PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2ND-HALF OF 1998
AND A FEW BEYOND THAT...Excerpted from Sean David Morton's June 23, 1998,
appearance on Art Bell's "Coast to Coast AM" radio show;
[HITS/MISSES commentary] added in mid-December 98...
- "You're going to see very substantial food shortages in the U.S., lasting all the way through the year 2000."
[#1 -- YET TO OCCUR.]
- "In northern California, around the Mount Shasta area, a lot of fires in August. Another big series of fires. We're also going to have very substantial fires in the Malibu area. This is coming up around October. [And] right around a ring of Los Angeles County, they're going to be fires. They're going to hit Laguna Beach, they're going to hit just north of San Diego... [and] some very severe fires in Ventura. This is going to happen in September and October."
[#2 -- MISS. No "a lot of fires" in August in area predicted. Some wildfires in September occurred in Riverside county. And while October is traditionally known as the start of the southern CA fire season, the activity seen this October was also centered in neighboring Riverside county, some 60+ miles east of Los Angeles and 100+ miles N/NE of Laguna Beach, San Diego, etc. (Source: AP, Reuters)]
- "[In Alaska], a big fire west of Anchorage... some near Stony River, McGrath, but a lot of fire activity up in Alaska."
[#3 -- MISS. In the Carla Lake Fire (near Delta Junction in east AK), 60,000+ acres burned in late June/early July but no reported activity near Stony River/McGrath. However, compared to 97, there wasn't "a lot of fire activity up in Alaska." 328 fires total by mid-summer, versus 554 during the same period last year. 127,000+ acres burned by mid-July versus 967,000+ for same period in 97. (Source: National Interagency Fire Center, NIFC)]
- "There's also going to be some fires in the Reno (NV) area -- west of Reno northwest of Lake Tahoe."
[#4 -- MISS. Wildfires blackened northeastern NV, near the border with Idaho. Reno and Tahoe are across the state in west NV near CA border.]
- "Major, major fires in Colorado, all the way through July and lasting all the way through August."
[#5 -- HIT. Quite a few wildfires recorded in CO, many caused by lightning strikes and burning hundreds to a couple thousand acres. (AP, NIFC)]
- "I'm seeing Cheyenne, Wyoming, and Fort Collins in the northern-central part of Colorado, its sort of like a ring, but I'm seeing some very substantial earthquake activity. We're looking at, probably, a 5.5 between July 5 and July 20."
[#6 -- MISS.]
- "Then, the quake we're looking at happens just on the other side of Los Angeles [The other side, compared to where the predicted fires are to be -- Editor] and it's pretty substantial, between a 5.5 and 6.0... You're going to hear a lot about it because I think it's going to affect the [movie] studios. We're looking at late December 1998 or January 1999 for that to happen."
[#7 -- YET TO OCCUR.]
- "In August, from the 5th to the 30th, there's going to be a whole series of quakes in Pennsylvania... outside of Scranton, but it looks like Pennsylvania and New York. It's at the top of that mountain range running up into Pennsylvania where there's going to be a series of quakes. Not huge but enough to spook some people in New York."
[#8 -- MISS. A single quake, 5.2 magnitude, hit NE of the Appalachian mountains in Pennsylvania on September 25. Nonetheless, Morton went on "Coast to Coast AM" in early October and declared this prediction a hit anyway. He stated then (in October) that the original prediction was for a quake in September but the transcript does NOT bear that out. It confirms the original August dateline as listed above.]
- "Another major, major thing... and I have to say this for the people in Texas, [in] late September and October... massive hurricanes. Hurricanes that are going to hit the underbelly of the Gulf, between magnitudes 3 and 4. Houston is going to have some major flooding in September and these hurricanes are just going to pound the bottom half of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi."
[#9 -- PARTIAL HIT. Tropical storm (TS) Frances floods TX and LA and "creates a virtual moat around Houston" on September 11. Tropical storm Hermine brings rain to the region a week later. Georges, a TS by this time, also floods Mississippi and LA. on September 27. So, while the area Morton predicted to be hit was, in fact, deluged, all were TS (or downgraded to TS status by the time they hit) and not Mag-3 or Mag-4 hurricanes. (Source: Earth-Changes Weekly, AP, Reuters)]
- "The hurricane season, this year, is going to be terrifying and its going to hit the entire eastern Seaboard. It's NOT going to be in July or August, it's going to start in late September and October.... It's going to pincher the entire eastern part of the U.S.... hitting as far north as Pennsylvania and New York and moving all the way down through North and South Carolina and down into Georgia."
[#10 -- MISS. Season started in mid-July. Centered in Caribbean, Central America, and some Gulf-of-Mexico activity. Eastern seaboard mostly unaffected, especially north of the Carolinas. (Source: Earth-Changes Weekly, AP, Reuters)]
- "The Market is going to readjust. It's going to slide down [to] around 8000 or so, adjusting itself by almost 1000 points through July. It's going to go back up in August. I think it's going to break 10,000 by mid-August... [Morton later contradicted this a bit, saying it will break 10,000 "toward the end of August and September." -- ED.] And then the third week of October, specifically October 16, watch for that as being sort of a "Black Friday," the crux point of the beginning of the downward trend of the Market. Now, it's NOT going to be "the crash." "THE Crash" of the Market is going to come sometime in May, 2000, or the spring of 2000, as being the really substantial collapse of the Market, bringing along the collapse of these various banking systems and structures..."
[#11 -- MISS. The stock market dropped some 600+ points by July but not nearly 1000. It didn't break 10,000 and, in fact, dropped an incredible 510 points on August 31 alone. No black friday. (Source: AP)]
TOTAL PREDICTIONS: 11
PREDICTIONS STILL IN THE FUTURE: 2ACCURACY RATE: 17 PERCENTPREDICTIONS CURRENTLY IN THE PAST: 9
NUMBER OF HITS: 1 1/2 (1 hit, 1 partial hit)NUMBER OF MISSES: 7