III. THE SECURITY SITUATION IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT
A. An overview of China’s strategic and conventional forces, including those forces available for operations against Taiwan.
1. Missile Forces
China developed nuclear weapons and a limited force to deliver them in order to prevent nuclear blackmail and to obtain greater international status and prestige. Its relatively small nuclear forces are intended for retaliation rather than a first strike. Beijing’s objective is nuclear deterrence: to convince potential enemies that enough of China’s strategic weapons would survive an attack to inflict unacceptable damage on the aggressor in a retaliatory strike.
The only Chinese missile system capable of targeting the continental United States is the CSS-4 ICBM. China reportedly has built 18 CSS-4 silos. China also is designing a new generation of solid-fuel, road-mobile ICBMs that will enhance greatly ICBM survivability. The CSS-3 ICBM has the technical range to reach portions of Alaska but is intended primarily for use against targets in Russia and Asia. Two launch configurations exist for the CSS-3: a rollout-to-launch site and an elevate-to-launch silo. The CSS-2 is China’s primary regional missile system. A road-transportable, liquid-fueled IRBM, it can be launched from either permanent launch pads or from portable launch stands. The CSS-5 is China’s first land-based solid-fuel missile. It is a road-mobile missile carried in and launched from a launch canister mounted on a towed transporter-erector-launcher (TEL).
As demonstrated in military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in 1995 and 1996, China views its growing conventionally-armed SRBM force as a potent military and political factor in the Taiwan equation, even though some questions remain as to whether or not these exercises and missile firings advanced Beijing’s objectives. China also reportedly has begun to develop two LACM designs which will increase furtherthe PLA’s capability to strike key regional targets accurately with conventional warheads.
Over the next several years, China’s SRBM force is expected to continue to grow. The PLA currently has one regimental-sized CSS-6 SRBM unit deployed in southeastern China. The CSS-6 is a solid propellent, road mobile missile which can deliver a 500-kg conventional payload to a maximum range of 600 km. This CSS-6 unit may soon be augmented by a CSS-7 SRBM unit and one additional CSS-6 unit. The CSS-7 also is a solid propellant, road-mobile missile with an estimated range of approximately 300 km. An improved, longer range variant may be under development. Within the next several years, both the CSS-6 and the CSS-7 are expected to incorporate satellite-assisted navigation technology to improve their accuracy. In an armed conflict with Taiwan, China's SRBMs likely would target air defense installations, airfields, naval bases, C4I nodes, and logistics facilities.
China also is developing LACMs. These missiles appear to have a relatively high development priority. Chinese research and development of LACMs is being aided by an aggressive effort to acquire foreign cruise missile technology and subsystems, particularly from Russia. The first LACM to enter production probably would be air-launched and could be operational by mid-decade.
2. Air Forces
The PLA Air Force (PLAAF) and the PLA Naval Air Force (PLANAF) combined number over 400,000 personnel, 4,300 tactical fighters, 1,000 bomber and close air support aircraft, and 650 transport aircraft. The vast majority of the fighter fleet is composed of technologically obsolete airframes: about 2,900 are 1950s vintage F-5s and F-6s, with a further 1,000 composed of 1960-70s vintage F-7s. A sizeable--although unknown--percentage of these aircraft are not combat capable. China apparently has no confirmed capability to utilize precision-guided munitions (PGMs). Only the PLANAF’s B-6D bombers and its FB-7 fighter-bombers have a standoff strike capability. China’s ground-based air defense forces reportedly can provide no better than point defense; there is no comprehensive, integrated national air defense network. The PLAAF has only about a dozen heavy lift aircraft and its aerial refueling and airborne early warning programs remain behind schedule.
Nonetheless, China’s air forces are modernizing, albeit slowly. As a result of substantial foreign technological assistance, advanced indigenous fighter programs reportedly have progressed to the prototype testing stages.
The size of China’s air forces should become much smaller over the next two decades: the PLAAF/PLANAF’s fixed-wing fleet could shrink from some 5,300 combat aircraft in 2000 to slightly more than 2,200 aircraft by 2020. Readiness rates, the distances over which China can project air power, and the variety of missions which China’s air forces can perform also can be expected to improve; however, the quality of China’s air defense and C4I technology will continue to lag behind that of advanced Western nations and Russia. Still, development and deployment of a comprehensive integrated air defense system (IADS) by around 2020 is possible.
The incorporation of both aerial refueling and airborne early warning (AEW)/airborne command and control, once achieved later this decade, could constitute a significant force multiplier for China’s air forces, although only for relatively small numbers of aircraft at any one time. Aerial refueling would allow China’s more modern fighters to conduct operations beyond China’s periphery. Real-time situational awareness of this same airspace would be provided by the AEW/airborne command and control platforms which China could begin to phase in over the next half-decade.
At least through 2005, numerous limitations in the PLAAF and PLANAF would make achieving air superiority over the Taiwan Strait exceedingly difficult. During this period, Taipei is expected to maintain a technological edge with respect to the quality of its aircraft vis-à-vis China. Three-quarters of Taiwan’s 400+ fighters are fourth-generation aircraft. The only fourth generation aircraft currently in China’s inventory is the Su-27/ FLANKER. By 2005, PLA fourth-generation fighter aircraft are expected to number about 150 and constitute only about 4% of the fighter force. In addition, while small strides in improving the competency of China’s pilots have been noted in the past five years, professionally they still lag behind their counterparts in Taiwan.
After 2005, however, if projected trends continue, the balance of air power across the Taiwan Strait could begin to shift in China’s favor, assuming no significant, concurrent improvement in Taiwan’s air capabilities. By this time, both China’s aerial refueling and AEW programs will either have reached or be nearing IOC and the number of aerial refueling-capable fighters could number more than 150. China’s active-radar air-to-air missile (AAM) likely will be fielded in the post-2005 timeframe as well, giving its growing inventory of fourth-generation fighters a weapon approaching the AMRAAM’s capability. Uncertainties in funding and production during this period, however, would affect the timing in all these cases.
3. Naval Forces
The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) currently numbers approximately 260,000 personnel, some 60 destroyers and frigates, about 60 diesel and six nuclear submarines, and nearly 50 amphibious landing ships. Several hundred auxiliary and smaller patrol vessels, as well as a naval air arm of over 500, mostly obsolescent, fixed-wing aircraft and some 30 helicopters complement this force. Over the last decade, the PLAN has attempted to streamline and modernize its forces by eliminating large numbers of older ships and replacing them with fewer, more modern units. The number of submarines has declined by about one-half. The size of the major surface combatant fleet has been relatively stable, with older ships slowly being replaced by newer Chinese-built destroyers and frigates. Nearly the PLAN’s entire inventory of U.S.-built, World War II-vintage landing ships have been replaced by similar numbers of domestically produced vessels. Nevertheless, the PLAN continues to lag behind other regional navies, including that of Taiwan, in most technological areas, especially air defense, C4I, and surveillance.
China maintains an overwhelming advantage in submarines over Taiwan and this quantitative advantage will continue for the foreseeable future. Moreover, while the number of boats in service in China is expected to decrease, their overall qualitative capabilities also is expected to increase. China apparently is producing more modern submarines and using submarine-related foreign technology. Although the force is oriented principally toward interdicting surface ships using torpedoes and mines, China is expected to begin arming some its submarines with submerged-launch cruise missiles. The capability of Chinese submarines to conduct ASW operations is expected to improve, particularly in light of the acquisition of Russian-built KILO-class submarines and the greater emphasis reportedly being placed on ASW training. As a result, China’s submarine fleet could constitute a substantial force capable of controlling sea lanes and mining approaches around Taiwan, as well as a growing threat to submarines in the East and South China Seas.
China's fleet of major surface combatants includes about 40 frigates and 20 destroyers. All carry ASCMs, ranging from the antiquated, first-generation CSS-N-1/SCRUBBRUSH to the more advanced C801/SARDINE and C802/SACCADE. Two Russian-built SOVREMENNYY destroyers--both of which are scheduled for delivery in 2000--likely will be equipped with the SS-N-22/ SUNBURN ASCM. While most of the newer surface combatants are being equipped with short-range SAMs, the overwhelming majority of vessels mount no SAM system at all. Despite these limitations, the PLAN's surface fleet is expected to strive to enhance both its readiness and endurance for extended operations. In addition, it can be expected to conduct more realistic training exercises and deploy more advanced anti-ship, air defense missiles and electronic counter measures.
The PLAN's amphibious fleet provides sealift sufficient to transport approximately one infantry division. The PLAN also has hundreds of smaller landing craft, barges, and troop transports, all of which could be used together with fishing boats, trawlers, and civilian merchant ships to augment the naval amphibious fleet. Shortcomings in long-range lift, logistics, and air support, however, will continue to hinder China's ability to project amphibious forces. The PLAN is not expected to improve significantly its limited ability to conduct amphibious operations any time soon. In addition, seasonal weather conditions may at certain times of the year limit the ability for smaller vessels to conduct amphibious operations.
The PLAN’s Marine force is considered one of the PLA's rapid reaction forces. Historically, its primary mission has been to conduct amphibious operations; its secondary mission has been to support ground force units. It currently is capable of performing only regional, battalion-size amphibious operations.
4. Ground Forces
China’s ground forces are comprised of some 40 maneuver divisions and approximately 40 maneuver brigades. Approximately 14 of the divisions are designated "rapid reaction" units: combined arms units capable of deploying by road or rail within China without significant train-up or reserve augmentation. China is continuing the process of reducing the size of its army. The 500,000-man reduction in force underway for the last several years is continuing. It is intended to streamline the force and facilitate funding to equip its "core" infantry, airborne, mechanized and aviation units with more advanced weapons. The army is supported by a large reserve-militia force numbering more than 1.5 million personnel and by the one million men PAP.
Particularly since the 1991 Persian Gulf conflict, the PLA has devoted considerable resources to the development of Special Operations Forces (SOFs). These units apparently are an integral element of ground force modernization and likely have been assigned specific missions or tasks in a variety of Taiwan contingency operations. These missions or tasks could include conducting reconnaissance and surveillance; locating or destroying C4I assets, transport nodes, and logistics depots; capturing or destroying airfields and ports; and destroying air defense facilities.
Only a portion of the PLA’s overall strength could be brought to bear against Taiwan. Forces likely to be involved in an operation directed against the island would include theater ballistic missile units in Nanjing MR; air and ground force units subordinate to the Nanjing and Guangzhou MRs—particularly Nanjing MR’s 1st and 31st GAs--and naval assets subordinate to the East Sea Fleet. Additional air, naval and ground force assets from other MRs/fleets could augment forces deployed opposite Taiwan. Airborne forces, despite limited organic lift, also could play an important role in a Taiwan scenario by seizing airfields for landing follow-on forces and supporting amphibious landings.
B. Capacity for preemptive strikes, including available warning time of PLA military strike operations against Taiwan.
The PLA is acquiring standoff weapons, which could be used in a preemptive strike against Taiwan. These weapons include ASCMs, long-rang LACMs, and SRBMs. New generations of cruise and ballistic missiles will have longer ranges and greater accuracy.
The PLA’s 2nd Artillery has incorporated a new conventional mission with the addition of CSS-6 and CSS-7 SRBMs to its inventory. Within the next several years, the size of China’s SRBM force is expected to grow substantially. The primary focus of this new conventional mission is regarded as a key element in the PLA’s effort to upgrade its capability for high technology warfare in the region and, in particular, with regards to Taiwan. China apparently is working to improve the accuracy and survivability of its SRBMs. If these enhancements are successful, the SRBMs will become formidable, accurate, and elusive deep-strike weapons.
The warning time for missile launches most likely will decrease as China expands its missile force opposite Taiwan, especially is Beijing were to build additional missile facilities closer to the Taiwan Strait, from where the missiles could be launched with little or no warning. In addition, the Chinese are proficient at using camouflage, terrain masking, underground facilities, decoys and other forms of denial and deception to conceal military activity and inhibit timely warning.
C. Estimate of PLA ability to integrate and synchronize theater missile and air strikes, IO, and special operations.
Should China decide to attack Taiwan, Beijing’s goal would be to erode Taipei’s will to fight with sufficient alacrity to avoid escalation of the conflict and potential third party intervention in the hope of forcing a political resolution in Beijing’s favor. Synchronized application of SRBM, LACM, air-launched ASCM, maritime, and SOF assets likely would be a necessary requirement for success. However, while Beijing understands the theoretical aspects of integrating various weapons systems and strike assets, the PLA’s principal obstacles lie in doctrinal and tactical deficiencies. China has no real-time reconnaissance and surveillance capability and its ability to effectively command and control its military forces--particularly in a joint service environment--is practically non-existent. The PLAAF and the PLANAF rarely exercise together. While the PLA and PLAAF reportedly exercise together as do the PLAN and PLANAF, rarely do three or more services exercise jointly. The PLA apparently conducts interservice exercises at the tactical level, but the services are not integrated fully into a cohesive combat force. So-called joint exercises appear to be highly scripted, with little or no free play. Disparate elements train simultaneously and in proximity, but are not controlled at the operational level by a joint commander and staff with interoperable C4I systems and a joint operational plan. There is a paucity of information on how the PLA would integrate IW into a joint operational environment. Apparently only the 2nd Artillery has shown some progress in developing a training regimen which incorporates interaction with other service elements. China is not expected to develop comprehensive joint power projection capabilities for at least the next two decades; as a result, its ability to control a multidimensional battlespace likely will remain limited.
D. Estimate of Taiwan’s ability to sustain air, sea, and ground operations in the face of integrated PLA attack operations.
In the short term (2000-2005), the PLA will have only a limited capability to conduct integrated operations against Taiwan. The PLA conducts interservice exercises at the tactical level, but the services are not fully integrated into a cohesive combat force. This weakness would contribute to Taiwan’s ability to sustain air, sea and ground operations in the face of a PLA attack in the short term.
Maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Strait would be an essential part of any Chinese effort to mount a military operation against Taiwan. China currently has an overwhelming quantitative advantage over Taiwan in military aircraft and is expected to retain that advantage beyond 2005. On the other hand, Taiwan's more modern aircraft will provide it with a qualitative advantage that should be retained at least through that period. PLA EW operations against air defense radars, disruption of command and control networks, and/or large scale conventional SRBM and LACM strikes against airfields and SAM sites could reduce the effectiveness of Taiwan’s air defenses. The overall capability of the TAF would depend on the implementation of sound pilot training, sufficient logistic and maintenance support, and the ability of the TAF to integrate satisfactorily several disparate airframes into a cohesive, operational fighting force.
A PLA amphibious invasion of Taiwan probably would be preceded by a naval blockade, air assaults and missile attacks on Taiwan. Airborne, airmobile, and special operations forces likely would conduct simultaneous attacks to the rear of Taiwan's coastal defenses to seize a port, preferably in close proximity to an airfield. Seizing a beachhead likely would constitute a supporting attack. An airborne envelopment would facilitate amphibious operations by cutting off Taiwan's coastal defenders from supply lines and forcing them to fight in two directions. China likely would seek to suppress Taiwan’s air defenses and establish air superiority over an invasion corridor in the Taiwan Strait. The PLA’s success in establishing and maintaining a foothold on the island would rest on a variety of intangibles to include personnel and equipment attrition rates on both sides of the Strait; the interoperability of PLA forces; and, the ability of China’s logistic system to support adequately optempo operations.
China’s numerical superiority in submarines constitutes a threat to the Taiwan Navy, but Taiwan is acquiring advanced ASW technology that likely will improve its ability to counter PLA submarines operating off the coast of Taiwan. Nonetheless, the Taiwan Navy probably would have an extremely difficult time opposing a naval blockade with its existing resources, which include many obsolescent World War II-era ships. Barring third-party intervention, the China’s quantitative advantage over Taiwan’s Navy in surface and sub-surface assets would probably prove overwhelming over time.
Maintaining air superiority over the Taiwan Strait would be an essential part of any Chinese effort to mount a military operation against Taiwan. China currently has an overwhelming quantitative advantage over Taiwan in military aircraft and is expected to retain that advantage beyond 2005. On the other hand, Taiwan's more modern aircraft will provide it with a qualitative advantage that should be retained at least through that period. PLA EW operations against air defense radars, disruption of command and control networks, and/or large scale conventional SRBM and LACM strikes against airfields and SAM sites could reduce the effectiveness of Taiwan’s air defenses. The overall capability of the TAF would depend on the implementation of sound pilot training, sufficient logistic and maintenance support, and the ability of the TAF to integrate satisfactorily several disparate airframes into a cohesive, operational fighting force.
In the mid-term (2005-2010), the PLA is exepected to field a force that is more capable of conducting integrated operations against Taiwan, but probably would still have significant shortcomings in this area. Regardless of the timing, a successful invasion would exact tremendous losses and require a massive commitment of military and civilian assets. Additionally, China would have to be willing to accept the almost certain political, economic, diplomatic, and military costs that such a course of action would produce.
If current ship-building trends continue into the mid-term, the PLA navy will not possess significantly greater amphibious lift capacity for troop transport. This trend will continue to act as a constraint on a full-scale amphibious invasion., but would not preclude the use of other assets, such as ballistic missiles and submarines, in an attempt to reunify the island by force. China is aware of its weaknesses in lift capacity and is giving greater attention to the role of civilian assets in an amphibious invasion. Recent PLA military exercises that probably incorporated a Taiwan scenario have featured fishing boats and merchant ships in a strong supporting role. The creation of such a reserve, if realized, would improve China’s ability to conduct an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. Beijing reportedly also is stepping up efforts to refit merchant ships to make up for the shortage in naval landing vessels. Weather constraints would affect the timing of any invasion attempt. In addition, mud flats along the western shore of Taiwan would restrict the number of available landing beaches..
In the long term (2010-2020), China’s qualitative edge over Taiwan’s military forces could continue to increase. By 2010 and after, China could gain greater operational experience with many new systems. These systems include advanced air superiority fighters, air- and sea-launched cruise missiles, and naval combatants. The PLA also could improve its ability to conduct combined arms operations, integrating air, land, naval and missile forces to a higher degree than currently observed. Other capabilities, such as aerial refueling, AWACS and AEW operations are expected be more fully developed during this time frame.
The change in the dynamic equilibrium of forces over the long term will depend largely on whether Taiwan is able to meet or exceed developments on the mainland with programs of its own. Its success in deterring potential Chinese aggression will be dependent on its continued acquisition of modern arms, technology and equipment, and its ability to integrate and operate these systems effectively, and its ability to deal with a number ofother systemic problems--primarily the recruitment and retention of technically-qualified personnel and the maintenance of an effective logistics system--lest Taipei once again risk losing its qualitative edge.
E. An assessment of any challenges during the preceding year to the deterrent forces of Taiwan.
Several developments in Chinese military operations or capabilies in 1999 present challenges to Taiwan’s defense. The year was marked by increased PLA air activity in the Taiwan Strait, precipitated in part by Lee Teng-hui’s assertion in July that relations with the mainland were on a "state-to-state" basis. China reportedly deployed additional fighters to an airfield directly opposite Taiwan and increased its air sortie rate over the Taiwan Strait. For the first time, China demonstrated a willingness to employ Su-27 aircraft in the Strait as a show of force.
During the summer, PLA ground, naval, air and strategic rocket forces reportedly conducted exercises that, although scheduled before the onset of tensions, probably were tailored to intimidateTaipei. They apparently included small-scale amphibious exercises on the mainland coast of China north and south of Taiwan. These exercises probably increased readiness in units that would be involved in a Taiwan contingency and sent a signal to Taiwan that Lee’s actions remain unacceptable.
In 1999, the large-scale PLA ground-force reorganization and restructuring continued to equip units in China with more capable weapons, including units deployed opposite Taiwan.
Return to beginning of ejps
Return to beginning of this issue