| PANIC, PREPARATION AND OUR
GOVERNMENT
People tend to be in awe of computers and the skill of people who can
make them sing. They have impressed us, so we trust them. The notion that
computers will crash and cause panic and social unrest is beyond the comprehension
of most people. There was a world without computers a very short
time ago and many people remember that we got along just fine without them.
So naturally they think we can get along just fine without them again.
It is no longer that simple. We can't go back that easily or quickly
enough considering the short time that remains.
Many experts have painted various Y2K scenarios. In general the
worst case scenarios are those that will result if people "just don't
get it," and thus do not prepare. The bright side (if there is any)
is that if enough finally do "get it," in time, the severity could be lessened.
The worst case Y2k scenarios will not be caused by computer malfunctions
alone. It will be the sum total of computer glitches AND social upheaval
from emotional reactions of the unprepared. It will be the unprepared
who cause the panic and chaos once they finally discover the reality of
Y2k after it is too late to prepare. Unfortunately most people still
"don't get it" - it's a fact - and it's a pity.
Society is presently in the procrastination mode. The next
mode is panic. The familiar pre-hurricane buying spree is the best example,
although probably an inadequate one - it will probably be much worse than
that.
Your main questions have now become: "What will I do between now and
the inevitable panic? Will I reallocate my budget early or late?
Will I do survival preparation now or merely wish I had, after it is too
late?"
Some are saying the government is walking the high-wire and that if
they raised an alarm, it might create a panic, and if they didn't, Y2 will
not be fixed. I don't really buy the part about raising the early
alarm causing a panic. If the potential dangers of Y2K were
honestly announced beforehand, giving time for people to prepare, it would
prevent panic. Sen. Robert Bennett says: "There is no question
that there could be panic as some people over react to the challenges.
We must make sure that the information on Y2K is accurate and timely, to
avoid panic. Even if the information is bad, if it is accurate, people
can make wise contingency plans. This is a massive public education challenge."
These are good words, but maybe a little bit too late - we have neither
received Y2K information that is accurate or timely - panic has not been
avoided. It will come like the plague.
Panic is like pressure in the boiler. If the pressure relief valve
(early announcement) functioned, the pressure (panic) level would not grow
very high and the situation would be nicely under control. However,
bypassing the relief valve function causes the pressure to build and build
- - -till there is a giant destructive explosion (PANIC). This will
then be an emergency situation which could open to door to government intervention
in ways that we don't want. The question naturally arises as
to whether this is a case of epidemic incompetence of the federal government
or whether there is some kind of bungling manipulation involved?
Are our misguided leaders grabbing onto a situation and making the most
of it for their "increased government and increased control" intentions.
Government utilizes emergencies to manipulate us. Emergencies
can be created, developed, and in some cases just appropriated. I
don't really think the Y2K situation was the invention of government, although
if they were doing their job, they should have recognized the Y2K problem
early and taken measures to prevent it from being the problem that it has
become. But, mostly, it is a technical problem that was just ignored
too long. But it does have the potential of becoming an emergency
if the government continues to underplay the Y2K situation. Eventually
Y2K will turn into full blown panic. Is this what the government
wants to happen?
One mechanism for increased government and loss of our freedoms is through
emergency situations. Emergency situations (i.e. wartime) are a time
when we are especially willing (either by force or patriotism) to give
up more of our freedoms, enabling our government to be our protector to
an even higher degree. It is a pattern, that freedoms lost are seldom
restored, once the emergency is over. It is also a pattern that once
taxes are raised for an emergency situation, they are seldom lowered, even
after the emergency situation has ceased.
If the federal government has been deliberately dragging their feet
on the Y2K issue just so an emergency situation will develop, panic will
have been deliberately created, or at least significantly helped along.
At this late date, It would only be fair to say, that panic will come,
no matter what the government says or doesn't say at this point. That's
because Y2K is coming, no matter what the government does or doesn't do.
The government had a chance to something to prevent or mitigate the Y2K
problem, but they did nothing.
Following is a list of general truths that lead to the inevitable conclusion
that time is running out for any who would prepare themselves for what
is to come. This information, had it been previously heeded would
have constituted an early warning. It is no longer "early."
Perhaps, even yet, the few that "get it" can still do some
survival preparation. Those that wait too long will become victims.
Everyone will eventually understand the seriousness of the Y2K threat -
it will be impossible to ignore - but it will be too late to prepare.
ITEM #1
By means of widespread sophisticated computer systems, producers have
developed just-in-time manufacturing and delivery systems. Economic forecasting
lets businesses predict with great accuracy what large numbers of people
will be buying months or even years in advance.
ITEM #2
The earlier that people see and believe that a crisis is coming, the
better the market can respond.
[Fantasy] Manufacturers would stop producing items that no one will
be buying as the crisis draws near. (not the way it works)
[Fantasy] They would produce those items that buyers want in preparation
for a disaster. (markets do not do this, for many reasons)
ITEM #3
They won't produce those items that buyers want in preparation for
a disaster. The main reason is that panics cannot be forecasted accurately.
But there is another: producers cannot come to grips with the crisis. They
cannot believe that it's coming. So, they ignore it in the same way that
the average buyer ignores it: until it's too late.
ITEM #4
Shortages will appear in late 1999 that cannot be met except by huge
price increases of key goods -- and falling prices for others, such as
new cars, which will no longer be in demand.
ITEM #5
Those people who are unable to buy at the new prices will cry out in
rage and demand anti-gouging legislation, i.e., price controls. If these
laws are passed, they will create black markets in the high-demand goods
markets. These goods will disappear from the legal, price-controlled markets
and move into the black markets. This will escalate the public panic even
more.
ITEM #6
The free market has lowered production costs by a universal process
of inventory-reduction. Retailers use computers to send re-ordering information
to producers. Wal-Mart is the master here. There are no large inventories
any more. This means that unforecasted shifts in consumer demand will leave
most buyers without the items they want. If demand increases for a narrow
spectrum of goods, the market cannot respond fast enough with supplies.
We are about to face a phenomenon the world has not seen since the
boat shortage in Noah's day.
ITEM #7
The whole world will want to stock up on certain items that will not
be in the production pipeline in quantities required to meet demand under
the new conditions.
We do not see this yet except in certain oddball survivalist items,
such as low-priced, pre-assembled food storage programs (eight-month delivery
times). People can still buy the same food items at food co-ops, but they
are either lazy or ill-informed about the co-op option. But if large numbers
of people find out about food co-ops, then supplies there will dry up as
lines get long.
ITEM #8
The retail delivery markets cannot respond in time to a major shift
in consumer demand. The world's marketing systems do not allow more than
a small fraction of population to buy a year's supply of stored food. The
system does not have the excess capacity to deliver the goods. It's too
late to change this now.
ITEM #9
In states that have passed anti-gouging laws it is a crime to raise
prices before or especially after a major physical crisis. So, stores
will not be allowed to allocate by price. Instead, they will allocate
by getting people to stand in line. People who get to the stores early
buy everything in sight, since prices are still low. By law, the free market
is not allowed to allocate by price.
ITEM #10
The only other option to control allocation of limited quantities of
products, would be martial law: standing in line to get just a few items
that the military authorities allow you to have. (Why, this is America,
our federal government would never declare martial law like this, would
they? Only in an EMERGENCY, my friend. Picture clean cut grim
young military personnel standing around with machine guns, held in a menacing
way - but you will have nothing to fear as long as you are meek and subservient
- or have already prepared in advance - then you won't have had to be in
this line at all).
In late 1999, the whole world will face the ultimate EMERGENCY. The
stores will be stripped. Most people will be left out in the cold. There
is not enough production in the pipelines to meet demand for the items
that will preserve life, beginning with land with a water well located
in a less densely populated region. You know: a place like Taos, New Mexico,
or even northwest Arkansas.
We are seeing this today. Y2K can be dated. Contrary to the "nobody
knows what will happen" nonsense, it's easy to see what will happen in
its broad outline. Just take the hurricane scenario that speakers love
to use. What do people buy in the hours before a hurricane. That's what
they will be buying, if the banks are still open, in late 1999. But producers
just cannot believe this is possible. If they did, they would quit, take
early retirement, cash out their retirement programs, and head for the
hills. Here is another Y2K Catch-22. When the Y2K story is truly
believed, wise people cash out of conventional production and start devoting
more time to personal preparation. It's another reason why the market does
not respond to the obvious implications of Y2K.
If you can't understand this, think "Jews, Germany, 1933." The wise
ones left the country. The ones who did not see what was coming stayed
-- and criticized the "cowards" who had left. Had they heard of MEIN KAMPF?
Of course. Had they read it? Parts of it, probably. Did they believe it?
No. Did they think Hitler really meant what he said? No.
The popularity of the hurricane analogy points to the nonsense that
"nobody knows what will happen." Probably a million people know, at least
in the broad outline. They just don't know that it will have 200 mile an
hour winds and will last for a year or more. But they know a hurricane
is coming. It's that hardly any of them emotionally accepts the effects
of that hurricane. Koskinen discusses this phenomenon. People who live
in hurricane regions have become complacent about them. They assume that
they will be safe. Government will somehow protect them. They refuse to
evacuate. "It won't happen to me!"
Only one thing gets most people to act: an imminent disaster. Only then
will they reallocate their spending. Too late.
Are you like the U.S. government? If so, you're equally doomed.
Here are a few excerpts from the NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM, TELECOMMUNICATIONS
SPEECH SERVICE. . . .(Prepared remarks of Mr. John Koskinen, Assistant
to the President and Chair, President’s Council on Year 2000 Conversion,
before the President’s National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee
(NSTAC) Business Session, Washington, September 10, 1998. . . .) in conjunction
with editorial comments:
"We need to get people around the world to take the problem seriously,
but, at the same time, we don’t want them to unnecessarily panic and take
actions that would be counterproductive."
[Calm down, trust us (your eye lids are getting heavy), we are the government,
your protector, and you have nothing to worry about. You need not
even think of taking any responsibility for yourselves or any independent
action whatsoever. Even though martial law will be declared (for
your good), there are just so many troops that can be dispatched and they
can't be everywhere at once, so you must remain calm, docile and controllable.]
"With this problem, panic can take many forms. It’s not just packing
up and moving to a vacant lot in New Mexico. Much of the overreaction that
could prove difficult will involve large numbers of people deciding, for
one reason or another, to change their normal behavioral patterns."
[You need not even think of taking any responsibility for yourselves
or any independent action whatsoever. I implore you to stay where
you are and take no action, just do the same as you always do. Since
we were unable to get the national ID card scheme established and operational
in time, we can't limit your actions or your movements by state border
guards demanding at gunpoint your ID, but we implore you to only do what
we advise. You can trust your lives to us. If you can't trust
your government, who can you trust? For you to relocate to safer
places, would be an indication that you do not trust our ability to control
the inevitable civil unrest that has resulted from the Y2K emergency that
we have appropriated for our use, and the ensuing panic that will inevitably
occur. Surely you have more faith and trust in your government than
this. And, hey, get rid of your weapons - if we have to root
you out of your hideaways, you don't want to experience a Ruby Ridge or
Waco scenario, do you? Yes, we did kill an innocent gun shop owner
in cold blood recently. Please understand that even though we are
basically kind and benevolent, we can be tough also - and we do need to
demonstrate this from time to time. But, you have nothing to fear
as long as you do what we say.]
"If 100 million Americans change anything they do in their normal pattern
of economic behavior, whether it's deciding to take money out of the stock
market to protect their IRAs [Individual Retirement Accounts] or show up
at their gas stations in the last week of December to fill up their tanks,
that will be a problem. As we all learned in the 1973 oil crisis, there's
not enough gas in the pipeline to fill up everybody's tank, and if there
isn't enough gas or there isn't enough canned food or if there aren't enough
drugs available, you can imagine the panic that will result when people
say, "See, there isn't going to be enough of everything, and there is,
in fact, a great problem here."
[Well, I think this is a good thing for all the other people to do (not
really), but I think I will fill my gas tank. Actually, this is something
I do regularly anyway and I will probably continue this pattern, but probably
won't wait till New Year's eve of 1999 to do it. It would probably
be a good idea to store as much fuel as you can safely manage. Actually
I will have some survival food also, purchased well in advance of the full
blown panic. If everyone would prepare well in advance, this will
tend to alleviate the panic, rather than add to it. Actually those
in denial, or those following government advice are the ones that will
exacerbate the Y2K scenario into a bull blown panic. Thanks for the
reminder to pick up some extras drugs that might help us to survive the
panic. Anyone who is not getting out of the stock market (except
possibly for gold related stocks) before the financial meltdown is to be
truly pitied. Our friendly government advisor is telling us to not
bail out of this plane that is in an uncontrollable power nose dive about
to hit Albert Gores Mother Earth.]
"We've gotten through other seemingly difficult situations, and we'll
certainly be able to get through this one without people having to decide
to buy a year's supply of anything."
[Anything is possible. A lot of people are already in this mode
and will probably stay there - lots of luck.]
"My standing up and saying "Don't take your money out of the bank, there's
no problem" will simply lead everybody to say, "I guess I better get there
quick before everybody else does." . . .
[Now this is one of his better and more truthful statements. I
guess I better get there quick before everybody else does. Hey, this
guy isn't all bad is he? Actually he has a difficult job to
perform. Wouldn't you just hate to get up and say all the things
he is obligated to say? I wonder what he really thinks.
Do you suppose he is secretly preparing?]
"We could have, if not the equivalent of, something that is very much
like a hurricane on the East Coast, an earthquake in San Francisco, massive
forest fires in Montana, and flooding on the Mississippi River happening
all at once. In addition to that, we could have two or three countries
where there's civil unrest because the government can't provide basic services.
We know how to deal with each one of those things. The question is, will
we have the capacity and the resources to deal with them all at once. No
one of them alone is necessarily overwhelming or threatening, but the combination
is something we normally don't plan for. . . . "
[All true statements, but without a conclusion. Let be provide
one. I have serious doubts that the Y2K situation can or will be
effectively dealt with by our government or any government. Very
possibly, the situation is so large in magnitude and in complexity and
in interconnectedness internally and with other countries, that it will
be virtually impossible to fully control. This leaves each individual
in the position of trying to provide for their own Y2K family survival
needs the best they can, with no real assurance that whatever they do will
really be adequate. But everyone at least needs to try. Mostly,
it will be in God's hands to eventually help us to straighten out this
mess. After all, even though the end of the world is coming to an
end some day, this is not it. So, do what you can to survive the
temporary emergency. No one can tell you the time factor (the duration),
but three weeks worth of survival preparation is better than none.
But then, maybe it will take six months worth, or maybe a year's worth.
It is your lottery, it is your life, pick a number. Just don't
be in denial. Don't take the government recommendations too seriously
- remember their agenda is not the same as yours. Their recommendations
relate to their control of you, not necessarily what is really in your
best interest. Since no one really knows how bad Y2K will really
be, there is the possibility that it won't amount to much of anything at
all - maybe two or three days of power outages, maybe a few inconveniences
here and there. Possibly those who don't prepare will make out just
fine, but it is a gamble. I don't like gambling and never do it myself,
Occasionally, there are big winners - mostly there are losers. You
could also play Russian Roulette and win - but why would you want to play
it?]
The above remarks of Mr. John Koskinen have been listed with comments.
Sen. Robert Bennett, is also a part of the government, but seems to be
a little more down to earth - maybe just a little on the optimistic side,
so as to not discourage anyone too much, but pointed enough to encourage
taking Y2K seriously. In answer to the question "How badly do you
expect the failure of other countries' systems to affect the US?," Sen.
Robert Bennett replies: "Still too early to be specific, but it could be
serious. Example - we get 55% of our oil from other countries, several
of which will not be ready. This could trigger an interruption of
oil similar to the one we had in the early 70's. That gave us a recession.
There are other scenarios that could follow this one. We are following
this closely in my committee - check with us in about six months, when
we are closer to the event. . ."
Planning on taking a trip across the US in early 2000 with your
gas guzzler? - maybe not. Sound's like gasoline and diesel might
be in short supply and cost a lot of money - maybe even rationed.
Fuel will be even harder to purchase due to short supply and we might
also be in the middle of a recession. Maybe you had ought to plan
your trip a little earlier. Some are old enough to remember the gas
shortage of the 70's. It was an irratating inconvenience, but not
life threatening. Sen. Bennett hints there may be other scenarios
following this one. Is anyone expecting good news?
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