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A Perplexing Loss of GOP Confidence
by Everett Carll Ladd
Thursday, March 18, 1999
Comments: 68 posts
What the GOP Needs for Christmas: A Big Stick : Claude Marx urges the
GOP to forget Ronald Reagan and remember Teddy Roosevelt.
Jeb Bush: Republicrat in Training?: A new type of GOP is being created
in Florida. Tim Nickens considers.
Republicans and the Minority Vote: Everett Ladd sees reason to hope for
two-party competitiveness among blacks and Hispanics.
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The next national election is likely to get special attention. Each of
the biennial votes matters, of course, and more so when there is a
presidential race. But even greater weight is likely to be given to the
outcome of Election 2000; it will be seen as determining who will lead
America into the next century, even the next millennium.
Political pundits think the Democrats now hold the advantage. Even
Republican leaders are jittery about keeping their House majority and
wooing voters who may have deserted them. This is curious because many
factors point to Republican strength. The GOP should not be complacent
as it looks ahead to Election 2000, but unease is not in order, either.
A good Republican showing
The Republicans' funk began with their 1998 electoral disappointment.
They retained their House majority but lost five seats (net) and
retained a 10-seat Senate margin. But the fact that the House voting in
particular disappointed Republicans indicates how much the party's
position has been strengthened. Last year was the GOP's second-best
showing of the past half-century (Chart 1) and the first time since 1928
that it won a House majority three times running.
The Republicans' 1998 Showing
Second Best of the Last Half-Century:
Popular Vote for US House of Representatives
Year
Rep.
Dem.
Year
Rep.
Dem.
1948
45.5%
51.9%
1974
40.6%
57.6%
1950
49.0
49.0
1976
44.9
53.7
1952
49.4
49.7
1978
44.9
53.7
1954
47.0
52.5
1980
47.9
50.4
1956
48.7
51.1
1982
43.1
55.3
1958
43.4
56.2
1984
46.8
52.3
1960
44.8
54.7
1986
44.5
54.6
1962
47.2
52.5
1988
45.5
53.4
1964
42.3
57.2
1990
44.9
52.9
1966
48.3
50.9
1992
45.5
50.9
1968
48.2
50.0
1994
52.4
45.5
1970
45.1
53.4
1996
48.9
48.6
1972
46.4
51.7
1998
49.1
47.8
Source:1994-1998: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report,
November election issue; 1970-1992: Statistical Abstract of the
United States;1932-1968: Historical Statistics of the United States,
Colonial Times to 1970.
The Republicans' plurality of 1.3% trailed only their 1994 margin of
5.9%. By way of comparison, Democrats bested Republican candidates by a
collective 5.5% in 1984 -- when it was "morning in America" for the
party -- and utterly trounced the GOP in 1974 (by 17% of the popular
vote) and 1964 (15%).
In terms of party identification, Republicans have held steady the past
10 to 15 years. They are near parity with Democrats but trailing by 5%
to 6%, with roughly a third of the public calling themselves
independents. The GOP's relative standing in party identification is
down a bit only in comparison to late 1994 and early 1995, an unusually
good span for the party (Chart 2).
Chart 2
Republicans' Standing in Party Identification (Gallup Polls)Close to
Their Post-Reagan Average, Though Somewhat Weaker Than inLate '94 and
Early '95
Question: In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a
Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
1998-1999
1994-1995
DateRep.Dem.Ind.DateRep.Dem.Ind.March 6-9, 199831%36%29%March 4-17, 1994
25%37%37%April 1, 1998283531April 8-21, 1994274131May 8-10, 1998293435
May 10-June 8, 1994323133June 5-7, 1998293236June 3-6, 1994303432July
7-8, 1998303432July 1-3, 1994293434Aug. 10-12, 1998293431Aug. 8-9, 1994
293433Sept. 11-12, 1998293632Sept. 6-7, 1994323234Oct. 6-7, 1998253438
Oct. 7-9, 1994293337Nov. 2, 1998283628Nov. 2-6, 1994313432Dec. 4-6, 1998
293434Dec. 2-5, 1994333232Jan. 6, 1999283436Jan. 16-18, 1995303235Feb.
19-21, 1999273337Feb. 3-5, 1995312937March 4, 1999303729March 17-19,
1995312837Source: Surveys by the Gallup Organization.
Virtually every time since May 1950 that Gallup has asked Americans
which party they favored in an upcoming congressional vote, polls have
shown Republicans to be weaker than they actually were come November. In
the last Gallup congressional trial heat in 1992, for example, the
Republicans trailing by 11%; they lost the popular vote by just 5%.
Democrats now have an early edge in House election polling -- but their
"advantage" by this measure is actually slight and resembles that of
early 1994 (Chart 3).
Chart 3
Republicans Look In Much the Same Position in Early 1999 as in Early
1994: Congressional Vote Intent1994OrganizationRep.Dem.1999Organization
Rep.Dem.Early Jan.
Gallup
37%40%Late Jan. American Viewpoint36%43%Mid Jan.
Gallup
3542Late Jan. Washington Post3949Late Feb.
Gallup
3949Early Feb. US News & World Report3844Late March
Gallup
4150Mid Feb.Washington Post4148Note: Question wording varies slightly,
but all of the polls cited above ask respondents which parties'
candidate they would vote for in their congressional district if the
election were being held today.
So why are Republicans worried? One word: impeachment. Though the
current administration has been mired in scandal and President Clinton
has joined Andrew Johnson and Richard Nixon as one of just three
presidents to face impeachment, he supposedly has emerged largely
unscathed. Many commentators and Republicans themselves instead think
the GOP is the biggest post-impeachment loser.
Pollster John Zogby, for instance, argues that the party's handling of
the issue makes it "a big-time loser for Republicans." In a February
Zogby poll, 54% of respondents said "Republicans have become a party
that does not respect privacy and spends too much time moralizing and
investigating political opponents." Just 41% agreed that "Democrats have
become a party that defends sex outside of marriage, perjury and
obstruction of justice."
The forgotten message of the polls
It is not easy to measure the Clinton scandals' impact, of course, but
surely Zogby's approach does not work. The two statements he presented
simply are not opposite. With the Senate trial then underway, a poll
suggesting that Republicans spend too much time investigating political
opponents seems mild and measured compared with the implication that
Democrats instead may approve of extramarital sex and perjury.
The widespread view that Clinton is popular and the public does not care
about private presidential conduct is simply wrong. Six decades of
polling on the "job approval" question demonstrates that much of that
"approval" may have nothing to do with the president himself but with
other circumstances -- whether people are happy with the economy, for
example. And in Clinton's case, there are literally scores of other
questions where the public's response utterly rejects the conclusion
that he is popular.
In a well-designed Feb. 7-8 survey for U.S. News & World Report,
respondents ranked the last nine presidents in terms of morality. Only
1% each said Dwight D. Eisenhower and Jimmy Carter set the lowest moral
standard. Two percent each gave that designation to Lyndon B. Johnson
and George Bush, and 4% to Ronald Reagan. Eleven percent said Kennedy
and 14% Nixon.
Clinton, meanwhile, scored a clear majority: 56% of respondents said he,
more than any other president in the post-World War II era, set the
lowest moral standard.
In a Feb. 7 CBS News poll, just 13% said Clinton was innocent of the
charges in the articles of impeachment. Twenty-nine percent said he was
guilty and should be removed from office; 55% declared him guilty but
did not want him removed. Over the last year, polls have consistently
shown about 70% of the public believing Clinton should either resign
(earlier on), be impeached and removed from office, or strongly censured
-- hardly the response to a "popular" president.
In general, the extent of the public's concern about the president's
conduct has been badly understated by the failure of most polls to ask a
proper array of questions, and by the way the press and much of the
chattering classes generally have interpreted poll findings.
Not the time to trade places
If the public really does not care about Clinton's behavior and he
remains popular, why is his heir apparent, Vice President Al Gore, doing
poorly in trial heats for Election 2000? If there truly is a strong
backlash against Republicans for harassing the president, it is
remarkable that his vice president, who has stood with him steadfastly
and uncritically, is reaping no reward (Chart 4).
Every public poll in the last four months finds Texas Gov. George W.
Bush (R) leading the vice president, often by margins in the 10% to 20%
range (Chart 4). Similarly, most trial heats findElizabeth Dole ahead of
Gore. Clinton cannot run for president again, but a Zogby poll of
mid-February sought nonetheless to measure his current electoral
standing. Asked whether they would prefer Clinton and Gore or Bush and
Dole, 52% opted for the Republican tandem, with just 41% for the
Democrats.
Taken together, then, survey data refute the view of ascendant
Democrats. As for the Clinton scandals, we cannot know their legacy. But
the incumbent Democratic president has paid a tremendous price in public
esteem, and despite the economy's strength, his vice president lags in
trial heats taken during the House impeachment proceedings and the
Senate trial.
In the crassest political terms, no Republican should wish to trade his
party's standing for that of the Democrats as the 20th century
approaches its close.
Everett Carll Ladd is a professor of political science and president of
the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of
Connecticut. The views expressed here are his own and not the center's.
He is also a contributing editor of IntellectualCapital.com.
Related Links
Two sites dubbed 2000GOP.com and Republicans.org track the efforts of
Republicans to regain the White House in the year 2000. Check the Yahoo!
"full coverage" page dedicated to the 2000 presidential election for the
latest developments reported in an array of publications. Yahoo! also
provides detailed coverage of what it has called the "Republican
Shakeup". A good site for snippets and links on announced and potential
presidential candidates: Presidency 2000.
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นนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนนน
