SURVIVOR-MARQUESAS VOTING ANALYSIS
EPISODE
1: What happened: Maraamu looses the challenge and Peter is voted
out. Votes: Gina, Hunter, Patricia, Rob
& Sarah voted Peter Sean & Vecepia voted Sarah Peter voted
Patricia The good: Apparently this is how this went down. Gina, Hunter, Sean, Vecepia and Peter were all going to vote out Sarah. This would have been a good move,
especially for Sean and Peter that were obviously already bonding. Removing Sarah and allowing the blame to
fall to their leader Hunter, would have likely pushed Rob towards them and, when
combined with Vecepia, would have given them the clear
majority in the tribe. However,
Peter began wanting to target Patricia, which got up the hackles of Hunter and
Gina and turned the tide of the voting.
In the end, the only people that voted right were Sean, Vecepia, Patricia and Sarah. You could hardly fault Sarah and
Patricia for voting for a target that wasn’t them. The dubious: Taking out contributors at this stage is always
risky, but from Rob’s perspective Peter was definitely drawing tighter with Sean
and Vecepia and removing him frees up his options
considerably. Trying to have
Patricia go would have definitely worked better for Rob and Sarah
though. The
mistakes: Whatever Peter was saying,
voting out a contributor at the challenges over a floater like Sarah was a
mistake, especially when one considers the strategic advantages of removing
Sarah from Hunter and Gina’s perspective (see below). Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Gina, Hunter, Patricia, Rob, Sarah, Sean and Vecepia Rotu:
Gabriel, John, Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Tammy and Zoe Votes
against: Votes against no longer
count against players so there is no point in keeping track of them. The tie breaker has yet to be
revealed. Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Hunter & Gina Rotu:
John & Zoe Comments: In Maraamu the pairings
are obvious. Sarah used her assets
with the result of having Rob wrapped around her finger and it looks like Gina
might be having the same effect on Hunter.
The brick wall that Peter ran into when he suggested Patricia go,
suggests that Patricia may be in with Hunter and Gina and Sean and Vecepia may be forced to pair out of defense. Rob seemed to bond immediately with
Hunter, but has also been close with Sean and where he goes, Sarah’s vote will
follow. His best move is to ally
with Sean and Vecepia rather then play the fourth and
fifth with Hunter, Gina and Patricia.
Sarah is endearing herself
to no one besides Rob, but it would have been dangerous for Hunter and Gina to
target her at this stage (although getting support from Peter, Sean and Vecepia would have been no problem) as this would have
likely isolated and angered Rob and may have driven him to Sean, Peter and Vecepia.
Perhaps they’re thinking of taking out Sarah soon, but there is a great
chance that Vecepia and Sean will not just role over
and let Hunter run the show and will fink on him, join forces with Sarah and Rob
and target one of the Hunter/Gina/Patricia alliance. The safer move for Hunter would have
been to remove Patricia. It would have been Hunter, Gina, Rob and Sarah against
Sean, Vecepia and Peter. They could have then take out Peter far more safely. The annoying Sarah can always be dealt
with after the merge. Now that
Hunter has committed himself to Patricia in the next vote he is left with either
making the dangerous move on Sarah or weakening the tribe even further by taking
out Vecepia or Sean. Wow, all this in only one
episode. In Rotu the alliances are less obvious. Zoe and Kathy
seem to be bonding, as does Gabriel and John, while Pashel and Robert seem isolated. Tammy and Neleh may be the ones that decide how this plays out. They seem tight with everyone, but
they’ll have to choose sides. Will
they stick together? Will they go
with Zoe and Kathy or Gabriel and John? With the nonsense that is going on in
Maraamu, this is likely the tribe to
watch. EPISODE
2: What happened: Maraamu looses the challenge and Patricia is voted
out. Votes: Rob, Sarah, Sean & Vecepia voted Patricia Gina, Hunter & Patricia
voted Sarah The
great: Rob, Sean and Vecepia’s votes on Patricia seized control of this tribe
from Hunter. All players in this
alliance are sitting with strong seconds as well. The good: Sarah had no choice but to go over as it was her
that was targeted. The
blunders: Rob and Gina’s attack on
Sarah was premature and just took them out of the game. They should have let Patricia go and
gone after Sarah later when Rob had no way of protecting
her. Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Gina, Hunter, Rob, Sarah, Sean and Vecepia Rotu:
Gabriel, John, Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Tammy and Zoe Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Rob & Vecepia Rotu:
John & Paschel Comments: Well that was the earliest yet that I’ve ever seen
anyone throw away the game. Hunter
and Gina’s decision to go after Sarah was too premature as it was too easy to
drum up support for her staying from the others and their decision to let Rob
into the vote was extremely foolish.
Rob has a great second in Sarah.
She’ll continue to vote with him and if he can get her into the final
two, her lazy nature will virtually assure him the million dollars. It was great to see Sean and Vecepia thinking as they seized the opportunity that was
presented to them. Vecepia has the edge over Sean due to her more quiet and
pleasant nature. Hunter and Gina
are now isolated and out of the game.
Even if they survive to the merge (which is unlikely considering their
tribe has already lost two challenges), they are unlikely to be able to pull of
a coup because Hunter’s strength will make him the early target. For Hunter to win, he would have needed
to get on top and stay on top. He’s
no longer on top. Obviously Rotu is the tribe to watch now being up by two players and
with the tensions at Maraamu nowhere near ending. Kathy is so obviously the odd player out
in this tribe (unlike what I previously thought) it would be completely shocking
for them to vote out anyone else in their first immunity council. After that things get very hazy over
there. Strong alliances are not
being formed but there are players that are drawing together. John and Tammy are likely a pair by now. Paschel and
Neleh were forming a bond and Zoe was likely also included to make a trio. EPISODE
3: What happened: Maraamu looses the challenge and Hunter is voted
out. Votes:
Rob, Sarah, Sean & Vecepia voted Hunter Gina & Hunter voted
Sarah The good: Gina and Hunter’s vote on Sarah was their most
obvious move. The
mistakes: Rob and Sarah voting out
the team’s leader and strongest player in Hunter after loosing three immunity
challenges in a row is a mistake to say the least. This tribe cannot afford to loose
another challenge or they are effectively out of the game. The dubious:
I’m giving Vecepia and Sean a bit of the benefit of the doubt. Taking out Hunter opens the door for
Gina to vote with Vecepia, giving her and Sean extra
support over Rob and Sarah, making them the undisputed tribal leaders. This may have been on their minds. It certainly is risky, but perhaps with
a likely swap approaching, it is not a risky as it
appears. Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Gina, Rob, Sarah, Sean and Vecepia Rotu:
Gabriel, John, Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Tammy and Zoe Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Sean & Vecepia Rotu:
John & Paschel Comments:
Maraamu is bucking to take the prize away from Samburu as the most stupid tribe in the history of this
game. After making the great move
of taking advantage of Hunter and Gina’s blunder in the last episode, Rob, Sean,
Sarah and Vecepia make the overly aggressive move of
taking out their strongest player after loosing the first three immunity
challenges in a row. This tribe is
now in a position of not being able to afford another immunity loss. To say the odds of them coming out on
top by the merge are slim is putting it mildly. I’m replacing Rob with Sean in the
strongest players now because I see them using Gina to take out either Rob or
Sarah (likely Rob the way these guys play), but the truth is it will be a tough
go to have anyone from Maraamu
winning. We didn’t see much or Rotu in this episode and very little was given to indicate
alliances. The thought of having to
vote out someone was likely very far from most of these player’s
minds. EPISODE
4: What happened: The episode began with a
game where each player was to stand on an upside down disk which they flipped
over to revel their new tribe, thus each member was randomly assigned to a new
tribe. New
Tribes: Maraamu: Gina, Kathy, Neleh, Paschel and Sarah Rotu:
Gabriel, John, Rob, Robert, Sean, Tammy, Vecepia and
Zoe Maraamu looses the immunity challenge and vote off
Sarah. Votes: Gina, Kathy, Neleh & Paschel vote
Sarah. Sarah votes
Kathy The good: All these picks were
no-brainers. Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Gina, Kathy, Neleh and
Paschel Rotu:
Gabriel, John, Rob, Robert, Sean, Tammy, Vecepia and
Zoe Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Paschel Rotu:
John Comments:
Personally, I felt this was the most
boring Survivor episode every. Like
Survivor - This episode was the first
solid indication of the alliances in Rotu. Watching the players as they were, one
by one, assigned to their new tribes was very illuminating. Zoe was the
first player to go and the first player she looked at when she saw what was
happening was Neleh and she looked at no-one
else. She seemed to as well show
the greatest concern when Paschel and Neleh were seeing which tribe they were going to and she
blew Paschel a kiss, smiled and winked at him as he
walked towards his new tribe-mates.
John seemed the most concerned when Tammy was picking her new tribe and
seemed very relieved when they were still together. Robert and Kathy seemed to elicit very
little reaction from anyone. So
this leads me to the conclusion that Zoe is in league
with Neleh and Paschel, John
and Tammy are a pair, Robert and Kathy are allied with no one. This was further backed up with Tammy’s
confessional that she was very happy with the swap. She likely saw herself in the minority
and Rob, Sean and Vecepia may give them a chance to
get control of the tribe over Paschal and company now that Paschal and Neleh are on the other side. Gabe is the
enigma here. Past episodes seemed
to show him more with Tammy and John, but he didn’t show much of a reaction when
they stayed with his tribe, even when Tammy was hugging him. I’m beginning to wonder if Gabe might be one of these players who refuse to ally with
anyone. If that is the case, he’ll
be gone soon. Gina would be more then
happy just to be part of an alliance so I can see her wanting to team with Neleh and Paschel and getting rid
of Kathy, but tribal lines do run deep so it may be more likely that Neleh and Paschel stay loyal to
Kathy. With so many Rotu’s likely still around come the merge, the middle-game
should prove very interesting. EPISODE
5: What happened: Rotu
looses the immunity challenge and Gabriel is voted out. Votes:
John, Rob, Robert, Sean,
Tammy, Vecepia & Zoe
vote Gabriel Gabriel voted
Rob The good: Rob, Sean and Vecepia’s
votes were the right way to go once they knew Gabe
wasn’t going to vote with them.
John is trying to draw on them to take control of his tribe and their
best bet is to work along side him. The
interesting: Although a little
premature, the attack on Gabe was not without it’s reasons.
With so many Rotu’s still around after the
merge, the winner from this tribe is going to be the player that can draw the
most support early and that means things are going to get ugly. Gabe showed
himself to be allied with no-one and unlikely to support any kind of coup. As such he was a very dangerous
player. The risk was in Rob, Sean
and Vecepia not wanting to play along and going up to
Gabe to make a run at John, which is exactly what they
tried to do. John and company were
probably better off just voting Gabe without telling
the others. The
blunders: Gabriel could have
potentially saved himself by teaming up with Sean, Rob and Vecepia, but if he was playing the game he wouldn’t have
been the target of this vote in the first place. Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Gina, Kathy, Neleh and
Paschel Rotu:
John, Rob, Robert, Sean, Tammy, Vecepia and Zoe Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Paschel Rotu:
John Comments: I think a word of explanation is required because
this one was a little weird. It
became abundantly clear that Gabriel was not prepared to vote with anyone or
even play the game. Having someone
like this around was more dangerous then people like Rob and Sean and with a two
player buffer in this tribe, Rotu can afford to take
out one of their own. The only
really dumb thing that John did was in telling Sean what his plan was. Sean did the smart thing in getting
together with Rob and Vecepia and approach Gabe about taking out John, only to discover Gabe is not here to play the game, so the coup wasn’t
possible. One could argue though
that taking out Gabe was a risk at this stage, that they could have taken out Rob and then taken out
Gabe after throwing the next challenge without the
risk of a tie. The downside of this
argument though is the effect this would have and Sean and Vecepia. Would
this help to push them over to Paschel and company
after the merge? It’s a tough
call. This seems to be the first
time that firm alliances really took hold in the Rotu
tribe. John and Tammy were likely a pair from the beginning, but now needed to firm
things up. They brought in Robert
who appeared to be more then happy to play the third but when Zoe was approached she seemed to avoid eye contact. Zoe seemed to
be less then fully committed to this alliance likely because she still feels
some loyalty to Paschel, Neleh and maybe even Kathy. Robert seems rock solid, but Zoe seems iffy to me. Despite a strong alliance of
three with a possible fourth, John’s and Tammy’s positions are still
precarious. Zoe is a luke warm fourth and is unlikely to stick with the
alliance if she determines it is not in her best interest. Once the merge comes they’ll be ten
players and John and Tammy can likely only really count on Robert. They will need to make a decision as to
whether they will get more support from Rob, Sean and Vecepia to take on the new Maraamus or to use the new Maraamus to take out Rob or Sean. It’s a tough call and they may not be
able to get the support either way. EPISODE
6: What happened: Maraamu looses the immunity challenge and Gina is voted
out. Votes: Kathy, Paschel & Neleh vote
Gina Gina voted
Kathy The good: Old tribal lines run deep and these were pretty
predictable votes. Who’s
Left: Maraamu: Kathy, Neleh and Paschel Rotu:
John, Rob, Robert, Sean, Tammy, Vecepia and Zoe Strongest
positions: Maraamu: Paschel Rotu:
John Comments:
Oh, I’m sure so many people just
couldn’t understand how they could vote out that wonderful Gina instead of
annoying Kathy. Well, here’s
why. Both Paschel and Neleh are not gamers
(their reaction to Gabe’s departure tells us that) and
in the end Gina would have been more understanding of her being voted off then
Kathy. After all, they weren’t
together from the beginning. It was
Kathy’s reaction to Gabe’s departure that I found
noteworthy. You could almost hear
her saying, “now that was interesting”.
Perhaps she’s more of a gamer then I originally thought, not a strategist
mind you, but someone who doesn’t forget it’s a game. She could be of great use when the Rotu alliances beginning warring after the
merge. Over in Rotu, John seems to have completely abandoned any thoughts
of using Rob, Sean and Vee as Rob has foolishly
decided to make John his enemy number one.
Bad move considering John likely needs him, so he was Rob’s best
hope. Editing really played up the
John, Tammy, Zoe, Robert alliance, a sure sign that
this is not how it’s going to play out.
The hope of any opposition however rides on the gamesmanship of Paschel and Neleh. When Jeff Probst asked the new Maraamu if
they would have kept as a strong four if they all made it to the merge, Paschel replied absolutely. This comment seems to indicate that he
thinking about family first and alliances second. EPISODE
7: What happened: The tribes merge. Kathy wins the immunity challenge and
Rob is voted out. Votes: John, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Tammy,
Vecepia & Zoe vote
Rob Rob & Sean vote
John Kathy votes Zoe The good: Although the competing alliances in Rotu may have loved to have taken on each other (Kathy and
John likely being the competing targets) Rob painted way too much of a target on
himself with his shenanigans and needed to be taken out. Nobody could tell which way this guy
would jump next. Originally, I felt
Vecepia’s vote on Rob as dubious, but later it was
revealed that Vecepia was the fifth in the Rotu alliance.
As such, her best bet was to lay low until the time is
right. The
dubious: Kathy’s vote on Zoe is dubious though.
If she wanted to attack the old Rotus, she
should have made a serious run at John. Who’s
Left: John, Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean,
Tammy, Vecepia and Zoe Alliances: Dominant Alliance: John,
Robert, Tammy & Zoe Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Sean &
Vecepia Strongest
position: Paschel Comments: Rob, Rob, Rob, what are we to do? John has been telling Rob and company
for some time that his plan was to first take out Kathy and the thing is, he very likely was telling the truth. Rob would have none of that though and
so alienated himself from the other members of Rotu
that his only option left was to ally with Kathy. It turns out this was a great move for
him, but he and Kathy couldn’t keep their mouths shut and in the end most of the
players were left with little choice but to take out Rob. As for my strongest position
pick, with so many old Rotus left, the players are
going to have to try and depower each other and it is
the player that can drum up the most support that will come out on top. Neleh, Paschel and Kathy are likely in the better position because
Sean and Vecepia will be better off allying with them
then with the stronger John, Tammy and Robert. Where Zoe
falls in all this will also be interesting to watch. I’m picking Paschel over the rest because he has a strong second in
Neleh and will likely garner more vote then her in the
final two. If Neleh and Paschel however decide
that they are not going to play this game then they will default it to John and
Tammy. EPISODE
8: What happened: Tammy won the immunity
challenge and John was voted out. Votes:
Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Sean, Vecepia & Zoe voted
John John, Robert & Tammy
voted Sean The
great: Kathy, Neleh and Paschel made a great
move here, seizing control of the game from the old Rotu alliance along with Sean and Vecepia. The good: Sean and Vecepia made the
right move, but it was largely forced by the fact that Sean was the target. John, Tammy and Robert voting Sean was
also likely their best play in a difficult situation that may have not worked
out no matter what they did. Their
alternative was to try and use Sean and Vecepia to
take out Paschel or Kathy, but it seems unlikely that
these two would have played along. The
dubious: Zoe suddenly thinking that she can make it anywhere by
sucking up to the new alliance is foolish.
Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean,
Tammy, Vecepia and Zoe Jury: John Alliances: Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Robert, Tammy
& Zoe Strongest
position: Paschel Comments:
Finally we have an opposition that
is using their heads and not waiting to begin thinking strategically only when
it is their heads on the blocks.
The fact that it took until the fourth installment of
Survivor for us to finally have a coup, bespeaks to how weak so many of the
previous players were. No
free ride for the dominant alliance this time. Paschel and
Neleh finally woke up to the fact that if they played
this game straight up, they would have been going out fifth and sixth at best,
so they decided to do something about it.
Something that caught the supremely confident (on the
verge of arrogant) John, Tammy, Robert and Zoe
completely by surprise. I
guess it never occurred to them that everyone in the game just might not be
there to help them win. Go
figure? As I’ve mentioned a couple
of times, John’s and Tammy’s positions were not nearly as strong as they likely
thought. Perhaps their biggest
mistake was in taking out Gabriel a little ways back. It was this boot that marked the
beginning of Paschel and Neleh waking up and realizing there is a game going on. If they instead decided to simply take
out Rob and then played to take out the remaining Maraamu, Paschel and Neleh may never have woken up until it was too late. It’s like they say, hindsight is always
20/20. I’m sticking with Paschel as being in the best position as he seems more
popular with the original Rotu alliance, which is sure
to make up the bulk of the jury. EPISODE
9: What happened: Tammy won immunity and Zoe was voted out. Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean,
Tammy & Vecepia voted Zoe Zoe
voted Robert The
great: This was more then just a
whittling down of the other alliance.
This was also Neleh, Paschel, Sean and Vecepia taking
away a potential second from Kathy whether they were thinking that way or
not. The
dubious: Zoe once again pretends she’s part of the dominant group and
although voting for the turncoat may have proved satisfying, in the end it
doesn’t improve the situation for Robert and Tammy. They should be trying to show Zoe the error of her ways and drawing her back in and then
working on the divisions between the dominant five, which certainly
exist. The mistakes:
Kathy just voted out a potential
second. Her best play would likely
have been to stick with Zoe and team up with Sean and
Vecepia to take control of this
game. Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean,
Tammy and Vecepia Jury: John & Zoe Alliances: Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe: Robert &
Tammy Strongest
position: Paschel Comments:
With Zoe
out of the picture, Kathy becomes a bit of a free radical. Whom she decides to side with will
likely determine the outcome of this game.
One has to wonder if Sean has attempted to make a final two pact with
Kathy by this stage. Kathy’s
discarding of Zoe however, seems to indicate that she
doesn’t really have her head in this game.
She had a chance to seize control by seconding herself to Zoe and teaming with Sean and Vecepia to take out either Robert, or if they were truly
ruthless, Paschel. It would have been the four of them
against Tammy, Paschel and Neleh. Kathy
and Zoe could have easily taken out Sean or Vee when the time was right and winning the final jury vote
would have been a slam dunk. EPISODE
10: What happened: Robert won immunity and
Tammy was voted out. Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Sean & Vecepia voted Tammy Robert & Tammy voted
Vecepia The good: For Sean, Vecepia and
Kathy, this was an easy choice once Robert won immunity as Sean and Vecepia wouldn’t have been able to get the support to take
out Neleh or Paschel who
represent their biggest threats and for Kathy, this keeps her options open as to
which pair to align with.
The dubious: This vote smells like sour grapes to me since she
didn’t ally with them in the episode. The
mistakes: Neleh and Paschel should have used
Robert’s and Tammy’s support to take out Sean or Vecepia at this stage.
Removing her would have forced Kathy to stay in their camp.
Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Robert, Sean and
Vecepia Jury: John, Zoe &
Tammy Alliances: Dominant
Weaker
Weaker Tribe:
Robert Strongest
position: Paschel Comments:
It is still unclear where Kathy’s
support lies at this stage of the game.
If it is with Neleh and Paschel, then the three of them should have used Robert’s
and Tammy’s support to take out Sean, their biggest threat. If Kathy is in with Sean and Vecepia (likely her better move as she has a better chance
of beating them in the final two) then Paschel and
Neleh especially need to get rid of Sean. This would have likely ended any
potential thoughts of Kathy deserting them later in the game and forced her to
play the third in their alliance. EPISODE
11: What happened: Vecepia won immunity and Robert was voted
out. Votes: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Sean & Vecepia voted Robert Robert voted
Sean The good: All the votes except Robert’s and Kathy’s were solid
votes. The
dubious: Kathy seemed to give Robert
a potential way out here when she considered using his vote along with Sean’s
and Vecepia’s to take out Paschel. Robert
refused to take out Paschel, which to me just
indicates how little the guy had his head in this game. I’m giving him a dubious, because it is
not entirely clear that Kathy (or Sean and Vee for
that matter) where prepared to go all the way with this. The mistakes:
Kathy could have taken out Paschel even without Robert’s help and should have done so
with Sean and Vecepia. Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel, Sean and Vecepia Jury: John, Zoe, Tammy &
Robert Alliances: Dominant
Weaker
Strongest
position: Paschel Comments: On the surface, these votes seem very simple but the
reality is far more involved. First
off, Kathy seemed to be seriously considering the option of bringing in Robert
as a second and shooting to take out either Paschel or
Neleh.
This would not have been a bad move on her part at all as with Robert as
a second, it would have been her and him against Sean and Vecepia with Neleh the deciding
vote, and this is where the risk lay.
Would Neleh have been so pissed to team with
Sean and Vee to take out Kathy? Likely not, but this represented a less
attractive option then teaming up with Zoe
earlier. Robert bailed on her
anyway and refused to vote Pascel (a bizarre position
to take if you ask me). The thing
is, Kathy and company didn’t need his help. With Neleh and
Paschel voting Robert, all they had to do was put
three votes on Pappy to ensure victory.
Robert could have thanked them latter. Then again, with his weird sense of
morality, he might have done something bizarre latter to burn Kathy though not
likely as the only people this would have helped was Sean and Vee. EPISODE
12: What happened: Kathy won immunity and Sean
was voted out. Votes: Kathy, Neleh & Paschel voted
Sean Sean & Vecepia voted Neleh The good: Neleh, Paschel, Sean and Vecepia’s votes
were largely forced. The
dubious: Kathy likely picked the
wrong pair in which to join. Sean
promised her a final two birth with him, but with Neleh and Paschel Kathy sits no
better then third and is forced to have to win the final immunity
challenge. I’m stepping this up to
dubious (rather then a mistake) as, ironically, her vote was likely popular with
the jury and may have bought her the win if she makes the final two. The thing is,
if she were in the final two with Sean, then likely much of the jury would have
voted anyone but Sean. Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh, Paschel and Vecepia Jury: John, Zoe, Tammy, Robert
& Sean Alliances: Dominant Pair: Neleh & Paschel Third:
Kathy Fourth: Vecepia Strongest
position: Paschel Comments: Although I still have Paschel as the strongest position, the interesting thing is
that Kathy stands a pretty good chance of pulling this off. Barring Vecepia winning immunity, the final three will likely be
Paschel, Neleh and Kathy
(these players aren’t gamers enough to do anything else). The final challenge has been an
endurance type in two of the previous three Survivors. Kathy would certainly be the favourite to win and would likely boot the more popular
Paschel.
The jury would then have to choose between the “princess” or the person that booted Sean. From a personal note, I was
pretty bummed after this episode. I
was really hoping for Kathy to team with Sean and Vecepia. As it
was, I found it difficult to support anyone in the dominant alliance. I found Kathy’s logic to be scattered
and irrational and Paschel and Neleh I saw as complete hypocrites in their criticisms of
the alliances of John and Tammy or Sean and Vecepia as
they themselves had the tightest bond of anyone. I was so glad to see the odds get beat
by Vecepia. EPISODE 13 – Part
1: What happened: Vecepia won immunity and Paschel
was eliminated. Votes: Kathy & Vecepia voted Neleh Neleh
& Paschel voted Kathy The tie holds and the player
to be eliminated was determined by having each of the three players without
immunity reach into a bag and pull out coloured
stones. Paschel pulled out the purple stone and was eliminated from
the tribe. The good: All these votes were mostly forced once Vecepia won immunity. Who’s
Left: Kathy, Neleh and Vecepia Jury: John, Zoe, Tammy, Robert,
Sean & Paschel Alliances: Dominant Pair: Neleh & Vecepia Third:
Kathy Strongest
position: Vecepia Comments: Although it would have been in Kathy’s best interest
to vote with Vecepia regardless of how immunity had
turned out, it was likely not going to happen without Vecepia winning immunity and offering a deal to Kathy. At this point in the game, it was really
beginning to look like Kathy was going to fall ass backwards into the win,
though the alliance with Vecepia is fragile at. In fact, I really don’t see it as an
alliance at all. Vecepia has no reason to be loyal to Kathy as it was Vee that saved Kathy from elimination, not the other way
around. Without this loyality, she should take out Kathy should she win
immunity. Similarly, Neleh should take out Kathy as well. If Kathy were to win, she would likely
take Vee due to the debt she owes her. She would win against either
anyway. This is beyond a doubt the
most dynamic final three that has yet to be seen. By the way, Paschel now has the distinction of being the only player
eliminated from Survivor without ever earning a single
vote. EPISODE 13 – Part
2: What happened: Neleh
won immunity and voted out Kathy. The good: Neleh made the right
choice in taking out Kathy. She
certainly would have lost to her with the jury. Vecepia wins 4 – 3. Votes: John, Tammy, Robert &
Sean voted Vecepia. Zoe,
Paschel and Kathy voted Neleh. Comments:
In a final two that was very reminiscent
of Richard and Kelly in Survivor – The immunity challenge was
interesting. The challenge was the
common “hands on the idol” endurance challenge. Kathy was the first to fall, at which
point Vecepia made the deal with Neleh that if she allowed Neleh to
win the challenge, Neleh
would in turn agree to take Vee into the final
two. I’m not sure if this was the
best move for Vecepia. Neleh could
easily make the deal and then vote the way she wanted to anyway, but the main
reason was that Neleh was likely to vote out Kathy
anyway and making this deal with Kathy in earshot likely just lost Vee that jury vote (though perhaps she didn’t have it
anyway). Vecepia was in a position that was reminiscent of Richard
Hatch’s in Survivor – This edition of Survivor
definitely presented the players with the toughest competition, but through the
chaos the cream rose to the top in the end. Luck certainly smiled on Vecepia, especially in that second last immunity challenge,
but one has to give her credit for how she played. She worked well with people, kept her
cards close to her chest and took advantage of opportunities when they presented
themselves. In the end she will be
remembered as one of the best to play this game.
