Iowa Straw Vote -- They're Off and Running!



  Bush		  7418		  31%

Forbes	    	4921 		21

Dole		3410		15

Bauer		2114		  9

Buchanan	1719		  7

Alexander	1428		  6

Keyes		1101		  5

Quayle		  916		  4

Hatch		  558		  2

(McCain	----)



Total	          23595





One must look with curiousity at the spin being put on the results of the Iowa caucuses.

But it is little different than the spin that has been run out of the major media for years.

Bush was the clear winner in the straw poll, BUT that is only the tip of the story. He 

won, but his front-runner status has to be a little shakier following the results in Iowa.

He certainly did not win convincingly, as the media hype would have us accept.

The big losers in the contest were Alexander and Buchanan, with Elizabeth Dole 

chasing them for a slot. Buchanan may have lost the most, but he will remain in the

race, and the media will continue to act as if he is or should be a serious contender.

But while his closed view of the world is not going to carry him much higher in the race,

persistance in reporting his diatribes will probably work to hold a segment of the 

electorate from turning to more responsible candidates and away from any real

effort to address the issues. He played a significant role in drawing down Republican

votes in the last two elections, and some might hope that he would serve a similar

function in 2000. He certainly could be useful as a whipping boy to hold off some

measure of conservative support from jelling around Forbes.



But the same media spinners are now suggesting that Forbes should have done

much better since he spent so heavily. They also intimate that he is a dull campaigner

who lacks enthusiasm. But anyone believing that has not listened to what he has been

saying. His message is not rhetorical bombast and that may not work well for some

who see politics as emotional rhetoric.  But Steve Forbes probably showed up

everyone in Iowa, and his finish situates him well for the contests that will be held

early in the new year. 



Lamar Alexander will have serious problems raising money to continue in the race

for very long, and although that may be less the situation for Elizabeth Dole, it will

still be a relevant factor in her effort. Mrs. Dole was rumored just weeks ago as

nearly ready to drop out of the race, but maintaining her candidacy might position

her nicely for a shot at the Vice Presidential nomination. But the popular rendition

is that Mrs. Dole was the big gainer in the results, having done so well while spending

so comparatively little!





At this juncture, it looks like a two person race, for all practical purposes, between

Bush and Forbes, and given the somewhat 'weak' showing of the Texas governor

in Iowa, Forbes may have gained a significant boost from the straw poll on August 14.

Too date, no Iowa winner has gone on to win the Presidency, and while that may not

be that significant in itself, there is a good possibility of a front-runner stumbling along

the way. Bush has some unanswered questions and a little baggage that may keep

conservative support from falling in line behind him. Something that Bush may find

more necessary now is to begin speaking out more forcefully on issues, something

his presumed front-runner position has allowed him to somewhat skirt. He nevertheless

cuts a striking campaign image and has a deep pocket to ride on. 



But so, too, does Forbes. And although he must contend with a criticism that he has

never won or held elective office, that may not be such a negative factor. Not only

is there the record of the vote winning of  Perot, but it should be noted that well

over half of the votes cast in the Iowa caucuses went to candidates who have not

held public office. That does not  predict that they will switch to Forbes, but it does

suggest that a substantive number of voters do not see it as a handicap.



One positive outcome of Iowa, at least as far as the media is concerned, is that the

race is afterall a horserace. That may not be to the advantage of the people of the

nation, and it may backfire on the media predispositions and serve to make Forbes'

presence in the race somewhat stronger. While the Bush people probably are not

yet 'worried' because of Iowa, the Forbes' camp must cleary be elated.









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