SURVIVOR AMAZON – VOTING ANALYSIS
EPISODE 1
What Happened:
The tribes were split according to gender.
Jaburu: Christy, Deena, Heidi, Janet, Jeanne, Jenna, Joanna and Shawna
Tambaqui: Alex, Butch, Daniel, Dave, Matt, Rob, Roger and Ryan
Tambaqui loses the immunity challenge and vote out Ryan
Votes:
Alex, Butch, Rob & Roger voted Ryan
Daniel, Matt & Ryan voted Roger
Dave voted Daniel
The good: Ryan was the right choice here. With the tribes split by gender, the challenges are far more likely to be about team work and thinking then about brawn, so what the tribe needed to concern itself with was trying to unite the tribe. Ryan and Daniel isolated themselves from the rest of the group and were the pair holding them back in the immunity challenge anyway. Targeting the opposing leader was likely the best option for Ryan and Daniel. In hindsight, Matt would have been better off teaming with the stronger group but they obviously felt they had a shot at taking control of the tribe so going for it was not a mistake.
The mistakes: Dave is not going to get anywhere playing solo. He says he wanted to stay loyal to someone from the same hometown, but his inability to take a side resulted in that very person leaving the game. To succeed at this, you’ve got to be willing to make some tough decisions.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Christy, Deena, Heidi, Janet, Jeanne, Jenna, Joanna and Shawna
Tambaqui: Alex, Butch, Daniel, Dave, Matt, Rob and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu:
Jeanne & Joanna
Tambaqui:
Alex & Roger
Comments:
It’s interesting how splitting the tribes by gender changes the dynamics of this game. It’s obvious that immunity challenges can no longer be centered on brawn, so players should feel freer in removing athletic players early if it improves the overall function of the tribe. It is the ability to work as a team that will be the biggest determiner of who will win the challenges. As well, there seemed always to be these players that felt sex appeal is the best way to play the game (though no one has actually won using this method alone). Now these players are left floundering and at the mercy of those that are more concerned with building a functioning tribe.
In Tambaqui, the guys were way too cocky and their failure at the immunity challenge was not that surprising. They will lose more if they don’t learn from this and realize that they have got to learn to function as a team. They got rid of the right person to move in this direction in Ryan and Ryan’s former alliance mates have got to put this failure behind them and play the loyal tribe mates and look for new opportunities at a future swap or merge. This means letting Roger lead and doing everything they can to encourage tribe unity. Somehow, I don’t suspect this will happen and I’m guessing the divisions in this tribe will only deepen. Dave somehow thinks he can play this game as some kind of lone samurai, leaving the obvious foursome of Alex, Butch, Roger and Rob. This is an interesting group of players. Roger is the visible leader, but that means little towards who will actually come out on top. Butch appears to be Roger’s loyal soldier but Rob seems capable of making the right moves later when the time is right. I think his greatest strength is that he comes across as completely non-threatening. If he can just keep up this persona of being a non-gamer and not annoy the crap out of people with his magic eight ball, he could be truly dangerous. Alex seems the quiet and watchful type and could also be someone to watch later. On my strongest position picks, I’m going with Alex (I think Rob’s personality may be his undoing) and the tribe leader in Roger, who does seem to have his head wrapped around this to a degree.
Although the women of Jaburu are having more trouble with fire and shelter, this has little to do with winning the game. Many of the same things are happening in this tribe as in Tambaqui as they seem to be heading for a conflict split mostly along lines of age. The younger ladies (led by Jenna) seem more concerned with doing laundry than building shelter and seem lost without males who they can strut their stuff in front of. In the meantime, Deena has emerged as the leader of this tribe and although the younger players seem convinced that she (or Janet or Christy) will be the first to go, my bet is that she will be surrounded by some loyal tribe mates in Janet, Jeanne and Joanna (man, way to many J names). Being deaf, Christy becomes a very interesting player and how her handicap will play into the game will something to watch. Obviously she feels she is being isolated in this tribe and certainly the younger players don’t seem to see her value, but I strongly suspect this won’t escape the notice of everyone. She would likely make a very loyal third or fourth, though I certainly wouldn’t want to be up against her in the final two. As for my strongest position picks, I think Deena seems too interested in the dynamics of tribe building than in game playing, while Janet would seem happy just to survive. Jeanne and Joanna seem to be smart and personable and the most likely to be able to run with this game.
EPISODE 2
What Happened:
Jaburu loses the immunity challenge and vote out Janet
Votes:
Deena, Heidi, Jeanne, Jenna & Shawna voted Janet
Christy voted Jenna
Janet voted Jeanne
Joanna voted Christy
The good: Granola bar or no granola bar, Janet was the right choice. Although the challenges will not be all brawn, physicality is still part of the game. Janet obviously knew she was on the way out the door and put her vote towards the person she felt instigated it, which was fine.
The mistakes: This game is not about playing solo and personal feuds. Christy and Joanna need to get with the program.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jeanne, Jenna, Joanna and Shawna
Tambaqui: Alex, Butch, Daniel, Dave, Matt, Rob and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu:
Heidi & Jeanne
Tambaqui:
Alex & Rob
Comments:
Where do these people come from? This game seemed to punctuate the personal feuds that were going on in the two tribes, both of which showed that I over estimated a few of these players. In Jaburu, Joanna was expressing her concern about the Christian implications of having an idol (that is, the Immunity Idol) in their camp which certainly leads me to the question, has she actually watched this show? The Immunity Idol is an icon of Survivor. Maybe she should have thought about that before signing up. Joanna seems to be having trouble letting this go and flew off the handle on Christy when she overheard her comment regarding her views on this. Speaking of Christy, her frustration is obviously building and she is letting it show. I still think she can be a valuable player. Jeanne seems to be making the most effort to include her, in fact it seems she may be becoming the person that most of the tribe is listening to. My guess would be her and Deena as the center of power in this tribe, though one certainly can’t ignore the three young women of whom Heidi seems the most on the ball.
In Tambaqui, they continue to far excel the women at maintaining the camp, but Roger seems to be having difficulty keeping his views on homosexuality to himself and is obviously getting on the nerves of many of the younger members, especially Alex. I don’t think he is in a position to draw support any longer; in fact Rob seems to be actively conspiring against him. Patience Rob, don’t play those cards too early. I still think Butch is in with Roger, Dave is playing solo and Dan seems clueless. Rob and Alex still do have players from which to draw including Butch (once Roger is gone), Matt (once Dan is gone) and perhaps even Dave will realize how this game is played. If I were Alex and Rob, I would still leave well enough alone with Roger (he will be easy to deal with later) and make my next target the fumbling Daniel. Overall though, I’ve got to say that I am impressed with how this whole tribe has managed to put most of their past differences behind them and focus on the game.
EPISODE 3
What Happened:
Tambaqui loses the immunity challenge and vote out Daniel.
Votes:
Alex, Butch, Dave, Matt, Rob & Roger voted Daniel
Daniel voted Roger
The good: Dan was the right call here. He was certainly the one bringing down the tribe the most, though there were some fairly complex strategic concerns that came in as well. See comments for more information.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jeanne, Jenna, Joanna and Shawna
Tambaqui: Alex, Butch, Dave, Matt, Rob and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu:
Deena & Jeanne
Tambaqui:
Alex & Rob
Comments:
Daniel was never a player that really was in this game. He was never able to control events and despite his youth and fitness level, he was their biggest liability when it came to the challenges. Despite all that, there was a lot going on leading to this vote. Let’s start with Rob. Rob is in a very solid position in this game but is playing it way too cute. He seems to think that when tribe-mates are butting heads, this works to his advantage. He’s wrong. First off, personal conflicts within this tribe are part of what is to blame for their abysmal 1 and 4 challenge record and Rob stirring the pot is not helping. Second, he’s spending way too much time talking and playing the other players. His greatest asset is his non-threatening persona. The more he is visibly manipulating people, there more likely these very same people are going to turn around and bite him in the ass. Rob seemed to actually be attempting to have Roger removed, which would have been a mistake. Right now, he seems to have Alex, Roger and Butch voting with him, giving them a clear majority. Perhaps he feels he’s got Matt, but Matt had the support of Daniel and was working on Dave. If Dave actually wakes up and begins playing this game, they could become a dangerous trio if Roger is out of the picture. Removing Roger would have been a bad move from Alex and Rob’s perspective. He may be a bigot and is annoying the hell out of everyone around him, but that will only makes him the easier to remove when his vote is no longer needed.
Let’s switch gears to Matt. Dave’s fixation with voting Daniel pretty much made Matt abandoning Dan his best option, but if Dave was willing to play ball, an alternative would have been to play along with Rob and remove Roger, then in a later tribal council switching gears to Butch. The thing is, it is very possible that this would not have worked as I don’t think Rob, and especially Alex, are quite that dumb, so likely his best bet anyway, is to play the loyal tribe-mate for now and hope that he is still around come a swap or merge and then re-explore his options. Besides, I think there is a very good chance that Alex and Rob will still want to get rid of Roger and pair up with Matt and Dave, putting these last two in a very solid position.
Over in Jaburu, Jeanne is certainly the one playing the game the best and seems to be paired with Joanna. This may be a mistake on her part as the abrasive Joanna may make it difficult to draw in more support. Her biggest advantage may be that Heidi, Jenna and Shawna are not playing the game at all. I think these three may have the potential of bringing the tribe down come a swap or merge, but don’t have a realistic shot at winning. I don’t think playing the leader is going to hurt Deena’s chances, indeed the fact that the tribe is functioning so much better under her leadership likely puts her in the best position to put together an opposition to Jeanne if she doesn’t decide to play along with her. Where Christy falls in all this will be interesting to watch. She seems close to Jeanne but has had problems with Joanna. At the same time she seems on good terms with Deena. How this tribe shakes down will be good to watch.
EPISODE 4
What Happened:
Jaburu loses the immunity challenge and vote out Joanna.
Votes:
Christy, Deena, Heidi & Jenna voted Joanna
Jeanne & Joanna voted Shawna
Shawna voted Christy
The good: Shawna was the right call for Jeanne and Joanna. Despite removing the weakest member, it would have been another step in taking the younger women out of this game. Removing Joanna puts Heidi and Jenna in control of this tribe so it works well for them.
The mistakes: Perhaps Deena feels she stands a better chance of controlling the younger women, she cannot ignore the simple fact that she is one and they are three. Her and Christy should be teaming with Jeanne and Joanna where they will be standing even in numbers. She could easily have drawn support latter to remove the abrasive Joanna and take control of the game. What Shawna is doing is simply bizarre. She’ sitting third in this alliance and insists on pushing herself down the ladder.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jeanne, Jenna and Shawna
Tambaqui: Alex, Butch, Dave, Matt, Rob and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu:
Heidi
Tambaqui:
Alex
Comments:
Wow, my first “great” ranking since the middle of Marquesas. It’s great to see that some people are thinking, though certainly not all of them. Deena had the opportunity to seize control of this tribe by sticking with Jeanne and Joanna, and convincing Christy to help remove Shawna. This would not only have kept the tribe at maximum strength, but begun to break up this dangerous threesome. Getting the support to remove the abrasive Joanna later in the game would have likely been effortless. Instead, her and Christy helped to hand the tribe over to Heidi and Jenna when they should have been burying them. That being said, hats off the Heidi and Jenna for pulling the rug out from under Jeanne and Joanna as it was them that approached Deena regarding forming this alliance. It’s so nice to see folks thinking ahead and not simply just flying below the radar. I think Heidi is the brains in the duo and therefore I’m putting her in the strongest position.
As for the guys, they really seem to have taken their lessons in humility and have built a very nice tribe, winning both challenges in this episode. I still think Alex is in the position to draw support from the most players in this tribe.
EPISODE 5
What Happened:
Early in the episode, the youngest players were removed from each tribe and given and evening of wining and dining. The next morning, they were each asked to picking names, alternating man-woman, to form their new tribes.
New tribes:
Jaburu: Alex, Deena, Jenna, Matt, Rob and Shawna
Tambaqui: Butch, Christy, Dave, Heidi, Jeanne and Roger
Tambaqui loses the immunity challenge and vote out Jeanne.
Votes:
Butch, Dave, Heidi and Roger voted Jeanne
Christy & Jeanne voted Butch
The interesting: Heidi had a tough choice and certainly voting out an tribe-mate goes against convention in this situation. Besides avoiding the tie, there are reasons for Heidi to do this.
The good: Without support from the guys, Christy and Jeanne had nothing better they could have done.
The mistakes: Sorry guys, you got this backwards. Jeanne is the isolated player and without allies. She may have stayed loyal to you. Heidi is leader of a powerful alliance in her home tribe. There is no way she is going to play the fourth in your alliance. Jeanne should have been approached to remove Heidi.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Alex, Deena, Jenna, Matt, Rob and Shawna
Tambaqui: Butch, Christy, Dave, Heidi and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu:
Alex
Tambaqui:
Dave
Comments:
Let’s start with how these tribes were picked. When it comes to a swap, what is important is to have your players stick together while your opponents do not. For that reason you should try and have players from your tribe on each side that get along and won’t turn on each other, while at the same time having players that don’t get along together for the opposing tribe. If the opposing tribe turns on each other, then winning immunity is not important. In fact, it may be to an advantage to through a challenge at this stage. It needs to be noted that the night before Jenna talked about the power structure in her tribe (obviously a huge mistake) so Dave knew pretty much all he needed to make his picks while Jenna was far more in the dark.
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Dave (Tambaqui) |
Comments |
Jenna (Jaburu) |
Comments |
|
Heidi |
Well first off, since going first is no advantage (each had to pick a member of the opposite sex), I would have said ladies first just to get one more glimpse into Jenna’s head. That’s a pretty small thing though as Heidi was definitely the right pick here as this would give him the opportunity to remove the most dangerous player in the other tribe. However, from the events of this episode it’s pretty clear this was not the reason he picked her. |
Alex |
With nothing else to go on, making the pick based upon athleticism was the right call. Good pick. |
|
Butch |
Immediately it becomes obvious whom Dave is more comfortable with in his own tribe. If you are in a strong alliance, it’s not a big deal if you get split here. It’s more important to keep your tribe’s most likely ship jumper close at hand. This person ain’t Butch, but I don’t think Dave is in a strong alliance, so trying to build one now starting with the player he most thinks he can work with isn’t a terrible idea. All told though, I think this pick is rather dubious. If Dave had played this game better earlier (that is, be in a strong alliance by now) it would have been easier for him to make better picks here. |
Deena |
Although not the worst pick, I think keeping Jeanne close would have been a better idea. Isolated players are dangerous after swaps, the biggest risk right now is Jeanne jumping ship. Christy would also have been a better pick than Deena. |
|
Christy |
I think Dave should have picked Jeanne here. He knows she is the most isolated and aggressive player, making her the most likely to jump ship to the guys. He also knows from that Jeanne is not getting along that well with Heidi. Christy isn’t bad pick either though. |
Rob |
Based solely on athleticism, I think Matt would have been better here. |
|
Roger |
If he hadn’t picked Matt here it would have meant Roger would have been on the other side with Rob and Alex. I think this would have increased the chance of his tribe turning on each other, with Rob and/or Alex screwing over Roger. Good call. |
Shawna |
I think with Christy already over there, having Jeanne join her was likely the best call as these two get along better then Christy and Shawna. Ideally, Jenna’s best situation would have been to keep Heidi and Shawna with her and to have Deena, Christy and Jeanne go across, but unfortunately, with Dave’s first pick that wasn’t going to happen. |
|
Jeanne |
Jeanne should have been high on Dave’s choices from the other tribe, but it is clear he was thinking more of people that would make good tribe-mates as opposed to making the choices to help himself win. |
Matt |
No choice here. Dave definitely came out on the long side of the stick and Jenna’s loose lips the evening before certainly helped him out. |
Now lets go to Heidi’s decision. Heidi was put in a tough spot. Jeanne was certainly not someone she was loyal to (in fact she would have been the next boot in Jaburu) but voluntarily putting your tribe in the minority while you yourself are only given a fourth role in the dominant tribe (that is if Dave was telling the truth and had the authority to make the offer) seems like a pretty foolish thing to do. On the surface this seems very similar to Frank and Teresa’s situation in Survivor-Africa. There are some differences however. First, Frank and Teresa had no other allies on the home front so when the merge came, they would have certainly been on their own. Heidi had Jenna, Deena and very possibly Christy on her side. As well, Dave picked this split in his tribe so there was good reason to believe he had limited loyalty to the men that went over making his offer being a sincere one seem more likely. Thirdly, just the male vs. female nature of this game works to Heidi’s favour. Tradition has been to start targeting aggressive and athletic males like Rob, Alex or Matt once the merge hits. If this happens, all Heidi has to do is get Jenna, Shawna and Deena to play along for a bit and then turn on the overconfident men. Finally, even if Dave is a little more on the ball than that, Heidi is in an excellent position to pull a coup by using whoever is still around and targeting the abrasive Roger in the middle-game. Either way, she is in a very good position to seize control of the game after the merge.
I know this makes my strongest position pick in Tambaqui being Dave seem a little strange, but I can’t ignore the fact that, at present, he is in control of the majority of the players in that tribe. That being said, his middle-game is going to be a tough one. Once the tribes merge, he has to resist the temptation to go after athletic players first and force Heidi’s hand by targeting Jenna. This likely will also require him convincing the remaining men in Jaburu that he is still loyal to them. Given that Rob, Alex and Matt are aggressive players and not dummies, combined with Dave’s previous fence-sitting, this is going to be a tough sell. Dave is still in a good position, but he’s going to have to be shrewd and aggressive. Given his history thus far in this game, my hopes are not high.
In Jaburu, I’m going with Alex being in the strongest position, mostly because of Shawna’s overtly enthusiastic welcome of the men after seeming on the verge of death when housed with only women. I give her the highest probability of jumping ship and screwing over her old tribe-mates, though certainly a lot can happen in this tribe, especially considering a potential tie vote if everyone stays loyal to their original tribes. All told, it seems I might be putting the guys in the stronger position, but I think the merge this time will be very dynamic and if the players follow tradition and begin targeting the most athletic players after the merge, there is a very good chance of the women coming up through the middle.
EPISODE 6
What Happened:
Jaburu loses the immunity challenge and vote out Shawna
Votes:
Deena, Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Shawna
Alex & Shawna voted Matt
The great: Shawna cannot be counted on to vote with the women and her hold on Alex and Matt made her the biggest threat in this tribe to Deena.
The good: Rob and Matt did the right thing to maximize his options. Shawna was also doing the right thing targeting one of the guys. It was her earlier lack of commitment to the other ladies where she made her mistake.
The dubious: Despite Shawna fawning over Matt and Alex, she was still likely close ally of Jenna’s. Jenna should have been trying to use this relationship to woo the guys her way as opposed to Deena’s.
The mistakes: Alex voting Matt? You guys should be teaming up, not targeting each other.
Who’s Left:
Jaburu: Alex, Deena, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Tambaqui: Butch, Christy, Dave, Heidi and Roger
Strongest Positions:
Jaburu: Rob
Tambaqui: Butch
Comments:
Wow, these episodes just keep getting better. This is the third episode in a row in which I gave out at least one great rating on a vote. The real fun will begin at the merge but things are shaping up in a very interesting way, but more on that in a second.
Let’s start with Tambaqui. My thoughts that Dave might actually be getting into this game has been blown out of the water this episode. He is likely the most isolated player within this tribe and doesn’t have a clue as how other people are voting or why. Butch has put himself into the driver’s seat by being the first to finally do the obvious thing and bring Christy under his wing. With support of Roger he is the definite tribal leader and if these tribes are to remain separate, is the one in the best position. However, next week will be the traditional merge episode and if there is one (and previews seem to indicate there will be) all that is thrown out the window, but again I’ll talk about that in a bit.
The real fun is happening in Jaburu as, with Matt and Alex falling over each other for Shawna’s affections, the isolated Rob did the right thing in approaching the other isolated player in Deena and propose an alliance. With Shawna being the target, Rob has even delayed betraying his tribe and can still explore options within his own tribe if his relationship with Deena goes sour, but I believe that Deena is his meal ticket and he shouldn’t abandon her unless forced to. This was a great move for Deena as well, as she is sitting third with Jenna and Heidi. Her and Rob should be making a final two pact, voting with the other girls for now and then attempting a coup later in the game. Although it didn’t burn him here, Rob again overplayed his hand by approaching Matt and making it seem like he was loyal to him as well. Rob shouldn’t play this so cute and let the women in his alliance decide how to vote and just stay below everyone’s radar until the time is right. Alex is showing that he really doesn’t know what he is doing. He is not in a strong alliance and him targeting Matt because he sees him as a threat is laughable. He should be looking for allies, not isolating them. Rob and Deena are running this tribe now and will also be in a good position come the merge. Jenna’s stock has slipped, taking Heidi with her, now that Shawna is gone. If there is a merge, Heidi and Jenna are likely better off with the males of Tambaqui than back within their own tribe.
Now, on to the potential merge; despite being up six to four, things are far from sure for the guys. Once the merge hits, Heidi and Jenna will likely begin voting together but would likely be better off voting with Butch, Dave and Roger. Hopefully, both Butch and Heidi have been working on Christy. If they can get Christy to work with them they will have the majority. Their best bet is to go after either Matt or Alex. Deena and Rob will also be voting together and Rob seems to have the support of Alex and Matt. Again, where Christy goes is crucial. Likely their best target is Dave. The thing is, with only a limited number of players within secure alliances, many things can still happen.
EPISODE 7
What Happened:
The tribes were merged. Deena wins immunity and Roger was voted out.
Votes:
Alex, Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Roger
Butch, Dave & Roger voted Christy
The great: Rob turned on his former alliance mates at the right time despite Roger not being the best pick, but if that’s who the ladies want, he shouldn’t argue.
The good: Alex was sitting fourth in the Tambaqui tribe while Matt was sixth. They are now third and seventh respectively. Although not a bad vote, it’s hardly much of an improvement. This does improve Matt’s options though.
The dubious: Ladies first, sorry girls but you had it right earlier in this episode when you were thinking Dave. He is more of the threat, not only because of his athleticism but also because he has the ability to draw support if he ever figures out how this game works. Butch, Dave and Roger’s targeting Christy was also dubious. I know they were targeting the strongest female, but she represents the most isolated of that group and they should have been making their move for one of the leaders.
Who’s Left:
Alex, Butch, Christy, Dave, Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Alliances:
Dominant
Alliance: Alex, Heidi & Jenna
Weaker Alliance: Christy, Deena, Matt & Rob
Weaker Tribe: Butch & Dave
Strongest Position:
Jenna
Comments:
Wow, talk about overconfidence on the part of all of these players in definitely one of the most entertaining episodes this show has ever seen. Let’s start with the Roger pick first. Before the merge, the plan was to target Dave, the strongest immunity contender in the other tribe but once the ladies got a load of Roger they decided he would make the better pick and it didn’t take much convincing to get Alex, Matt and Rob to change their mind. Despite the immunity issue, there is a bigger reason that Dave was the much better pick. He is in a position to draw support from the large number of isolated players that are floating around in this game. Thus far he has shown no sign of actually learning how this game is played, but anything can happen once he sees things aren’t the way it seems. No matter how Roger decided to play, his personality would have hampered his ability to draw support, making him less of the threat. Heidi brought up the issue of Roger not voting for a woman if he were on the jury but this argument doesn’t hold up. The first concern should be getting to the end, not worrying about the jury and besides, Heidi’s plan should be to be opposite Jenna where Roger would have no choice but to vote for a woman. My tradition has always been to give a great ranking to anyone who turns on their tribe at the right time, hence the reason for Rob’s score despite Roger being a dubious choice. Alex position is slightly better than the fourth in his alliance with Roger, Dave and Butch, but not much. One has to wonder if he would have been better pairing with Rob and playing the loyal soldier for now and turning on them later. As for Matt, his position hasn’t improved at all, but Rob and Deena need to realize they are in the minority in this alliance and need support and Matt will be the natural person to change to.
Roger, Butch and Dave targeting Christy was not a much better choice. Although it really didn’t matter in the end, these guys should have been going for the leaders amongst the women in either Deena or Heidi. Immunity strength is a secondary concern, especially considering the athletic men they thought they had with them.
There are seven players in the dominant tribe and the relationships between them are exceedingly complex. Rob and Deena seem the pair, but are each drawing support from different people. Rob has got Alex along for the ride as well as Matt. Christy seems loyal to the women (in fact she is the only woman to vote for a male at each opportunity) and I suspect is closer to Deena than Heidi and Jenna. The thing is, with so many players things are very dynamic and the possibilities of further coups within this group are extremely high. As it turns out, Alex by this time had secured a deal with Heidi and Jenna, a good move for him as if he can take these two into the final three he stands an exceedingly good chance of winning the final immunity challenge and the final jury vote, though one can’t ignore that Heidi and Jenna out number him. Rob and Deena are making a mistake allying with Alex and should be taking in the support of the isolated Matt.
EPISODE 8
What Happened:
Jenna wins immunity and Dave was voted out.
Votes:
Alex, Butch, Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Dave
Dave voted Matt
The good: Dave was the right call from the dominant players in this game. Athletic and personable, he would have been a definite threat if he ever figured out how to play this game.
The dubious: Butch and Dave are not doing themselves any favours sucking up to the dominant players in this game. They need to stir the pot.
Who’s Left:
Alex, Butch, Christy, Deena, Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave
Alliances:
Dominant Alliance: Alex, Heidi & Jenna
Weaker Alliance: Christy, Deena, Matt & Rob
Weaker Tribe: Butch
Strongest Position:
Jenna
Comments:
Dave was the right and fairly obvious target. In the end, Dave continued to show how he really does not have an understanding of what to do. Sucking up to the dominant players at best might buy you three more days but your real goal should be to win the game. What he needed to do, along with Butch, was try to get these dominant players to turn on one another. There is certainly lots of distrust between these seven players and Matt and even Christy and Rob represent attractive people to try and work on to get them to see that the position they occupy is not at the top. Instead, both Butch and Dave decided flying below the radar was their best plan.
EPISODE 9
What Happened:
Matt wins immunity and Deena was voted out.
Votes:
Alex, Butch, Heidi, Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Deena
Christy & Deena voted Alex
The great: This was a great coup on the part of Alex, Heidi and Jenna. They are now the ones running the game
The good: Christy and Deena had this right in trying to remove their biggest threat in Alex. To bad Rob couldn’t see it this way. Butch and Matt also did the right thing. Removing Deena frees Rob and gives them options. See below.
The mistakes: Rob, what are you doing voting out a potential second? This is the time he should have pulled a coup. With Deena and Matt’s support he could have taken control of this game.
Who’s Left:
Alex, Butch, Christy, Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave, Deena
Alliances:
Dominant Alliance: Alex, Heidi, Jenna & Rob
Weaker Alliance: Matt
Weaker Tribe: Butch, Christy
Strongest Position:
Jenna
Comments:
What happened in this episode traces all the way back to the making of an unstable alliance. Deena and Rob should have been more observant and recognized that Alex was playing along with Heidi and Jenna. Deena, Rob, Christy and Heidi were discussing a plan to take out Alex if Matt won immunity and Heidi wasted absolutely no time sharing this information with Alex and Jenna. Alex in turn approached Rob about what was going on. This should have been Rob’s wake up call that Alex, Heidi and Jenna’s votes could not be counted upon. He should have had an emergency meeting with Deena and gone to plan B pulling in Matt, Butch and Christy into a new alliance. Actually, this should have been the alliance right from the merge as those three represent the greatest group of followers in this game. Instead they were overconfident and figured that Heidi and Jenna couldn’t think their way out of a paper bag. They found out they were wrong.
The other thing I think that was going on here is was that Rob was being too picking about who he was in an alliance with. Placing weight on who he enjoyed being around rather than what was strategically the best decision. Yes Rob, you were thinking with the wrong head after all. Rob was building a great game up until now and he can still pull this out of the fire by teaming up with Christy, Butch and Matt and making that move on Alex. Of course if he was inclined to do that he would have done so this episode and not lost a potential second. Butch and Matt’s stock has risen a bit here as well as they actually have options now. They could work on Rob and get him to see that the position he occupies is not a high one after all or, failing that, they could approach Alex and company regarding booting Rob. Somehow I think this overly aggressive alliance may actually walk straight into this trap. Alex, Heidi and Jenna should make their next move on Matt or Christy, hoping that Rob still trusts his connection with Alex. If they can successfully do that, they should be able to relax and ride out the rest of this game. I’ve busted Christy down to the weaker tribe because she lost her only true alliance mate in Deena.
EPISODE 10
What Happened:
Rob wins immunity and Alex was voted out.
Votes:
Butch, Christy, Matt & Rob voted Alex
Alex, Heidi & Jenna voted Matt
The great: Rob has now turned on his people for the third time. Given the situation he was in it was his best move, but one has to wonder who in this game could possibly be loyal to him
The good: All the other votes were solid.
Who’s Left:
Butch, Christy, Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave, Deena, Alex
Alliances:
Dominant Alliance: Butch, Christy, Matt, Rob
Weaker Alliance: None
Weaker Tribe: Heidi & Jenna
Strongest Position:
Matt
Comments:
Ah, revenge of the nerds. I don’t think I enjoyed a boot more since Jerri was voted off in Survivor-Australia. Anyway, on with the analysis. Rob did the best thing he could though it was himself that is to blame for the pickle he was in. Basically he rides from fourth in one alliance to fourth in another, but in the first he was fourth with no hope of improvement. In the later he has potential alliances and the person he should most be buddy-buddy with is the new king of the heap, Matt. Matt really has no reason to be loyal to any of these players as none of them showed any loyalty to him besides a loyalty of convenience. Despite that he is now the most respected player in his alliance and the definite front runner in this game. As for Alex, anyone who goes up to a player in his alliance and tells him he’s going at four deserves what he gets and if Jenna and Heidi need to be mad at someone for their current position all they need to do is look in a mirror.
EPISODE 11
What Happened:
Jenna wins immunity and passes it to Heidi. Christy was voted out.
Votes:
Heidi, Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Christy
Butch & Christy voted Jenna
The great: This makes screw number four for Rob but his best one yet. After fumbling for some time, he is now where he should be, on top of this game.
The good: Christy was playing the pagonging. It’s too bad she didn’t see the target on her back.
The dubious: Butch seemed to be out of the loop here but I suspect he knew what was going on but didn’t want to vote with the others. Having Christy around helps him and if he wanted her there he should have helped keep her rather than throw his vote away.
The mistakes: The weaker tribe shouldn’t help the dominant players remove threats. They should work on those players and try to get them to turn sides even if at first they seem reluctant to do so. Matt also made a mistake here. Christy could have played an important roll in his own alliance.
Addendum: I've decided to step down Rob's vote on Christy to an Interesting. There certainly were reasons to do it (as sighted above), but I cannot ignore that it leaves the powerful Jenna/Heidi pair intact. A better play may have been to try and retain Matt's loyalty (Rob's only real shot at a second) and build a new four player alliance with followers Butch and Christy playing back-up.
Who’s Left:
Butch, Heidi, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy
Alliances:
Dominant Alliance: Butch, Matt, Rob
Weaker Alliance: None
Weaker Tribe: Heidi & Jenna
Strongest Position:
Matt
Comments:
After fumbling around earlier in the game, Rob is finally getting himself into the dominant position. Matt had the opportunity to take complete control of the game by using Butch and Christy’s support to try and get Heidi and Jenna to turn on Rob (which shouldn’t have been that hard to do) but in the end Matt showed he is still simply riding in Rob’s shadow. Although removing Christy significantly improves Rob’s stock he still has the issue of having no one truly loyal to him. If Matt sticks with him throughout (I’m still not convinced he is that weak a player) than Rob is truly in the driver’s seat, but Matt has Butch’s solid support and that still gives him the edge over Rob if he decides to use it. This episode made it seem that Heidi and Jenna are now in control, they are not. Removing Christy takes away support from Matt and strengthens Rob’s hold on the game, not the two ladies. Heidi should now be the next to go (or Jenna if she wins immunity). This pair needs to be finally broken up. They will always vote together and the risk of a tie at four is too great if they both make the final four.
EPISODE 12
What Happened:
Rob wins immunity and Alex was voted out.
Votes:
Butch, Matt & Rob voted Heidi
Heidi & Jenna voted Rob
The good: All these votes are fine. The guys had to break up the girl pair. Voting Rob was a good as any for the girls
Who’s Left:
Butch, Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy, Heidi
Alliances:
Dominant Pair: Rob & Matt
Third: Butch
Fourth: Jenna
Strongest Position:
Matt
Comments:
After so many exciting and unpredictable votes, this one was a bit of a sleeper. Jenna spent a good part of this game complaining about being down and wanting to go. Don’t let this fool you. What she is upset about has nothing to do with being ill and has everything to do with a feeling of helplessness regarding the course of this game. She’ll wake up again if someone gives her a sniff of a hope. Speaking of which, the next boot should prove very interesting. Although I have Jenna as the fourth, a lot can still happen. Rob would likely want to see Butch go removing that support from Matt while at the same time Jenna has a good chance of picking Rob to go into the final two with – a mistake as Rob would likely beat any of the remaining players, even Butch. If Matt is the complete follower, Rob should be able to use his and Jenna’s support to get rid of Butch (Jenna would likely support any move that wasn’t directed at her). However, if Matt is the gamer, he won’t support this. This will force Rob to risk the tie or watch Jenna go. If Matt is truly good, he’ll use Jenna’s support to get rid of Rob himself. Who goes next will tell us a lot about how much Matt is playing this game.
EPISODE 13 – Part 1
What happened:
Jenna wins immunity and they vote out Butch.
Votes:
Jenna, Matt & Rob voted Butch.
Butch voted Rob.
The good: With everyone wanting Matt around, Rob and Butch’s votes become largely forced.
The mistakes: Rob is clearly the biggest threat left in this game. Matt and Jenna should have taken him out.
Who’s Left:
Jenna, Matt and Rob
Jury: Dave, Deena, Alex, Christy, Heidi, Butch
Alliances:
Dominant Pair: Matt & Rob
Third: Jenna
Strongest Position:
Matt
Comments:
I mentioned that how Matt plays this boot will tell us a lot and it did. He is Rob’s follower and seems extremely reluctant to step out from behind his shadow. If Matt wants to win this thing he has got to show that he is here to play and taking out Rob would have been a great move for him. Butch would have been loyal to Matt to the end and would have lost to him if Matt could have shown himself to be a leader rather than a follower. Jenna should also want to see Rob go as Rob will beat any one of them hands down in a jury vote. She could have down this by forcing a tie and seeing where those chips fell.
I still have Matt in the strongest position because he has support of Rob (I think) and Jenna, but the thing is he has not shown himself to be that leader and it is unclear whether he could win against either of these two in a jury vote.
EPISODE 13 – Part 2
What happened:
Jenna wins immunity and she votes out Rob.
The good: Jenna takes out the most popular player with the jury.
Jenna wins 6 – 1.
Alex, Christy, Dave, Deena, Heidi & Rob voted Jenna
Butch voted Matt.
Comments:
Although perhaps not the most the best played game ever (I would give that distinction to Marquesas) it certainly was the most interesting and kept us guess right up until the end. What did this game teach us? I think there are two things future players need to understand here. Number one is why Jenna won over Matt but number two is why Rob never made the final two, besides him falling off in the immunity challenge.
Jenna won because juries don’t like floaters and Matt never showed any willingness to stick his neck out and take control of this game despite being in that position of control from the moment Alex was voted out. Besides the very first tribal council, Matt voted with Rob every single time. If Matt showed once that he could think on his own as to whose name to write down he likely would have won this thing. Jenna on the other hand was out there, openly as part of the dominant alliance for much of the game with Heidi and Alex, but more importantly she showed that she made the decision as to where her vote goes. I don’t consider either of these two players head and shoulders above the other, but the lopsided nature of this vote shows clearly that winning survivor has nothing to do with working around the camp or even getting people to like you. It has everything to do with giving the perception that you are in the final two because of what you have between your ears.
Jeff Probst mentioned that Rob is the best player that never won Survivor, and that is likely true, but at the same time I think we need to go back and realize why Rob didn’t win this thing. Rob spent pretty much this entire game riding third or fourth banana in other people’s alliances and then flipping when the numbers no longer favoured him. This sounds fine at first but in the end Rob went into the final four without any strong allies. I trace his biggest (likely his only) mistake to teaming up with Alex, Heidi and Jenna in the first place. Soon after the merge, definitely before Deena got the boot, he should have formed his own alliance with him at the top. The likely candidates would have been him and Deena as the dominant pair backed up by loyal followers Butch, Christy and Matt, three players that never showed any signs of trying to attain leadership at any stage. Imagine the position Rob would have been in if he could have had Deena with him in the final four. Take out any one of the final four players in this game and replace that person with Deena and you have the classic final four that has successfully seen so many of our previous winners to the top. Rob would have been at the top of the heap instead of scrambling just to get past each tribal council. Don’t get me wrong, Rob played a great game, but he could have done better. This was his game to lose and he was the one that lost it.