Ufomind Paranormal Research Index
|
*
***
*****
*******
*********
***********
*************
The Mothership |
|
Great '98 Predictions Contest - Results
From: "Peter P." <ptp@primenet.com>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 11:08:53 -0800
|
[ Followup to a posting in Feb. 1998: "1998 Predictions Contest"
Found at: http://www.ufomind.com/misc/1998/feb/d18-001.shtml ]
LOOKING BACK AT LOOKING FORWARD: THE GREAT '98 PREDICTIONS CONTEST RESULTS
by Peter Petrisko (ptp@primenet.com)
As 1997 ended, with the year ahead still to be written, the following
question was posed --
Can a person with no developed psychic abilities, nor training in any
methods of divination whatsoever, predict the future any better than the
so-called "professionals"?
To answer this question, one such person -- namely, *me* -- made up twenty
predictions for 1998, then seeked out similar lists by those who'd been
prognosticating for years in many cases.
Annual predictions from psychic Sylvia Browne, remote viewer Ed Dames,
Native prophecies interpreter Robert Ghost Wolf, psychic & astrology
scholar Sean David Morton, and visionary Gordon-Michael Scallion were
collected.
Additionally, predictions for the first quarter of '98 by Annie Kirkwood
were also compiled, with the intention of adding more to her short list
when predictions for the remainder of the year were given. However, this
didn't come to pass, as Kirkwood didn't release that followup list to the
general public. Also, the annual predictions of Canadian psychic Earl
Curley were originally included, but were later deleted from the tracking
project upon his death in June '98.
In the twelve months that followed, this plethora of prophecy was
carefully monitored, each prediction tracked via television, newspaper and
online media sources. As 1998 came to a close, the resulting "hits" and
"misses" were carefully tabulated.
The following is a synopsis of each prognosticator's predictions, broken
down one-by-one. Whichever is in the majority, whether "hits" or "misses",
comes first, followed by those predictions in the minority and then those
with debatable aspects. Individuals are listed in order of accuracy --
from the *least* accurate to the *most* accurate...
Ever heard the phrase, "Jack of all trades, master of none?" By looking at
his twenty predictions for '98, one might think it was referring to Sean
David Morton. Psychic, channeler, faith healer, "Area 51" tour guide,
amateur Egyptologist, Nostradamus scholar, and consultant for a
UFO-contactee -- Morton has worn many guises in the decade or so he's
walked in paranormal circles. If his vision of the last year did come to
pass, the Federal Reserve would've crashed, we'd all be using "smart
cards" instead of paper money, the Internal Revenue Service "as we know
it" (as Morton put it) would be gone, political turmoil involving the
resignation of Al Gore, the naming of Ted Kennedy as his replacement and
the resignation of a scandal-ridden Clinton (but not before that predicted
presidential heart attack!) should have occurred. As for Fidel Castro -
can we say "overthrown"? (Later in the year, Morton did alter the
timetable on Castro's overthrow a bit. He's now got until January 25,
'99.) Poor Madeleine Albright would be dead or injured after a terrorist
attack, scores of dams in northern California were supposed to break,
major quakes might've struck Canada and north of San Francisco (7.2M and
6.0+M, respectively), noticeable rises in heat & UV-ray activity should've
resulted from "ozone holes" opening over Los Angeles, and lastly,
"Unabomber" Ted Kaczynski would have a date with the electric chair.
Not to say Morton's predictions were all "misses". He did predict a
hurricane in the Caribbean "wiping out" Cuban industry, and Hurricane
Georges did do extensive damage to the island-nation. In lower
California, power grids did go off for a number of days last winter. There
were quite a number of forest fires in Colorado (although whether or not
these could be called "massive", as Morton predicted, might be debatable),
and there were a number of cases of the jet stream touching down near
ground level, causing high winds.
Two other predictions bear a closer look - With one, the wording was
apparently slightly different in two different broadcasts. In the first,
on a local KGO-AM show, Morton said "an STD (sexually transmitted
disease)" would be cured, adding "probably AIDS". However, on the
nationally syndicated show 'Coast to Coast AM', he said, "A major medical
cure for a major sexual disease" would be found. Since the second one is
better documented (via RealAudio), it will be the wording used here.
Within those parameters, as Morton himself has claimed, the drug Viagra as
a cure for impotency fits the bill. The other prediction, also claimed as
a "hit" by Morton, has documented evidence stacked against it. It involved
a "UFO mothership filmed in broad daylight", while the incidents cited by
Morton as proof of this occurring were of lights filmed at night. (See -
http://www.m-m.org/jz/mortonb.html )
Sean David Morton's score? Some five out of twenty correct. ACCURACY
RATING = 25%
Under the auspices of his Beverly Hills-based "technical remote viewing"
company Psi-Tech, Major Ed Dames has pontificated a message of "doom and
gloom" since the early 1990s. Originally envisioned as a form of "psychic
espionage" by the U.S. military, Dames took what he learned and, after his
retirement, - as he put it - "finessed and refined" the remote-viewing
training protocols, taking it into the private sector.
Of the thirteen targeted scenarios viewed for '98, the following never
materialized: A "plant pathogen" cylindric object from space didn't impact
near Lake Victoria (in Africa) by/around the end of February, nor did the
later amended "view" of such an object disintegrating in the air instead,
leading to air-borne spores killing plants world-wide, appear to occur. In
fact, the usual global assortment of fungi, and other plant-killing
organisms, did not appear to increase appreciably - as the effects of such
a "pathogen" were seen to do. The North Koreans didn't use a
missile-mounted nuclear weapon against their southern neighbors before the
end of last winter, nor was "a nuclear reactor (used) as a weapon" in
northern Spain shortly thereafter, as Dames said it would be. President
Clinton did "make it to the end of the year". No reports of cannibalism
came out of eastern Europe. A "bigger/stronger"-type tornado, one that
literally ripped people asunder, wasn't seen in the U.S. Midwest. A war
involving the PLO and Israel didn't occur. A global economic collapse
never happened in late spring and/or early summer, although economic
hardships did continue in the Asian region and some parts of the world
experienced recessionary times towards the end of the summer -- but
certainly not to the extent, economically nor regionally, as viewed by
Dames.
Interestingly, North Korea did launch a ballistic missile, which splashed
down near Japan, last summer. Also, air-borne radioactivity was detected
over parts of Europe (including Spain) around the same time, which was
eventually tracked down to an alleged leak at a steel plant in the region.
Both of these events, in the very loosest sense, have parallels to two of
Dames' remote viewed predictions. This makes one wonder if, perhaps, the
so-called "finessing" of the RV protocols by Dames might just have been a
little too finessed, adversely affecting the delineation of details and,
ultimately, accuracy.
As far as accurate views go, there was quite an increase in diseases -
also resulting in an increase in the deaths of children - but not nearly
to the extent ("totally ravaged globally", "so virulent, so rapidly that
the CDC, & other centers akin to that, won't be able...to keep up...")
seen by Dames. In many regions, these increases were due to El
Nino-inspired flooding and other destruction. So, while Dames was correct
about the effects on children, his general view might be considered
half-correct.
Dames was absolutely correct about the U.S. being unable to make it
through a season without crops being damaged and destroyed in many places,
with food prices skyrocketing as a direct result in many cases. And, while
a coronal mass ejection and/or solar flare from our sun didn't hit Earth,
blinding and burning people, a blast of X-ray ejecta from a nearby star
did pound into our planet in August. Again, this could be seen as being
"partially correct" in what Dames had predicted.
Dames also said the next volcanic eruption in North America would be
Mammoth Mountain, but since no eruption occurred on that continent in '98,
the prediction becomes moot and isn't counted as a "hit" or "miss".
Major Ed Dames' score? Three (that being 2 "hits" and two "half-hits"
combined) out of the remaining twelve viewed scenarios correct. ACCURACY
RATING = 25%
Perhaps the longest-running prognosticator tracked in the last year was
visionary Gordon-Michael Scallion. Shortly after a life-changing series of
events which began in 1979, events paralleling those of Edgar Cayce
decades earlier, Scallion began his career with vision-induced medical
diagnosis. He later began to see visions of "Earth changes". In '98, most
of his predictions were of this latter type.
A good number of the more extreme visions didn't come to pass as Scallion
expected in '98, including the almost-weekly failure "en masse" of
magnetic devices and electronic circuitry (especially satellites &
aircraft), the first measurable pole shift - of 6-7 degrees each time in
"about three stages" - in a westerly movement, a catastrophic volcanic
eruption at Montserrat (although a few rather minor eruptions did occur),
the complete melt-off of the Antarctic with land and structures then
revealed, and a "significant release" occurring in Italy. (A large number
of minor temblors occurred in that country throughout the year, however.)
Scallion foresaw "highest stress and greatest releases" of tectonic
activity along the coast of South America, and along the U.S.
West Coast, plus such activity - greater and sooner - in Japan. Activity
along South America's coast, itself within the already tectonically active
"Ring of Fire", generally wasn't much greater than in previous years. At
Japan - usually the most active area in the world - the "greater and
sooner" activity was usurped in the early part of '98, in both magnitude
and frequency, by quakes in the Phillipines region, the Fiji Islands and
Indonesia. However, the case could be made that the U.S. West Coast did
see "high stress" throughout the year, with at least one "great release"
of 6.0M just south of Alaska during late summer.
Other "hits" include rising ocean levels, with coastlines changing in some
parts of the world (especially island-nations in the Pacific); tornadoes
occurred in strange places - such as New York state (only 7 in the last 24
years before '98) and the Russian Far East (first ever); and more
vulcanism in the last year, although only by a small margin (two more than
the previous year.) Also, it was reported in early '99 that brain tumors
(i.e. "more effects of brain cancer") have been inexplicably on the rise.
In addition to the thirteen predictions made at the start of the year,
Scallion made six others in June - most predicted to occur during the rest
of the summer months. Only one occurred, and then only partially, in that
the Mammoth Lakes area did see a gradual rise in the caldera which was
determined to be caused by rising magma levels beneath the ground. So,
while it can be said that vulcanism in the area did "heat up" (as Scallion
said it would) there was no venting seen. The other five: multiple
volcanoes going off "en masse" in the Ring of Fire; a much earlier
hurricane season; quakes in Manhattan, Long Island & Connecticut; major
activity from Salt Lake City to Bakersfield (CA); and 7.0+M quakes in the
U.S., didn't.
GM Scallion's score? Five (That's four "hits" and two "half-hits"
combined) out of nineteen correct. ACCURACY RATING = 26%.
Marian locutionist Annie Kirkwood began the year with a serious message of
wintertime calamity. Pointing out that her predictions came from another
source in this case, not Mary, but not specifically stating whom, many
dealt with harsh cold for the months of January through March. Some, such
as ice storms affecting air travel, fruit crops in Florida being wiped
out, large amounts of snow in France and Germany, the complete snowing in
of Washington DC's airport, and icestorm-caused power outages in Oklahoma
didn't come to pass.
Nor did a predicted flooding on a massive scale in Australia ("like the
U.S., had in '95").
However, others did. In her biggest "hit", mudslides wiped out whole
villages in the Andes. Also, it snowed in Jerusalem - for the first time
in over 6 years. Twice. Epidemics struck in all four South American
countries that Kirkwood predicted. The western U.S. did have a normal to
mild winter.
One other prediction, that the central U.S. would be frozen in "an arctic
blast" between January and February, missed by only a few days, when
record-setting low temperatures struck the region the first two weeks of
March. Also in that region, limited road access did result in some food
shortages - although trucks weren't loaded onto rail carrier, as she had
stated beforehand.
As stated earlier, unlike all others tracked, Annie Kirkwood's predictions
applied to the first quarter of 1998 only. With that in mind, she had
five (four hits, two "half-hits" combined) out of thirteen correct.
ACCURACY RATING = 38%
Popular "psychic detective" and medium Sylvia Browne made a series of
predictions during one of her regular appearances on the syndicated
television talk show, "The Montel Williams Show".
Upon her return on-air in early '99, the following 1998 "misses" weren't
mentioned again:
A 5.4M+/- quake near Seattle, supposedly to occur in January '98. A quake
in Madrid, around 7.8M, in May. A volcanic eruption in Japan last spring,
with released gases affecting (or even killing) thousands. Mike Tyson
biting a police officer, then ending up in lock-up. Daytime maven Rosie
O'Donnell quitting her afternoon slot. More militia groups coming forward,
forming "stand offs". Nation of Islam's Farrakhan moving to the Middle
East. More bad press for "TV evangelists". The Princess Di conspiracy
scenario (which the investigators dismissed at the one-year anniversary
mark last Summer).
However, a number of "hits" were touted. Others, inexplicably, weren't
mentioned, but occurred nonetheless. The most specific was that
hurricanes, especially in August, would batter Mexico and southern
California - hitting Cabo San Lucas. It was hit on September 2nd. Also,
she predicted brief skirmishes with Iraq, but said full war would be
averted. One incident early in the year, and a four-day series of strikes
in late December may have staved off a full war so far. In the early part
of '98, when a war did appear to loom, there were war protests on collage
campuses - including a rather embarassing one during a live telecast by
members of the White House staff. Texas researchers did discover a "youth
enzyme" which, they say, will soon lead to hormonal therapy techniques -
just as Browne predicted. Also, scientists tentatively believe that
clear-cutting of trees may be attributing to global warming.
At least four other predictions were, in part, correct. While "Whitewater"
itself did sink, it was also the impetus for the Ken Starr investigation
-- so it cannot be said that "nothing came of" 'Whitewater'. And while it
might be said that Clinton was exonerated in the Paula Jones case (it was
dismissed, and later settled out-of-court), it wasn't revealed to be a
"smear job" from the start. Browne's prediction of a "big shakeup at '60
Minutes', with new people brought in" after the tv investigators were,
themselves, investigated, turned out to be little more than one errant
producer apologizing for an erroneous on-air story. That one producer was
then replaced. Lastly, a "AIDS vaccine", as such, wasn't approved for human
use, but... a drug that prevents most babies from getting the disease from
their mothers, if given at certain times during pregnancy, was brought
into use.
Sylvia Browne's score? Some nine out of twenty correct. ACCURACY RATING =
45%
Much has been insinuated about the ancestry and past of Robert Ghost Wolf,
interpreter of Native American prophecies, but the fact remains that close
to half of those interpretations were realized during 1998.
Ghost Wolf, which is a nickname given by a medicine man during ceremony
close to ten years ago, bases his predictions on both metaphorical and
literal interpretation.
Some were evidently mis-interpreted, and didn't happen as Ghost Wolf said
they would. The magnetic poles didn't shift by 32 degrees. Nor did "holes"
emanating green mist open in the skies. More deformities of newborns, akin
to those seen in frogs (multiple limbs, missing organs, etc), weren't
reported. A man-caused event of chain-reaction eruptions, Mount Popo
followed by Mount Rainer, never materialized. And major quakes along the
Pacific coast, as many as 3200 a month, never wreaked havoc. Nor was a
prophesied 2+ day solar eclipse seen as of August 22nd. Two more "great
women" on the scale of Princess Di and Mother Teresa didn't follow them
into the afterlife.
However, there were many more reports of both animals stalking/attacking
people on land and thousands of lifeforms dying in the seas. Several "lost
cities" and ancient temples were rediscovered. Remains of an ancient
eskimo village were found in the state of Alaska. Miraculous sightings of
sacred people, like Jesus and Virgin Mary, increased on a global level. In
a number of countries, financial institutions did break down. And the year
was particularly devastating for Japan and Central America, the former
economically and the latter environmentally when Hurricane Mitch crossed
its path.
Lastly, while there were numerous crop failures - as Ghost Wolf predicted
- "supermarket prices" didn't rise 60-80%, with most increases in the
15-25% range.
Robert Ghost Wolf's score? Some eight out of seventeen correct. ACCURACY
RATING = 47%
Lastly, there is Peter Petrisko. Editor of online digest "Earth-Changes
Weekly", prophecy tracker, and, as it turns out, a pretty good guesser.
The method of divination was loosely based on what would eventually become
known as "scientific prophecy", wherein two or more past events are
combined in order to determine a probable - but different - third, and
future, occurrence. That, and being well-read when it came to current (and
recently past) events.
As was predicted, there was a sharp increase in the number of upper
respiratory infections and severe asthma cases in '98. Due mostly to the
effects of El Nino, but also possibly to "global warming". A number of
major U.S. cities - from Miami, to Chicago and the LA basin - had extended
power blackouts. A large number of fires (brush- and forest-) during the
summer months, though, was probably the biggest "hit". At the start of the
year, panic over a possible "bird flu" epidemic grew, but as predicted it
never materialized. As reported by MUFON, a UFO (a "plasma UFO") appeared
near JFK Airport which is, mostly certainly, in a major U.S. city by the
east coast. Massive flooding occurred in a number of Midwest states, from
Wisconsin to Kansas. Also, another animal-to-human viral transmission,
this time on the African continent, occurred in Kenya and Somalia when a
speculated new "super-strain" of anthrax jumped the species barrier. Frank
Sinatra died. Two major disease outbreaks, one a traditional "outbreak"
and the other a cancer outbreak caused by poisoned water consumption,
occurred in Southwest Asia in one of four countries specifically named. A
major quake, 7.7M, hit Japan. A volcanic eruption occurred off the coast
of the US Pacific Northwest. And an informal survey at the start of '99
showed that bomb shelter (underground shelter) sales in the U.S. did, in
fact, increase by as much as 50%.
As with others, some events didn't come to pass. At year's end, Texas
governor George W. Bush had yet to announce a run for the presidency. The
Pope remained in power. The New York Knicks weren't triumphant in the NBA
playoffs. A cult suicide in Europe didn't happen, thanks to quick-acting
police in Spain. Another "teen idol" didn't succumb to drugs, nor was
another member of the British royal family in a major accident. The U.S.
government and a survivalist/militia group hadn't come to blows, nor was a
Russian "nuclear suitcase" used in a terrorist attempt unsuccessfully.
Peter Petrisko's score? Some twelve out of twenty correct. ACCURACY
RATING = 60%
So, in conclusion, the answer to the question, "Can somebody with no
developed psychic abilities, nor any training in divination methods,
out-predict the prognosticators?", is, apparently, a resounding "Yes!"
Now who could've predicted *that*?
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
A full listing of "hits/misses" RAW DATA is collected and displayed in an
FTP file (along with this article) at:
ftp://ftp.primenet.com/users/p/ptp/prediction98.hits
Additionally, both raw data & this article will be available on the
following websites AFTER Wednesday, 1/27/99:
http://www.m-m.org/jz/98hitsmisses.html
http://www.SpiritNexus.com/hits.htm
+--------------------------------------------------------------+
| UFOMIND MAILING LIST |
| Supporting the World's Largest Paranormal Website |
| www.ufomind.com Moderator: Glenn Campbell |
| |
| Archived at: http://www.ufomind.com/misc/ |
| Submissions to: ufomind@lists.best.com |
| "unsubscribe" (in body) to: ufomind-request@lists.best.com |
+--------------------------------------------------------------+
RELEVANCE OF THIS MESSAGE: Skepticism
Index: Peter Petrisko (#8)
Created: Jan 29, 1999