa. Who’s
Left: Ethan, Kim J, Lex &
Tom Votes
Against: Lex – 8, Tom - 4, Kim J –
1 Jury: Kelly, Brandon, Frank,
Kim P & Teresa Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Ethan
& Lex Third:
Tom Fourth: Kim
J Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments: Teresa could have
potentially effected the outcome of this game by putting a vote on Ethan. If Lex won immunity at four and Kim J
and Tom decided to pull a coup (as unlikely as that seems) they would have been
forced to vote Ethan. If Ethan and
Lex were foolish enough to vote Kim J, the it would have come down to a sudden
death challenge with the extra vote on Ethan. The thing is, Teresa later admitted that
Ethan was the player on Boran she most felt deserved to win, so why would she do
this as she is out either way? This
was the episode that Tom and Kim J should have pulled a coup with Teresa. As a pair they could have been one and
two in the new alliance instead of three and four in their present
alliance. What struck me in this
episode however was the possibility that Ethan had been throwing immunity
challenges to Lex. I watched this
challenge very closely on tape and it certainly seemed suspicious. It was this episode that convinced me
that Ethan and Lex were a pair. EPISODE 13 – Part
1: What
happened: Kim J wins immunity and
Tom is voted out. Votes: Ethan, Kim J and Tom
voted Tom Tom voted
Lex The
good:
Once Kim J won the immunity challenge, Ethan, Lex and Tom’s votes were
forced. The
mistakes: Kim J should have voted
Lex with Tom and taken out the strongest immunity contender and perhaps even
show the jury that she wasn’t just a coat tail rider. Who’s
Left: Ethan, Kim J &
Lex Votes
Against: Doesn’t
matter. Jury: Kelly, Brandon, Frank,
Kim P, Teresa & Tom Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Ethan
& Lex Third: Kim
J Strongest
Position: Ethan Comments:
Don’t
make any mistake, the boys would have stuck with their original plan and took
out Kim J if she didn’t win immunity.
As it was, Ethan and Lex had to switch to Tom. Tom was the only person Kim J had a shot
at beating in the final two and she should have kept him. This wouldn’t have been a betrayal as
the boys would have voted her out if they had the chance. As far as Ethan is
concerned, this is as close to a lock is it can get. If Ethan wins immunity,
he’ll pick Lex. Ethan
wins. If Kim J wins immunity,
she’ll pick Ethan. Ethan
wins. If Lex wins immunity,
he’ll pick Ethan. Ethan
wins EPISODE 13 – Part
2: What
happened: Kim J wins immunity and
Lex is voted out.
Mistakes: Although Kim didn’t
believe this, she had a shot at beating Lex. I would have assumed that Brandon and
Kim Powers would have still voted her way and Kelly certainly would have as
well. Ethan and Tom would have been
a lock on Lex. All Kim needed was
one vote from either Frank or Teresa and depending on how the two of them
performed in the final questioning, it could have easily
happened. Ethan wins 5 –
2. Votes: Kelly, Frank, Lex,
Teresa & Tom voted Ethan Brandon & Kim P
voted Kim J Comments:
A game
that was more characterized by mistakes then by great moves, in fact there was
nothing in the way of brilliant alliance voting at all and that was a
shame. In the end, Ethan was the
best player and deserved to win, but it would have been interesting to see how
he would have done against some competition.
