Bush, Republican Momentum Building

Oct 14, 2000
Gore leading in states totalling 277 electoral votes, Bush 227
STATE BUSH GORE POLL DATE MoE
(+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)
AL (9) ++52 36 ARG 9/11-15 +/- 4
AK (3) ++47 26 ARG 9/11-17 +/- 4
AR (6) +45 43 Mason-Dixon 9/26-28 +/- 4
AZ (8) +47 40 AZ Republic 10/5-9 +/- 5
CA (54) 37 ++50 Field Poll 9/29-10/8 +/- 3.2
39 +45 Zogby (R) 10/6-8 +/- 3.6
CT (8) 32 ++48 Univ. of CT 9/26-10/1 +/- 5
CO (8) ++45 33 Talmey-Drake 9/29-10/4 +/- 4
DC (3) 14 ++73 ARG 9/7-11 +/- 4
DE (3) 43 +45 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 +/- 4
FL (25) +47 44 Mason-Dixon 10/5-7 +/- 3.5
43 +46 Schroth Assoc. 10/4-6 +/- 4
+46 42 Tarrance Group(R) 10/4-5 +/- 4
GA (13) ++52 36 Marketing Wksp 9/28-10/3 +/- 4
+47 41 Beth Schapiro (D) 10/4-9 +/- 4.5
HI (4) 29 ++57 ARG 9/5-11 +/- 4
IA (7) 39 +47 Research 2000 9/25-27 +/- 4
42 +44 PSI Poll 9/25 +/- 4.8
ID (4) ++53 31 ARG 9/6-9 +/- 4
IL (22) 40 +48 Research 2000 9/25-27 +/- 4
IN (12) ++45 33 Public Opn Lab 10/4-7 +/- 3.7
KS (6) ++55 32 ARG 9/12-15 +/- 4
KY (8) ++51 41 Bluegrass Poll 9/18-21 +/- 4
LA (9) +44 38 Southern Media 9/15-21 +/- 4
MA (12) 26 ++57 ARG 9/8-13 +/- 4
MD (10) 38 ++49 Mason-Dixon 10/6-8 +/- 4
ME (4) 31 +41 Strategic Mrktng 9/14-19 +/- 5
MI (18) 39 +45 EPIC/MRA 9/26-28 +/- 4
MN (10) 39 +45 Star Tribune 9/23-27 +/- 3.4
40 +47 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 +/- 4
MO (11) 40 +43 ARG 9/14-20 +/- 4
MS (7) ++48 37 ARG 9/12-16 +/- 4
MT (3) ++48 37 Mason-Dixon 9/21-23 +/- 4
NE (5) ++53 32 ARG 9/7-10 +/- 4
NV (4) 43 +44 Public Opinion (R)9/19-21 +/- 4
NH (4) 38 +46 ARG 10/5-9 +/- 4
NJ (15) 36 ++50 Quinnipiac 9/26-10/1 +/- 3.4
34 ++48 Research 2000 9/21-27 +/- 3
NY (33) 35 ++51 Zogby 9/29-10/1 +/- 3.7
NM (5) 42 42 NM State Univ. 9/26-28 +/- 4
+44 41 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 5
NC (14) +47 43 Mason-Dixon 10/5-8 +/- 4
+48 44 Research 2000 10/4-6 +/- 5
ND (3) ++47 35 Public Affairs 10/2-5 +/- 4
OH (21) +48 43 Columbus Dispatch 9/22-29 +/- 2
OK (8) ++51 33 Consumer Logic 9/23-10/2 +/- 3.5
OR (7) 41 +42 Davis, Hibbitts 9/5-11 +/- 4
PA (23) 36 +42 Univ. of CT 10/3-10 +/- 4
40 +42 Publc Opin St (R) 10/8-9 +/- 3.5
RI (4) 31 ++54 ARG 9/9-14 +/- 4
SC (8) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 4
SD (3) ++55 34 ARG 9/6-10 +/- 4
TN (11) +46 43 Mason-Dixon 9/25-27 +/- 4
TX (32) ++58 30 ARG 9/14-19 +/- 4
UT (5) ++57 29 ARG 9/8-12 +/- 4
VA (13) +46 39 Rich. Times-Dis. 9/22-10/2 +/- 4.4
VT (3) 37 ++51 Research 2000 10/10-11 +/- 5
WA (11) 37 +44 Elway Poll 9/22-24 +/- 5
WV (5) +39 37 WV Research Ctr 9/18-16 +/- 6
WI (11) 38 +43 Market Shares 9/18-20 +/- 4
WY (3) ++57 37 Mason-Dixon 9/16-17 +/- 5

Oct 16, 2000

ELECTORAL COLLEGE TOTALS: (270 needed to win)
LEADS OUTSIDE MoE ALL LEADS
STATES EVs STATES EVs
Bush 17 127 Bush 26 227
Gore 9 92 Gore 23 263

Most notably, Michigan has changed from polling for Gore to a slight edge for Bush

STATE BUSH GORE POLL DATE MoE
(+ indicates lead inside the MoE, ++ a lead outside)
AL (9) ++52 36 ARG 9/11-15 +/- 4
AK (3) ++47 26 ARG 9/11-17 +/- 4
AR (6) +45 43 Mason-Dixon 9/26-28 +/- 4
AZ (8) +47 40 AZ Republic 10/5-9 +/- 5
CA (54) 37 ++50 Field Poll 9/29-10/8 +/- 3.2
39 +45 Zogby (R) 10/6-8 +/- 3.6
CT (8) 32 ++48 Univ. of CT 9/26-10/1 +/- 5
CO (8) ++45 33 Talmey-Drake 9/29-10/4 +/- 4
DC (3) 14 ++73 ARG 9/7-11 +/- 4
DE (3) 43 +45 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 +/- 4
FL (25) +47 44 Mason-Dixon 10/5-7 +/- 3.5
43 +46 Schroth Assoc. 10/4-6 +/- 4
+46 42 Tarrance Group(R) 10/4-5 +/- 4
GA (13) ++52 36 Marketing Wksp 9/28-10/3 +/- 4
+47 41 Beth Schapiro (D) 10/4-9 +/- 4.5
HI (4) 29 ++57 ARG 9/5-11 +/- 4
IA (7) 39 +47 Research 2000 9/25-27 +/- 4
42 +44 PSI Poll 9/25 +/- 4.8
ID (4) ++53 31 ARG 9/6-9 +/- 4
IL (22) 37 +45 Market Shares 10/6-9 +/- 3
IN (12) ++45 33 Public Opn Lab 10/4-7 +/- 3.7
KS (6) ++55 32 ARG 9/12-15 +/- 4
KY (8) ++51 41 Bluegrass Poll 9/18-21 +/- 4
LA (9) +44 38 Southern Media 9/15-21 +/- 4
MA (12) 26 ++57 ARG 9/8-13 +/- 4
MD (10) 38 ++49 Mason-Dixon 10/6-8 +/- 4
ME (4) 31 +41 Strategic Mrktng 9/14-19 +/- 5
MI (18) +43 42 Mitchell Research 10/9-13 +/- 4
42 +45 EPIC-MRA 10/11-12 +/- 4
+42 41 Mrkting Res. (R) 10/10-12 +/- 5
MN (10) 39 +45 Star Tribune 9/23-27 +/- 3.4
40 +47 Mason-Dixon 9/22-25 +/- 4
MO (11) 40 +43 ARG 9/14-20 +/- 4
MS (7) ++48 37 ARG 9/12-16 +/- 4
MT (3) ++48 37 Mason-Dixon 9/21-23 +/- 4
NE (5) ++53 32 ARG 9/7-10 +/- 4
NV (4) 43 +44 Public Opinion (R)9/19-21 +/- 4
NH (4) 38 +46 ARG 10/5-9 +/- 4
NJ (15) 31 ++45 Gannett NJ 10/12-14 +/- 4.2
NY (33) 35 ++51 Marist Inst. 10/10-11 +/- 4.5
NM (5) 42 42 NM State Univ. 9/26-28 +/- 4
+44 41 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 5
NC (14) +47 43 Mason-Dixon 10/5-8 +/- 4
+48 44 Research 2000 10/4-6 +/- 5
ND (3) ++47 35 Public Affairs 10/2-5 +/- 4
OH (21) +48 43 Columbus Dispatch 9/22-29 +/- 2
OK (8) ++51 33 Consumer Logic 9/23-10/2 +/- 3.5
OR (7) 41 +42 Davis, Hibbitts 9/5-11 +/- 4
PA (23) 36 +42 Univ. of CT 10/3-10 +/- 4
40 +42 Publc Opin St (R) 10/8-9 +/- 3.5
RI (4) 31 ++54 ARG 9/9-14 +/- 4
SC (8) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 4
SD (3) ++55 34 ARG 9/6-10 +/- 4
TN (11) +46 43 Mason-Dixon 9/25-27 +/- 4
TX (32) ++58 30 ARG 9/14-19 +/- 4
UT (5) ++57 29 ARG 9/8-12 +/- 4
VA (13) +46 39 Rich. Times-Dis. 9/22-10/2 +/- 4.4
VT (3) 37 ++51 Research 2000 10/10-11 +/- 5
WA (11) 37 +44 Elway Poll 9/22-24 +/- 5
WV (5) +39 37 WV Research Ctr 9/18-16 +/- 6
WI (11) 38 +43 Market Shares 9/18-20 +/- 4
WY (3) ++57 37 Mason-Dixon 9/16-17 +/- 5


Other Polling Data

National Journal


Bush Has Edge in New Poll

By WILL LESTER
.c The Associated Press


WASHINGTON (AP) - George W. Bush has the edge over Al Gore in a new poll, apparently helped by a public perception that he is more trustworthy and increased concern over the nation's morals.

The NBC-Wall Street Journal poll had Bush ahead 48 percent to 42 percent among likely voters, with a 4-point error margin. A CNN-Time poll released over the weekend also showed Bush up slightly, 48 percent to 43 percent, and a Voter.com Battleground poll had Bush up 43 percent to 39 percent. Several other surveys have shown the two candidates within the error margins.

Bush has gained ground in the race for 270 electoral votes. Heading into the first debate, Gore narrowly led Bush, according to analysis of state polls and interviews with consultants in both parties. Now, Bush holds a slight lead after states that once leaned toward Gore, such as Pennsylvania and Tennessee, became tossups after the first debate on Oct. 3.

Democrat Gore continues to hold the advantage on top issues like the economy, Social Security, foreign policy and education. He also has a big advantage in having the knowledge and experience to handle the presidency.

Republican Bush scores highest on trust. Almost half, 45 percent, said he was more honest and straightforward than Gore, 29 percent. Bush also had the advantage on setting the proper moral tone for the country, 39 percent to 29 percent, and being trustworthy enough to make the right decisions, 43 percent to 32 percent.

Bush also scored better on leadership qualities, 41 percent to 35 percent, and being more likable, 44 percent to 30 percent, in the NBC-WSJ poll of 736 likely voters taken Oct. 13-15.

Gore ran into trouble on the trust question after the first debate, when some of his comments turned out to be flawed. He apologized for the statements during the second debate last Wednesday and promised to be more careful.

Bush has been accused by Democrats of exaggerating, but Gore's history of exaggeration caused the claims about him to resonate more loudly.

Gore and Bush were about even on trust in the weeks after the Democratic convention.

When asked whether restoring moral and family values or maintaining economic growth was a higher priority, more voters said moral values, 43 percent to 31 percent, in the NBC-WSJ poll. That's a reversal from a month ago, when economic growth was favored, 44 percent to 36 percent.

When asked which candidate would be better at handling the crisis in the Middle East, Bush and Gore were about even in the NBC-WSJ poll. In a Christian Science Monitor poll of 800 likely voters, by a 48-42 margin, voters said they would have more confidence in Bush to provide leadership if war broke out and the United States became involved.

AP-NY-10-16-00 1842EDT

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.




Early Voters May Be Key in Tight Races

By DAVID PACE
.c The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (Oct. 16) - A record number of Americans will vote before Election Day this year, a phenomenon that's transforming the parties' get-out-the-vote drives and that could affect tight races for president and Congress.

Oregon is holding the nation's first all-mail balloting, and millions more will vote absentee in states such as California, Washington, Nevada and Arizona, where control of the House and Senate could be settled.

The numbers keep rising as states make it easier to vote ahead of time.

Washington, where the absentee vote is expected to top 50 percent, has three competitive House races, a key Senate contest and a tight presidential battle, too. The state counts all absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day, so votes will still be coming in after Nov. 7.

''If it's a close election this time, it's possible we could have to wait a week to find out the winner,'' said Bryan Jones, a political scientist at the University of Washington.

California, where more than 1 million absentee ballots won't be counted until after Election Day, has five House races that could spell the difference in control of Congress. Nevada, where absentee and early voting accounted for more than 40 percent of the 1998 vote, has competitive Senate and House races.

Both parties are maneuvering to turn the early voting into a political advantage.

''We're doing mail, phones, door-to-door canvassing, and we've got our precinct organizations in place and our grass-roots organizations in place,'' said Ryan Erwin, executive director of the Republican Party in Nevada, where early voting begins Saturday.

''My pledge to voters is we'll quit bugging you when you vote,'' he said.

In Oregon, Vice President Al Gore's campaign also is kicking off its get-out-the-vote effort this week, when voters start receiving ballots in the mail.

''We're going to focus on making sure our voters turn in their ballots in time for them to count,'' campaign spokesman David Chai said. ''We're going to make sure we go to every single household in our base and to independents and some Republicans as well.''

Republicans historically have benefited more from absentee votes because ''it's the upscale people and the people who are more regular voters who avail themselves of these things,'' said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

But Doug Lewis, who heads a Houston-based association of election and voter registration officials, said the liberalization of absentee and early voting rules over the past decade may have eroded that GOP edge.

''More than likely now, it's going to fairly accurately reflect the public at large in those states because the process has been so simplified and made as convenient as possible,'' he said.

That's what happened in Washington, one of the few states that record the differences between absentee and election day voting.

In 1992, when 18 percent of the vote was absentee, President Clinton defeated former President Bush 44 percent to 31 percent among Election Day voters, but just 41 percent to 36 percent among absentees.

Six years later, when almost half the votes cast in the Washington Senate race were absentee, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray defeated Republican Linda Smith, winning 58 percent on Election Day and 59 percent of the absentees.

More than half the states either have liberalized their absentee voting rules or allow voting before Election Day, or both. Those with liberalized rules no longer require voters to state a reason for being unable to vote Election Day in order to get an absentee ballot.

In 1996, absentee and early voting accounted for more than 10 percent of the total vote in 18 states, more than 20 percent in nine states, and more than 30 percent in three states.

In 1998, early voting made up more than 10 percent of the total vote in 15 states, more than 20 percent in eight states, more than 30 percent in five states and more than 40 percent in three states.

AP-NY-10-16-00 1515EDT

Copyright 2000 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. All active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.


national journal
Saturday, October 14, 2000

FUNDRAISING: GOP Holds Edge At 3rd Quarter Mark


The RNC and DNC "have shattered quarterly fund-raising levels" through the third quarter. George W. Bush raised $125M in six months for the RNC, double the $60M Al Gore raised for the DNC. During the third quarter, which ended 9/30, the RNC had raised $101M and had $45M in cash on hand. The DNC had raised $55M and had $26M in cash on hand (New York Times).

POLL UPDATE: Dead Even In Gallup Tracking


George W. Bush and Al Gore are tied at 45% in the latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll. Ralph Nader received 3% and Pat Buchanan less than 1% in the survey which was conducted 10/10-12 with a +/- 4% margin of error.

Bush leads Gore 44%-41% in the latest Reuters/MSNBC tracking poll. Nader received 4% and Buchanan 1%. The survey was conducted 10/11-13 by Zogby Int'l and has a +/- 3% margin of error.

Bush leads Gore 48%-45% among likely voters in a new Time/CNN poll conducted 10/12-13 with a +/- 4%.

Bush is up 45%-43% among likely voters in a new Newsweek poll. Nader received 4% and Buchanan 1%. The poll was conducted 10/12-13 with a +/- 4% margin of error.


AP

A Mason-Dixon Opinion Research survey published this week showed the presidential race in Florida very close, with Bush at 47 percent, Gore at 44 and 7 percent undecided. Bush has visited the state 14 times, Gore 12.

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