Jehovah's Witnesses in Scandinavia: The 1990sA short analysis of Jehovah's Witnesses statistics of Denmark, Norway and Sweden in the last decade of the 20th centuryKristian Brandtner (k_brandtner@hotmail.com), December 1999 Update (November 2001): I have received a few inquiries regarding the statistics of the service years 2000 and 2001. I will probably not update this page to include those, so you may want to check the references at the end of this document for more up-to-date information. However, recent reports indicate that the trends described in this document are still unbroken for the service years 2000 and 2001, with decrease in both publisher and baptism count.
|
NotesDataAll data are taken directly from the Watchtower organization's official publications without any modification [1].BackgroundIt is assumed that the reader is familiar with some of the language, concepts and basic doctrine of Jehovah's Witnesses. Extensive discussion of these topics can be found in the organization's own literature, and in texts such as [2] and [3].AnalysisGeneralToday (1999), active Jehovah's Witnesses represent about 0.25% of Scandinavian population (approx. 47000 persons are counted as publishers). Using memorial attendance figures, the total number of Watchtower adherents can be estimated to about 76000 persons, representing 0.4% of Scandinavia's population.As can be seen in Fig. 1 and 2, the number of publishers has been practically stagnating through the past decade.
Fading Public InterestThe number of "bible studies" (which are the first major step of the conversion process) has fallen considerably. This may indicate declining public interest in the group.
Memorial attendance can be seen as a composite of active members, inactive but adherent members, and interested persons (i.e. potential converts). This figure has been mostly stagnating.
Baptism is the final step in becoming a member of the group. This figure has decreased massively during the past decade, indicating that fewer and fewer people decide to formally join Jehovah's Witnesses.
Declining ActivityPreaching (i.e. recruiting) is an integral part in the life of active group members. Its importance is regularly stressed by Watchtower leadership. The number of preaching hours per publisher has been decreasing since 1990, possibly indicating a weakening of motivation of group members.
Increasing Exit RateThe available data do not contain statistics about the number of members leaving the group. However, it is possible to estimate the number of publishers who irregularly become inactive ("exit rate") by assuming the following: a constant number of publishers become inactive because of old age or death (roughly 1%). Newly baptized persons usually have already been publishers for a few months. Therefore, subtracting 1% for death and adding the number of baptized persons should give the number of publishers in the following year. The difference between this prediction and the actual figures is an estimate of the number of people who become inactive for other reasons, such as expulsion or voluntary disassociation. While the absolute accuracy of this estimate is unclear because we are unable to determine the number of unbaptized publishers, it is definitely a usable trend indicator.In the years 1990-1999, an estimated number of 9300 persons have irregularly become inactive (i.e., excluding mortality). As can be seen in the following diagram, exit rate has grown to become higher than baptism rate in the last years. In other words, more people are leaving the group's active membership than new members are joining. This effect has also been acknowledged by the Watchtower Society in a recent article [4].
An notable effect of this development is that while the number of publishers has been more or less stagnating, the number of ex-Witnesses has been growing steadily. DiscussionTrendsThe above diagrams illustrate that the organization has been experiencing a negative decade as regards membership statistics. Considerable decreases in the number of new converts and the number of persons indicating interest by attending a "bible study" suggest that the number of active Witnesses will continue to slowly decline in the coming years. An interesting observation is that this development goes hand in hand with a significant decrease in preaching activity - it seems that Jehovah's Witnesses themselves have become less zealous in recruiting new members. However, the data do not suggest that this is the only or even a principal cause of the observed decline. A simple causal relationship of the sort "less preaching leads to less baptism" is not apparent. The author assumes that a number of factors are affecting the attitudes of members and non-members alike.Possible CausesExtensive research on the causes of the observed development is beyond the scope of this article. However, some possible contributing factors are listed below.Focus on the NegativeJehovah's Witnesses are frequently referred to as an "apocalyptic" group because of their focus on eschatological passages of the Bible. A central belief of JWs is that the year 1914 marks the beginning of the "last days", according to their interpretation of certain Bible texts (this interpretation also lays the foundation for the group leadership's claim of being exclusively chosen as God's "visible organization on Earth") [5]. An alleged increase of diseases, natural disasters, famines, revolutions, wars and similar events is seen as proof for this interpretation. Watchtower publications (Awake!, The Watchtower) regularly mention such negative events (see also [6] for a general discussion of this approach). It seems reasonable that this argumentation line finds the most fertile ground in poor, unstable, war-torn lands - unlike stable, wealthy Scandinavia. The picture of an increasingly insecure and dangerous world does not coincide at all with the experiences of most Scandinavians, especially the younger generations (see [7],[8]).Weakening Monopoly on InformationThe Internet is offering relatively easy ways to publish information available to millions of other people. That way, critical information about the group becomes very easily accessible to current and potential members. A vast amount of material about the Witnesses is available on the World Wide Web, such as critical examination of history and doctrine, testimony and biographies of former members, open and anonymous discussion forums, support groups for former members and the like. This is in sharp contrast to the highly centralized, top-down, one-way communication offered to members by their organization.Growing Number of ex-WitnessesWhile the number of active Witnesses has changed only marginally, the number of ex-Witnesses has been growing steadily. A significant portion of these persons are critical of the group. Some are actively opposing it by publishing critical material, personal testimony etc. This, in connection with the above mentioned Internet, may be one of the major causes for the group's decline. The JW policy of "shunning" (i.e. social isolation) of ex-members and of limiting social contact to other "unbelievers" (close relationships to non-Witnesses are strongly discouraged) is probably most effective when a potential drop-out has to fear losing all current friends and family. Knowing a number of people already "on the outside" may ease a pending decision to leave.Growing Dissent Inside the OrganizationA number of Internet (WWW) sites are run by active Jehovah's Witnesses who want to remain within the group, but try to initiate reform of various doctrinal points. Examples include the "Associated Jehovah's Witnesses for Reform on Blood" (AJWRB, [11]) and the discussion site "Hourglass 2 Outpost" (H2O, [12]). It is hard to estimate the actual influence of such groups or individuals. However, these initiatives may weaken the coherence and consistence of the public image of Jehovah's Witnesses, who are generally seen as a very compact and homogenous group.Not Just ScandinaviaIt should be noted that the observed trend is not unique to the Scandinavian countries. In fact, a brief look at world-wide statistics shows that similar negative developments can be observed in many other well-developed areas such as almost all countries of Europe, parts of Asia, Australia, Canada, and recently the United States. Significant growth appears to occur mostly in parts of South America, Africa, parts of Asia and ex-Soviet-Union countries. World-wide membership growth has been slowing down considerably in the past decade. [1][9]Suggestions for additional researchAn analysis of broader scope (entire continents or the world) may give some insight on the processes behind the numbers. A comparison with other, similar groups such as the Church of the Latter Day Saints ("Mormons"), Adventists or the Pentecostal Churches could also be worthwhile: these groups seem to be more successful today in gaining new followers than Jehovah's Witnesses.ReferencesNote: Works published by the Watchtower Bible & Tract Society are available through the organization's branch offices or local congregations.
[1] "Service Year Report", in The Watchtower (periodical, Jan. 1st issues 1990-2000), New York: Watchtower Bible & Tract Society
Internet[9] Statistics of Jehovah's Witnesses (http://www.jwic.com/stat.htm)[10] Jehovah's Witnesses Official Web Site (http://www.watchtower.org) [11] Associated Jehovah's Witnesses for Reform on Blood (http://www.ajwrb.org) [12] Hourglass 2 Outpost (link broken, new location unknown. A somewhat similar site can be found at www.jehovahs-witness.com as of November 2001) |
