11/01/03 05:17 PM

Some folks may recall that I've done this in the past. I got off to a slow start this year for two reasons. One, I really couldn't get into the show like I used to and two, this has been a bit of a crazy fall work wise. Anyway, I had some time this afternoon, so I put it together.

Basically, I give every vote a player writes a rating and a score from -2 to +3 (though I've yet to give a +3 to anyone). All these votes are based upon my own ideas on how this game should be played and how I see the players allied so yes, it's subjective as hell.

Anyway here are the totals.

Drake:

+5: Christa, Rupert, Sandra
+1: Jon, Shawn

Morgan:

+3: Tijuana
+2: Darrah
+1: Osten
0: Andrew, Ryan O.

Outcasts:

+2: Lillian
+1: Ryan S.
0: Trish
-1: Burton, Michelle, Nicole

Graph

Chart showing the rating for each vote.

I used to do this write up on each episode as to what I liked and didn't like, but no time. I guess the highlights would be,

Morgan's Worst Move: Voting out Ryan S instead of Osten, especially from Andrew's, Darrah's and Ryan O's prespective who needed to weaken Tijuana's hand. That guy was dead weight and a complete liability in the challenges, but Andrew seemed to have a hate on for Skinny Ryan for some bizzare, and likely jockish sort of reason.

Morgan's Best Move: Taking out Nicole early on, as she was obviously not working towards tribe unity. I think Ryan S and Lillian may have been better off trying to help Nicole in her campaign against Tijuana rather than falling in line, but watcha gonna do.

Drake's Worse Move: Throwing that bloody challenge. Even beyond that, Burton's, Michelle's and Shawn's reasons for wanting to take out Christa were lame. You want to take control of the tribe, go for the head on the other side. If you don't think you have the strength to do that, lay low and bide your time.

Drake's Best Move: The coup on Trish. That was great.

Editted to fix links.

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

11/07/03 08:19 AM

I think Lilian made a great move switching over to Drake. In her own tribe she was up against a clique that she was never going to break into, and she knew it. At Drake there is a chance that Burton will stay loyal to her. Drake targeting the leader on the other side was their obvious play, good job for them, but Morgan going after Jon was wrong. Jon's a loose cannon and unpredictable. He is exactly the kind of player you want kicking around right now. Their ideal target would have been Rupert, but of course Burton removed that possibility (although it sure doesn't seem they were thinking along those lines anyway). They should have shifted to Christa or Sandra. Anyone but Jon.

So ...

+2 for Lillian
+1 for Rupert, Sandra, Christa, Jon and Burton.
-1 for Andrew, Tijuana, Darrah and Ryano

Points on active players.

+6: Christa, Rupert & Sandra
+4: Lillian
+2: Jon & Tijuana
+1: Darrah
0: Burton
-1 Ryano

Chart
Graph

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

11/14/03 10:11 AM

I'm in a good mood this week. Everyone gets a point.

Total points for active players:

+7: Christa, Rupert & Sandra
+5: Lillian
+3: Jon & Tijuana
+2: Darrah
+1: Burton

Voting Chart
Graph

I was really impressed with how Burton has adapted his play. No more clique alliance like he had with Shawn and Michelle. Lillian and Jon are a perfect trio for him. Team up with Darah and Tijuana and then trim out one of these two later. Making the move on Rupert at this stage is too early (hopefully, him winning immunity is not the only reason they bailed). You don't need Ryano as that would put the three exMorgans on equal voting with Burton, Jon and Lil. Good move to wait. Lil is Burton's greatest asset and he better treat her good and pray she has the nerve to go through with this.

Sandra and Christa on the other hand are nuts to want to get rid of Rupert. No one else is in their court and once Rupert goes, they will soon follow.

Normally I frown upon minority tribe members that play suck up to the dominant tribe but this time Drake has shown itself to be so fractured that not fighting for Ryan was likely Darah's and Tijuana's best move. There is no need for them to stir the pot. It's already boiling.

Lil is the one with the toughest decision ahead of her. Rupert obviously considers her in his final four, and perhaps his best move is to make a final two promise, but Lil has got to show she is just not a floater and take control of this thing if she wants any chance of winning. Her best course is to stick with Burton.

One thing this episode definately showed was the lack of allies Rupert has. Obviously it's a problem when almost everyone there is trying to get rid of you. Lil is the only player left that may put loyalty ahead of strategy. Rupert needs her desperately and should be doing everything he can to convince her she is going to the final two with him.

All in all, a rather dull boot, but the next episode should be fun.

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

11/21/03 11:04 AM

Well, almost everyone undid there positive gains last week. Here comes the world according to HC, starting with the move on Rupert.

You know, I think I've been too wrapped up in the Extended Edition Two Towers but I should have realized this last week. The move on Rupert was premature. Jon said it best, "you can't hand me number 4 and expect me to be happy with that." Exactly, and Jon and Burton are making a mistake if they think either Tijuana and Darah or Sandra and Christa will be happy with the same. These are both dangerous pairs and one of them should have gone before the move on Rupert. The dominant alliance (Rupert/Sandra/Christa) were content with going at Darah. Great, let her go and restrict Tijuana's options, then go after Rupert (or Christa if he wins immunity). Now the four ladies best, and rather obvious move, is to team up and dispose the dominant males in Burton and Jon. With Darrah out of the picture, Tijuana's options become more limited. Promise her final four and with Lil, Burton and Jon run the game.

-1 for Burton, Jon and Lil.

Okay, now for Rupert's counter move. Oh wait a sec, he didn't make a counter move. These guys knew a plan was being cooked up and should have made a move on either Burton or Jon by approaching Tijuana and Darrah and promising whatever it took. It may have worked or it may not have. It's not like Burton isn't the immunity threat and I'm sure they are enjoying the fish Rupert is catching. It certainly is a better option than just going according to plan and don't even get me started on Sandra's Jon vote.

-1 for Rupert, Sandra and Christa.

That leaves the beneficiaries of all this being Tijuana and Darrah. Removing Rupert throws the dominant tribe into flux and that can only be a good thing when you are the underdogs.

+1 to Darrah and Tijuana.

This leaves us,

+6: Christa & Sandra
+4: Lillian & Tijuana
+3: Darrah
+2: Jon
0: Burton

Voting Chart
Vote Points Graph

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

11/27/03 10:20 AM

Play just isn't getting better here. The ball keeps moving from one court to the other but instead of taking it and running, players seem eager to just throw it back over the net.

It looked like Sandra and Christa had the right idea. Tijuana and Darah are best off teaming up with these two and removing Burton. It amazes me that Tijuana bought for a second Burton's final two nonsense, but what amazes me even more was that she approached Jon regarding taking out Burton. You had four votes, that's enough. What are you doing messing with that? If you want to make a deal with Jon, fine, do it after he doesn't have Burton's vote in his hip pocket anymore.

And Sandra and Christa, you ain't off the hook either. You had the chance to be half of the dominant four. Instead you threw it right back to Burton and Jon. Jeffy said it well during tribal council, it's all about mutual self interest. Tijuana and Darrah need Sandra and Christa far more than Burton and Jon do and that mutual self interest would have likely kept them loyal longer. Right now Burton and Jon have the ball again, but whether they'll hang on to it - in other words, keep Lil happy and vote out Sandra or Christa next - or whether they'll mess that up is anyone's guess.

Anyway, on to the points.

+1 to Burton, Jon, Lil, Tijuana and Darah
-1 to Sandra and Christa

Current standings.

+5: Christa, Sandra, Lil
+4: Darrah
+3: Jon
+1: Burton

Chart and Graph.

I gotta say, it's been a lot of fun watching this season but I can't say that the voting has been anything to write home about. Here are the point standings at the same stage from previous Survivors.

Borneo:
+8: Rudy
+7: Richard
+4: Sue
+3: Colleen
+2: Kelly
-1: Sean

Australia:
+9: Colby & Tina
+8: Keith
+6: Amber
+1: Elizabeth & Roger

Africa:
+4: Ethan & Kim J
+2: Kim P
+1: Lex & Tom
-1: Teresa

Marquesas:
+10: Sean & Vecepia
+6: Neleh & Paschel
+4: Kathy
+1: Robert

Thailand:
+5: Brian & Clay
+3: Ted & Helen
+2: Jan
-1: Jake

Amazon:
+7: Heidi & Matt
+6: Jenna & Rob
+3: Butch
+2: Christy

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

12/05/03 08:08 PM

Pretty obvious play for Burton and Jon - one point for them and their supporters. Christa and Sandra were still out to lunch to ever trust them, but by this stage there likely isn't much else to do. Zero points for them. I'm also tweaking their score from last week as they really did throw the game away helping to take out Tijuana (-2 instead of -1).

Current points:

+6: Lillian
+5: Darrah
+4: Jon & Sandra
+2: Burton

Graph / Chart

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham

12/12/03 03:35 PM

Well you can take the boy out of the jock but you can't take the jock out of the boy - or something like that.

After building himself just about the perfect alliance with annoying Jon as a second and marshmallows Lillian and Darrah bringing up the rear, Burton had to mess with it. If Lillian wakes up, you know you're playing too hard. Burton did look like he learned from his earlier dismissal, at least for a while, but it didn't take him too long to fall into the exact same behaviours that saw him go the last time - cliqueing with a small group of people while issolating everyone else and thinking they're dumb as posts. Well guess what Burton? It takes more than two people to make an alliance. You got what you deserve.

Anyway, on to the points.

+2 to Sandra. She was the one that really had a decision to make and thankfully (this time anyway) she made the right one. She virtually threw the game away back when she helped get rid of Tijuana but Burton and Jon have thrown it back to her again, don't blow it this time.

+1 to Darah and Lil: Considering they were next on the chopping block, this was a no brainer (well, for most people anyway)

-1 to Jon and Burton: You guys blew it (again!). All you had to do was make Lil and Darah feel safe and they would have road with you right to the end.

Standings of the remaining players.

+7: Lillian
+6: Darah and Sandra
+3: Jon

Graph / Chart

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

12/15/03 09:47 AM

Definately a strange game characterized more by it's mistakes than anything else. Burton continually siezing control but then fumbling the ball but Sandra not wanting to pick it up and throwing it right back to him. In the end Burton fumbled one to many times and Sandra picked it up and held on for the win. Good stuff.

Most satisfying final episode since Africa and I'm really pumped for All-stars and considering how down I was on the franchise at the beginning, that is indeed an accomplishment.

Anyway, on to points.

Darrah boot: This is the moment when Sandra really won this game, removing the only player that may not take her into the final two. +2 for Sandra. Other than removing a player that is not them, this move does little for Lillian and Jon, +1 for them. -1 for Darrah in swallowing Jon's nonsense and going after Lil which precipitated her own departure.

Jon boot: What can be said? As with Colby and MamaKim before her, she thought with her heart and not with her head and it likely cost her the game. -1

Final point standings (number in brackets indicates all time ranking):

+8: Sandra (10)
+7: Lil (15)
+6: Rupert (21)
+5: Darrah (22) & Tijuana (27)
+4: Jon (29) & Christa (32)
+1: Burton (81), Ryan S (84), Shawn (86) & Osten (87)
0: Ryan O (93) & Trish (97)
-1: Andrew (104), Michelle (106) & Nicole (110)

Graph / Chart

You can find the rest of my crazy statistical crap here.

H.C.

"You've got to play this game with fear and arrogance."

-Crash Davis in Bull Durham