When the United States and its allies attacked Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 1991, Saudi Arabia was the launching pad. Hundreds of thousands of foreign troops encamped on Saudi soil, and hundreds of warplanes took off from its bases.
Things are different this time. If the United States carries through on its threat to bomb Iraq in the next few weeks, it will be forced to launch its planes from Kuwait, Bahrain, aircraft carriers and Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Why is Saudi Arabia so reluctant to support its long-time
friend in an attack on its bitter enemy? Those who study the
region give several reasons:
--Because it fears Mr. Hussein's retaliation.
Most experts doubt the Americans will be able to destroy all Mr. Hussein's chemical and biological weapons in the proposed attack. So the Iraqi leader might well turn his weapons on Saudi Arabia.
Dan Goure, an analyst at Washington's Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said it is unfair to
ask the Saudis to support an attack that would leave Mr.
Hussein still armed, dangerous and in power.
--Because it fears moving too close to the United States.
Before the Persian Gulf war in 1991, Saudi Arabia was careful
to balance its close Washington relationship with Arab
friendships, even courting radical countries such as Syria. The
war shifted the balance to the American relationship, and Saudis
want to shift it back.
--Because it fears its own people.
An attack that killed or injured Iraqi civilians could create
sympathy for Iraq. If Saudi Arabia were implicated in the
attack, that sympathy could turn into opposition to the Saudi
monarchy. "An Arab country cannot be associated with foreign
attacks that hurt Arab people," said Kamran Karadaghi, a
columnist for the London-based newspaper Al Hayat.
--Because it fears terrorism.
Saudi Arabia has suffered at least two serious terrorist
attacks in recent years, both aimed at the foreign military
presence in the country. The worst, against a military housing
complex near Dhahran in 1996, killed 19 U.S. military personnel
and wounded 400 others.
--Because it fears Western influence.
Saudi Arabia is a conservative, Islamic country that forbids
women to drive cars. Saudi leaders felt foreign soldiers who
swarmed over the country during the Persian Gulf war--some of
them women driving cars and wearing T-shirts--set a bad example.
--Because it fears Iran.
Conservative, Arab and mainly Sunni Muslim Saudi Arabia has been at odds for years with radical, Persian, mostly Shia Muslim Iran. Saudi leaders fear that if the attack on Iraq succeeded, Iran would take advantage of Iraq's weakness to subvert Saudi Arabia, possibly by infiltrating the country's Shia minority of about 15 per cent.
Despite all these fears, experts caution that Saudi leaders have no sympathy for Mr. Hussein. They may still let the U.S. use Saudi air bases for support and communication aircraft.
Saudi officials indicated earlier this month if diplomacy fails and the U.S. bombs Iraq, the fault "would lie exclusively on the Iraqi regime."
Joseph Kotinger, an Israeli Middle East scholar who is
a visiting professor at Washington's Georgetown University, said
that "it's not that the Saudis want the U.S. to step aside
altogether. They would like to see the Americans do a hatchet
job on Iraq. It's just that they can't afford to be officially
on the U.S. side."
(text of article from February 13, 1998 Globe and
Mail)