This is generally in response to the article by Ahmad Rashid below of the Far Eastern Economic Review.
The situation in afghanistan while being of concern to its neighbours to some extent should not really concern the USA , india and russia which are not neighbours and have relatively no influence on the Taliban or afghanistan in any real sense. The USA should not be so naive to think that all terrorism is directed or even controlled by Ossama Ben Laden. Anti USA forces exist in all parts of the world and even inside the USA.Countries like the USA, india and russia only have the ability to continue to keep it unstable which is really a very cheap way to garner influence. As for US-Indian cooperation on
the matter there is little that they can accomplish. The CIS states bordering afghanistan though are genuinly concerned parties and should make it clear to the taliban that they will not like or tolerate intrusion into their territories. However the CIS states should not contribute to increased destability in afghanistan and should use their influences on the northern commanders to end the fighting.
Winter has already arrived and that should bring a relative lull in teh fighting or skirmishing between the taliban and the northern commanders. However the taliban have got the better of the recent exchanges and the northern commanders should realize that it is time that they reach a solution with the taliban otherwise a situation of total defeat might confront them if they continue to fight
The Taliban are basically a fighting force which after gaining control of afghanistan are implementing a rough islamic based system which is generally very successful in controlling the fragmented and trench fighting mentality that exists amongst the tribal natured afghans.The taliban are basically and intrinsically afghan. The reports of pakistanis and arabs fighting alongside the students from kandahar are greatly exxagerated.Most of the arabs and pakistanis have drifted away after the russians left.The taliban rose from a religious school based in kandahar to conquer most of afghanistan. In most
cases they got the cooperation of the local populace and even the fighters of opposing groups. They slowly and steadily brought peace to most of afghanistan. The people preferred the taliban after the warlords that fought russia could not agree to a stable govt. The taliban were therefore very welcome to the areas that they took over and brought peace to. The taliban
had one advantage to the other groups as they came from rural religious students and were therefore not influenced by the former aristocracy or the tribal chieftains. That gave them more influence with the ordinary afghans.
It is in that context that the taliban must be supported by the world. There religious convictions and the system that they implement are an internal matter. At most it concerns their citizens
Recently there have been signs that the world has decided to engage afghanistan and try to help solve some aspects of teh conflict there without having to physically fight. The USA actually wants to get ossama in exchange for some reconstruction aid while the afghans are willing to hold an ossama trial by islamic judges
The world hasto realize that no country can achieve stability with multiple controls on govts and systems.Attempt at foreign controls create even further instability. Obviously the fighting between the taliban and the northern commanders can be ended thru negotiations. However that can be achieved only in the context of setting up one system of govt. The allowance
of open conflicts between power groups have to be ended by creating one military and civilian structure. The cooperation in that context can only occur under the concept of one afghanistan and one govt.
The UN is moving in the right direction in trying to settle the conflict thru talks. However they too try to change the attitudes especially religious attitudes which has caused more problems to them than other aspects of the conflict.
The USA too has recently talked to the taliban on the topic of ossama and that could be welcome news to the taliban. The USA too should learn to talk rather than browbeat and help rather than be the protector of the aggressors as they are in the israel-palestinian conflict
Countries such as iran and india should also stop trying to change the govts in afghanistan because of their religion and sect. If such countries and also some in the CIS stop supporting a faction in the war than the conflict would have ended by now and some sort of cooperative govt system would have emerged which would have given representation to afghanistans different
areas
As far as pakistan is concerned they have a much closer relationship with the taliban than they have had with any other previous govt in afghanistan. However many political groups here including the army/interior ministry and influential groups in nwfp are frightened of the taliban who can influence politics in pakistan. While pakistan prefers the taliban in afghanistan they
hesitate and find it difficult to accept such a system in pakistan. Many on the religious right would be happy if they could mount such a conquest in pakistan but here there are many opposing forces for such a scenario including rival religious and political groups as well as teh military and the beaurocracy
Ikram Ul haq
Ahmed Rashid/DUSHANBE, TAJIKISTAN
FEER Issue cover-dated October 19, 2000
AS TALIBAN FORCES began their latest offensive in August, rival Afghan commander Ahmad Shah Masud moved his wife and children from the relative safety of Dushanbe, Tajikistan, to a base inside his divided country. Masud says he wanted to reassure his Northern Alliance troops that he wouldn't abandon them in their fight against the Kabul regime. But even with Masud around, they had cause to worry. On September 5, the Taliban captured the alliance's political capital, Taloqan. Since then, backed by a multinational force of Islamic militants, the Taliban have advanced further into the northeast. They now control 95% of Afghanistan.
If Masud is defeated, Central Asia, China and Russia will lose their last buffer against the Islamic-fundamentalist Taliban. And with 25,000 Russian troops and border guards on the 1,500-kilometre Tajik-Afghan frontier, a Masud withdrawal into Tajikistan will pit Moscow and Dushanbe directly against the Taliban.
The human cost will also be high. According to Western relief officials, 90,000 Afghans who have fled the Taliban advance are already camped in mountains, waiting to enter Tajikistan. Refugee numbers could swell to half a million if the Taliban prevail. "With the Taliban blockading the south and the Tajik border closed, there is a massive humanitarian tragedy unfolding, and winter snows are just weeks away," says a French aid worker in Dushanbe.
In short, the West and all of Afghani-stan's neighbours now face the cold reality of how to deal with the Taliban. So far, international efforts to bring peace to Afghanistan have been "grossly inadequate and half-hearted," according to a European ambassador in Islamabad, capital of Pakistan. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned the Security Council on September 25 of "the danger of further spread of the conflict" and "the need for a comprehensive, rather than a piecemeal, approach to the Afghan crisis."
The major powers have stepped up military aid to the Central Asian republics to help them block the spread of war from Afghanistan and the rise of Taliban-supported Islamic militancy in their own countries, most notably the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Uzbek President Islam Karimov has accepted Chinese and American military aid, but has so far refused to accept Russian troops.
"The fighting in Afghanistan is a threat to security in the whole region," Gen. Tommy Franks, commander in chief of the U.S. Central Command, said in Tashkent on September 27, while pledging new aid to Uzbekistan.
But the competition between Moscow, Washington and Beijing to secure exclusive security relationships with Central Asian states is polarizing rather than stabilizing the region. "A much wider settlement is needed, with cooperation rather than competition between the big powers," says the European ambassador.
Even an Afghan ceasefire is unlikely to bring peace to Central Asia. The Taliban's northeast front-line force of 15,000 includes students from Pakistan, which backs the Kabul regime, Arabs loyal to wanted Saudi terrorist Osama bin Laden, Uzbek rebels, Filipinos, Bangladeshis, Kashmiris, Chechens and Uighurs from China's Xinjiang region. The fear is that once they are done fighting in Afghanistan, they will take their battles home.
Both the Northern Alliance and the Taliban are keen to make the most of the international nature of the conflict. "The resistance needs the support of the international community to stop the Pakistani intervention," Masud told the REVIEW in Dushanbe, in his first interview since the current fighting began in July. Masud receives support from Russia, Iran, India and some Central Asian states. He paid a surprise visit to Iran on October 6, meeting exiled Afghan leaders who pledged to open new fronts against the Taliban in the north and west of Afghanistan. Iran is expected to fly in thousands of Iran-based Afghan soldiers to bolster Masud's 7,000-8,000-man force in Badakhshan, the last Afghan province under his control. (Masud also controls a swath of territory north of Kabul, his home base in the Panjshir Valley and territory in central Afghanistan. But all these forces could be cut off if Badakhshan falls.)
The Taliban, too, are seeking international support, but their offensive has been diplomatic. In an effort to win international recognition, they have sent delegations to the UN in New York, to Washington and to Paris. (French diplomats say that contrary to press reports, Paris hasn't changed its policy, and has taken no steps toward recognizing the Taliban.)
Taliban leader Mullah Omar has offered an amnesty to Masud and tried to reassure the Central Asian states that his regime has no territorial ambitions beyond Afghanistan. But even if the Taliban defeated Masud and declared peace, it's unlikely they will gain recognition any time soon.
The United States has repeatedly refused to allow Afghanistan's seat in the UN to go to the Taliban, the primary obstacle being Kabul's insistence on sheltering bin Laden. If Taliban leaders wish to show they intend to deal with the rest of the world, they will have to surrender bin Laden to the U.S., extradite the many Islamic militants who have sanctuary in Afghanistan, halt opium production and stop human-rights abuses, especially against Afghan women.
Pakistan has vehemently denied giving military assistance to the Taliban, but the country's leader, Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf, has said its support for Kabul is in Pakistan's "national interest." Islamabad believes a pliant regime in Afghanistan will give it "strategic depth" in any future war with India, and that victory for Kabul will force the international community to recognize the Taliban government, with Islamabad acting as broker. That may be wishful thinking. Iran, Russian and the Central Asian states are pursuing a two-track policy of backing Masud but opening a dialogue with the Taliban. The U.S. talks to both sides but militarily backs neither.
Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a special envoy to meet Pakistani leader Musharraf in the last week of September. Musharraf promised to try to prevent Chechen and Uzbek militants from entering Pakistan, but remained noncommittal on stopping the Taliban advance.
For its part, Washington in late September demonstrated its pique with Islamabad by setting up a working group on the Afghan crisis with New Delhi; Pakistan has desperately tried to keep India out of what it considers its area of influence. Putin's recent visit to New Delhi was also aimed in part at cementing ties to counter the threat of the Taliban. "We believe the centre of international terrorism has largely shifted to Afghanistan," the Russian president said in India on October 4, echoing remarks earlier this year by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. Furthermore, U.S. Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas Pickering is expected to visit Moscow soon to coordinate U.S.-Russian policy toward the Taliban. This could include further UN Security Council sanctions to add to those imposed last November. The council is expected to decide on the issue on November 1, UN officials say.
In the meantime, the fighting continues. Masud's back is to the massive Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges of Badakhshan. The Taliban aim to take the province by the end of October, before winter snows set in. But Masud says that, contrary to media reports, his supply lines from Tajikistan to Badakhshan remain open. He has been fighting for control of Afghanistan for 25 years and is unlikely to surrender. "We are very, very confident we will not withdraw into Tajikistan," he says. Instead, his wife and children remain in Afghanistan, and his Northern Alliance is likely to dig in, then counterattack once winter arrives.
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