C. Advanced Technologies Which Would Enhance Military Capabilities
1. Information and Communication Developments
a. Automated Command and Control and Information System Technologies
China has an extensive network of hardened, underground shelters and command and control facilities for both its military and civilian leadership. Fear of a possible war with the former Soviet Union in the 1960s and 1970s prompted Beijing to expend considerable resources constructing national level command posts, civil defense facilities and associated communications. These facilities are intended to ensure survival of China's leadership and provide a refuge from which it can maintain control over the country's military forces. Both civil and military communications networks support these facilities. The military communications network probably is separate from the civil telecommunications network, although it is possible that the two could be linked, a capability the PLA would be expected to exploit in time of crisis. China’s military national level command and control communications are carried over multiple transmission systems in order to create a military communications system which is survivable, secure, flexible, mobile and less vulnerable to exploitation, destruction or electronic attack. China's communications networks are capable of supporting PLA military operations within China's borders; while they could be degraded, they could not be denied completely.
C4I modernization and automation has been a top Chinese priority since at least 1979. This effort has produced a command automation data network capable of rapidly passing operational orders down the chain of command and moving information to national and theater level decision makers. However, China's C4I infrastructure, including the command automation data network portions, is not capable of controlling or directing military forces in a sophisticated, western style joint operating environment. The command automation data network is capable of supporting PLA peacetime operations within China's borders. The command automation data network also can support limited preplanned conventional attack options along China's periphery. China still lags far behind western standards for controlling complex joint operations and lacks the robust C4I architecture required to meet the demands of the modern battlefield.
In October 1998, the Beijing Military Region (MR) reportedly used a "military information superhighway" for the first time at a joint defense warfare drill. This "military information superhighway" was described as an information network subsystem of the "campaign training (command) automation system" developed by the Beijing MR. The system processed and transmitted graphics, characters, and audio data, modernizing the traditional Chinese methods of drill and command. At the MR's operations center, commands from the MR commander and political commissar and military situation maps were relayed to and from the subordinate Group Armies’ (GA) operational facilities hundreds of kilometers away.
The PLA's Liberation Army Daily reported that Lanzhou MR military leaders made use of video teleconferencing during a fall 1997 command post exercise. The teleconferencing linked participants stationed at distant points throughout the MR. The newspaper also reported that China conducted its first operational level logistics support exercise using a computer network in late 1997. The exercise allegedly involved 150 computers and linked 22 separate divisions for the exercise. The eight-day exercise was described as taking place on an unprecedented scale, connecting units thousands of kilometers apart.
Microwave communications equipment most likely is present at installations belonging to all branches of the PLA. Chinese open sources report that the 2nd Artillery has a new digital microwave communications system to support its missile launches. The 2nd Artillery signal unit reportedly started developing the system around 1995 and it passed acceptance tests a few years later. This new system reportedly provides the 2nd Artillery with all weather and encrypted communication ability.
Cellular telephone service does not yet appear to be a significant element of PLA military communications, although China has shown interest in establishing dedicated military cellular systems for PLA use. However, with the explosive growth of cellular communications in the civilian sector, cellular communications could become a significant element of PLA communications in the future. To date, PLA involvement has been concerned primarily with commercial exploitation of cellular communications.
China’s military communications network continues to be upgraded; however, the bulk of China’s military communications reportedly is processed on communications lines run by the Ministry of Information Industry. Both networks are composed largely of commercial off-the-shelf technology. This technology either is not restricted for sale to China or recently was decontrolled, although Beijing probably has been successful in obtaining some restricted technology to modernize its telecommunications network. Europe, Japan and Israel compete to sell telecommunications technology, as well as related hardware and software, to China.
b. Electronic Warfare Development
The thrust of China's electronic warfare (EW) efforts continues to focus on technology development and design capabilities improvement, accomplished mainly through cooperation with Western companies, through reverse engineering efforts, and through the procurement of foreign systems. The inventory of Chinese EW equipment includes a combination of 1950s-1980s technologies, with only a few select military units receiving the most modern components. China is procuring state-of-the-art technology to improve its intercept, direction finding, and jamming capabilities. In addition to providing extended imagery reconnaissance and surveillance and electronic intelligence (ELINT) collection, Beijing's unmanned aerial vehicle programs probably will yield platforms for improved radio and radar jammers. Additionally, existing earth stations can be modified to interfere with satellite communications. The PLA also is developing an electronic countermeasures (ECM) doctrine and has performed structured training in an ECM environment.
c. Information Operations/Information Warfare
China increasingly is viewing Information Operations/Information Warfare (IO/IW) as a strategic weapon to use outside of traditional operational boundaries. China's IO/IW is in the early stages of research. It currently focuses on understanding IW as a military threat, developing effective countermeasures, and studying offensive employment of IW against foreign economic, logistics, and C4I systems. Driven by the perception that China's information systems are vulnerable, the highest priority has been assigned to defensive IW programs and indigenous information technology development. Some technologies could provide enhanced defensive or offensive capabilities against foreign military and civilian information infrastructure systems. Computer anti-virus solutions, network security, and advanced data communications technologies are a few examples.
Over the last few years, the Communication Command Academy in Wuhan has emerged as one of the major PLA centers in IW research. In December 1998, under the auspices of "Project 95"-All Military Critical Development Projects," the Academy established the PLA’s first IW simulation experiment center. In the same year, the General Staff Department’s Communication Department endorsed two publications on IW for use as the PLA IW textbooks. A task force of 20 PLA IW theorists and instructors from the Academy wrote the books: Command and Control in Information Warfare and Technology in Information Warfare. They set forth the definition of IW, its areas of study, and the application of information technology in combat. The Academy offers 31 command and control related cross-disciplinary courses with emphasis on IW at the core of undergraduate and graduate training. The cross-disciplinary course "Command and Control of Information Warfare" indicates the PLA’s theoretical research on IW is fairly mature; however, the PLA has not yet developed a coordinated and integrated IW doctrine to match its maturing theory.
In the area of computer network attack (CNA), China appears interested in researching methods to insert computer viruses into foreign networks as part of its overall IO strategy. Beijing reportedly has adequate hardware and software tools and possesses a strong and growing understanding of the technologies involved. However, China's strategic IO use of advanced information technologies in the short- to mid-term likely will lack depth and sophistication; however, as it develops more expertise in defending its own networks against enemy attack, it is likely to step up attempts to penetrate foreign information systems.
Open source articles claim that the PLA has incorporated IO/IW-related scenarios and CNA activities into operational exercises. Efforts reportedly have focused on increasing the PLA's proficiency in defensive measures, especially against computer viruses. In Shenyang and Lanzhou MRs, open source reports describe scenarios where a GA HQ successfully defended its command and control network from a virus attack. In a separate tactical level exercise, another scenario called for hackers to intrude into the same GA command and control network for exploitation and destruction.
China has the capability to penetrate poorly protected US computer systems and could potentially use CNA to attack specific US civilian and military infrastructures. This anti-access strategy is centered on targeting operational centers of gravity, including C4I centers, airbases, and aircraft carrier battle groups located around the periphery of China.
2. Space Development
China has the capability to launch military photoreconnaissance satellites; however, the technology employed is outdated by Western standards. Beijing does not possess a real-time photoreconnaissance capability, but eventually may deploy advanced imagery reconnaissance and earth resource systems with military applications. The China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) was launched in October 1999 and the experience gleaned from operating this satellite will support Beijing's efforts to develop improved military reconnaissance satellites. CBERS also will provide some militarily useful data. China also may attempt to deploy a near-real-time electro-optical imaging satellite within the next decade, as well as a high-resolution film-based photoreconnaissance satellite. In the interim, Beijing can be expected to exploit commercial SPOT and LANDSAT imagery. Use of other commercial higher resolution satellite imagery also can be anticipated, as it becomes available.
China already has launched three low-orbit meteorological satellites and a geosynchronous weather satellite. Although Beijing has received some degree of foreign technological assistance in the areas of reconnaissance, surveillance and targeting capabilities, many of its system development efforts appear to have a substantial indigenous component. In the future, however, Beijing could be expected to acquire and incorporate greater amounts of foreign technology and hardware to expedite program development.
China is interested in 400-500 kilogram (kg) satellites and plans an oceanographic research satellite Haiyang 1 (Ocean-1) in this class that is scheduled for launch in 2001. Other missions for satellites of this class that Beijing eventually may field include earth observation, communications, and navigation. China also is developing minisatellites (weighing less than 100 kgs) for missions, which include remote sensing and networks of electro-optical and radar satellites. A joint venture between China's Tsinghua University and Great Britain’s University of Surrey is building the "Tsinghua" system, a constellation of 7 minisatellites with 50-meter (m) resolution remote sensing payloads. The first satellite is scheduled for launch in 2000. Later satellites in the series probably will have improved resolution. In addition, Beijing participates in the Asia-Pacific Small Multi-Mission Satellite Project as part of the Asia-Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications Program, which reportedly includes Iran, Pakistan, Thailand, Mongolia, South Korea, and Bangladesh.
Although China is improving its overall space launch program, there is no evidence that it currently is developing the capability to conduct "launch-on-demand space launch operations," i.e., the capability to use satellites and space launch vehicles in storage to launch within 24 hours of a decision to do so.
Exploitation of space--to include manned space operations--remains a high priority. Although nearly all major aspects of China's manned space program began within the last five years or so, Beijing is still aiming for a possible first manned launch by 2001. While one of the strongest motivations for this program appears to be political prestige, China's manned space efforts could contribute to improved military space systems in the 2010-2020 time frame. In addition to scientific and technical experiments, Chinese astronauts, for instance, could investigate the utility of manned reconnaissance from space.
China is said to be acquiring a variety of foreign technologies, which could be used to develop an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability. Beijing already may have acquired technical assistance which could be applied to the development of laser radars used to track and image satellites and may be seeking an advanced radar system with the capability to track satellites in low earth orbit. It also may be developing jammers, which could be used against Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. In addition, China already may possess the capability to damage, under specific conditions, optical sensors on satellites that are very vulnerable to damage by lasers. Beijing also may have acquired high-energy laser equipment and technical assistance, which probably could be used in the development of ground-based ASAT weapons. Given China's current level of interest in laser technology, Beijing probably could develop a weapon that could destroy satellites in the future. Although specific Chinese programs for laser ASAT have not been identified, press articles indicate an interest in developing this capability and Beijing may be working on appropriate technologies.
China has extensive space-related cooperation programs with many countries. Although most of these projects are described as scientific or civilian in nature, militarily significant technology transfer nonetheless likely occurs in many of them.
According to press reporting, Moscow and Beijing currently have 11 joint space projects underway. These include cooperative manned space activities. The Chinese also have shown strong interest in Western--Canadian and German--radar satellite capabilities, to include a possible purchase of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite systems. China recently signed a contract to launch an Italian-built communications satellite with 28 ku-band transponders in 2001; two earlier contracts appear to involve research into "observation and data detection satellites" that will be built jointly by both countries.
China’s Xian Satellite Control Site and the French national space agency announced a program of cooperation for satellite command and control in February 1999. A December 1998 press report stated that China has signed intergovernmental agreements and memoranda on aerospace cooperation with the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, France, Britain, Russia, Pakistan, India, and Brazil. In addition, Beijing has promoted technical and economic cooperation and exchanges of different types, including jointly developing satellites, with corporations, enterprises, and research institutes in more than 70 countries and areas.
Since 1998, China and the United States have signed three intergovernmental agreements on launching services. Several US satellite-manufacturing companies have signed agreements on commercial satellite launching services, involving a total of some 30 satellites. The satellite "Sinosat"--jointly developed by China, France, and Germany--was launched successfully in 1999. Moreover, in the form of a joint venture, China and Germany have made improvements to the Dongfanghong 3 communications satellite and have worked on a new generation of similar satellites.
According to December 1998 South Korean press reports, South Korea and China are expected to share data and information collected by their respective remote sensing satellites. November 1998 Chinese media reported a jointly funded contract with Holland for a cooperative project to develop and use a new satellite to monitor desertification and crop yields in China. Chinese scientists likewise have been reported studying minisatellite technologies in Great Britain. Chinese and British entities apparently have established a joint venture to build and launch China's first privately built satellite.
China’s aerospace industry also is seeking to integrate GPS and Russian Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) guidance technology into fighters and helicopters. The China Aerospace Corporation displayed a GPS receiver at an exhibition in Beijing in September 1996 and provided brochures advertising both a 12-channel GPS receiver and a 12-channel GPS/GLONASS receiver. One brochure showed a space launch vehicle, suggesting GPS use in missile applications. Information obtained at a more recent air show indicates that all of China's new fighters will incorporate GPS navigation systems. China's military-backed industries also have entered into joint ventures with foreign firms to produce GPS receivers, which may find their way to military weapons. To complement GPS/GLONASS navigation aids, China has been attempting to acquire commercial satellite imagery from various foreign countries. This widely available satellite imagery could be used in conjunction with GPS/GLONASS to develop digital terrain maps for targeting, missile guidance, and planning.
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