SURVIVOR
EPISODE 1 What
Happened: All sixteen players arrived on the island together and were
instructed to sit in two sets of seats separating the women from the men. The two eldest players (Jake and Jan)
were then permitted to pick their tribes by alternately making their picks and
alternating between picking men and women.
Jan got the first pick, and this is how the two picked their teams. Jan (Chuay Gahn) Comments Jake (Sook Jai) Comments Ted In a confessional, Jan admitted to being intimidated at
this process and I think the young males scared her. Not a terrible pick, but I think
Jed would have been much better. Stephanie Certainly seems to be the most athletic of the women in
the group. Great
pick. Helen Again not a terrible pick. I’m not sure Helen looses that
much physically to the rest of the women left, and maturity is definitely
an asset as well. Ken While Jan is going for maturity, Jake is going for
brawn. I think Jake is doing
the smarter thing, though Jed might have been a better pick. John Now it is clear that Jan doesn’t want to surround
herself with athletic players, likely because she is scared that she will
become an obvious first target.
This is a foolish strategy.
First, athletic players will decrease the chances of you going to
council in the first place and second, it is easier for an athletic team
to carry a weaker player. A
weaker tribe is more likely to feel the urge to purge those less athletic
people. Penny Penny, Erin or Tanya are all sensible picks here,
though I can see how Ghandia Picks the weakest female sitting there. This was likely her worst possible
pick. Jed Jed would have been my first male pick. He strikes me as strong, loyal and
not a gamer, making him a perfect player to have in a tribe to be ditched
later. Brian Jan seems to be realizing now how weak her team is
looking and was likely choosing between Brian and Robb. She made the better pick
here. Shii Ann Interesting pick as Tanya and Erin appear more
athletic. Perhaps Jake is
thinking he can sacrifice that a bit in order not to have hot babes to
attract is young males. Tanya Between her and Erin, I think Jan made the right pick
here. Robb Although picking Robb runs the risk of creating a
younger, aggressive alliance in his group, he probably feels he can get
the best over a goofy character like Robb. He’s likely right. Clay No choice here.
Jan did fine with her last three picks, but let too much good
material go early on. Erin Erin seemed bewildered that she went last, but I can
perfectly understand why the older captains would not want her around
distracting the younger males. Chuay Gahn loses the immunity challenge and vote out
John. Votes: Brian, Clay, Ghandia, Jan, Ted & Tanya voted John Helen voted Clay John voted Ghandia The good: John’s
vote was the right one. With such a
weak tribe, Chuay Gahn has got to become more competitive. Ghandia is obviously not as athletic as
the rest and her performance with the puzzle in the challenge shows she’s not
great with the mental challenges either.
Ghandia and Tanya are also voting right. As the two weakest players (Tanya is
ill), drawing attention to voting someone else works for them. The dubious:
Although removing a contributor like John is always a risky move this early,
especially considering the weakness of this tribe, it is not without its
advantages. The dominant alliance
of Brian, Clay, Jan and Ted is already forming. Removing a smart player likes John
removes their only significant opponent. The mistakes:
What the heck Helen thinks she’s doing is beyond me. Voting for someone because you feel he
deserves the money least is a pretty dumb move. You’ve got to vote as if there is only
one player that deserves the money and that’s you. Play towards that end. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Ghandia, Helen, Jan, Tanya and
Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Jed, Ken, Penny, Robb, Shii Ann and
Stephanie Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian & Ted Sook Jai: Jake & Ken Comments: Let’s start with Chuay Gahn. Ted is already emerging as the tribe’s
leader and is drawing players towards him.
These players include Brian, Jan, Clay and Ghandia. Ted seems tightest with Jan and Brian
and is already spending a good deal of time with the two of them. Clay is naturally bonding with the two
men and the beginning of a four player alliance is already forming. Although Jan’s tribe picks seem rather
dopy to me and she admitted in a teary confessional that she is no leader, she
is latching on to the right person.
Ghandia and Helen don’t seem to have their heads wrapped around this and
Tanya seems too busy trying to keep her lunch down then to be thinking about
anything else. Ted seems to be
building himself a nice little alliance.
His big task will be to get it deep into the game intact. Just to explain my strongest position
picks, Ted seems in a position to draw the most support and Brian simply seems a
sharp player that is here to play. Tensions are much higher in Sook Jai where the players, led
by Robb, seem to be so busy trying to prove they’re the most useful that nothing
is coordinated and little is getting done.
It is very obvious though that it is Jake that is the brains in this
tribe. Robb is another one of the
young, aggressive males that have no idea of how to work with people and will
likely not make the jury. Jed
already seems to be isolating himself and Stephanie was no where to be
seen. Erin seems to be drawing to
Ken, and Ken seems to be getting along with most everyone, except Jed, putting
him in a pretty good position. EPISODE
2 What
Happened: Chuay Gahn loses the immunity challenge and vote out
Tanya. Votes: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan & Ted voted Tanya Ghandia & Tanya voted Helen The good: Brian,
Clay, and Ted got it right this time.
They desperately need to beef up this tribe and booting the ill Tanya was
likely their best move. Jan and
Helen probably did the best thing playing along, but they did have
alternatives The mistakes:
They voted John because they didn’t like him and now Ghandia and Tanya are
extending this strategy to Helen.
Helen is a contributor and should be wooed as a potential ally instead of
being targeted. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Ghandia, Helen, Jan and Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Jed, Ken, Penny, Robb, Shii Ann and
Stephanie Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian & Ted Sook Jai: Jake & Penny Comments: Chuay Gahn is really paying for Jan’s mistakes in how she
selected this tribe. Family is
fine, but when you stack these two tribes together physically, it’s not hard to
see that Sook Jai is the stronger.
The alliances forming should be obvious. We have Ted, Brian and Clay with Jan
drawn in with Ted. Ghandia
definitely occupies the lowest wrung in this tribe, so flying below the radar is
not a bad strategy for Helen and Jan as Ghandia is the likely next target. If Chewy Gahn loses enough players that
Helen or Jan gets the boot, they will be in the minority at the merge
anyway. Once the merge occurs,
Helen and Jan will be in a good position to pull a coup on the dominant males in
this tribe. Being the leader is not
important. One more interesting
thing to note in this tribe, the torches carried by the players have different
coloured rings on the staff. In
this tribe, five of them are gold and three of them are silver. John took a gold one out of the game
episode one, and the rest of the golds were taken by Brian, Ghandia, Tanya and
Ted. However in this episode, as
they walked into their second tribal council, it appears that some trading had
been going on as now Brian, Clay, Jan and Ted had gold torches. My guess is that they smelled something
suspicious and traded torches with the unsuspecting Ghandia and Tanya in case
the torch colours were the bases of a future swap. In Sook Jai tensions are much higher with there being a
number of childish personalities lead by Robb, Jed and Stephanie. There seems to be a number of isolated
players. Robb suddenly becoming so
chummy with Stephanie and Jed struck me as strange, especially when he joined
them in refusing to eat the shell fish that the other five gathered. My guess is that Robb ran into a brick
wall trying to form alliances with the other five and is now working on Jed and
Stephanie. The other player that
strikes me as a bit isolated is Shii Ann even though she appears in the center
of the dominant five. Her
confessionals centered on the dysfunction in the tribe and she is certainly not
a happy camper. Even after the
reward challenge, she was not celebrating with her tribe mates. That makes the dominant alliance in this
tribe Erin, Ken, Jake and Penny.
I’m guessing Erin is in with Ken, and Penny is potentially in with
Jake. Shii Ann is in with these
guys and appears to be closer to Jake, giving him and Penny a likely edge. EPISODE
3 What
happened: Sook Jai loses the immunity challenge and vote out Jed. Votes: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny & Shii Ann voted Jed Jed, Robb & Stephanie voted Shii Ann The good: Jed,
Robb and Stephanie voting for Shii Ann was likely their best move given the
situation they were in. The mistakes: I
can understand the dominant alliance wanting to clear out some deadwood, but
they’ve got to realize that reducing the numbers in their tribe this early is
hurting all of their chances. The
dominant alliance in this tribe could choose between Jed, Robb or Stephanie, and
I think we’re really splitting hairs between the three. Basically I went with the mistake
ranking based on the fact that they threw the challenge. It’s too early for that with likely
three more challenges before the merge. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Ghandia, Helen, Jan and Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny, Robb, Shii Ann and
Stephanie Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian & Ted Sook Jai: Jake & Penny Comments: I’ve got to say that, as a group, Jed, Robb and Stephanie has
got to be the worst players this game has yet to come across. This is especially true for Jed and
Stephanie. How you think you can
win the game by being moody and isolating yourself is beyond me. Physical strength can only carry you so
far. It was obvious from this
challenge that the five that voted out Jed were not exactly trying when it came
to the immunity challenge. This was
a mistake this early in the game.
Players do not know what is coming and the more members of your tribe you
have around the better. Bringing
yourself within one of being tied with the other tribe is an unnecessary risk,
especially considering that a swap soon is a very real possibility. If your tribe has an overwhelming
majority, it stands a good chance of controlling both tribes after a swap. If you want to start throwing
challenges, wait until you are closer to the merge and guaranteed a majority
after the seventh immunity challenge.
An interesting impromptu interview with Jed was made when he
was leaving the CBS studios the morning after this episode aired. He said he was truly surprised by the
vote and was told by Penny that Shii Ann was going to be the target. Now this could have been just Penny
covering herself, but if Jed (and likely Stephanie) thought they had the support
of Penny and others, it would explain their apathy to trying to get a more
secure position within the tribe.
There is a lot going on in this tribe and figuring alliances is a tough
call, but it seems that it is Penny that is in the middle of everything that is
both good and bad about this tribe, the bad being the high level of dysfunction
that permeates. The team mentality
simply doesn’t exist. Overall, they
would have been better off booting Shii Ann and keeping the tribe at maximum
strength while the dominant alliance would still have the majority. Actually, they would have been better
off not going to tribal council at all. In Chuay Gahn there was a conflict between Ghandia and Ted of
a sexual nature. I don’t really
care what actually happened out there, but Ted handled it in an open and calm
manner while Ghandia was gossipy, moody and withholding key pieces of
information from fellow tribe mates.
In the end it is Ghandia that is the odd person out in this tribe and
will so obviously be the tribe’s next evictee. Although there is no evidence in this
episode, I strongly suspect that Brian used this incident to begin to undermine
Ted and draw in the support of Helen and Jan. EPISODE
4 What
happened: Chuay Gahn loses the immunity challenge and vote out
Ghandia. Votes: Brian, Clay, Helen & Ted voted Ghandia Ghandia & Jan voted Clay The good: For
Brian, Clay and Ted there really was no choice here. Ghandia was their weakest immunity
player and, by her own admission, was playing games trying to get control of the
tribe. Although this was a tough
vote for Helen, she played it right here.
Taking the chance with whatever tie breaking method they have, would not
have been worth it. Although taking
a run at the guys when they were voting out Tanya would have been a great move
then, now it is riskier then playing it cool and waiting for a coup opportunity
later in the game. Finally,
although one immunity council too late, Ghandia at least made the run at the
weaker Clay, though that was only on Jan’s insistence. The dubious: I
can understand entirely why Jan would love to get rid of Clay as it would
further secure her position within the dominant alliance, but risking whatever
tie breaker was in play in this game is just too dangerous to someone in her
position. She has too much to
lose. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan and Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny, Robb, Shii Ann and
Stephanie Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian Sook Jai: Penny Comments: The players on Chuay Gahn continue to pay for Jan’s poor
picks in making this tribe. I think
Helen’s rating on her vote requires a bit more explanation. If she stuck with Ghandia and Jan and
gone to the tie breaker, they would have had only a 50/50 shot of coming out on
top with a 1 in 6 shot of Helen going herself (I’m assuming the stone rule from
Marquesas is still in play). If on
top, she would have guaranteed her safety, at least until a merge or swap. However, if on the bottom, she would
have likely been the next player to go.
With the fact that a swap is very likely next episode given the history
of the last couple of seasons, and one can see that what Helen did increased her
chances of making the merge. The
swap is the great equalizer for alliances as one is forced to, at least
temporarily, ally with whatever fellow tribe members you find yourself
around. For Helen, making the merge
should be her top priority. Once
there, she can explore her options.
Evidence in subsequent episodes seems to indicate that
something else happened here as well though. I suspect that this was the time when
Brian made a final two deal with Helen for her loyalty. Although playing to Brian’s ego would be
a good plan from Helen’s perspective, she should have recognized this as a
promise of convenience that he never intended to keep. None the less, this gave Brian support
of Clay, Helen and Ted and Ted with support of Jan. Brian is certainly the one with the most
options in front of him though he seems to have made final two promises with
three different people (Clay, Ted and Helen). He better hope people don’t talk to each
other. In Sook Jai I think we have quite the collection of
dysfunctional people as even the simple act of decorating a dummy becomes and
exercise in childish egos and pouting.
My ten year old is more mature then most of these players. This is a pretty sorry crew, and it is
the dominant alliance of Erin, Jake, Ken & Penny that is the chief
cause. A later episode would reveal
that it is Penny’s game playing that is the chief source of all the
distrust. If this tribe can manage
not to tear itself apart, she will be a truly dangerous player with potential
support from both Jake and Erin. EPISODE
5 What
happened: Sook Jai loses the immunity challenge and vote out
Stephanie. Votes: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny & Shii Ann voted Stephanie. Robb & Stephanie voted Shii Ann. The good: Again,
Robb and Stephanie are doing the best they can and targeting the right
player. Shii Ann as well is making
the right move for her. The tribe
should be looking at booting a weaker player, but that would point right to
her. The dubious: Shii
Ann seems to be leaning towards Jake and a later episode would reveal Ken as
well, so I can understand how they are reluctant to remove her, but their tribe
is only one immunity loss from being tied with the other tribe with a likely
merge around the corner. They’ve
got to win the next challenge and booting a more athletic player is not the best
move. The mistakes:
Penny and Erin have got to see how Shii Ann is closer to Jake and Ken. Removing her would not only strengthen
the tribe but also would improve their hold upon it. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan and Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny, Robb and Shii Ann Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian Sook Jai: Penny Comments: There is no way that a tribe that so overmatches their
opponents on the other side of the island should be only one immunity loss from
going into the merge tied. This
tribe is forgetting rule one: don’t forget who the enemy is. The name of the game at this stage is
winning challenges. Guarantee your
majority at the merge, then start tearing each other apart. This episode finally revealed what I
suspected for some time, that Shii Ann is on the periphery of this tribe. In Chewy Gahn, Ted seems to have committed himself into a
final two deal with Brian, yet Brian is keeping his options open with Clay and
Helen as well. The one truly pitiful thing that happened in this episode
(besides the lame fish sorting immunity challenge) was Jeff asking players if
any of them wanted to switch tribes.
No matter how bad off you are in a tribe, you will almost certainly be
worse off after switching. A swap
is now out of the question. I
suspect Mark Burnett was originally going to use the torch colours to base his
new tribes upon, but either the Chewy Boys hedging their bets or the fact that
Sook Jai would have lost three players to Chuay Gahn’s one (they had only one
silver torch left at this stage) caused him to change his mind. EPISODE
6 What
happened: Sook Jai loses the immunity challenge and vote out Robb. Votes: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny & Shii Ann voted Robb. Robb voted Shii Ann. The good: Robb
voted for the only person he had an outside shot of getting support for. Shii Ann also did the only thing she
could because the alternative would be her self. The mistakes: At
this stage I am assuming that Ken, Erin, Jake and Penny have a final four pact
putting Shii Ann in the position of playing the fifth. If these guys think for a second that
Shii Ann will willingly play the fifth they are dreaming. Robb may have played this role. The boot should have been the dangerous
Shii Ann. Who’s Left: Chuay Gahn: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan and Ted Sook Jai: Erin, Jake, Ken, Penny and Shii Ann Strongest
Positions: Chuay Gahn: Brian Sook Jai: Penny Comments: Well Sook Jai now has the award for the worst pre-merge
voting, taking it away from Kucha.
With being on the verge of the merge, let’s look back at the tribe that
should have walked away with this thing.
Trouble begins all the way back with the forming of the Fortress Four
alliance of Ken, Erin, Jake and Penny.
The alliance itself wasn’t that bad, but they needed a fifth to assure
their majority, not only at the beginning but also to ensure at least a tie come
the merge. They seemed to have
picked Shii Ann for this role and this is a mistake. Shii Ann is a bright and aggressive
player who will never be satisfied playing a stooge. As soon as the merge hits, she is going
to be shopping for a better deal. A
player who is not here to play the game would have been better. Any of Robb, Jed or Stephanie would have
been a decent choice, likely Stephanie being the best. Instead they isolated these players and
this tribe became the most miserable in the history of the game. If Jake and Ken wanted Shii Ann in the
mix they should have made a final three deal with her but, judging from the
displeasure Shii Ann voiced about her tribe, this never happened. Sook Jai compounded these mistakes by
never really feeling bad about voting out people until the very end when they
realized that they will be going into the merge tied. They even threw one of the challenges, a
move that they have got to be regretting now. The dominant alliance in this tribe was
way to overconfident and they got burned for it. EPISODE
7 What
happened: Although the tribes began living in the same camp, they still
competed as separate tribes in the immunity challenge. Sook Jai loses and vote out Shii
Ann. Votes: Erin, Jake, Ken & Penny voted Shii Ann. Shii Ann voted Penny. The good: All
these votes were fine and likely each player’s best moves. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Erin, Helen, Jake, Jan, Ken, Penny and Ted Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Weaker Alliance: Ted Weaker Tribe: Erin, Jake, Ken & Penny Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: This was a very interesting episode and likely gave us more
as far as tribal alliances then any other.
The two tribes began living together and automatically assumed that a
merge was in the works. Shii Ann
immediately went to Chuay Gahn and began telling them how miserable she was and
she was given the opportunity to join their tribe. The fact that Shii Ann wanted to do this
was, of course, no surprise. She
was obviously nowhere within her own tribe and so had little to lose. Although she made a deal with Brian, one
has got to hope that if she had stayed around this would have only been her foot
in the door and that she would begin working on more isolated players. It was interesting that she told Ken
what she was thinking of doing. She
was likely trying to force a commitment out of him. Ken seemed to indicate that Penny would
be gone later, but Shii Ann appeared to either not believe him or felt that he
wouldn’t be able to gain the support to take out Penny at a later date. She likely felt that in the end, she
didn’t have the support of either Ken or Jake. If she was in well with these two guys,
there would be no need for her to go over to the other tribe in the first
place. Ken and Jake are in with
Penny and Erin for good or for ill.
This makes it fairly obvious that Shii Ann would have been the player to
go in either case, so I don’t think she did any damage to herself. At least she went down swinging. Sorry to see you go Shii Ann, the game
would have been far more interesting with you there. Trying to get the dynamics of the Sook Jai alliance is
extremely difficult. This has got
to be the most complex alliance ever in this game. It’s clear that Penny is in the middle
of it, but who is she paired with, Jake or Erin? Both are possible, but how does Ken fit
in? Is he dim enough to play the
fourth? – Perhaps. Maybe someone
has promised him a final two partner ship and this could be either Jake or
Erin. Circles within circles. It also seems clear that it is Penny
that has been playing one side against the other since the very beginning and
this was likely the source of so much tension within this tribe. It was this tension and lack of unity
that directly lead to Sook Jai now being in the minority. Given these dynamics, Ken likely would
have been better off never joining this alliance in the first place, but instead
making a final two deal with Shii Ann and approaching Jed, Stephanie and Robb
about taking out Penny. He could
have used the line that he was just trying to make the tribe more unified and
stronger (which is a partial truth).
It would have created a far healthier tribe that would have had a much
greater chance of burying Chuay Gahn with the added bonus of having Ken in the
driver’s seat. Ah, what could have
been. In Chuay Gahn things are more civil, but not necessarily more
simple. On the surface it is Ted
and Brian in charge, and Ted at least feels he has a final two deal with Brian,
but Brian is drawing support from Clay and later episodes will reveal Helen and
Jan to. I would suspect that by
this stage, Ted was already on the outside looking in and should be looking for
alternatives. One last personal note: This episode taught me a little bit
about how I find myself routing for players in this show. I’ve not been too much into getting
behind particular players this season and tonight I realized why. It is because I didn’t have the players
to rout against. Although there
were players I thought were playing well and others not, there was no one that I
really wanted not to win. That
changed with this episode. Nothing
turns me off a player more then hypocrisy, and when Penny began spewing her smug
garbage about tribal loyalty while she was the one that worked the hardest to
isolate certain players in her tribe, I immediately turned on her. Penny is the first on my please, anyone
but her/him to win list. EPISODE
8 What
happened: Sook Jai loses and vote out Erin. Votes: Jake, Ken & Penny voted Erin. Erin voted Ken. The good: Jake
and Penny made the right move here, preserving the more athletic Ken. The mistakes:
Ken’s and Erin’s would have been better teaming up and voting Penny then in
trusting that Jake and Penny were telling them the truth. See below. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jake, Jan, Ken, Penny and Ted Jury:
Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Weaker Alliance: Ted Weaker Tribe: Jake, Ken & Penny Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: Zzzzzzz … Oh, huh, sorry is the episode over? Oh yeah, now I remember – lots of
tears. Maybe if these guys felt
this bad about voting off the other members of their tribe they wouldn’t be in
this situation and we might actually have ourselves an interesting game. Okay, let’s see, why oh why did they
vote out that nice Erin, right? It
all had to do with the dynamics of this complicated alliance. At the heart is Penny and Jake with Erin
as the third and Ken playing the fourth.
Perhaps there were other promises made, but when this alliance was forced
to vote out one of its own, the real loyalties came through. Jake and Penny were really the ones that
needed to make the decision here and I suspect they made it based upon athletic
strength, now being completely unsure of when these tribes will actually
merge. I bet they told Ken they
were voting Erin and Erin they were voting Ken. Ken and Erin had to make a decision on
whether to support this vote or to go for the tie. Alliances don’t mean anything in the
weaker tribe, so they simply had to make the decision that was most likely to
get them past this immunity council.
If they voted the way Penny and Jake wanted them to vote, they each had a
50/50 shot of being the one that went (all depending on how Penny and Jake
voted); however, if they voted together and for Penny it would have been a
tie. If the tie held (who knows,
perhaps Jake might have bailed) it would have gone to a tie breaker. Last season the tie breaker was drawing
stones and in that scenario each player would have had a 1 in 4 chance of
drawing the purple stone. If the
tie breaker was votes against, as it was previous to last season, then Penny
would have been gone thanks to the one vote on her from Shii Ann. Either way, their odds were better then
trusting Jake and Penny. In Chuay Gahn, a very subtle game is being played. Sook Jai seem fairly oblivious to the
dynamics of this tribe and likely think that there aren’t any strong alliances
at all and this is completely due to the fact that the dominant alliance is
playing it cool and not rubbing their dominance in everyone’s faces. Brian is even endearing himself more to
Jake with male talk surrounding the women’s place being in the kitchen and
ditching Helen’s constant talk about recipes. A chat with Erin after the episode aired
revealed that she was unaware of any male chauvinism making it obvious this was
just talk between the guys. EPISODE
9 What
happened: The tribes finally merge. Clay wins immunity and they vote out
Ken. Votes: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan & Ted voted Ken. Ken, Jake & Penny voted Ted. The good: With
the delayed merge, it is already fairly late in the game and the last thing the
dominant tribe needs is an immunity run. Ken is the biggest threat in that
regard. The mistakes:
Ken, Jake and Penny are playing this wrong. Sucking up to the dominant tribe will
get you nowhere. They need to stir
the pot and work on the weaker players. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jake, Jan, Penny and Ted Jury: Erin &
Ken Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Weaker Alliance: Ted Weaker Tribe: Jake & Penny Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: I think Ken was a simple choice for the dominant tribe in
this case. Any thoughts of going
anywhere else were likely swept away when Ken finished second in the immunity
challenge, and it wasn’t even a physical one. Now firmly in the minority, Sook Jai is
still showing no signs of beginning to learn this game. Their approach is somewhat scattered,
actually approaching Brian at one point about forming an alliance, which is
about as lame is it can get considering how good Brian has it right now. Clay made indications that he and others
are thinking of voting Ted. Not a
bad thought, but premature and almost certainly a red herring designed to keep
Sook Jai distracted. Even if it
were true, helping to vote out Ted is not the way for Sook Jai to go because
once that isolated player is gone, they’ll simply turn back on the weaker
tribe. What they should have done
was gone to Ted with what was being said hoping to create friction in the docile
Chuay Gahn. Sook Jai isn’t going to
get anywhere unless Chuay Gahn fractures. While Sook Jai struggles, Brian is deftly handling the
players within his own tribe but Ted should be realizing that Brian is not going
to stay loyal to him and should be looking for alternatives. EPISODE
10 What
happened: Helen wins immunity and they vote out Penny. Votes: Brian, Helen, Jan, & Ted voted Penny. Clay & Penny voted Jake. Jake voted Jan. The good:
Although the temptation would be for Brian, Clay & Helen to reduce their
tribe a bit by taking out Ted, it seems unlikely they would have been able to
get the one additional vote they need to do this. Taking out Penny was the saver move. The interesting:
Clay’s vote on Jake. Was this a
jury vote play on Penny or was he out of the loop in the vote. As it turns out, it was more about
sending Jake a message. Pretty
lame, but with more then enough votes going to Penny, throwing one another way
can be afforded. The dubious:
Jake’s and Penny’s votes were useless.
Chances are, they couldn’t do anything anyway, but sucking up to the
dominate tribe is pointless and voting Jan is dumb. Consistent targeting of dominant players
is needed. The mistakes:
This would have been Jan’s and Ted’s time to make their move. Team up with Jake and Penny and vote out
Clay. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jake, Jan and Ted Jury: Erin, Ken
& Penny Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Weaker Alliance: Ted Weaker Tribe: Jake Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: This would have been a good time for those holding the lowest
positions on the Chewy Gahn ladder to make their move. Teaming up with Jake and Penny and
taking out Clay would have been the play.
After that they have two options.
They could move on Brian, then pick up Helen and boot Penny going into
the final four, or they could pick up Brian and return to pagonging. Jake’s and Penny’s efforts continue to
be uncoordinated. Jake spent most
of the episode chasing wild gooses that Clay put in front of him. Ted and Jan are the ones that really
need to be worked on. It is to
their best advantage to pull a coup, and every effort must be made for them to
see that. Penny on the other hand
is playing the flying under the radar game, even to the point of first targeting
Jake in the immunity challenge.
Give it up Penny, you aren’t Chuay Gahn and won’t be. You are far better off sticking with
Jake and working on tribal divisions.
Penny was a smart move on the part of the dominant
alliance. Jake’s attempts have been
obvious and as the enemy you know, keeping him around is far safer then the
sneaky Penny. Penny is also the
greater immunity threat of the two.
The other thing this episode showed us was the continuing power struggle
between Clay and Ted for Brian’s affections. Brian is playing both Clay and Ted, and
seems to want to keep his options open.
This episode should have been Ted’s wake up call. He could easily make a final two deal
with Jan. Brian is still in the
best position to win this, but he’s got to play it right, if he loses Ted’s and
Jan’s loyalty, he loses his best chance at winning this thing. EPISODE
11 What
happened: Ted wins immunity and they vote out Jake. Votes: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan, & Ted voted Jake. Jake voted Jan. The good: The
obvious vote again, but a decent one for all of Chewy Gahn. From Ted’s perspective though, he let a
chance to get Clay go by, and he may not get more of them The dubious: It
seems Jake thinks he’s making some sort of point voting Jan. I think that point is lost on everyone
but him. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Helen, Jan and Ted Jury: Erin, Ken,
Penny & Jake Alliances: Dominant Alliance: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Weaker Alliance: Ted Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: As this sleepy game begins to wind down, let’s take a look at
who has pushed the snooze button one too many times. Jan has been asleep for a while and
shows no signs of consciousness.
Happy to be in the dominant alliance, she seems oblivious to the fact
that she is presently set up to go at four. Ted better answer that alarm bell
soon. With support from Jan, he’s
in the best place to win this game but he’s got to get rid of the dangerous Clay
next tribal council in order to restrict Brian’s options and guarantee his
support to Ted. With Clay in the
picture, it is Brian who has the most support and will be the likely
winner. If Ted does not work to
take out Clay next, then he will likely be defaulting the game to Brian. Alarm bells are sure ringing for Helen
now. In typical Survivor fashion,
the weak player decides to start making moves only when the cross hairs a
drawing on them. At this stage
Brian has definitely made a deal with Helen, but Helen sure seems less then
comfortable. Of course she should
be as she shouldn’t trust him. Why
would Brian honor any deal with Helen?
He’s got Clay. Helen should
be approaching a player that needs support and that would be Ted. As for Brian and Clay, they’ve been
alert and playing for a while now, for Brian from the moment he landed on the
beach. Let’s hope a few others will
wake up and make a game of this. And while were talking about what players should do, let’s
make sure we explore other options that they could have done this episode. Although targeting Jake was obvious and
safe, there was an alternative that was likely better. Ted let’s Brian, Clay and Jake think the
target will be Jake and then he, Jan and Helen vote Clay. The vote would have been Clay – 3, Jake
– 2, and Jan – 1, and Clay would have been gone. The opportunity was there and you never
know what might happen next episode (like Clay winning immunity). Some folks might be thinking that
letting Jake in on the vote would have been a smart move to ensure the majority,
but it actually represents an unnecessary risk. You can never be sure what Jake might
do, and he may consider going to Brian and Clay with the information hoping to
buy his way into the final three.
This vote would have been money in the bank, as long as the players
involved can wear their poker faces long enough not to tip off Brian or Clay to
what was happening. Also, Is it just me or are others finding it difficult to see
how Brian’s tribe mates are capable of swallowing the pap he throws out a tribal
council? Man, Herb Tarleck from
WRKP is more believable. EPISODE
12 What
happened: Brian wins immunity and they vote out Ted. Votes: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan voted Ted. Ted voted Jan. The good: Another
round of voting for the most isolated player left. Can’t much blame Brian and Clay though,
just because everyone else is making it so easy for them. The dubious: Ted
seems to be picking up where Jake left off. Clearly Ted was beat and knew it, but he
could at least go down swinging. The mistakes:
Brian and Clay are clearly the closest pair in this game. It was clearly a mistake not to break
them up. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay, Helen & Jan Jury: Erin, Ken,
Penny, Jake & Ted Alliances: Dominant Pair: Brian & Clay Third: Jan Fourth: Helen Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: So who died and left Brian king? A word to Mark Burnett and all those
involved in this show. Please, only
put people in this game that are there to actually play. You could have saved us a lot of wasted
time and energy by simply having a check signing party for Brian and then just
sent them all home. Helen waffled
back and forth on what she was going to do and experience on this show has shown
us that when a player is not sure what to do, they will pick the wimpiest route,
so it was unlikely she would have signed on with Ted anyway, even with Jan’s
help. Speaking of Jan, it is these
kinds of players that drive me nuts.
She seems like a sweat lady, but she is simply not there to play the game
and more then that she has already made up her mind for everyone on who should
win, and that’s Brian. Ted really didn’t have a lot of hope with this group and his
experience should teach us that if you do not have a firm commitment from
people, you’re best off assuming they’re working against you and act
accordingly. In hindsight, Ted’s
only hope would have been to go to Sook Jai back when Ken got booted, laying all
his cards on the table and who were the four players running this thing, trying
to convince them that one of them has got to go and they have Ted’s help. Then the four of them vote for
Brian. It would have been a tie
which would have meant a lot of things could have happened, but if Brian (or
even Clay) went it would have been a whole new game the next morning. Ted had nothing to lose as his
alternative was for him and Sook Jai to simply sit around and wait for their
turn for the boot. It sure seems
that’s the decision Helen and Jan have made. EPISODE 13 – Part
1 What
happened: Brian wins immunity and they vote out Helen. Votes: Brian, Clay & Jan voted Helen. Helen voted Jan. The good: Brian
and Clay took out the strongest immunity contender and a popular player with the
jury in Helen. The mistakes:
Helen and Jan can’t win the game without trying to take control of it. The two of them should have team up and
created a tie. Who’s Left: Brian, Clay & Jan Jury: Erin, Ken,
Penny, Jake, Ted & Helen Alliances: Dominant Pair: Brian & Clay Third: Jan Strongest
Position: Brian Comments: Brian’s and Clay’s votes were no brainers, so let’s talk
about Helen and Jan. You don’t want
to go into the final three as the third thus forcing you to have to win the
immunity challenge. This is
especially true for a weak contender like Jan. Jan and Helen should have teamed up and
voted Clay. If previous votes
against counted, Clay would be gone because of three votes against him from way
back, if votes against don’t count and it goes to stones, then you have a 1 in 3
chance of him drawing the purple stone, which is better than the chances of Jan
winning the final immunity challenge.
Oh and Helen, I know you were really made at these guys for voting you
out. Don’t be mad at them, be mad
at yourself for being in that position in the first place. EPISODE 13 – Part
2 What
happened: Brian wins immunity and voted out Jan. The good: A
complete no brainer on Brian’s part.
Clay is the least popular with the jury. Brian wins 4 – 3. Helen, Jake, Jan & Ted voted Brian. Erin, Ken & Penny voted Clay. Comments: The most interesting thing about the final outcome of this
game was how close the vote was and one has to ask oneself, how could Brian have
come so close to losing this thing?
Clay rode in Brian’s shadow throughout this game and was considered by
many to be the laziest player out there when it came to working around the
camp. Meanwhile Brian worked as
hard as anyone (amongst the males anyway) and seemed to get along with most
everyone, especially those within his own tribe. Part of the answer is in the weak nature
of the jury, especially the members of the Sook Jai tribe who throughout this
season showed a remarkable lack of understanding of the fundamentals of this
game. They voted Clay because of
obvious plays he made for their loyalties as opposed for who really played the
game the best. So why did Jake vote
Brian then? This is because he had
one heated (and moronic) argument with Clay that neither of them could let go
of. One should also not discount Brian’s hand in making this game
so close, as Helen and Ted both seemed very close to voting the other way. Brian appeared to be playing an
excellent game, but as we wound down towards the end, it became clear that Brian
only knew how to lie, not how to use the truth or to leave well enough
alone. While most of the players
laid back and did little to nothing as far as strategy, Brian over schemed and
nearly played himself out of the game, especially during tribal council when it
should have been apparent to everyone that Brian’s behavior was compulsive and
he was incapable of turning it off.
A stronger and, more importantly, less gullible group of players should
have been able to see through this guy easily and dealt with him. His plays were obvious, but in the end
he was the only one playing. Overall, this was beyond a doubt the weakest game ever
played. No blunders, but at the
same time no great moves either as all the players seemed to simply drift
towards the votes that seemed most obvious at the time without putting any
degree of foresight into their game at all. One has to wonder if this is a result of
players continually getting the wrong ideas on how to play the game from
watching the editing of previous seasons, Mark Burnett deliberately choosing
weak players, or just bad luck.
Personally, I think the lunatics just happened to be running the asylums
on both ends of the island this time and the players that could have made of
game of this all met with early departures. Too bad really, better luck next
time.
