Rumplestiltskin Is Their Name


As recent elections have shown, Gore will need to have at least a five + point minimal lead in public opionion polls in any state for him to be likely to carry it in next Tuesday's election. That may make even California, New Jersey, and Maryland
vulnerable for him. With Ross Perot jumping on the Bush bandwagon tonight (11/2)
on the Larry King Show, the breeze seems to be in the air. Perot might have done
this anyway, but it almost seemed as if he wanted to have some say in the outcome
and entered his two cents worth at the last minute for that reason. Democrats grow
increasingly desperate. Also today, they leaked a story of a DUI arrest of George
W. Bush ffrom a quarter century ago. But their rhetoric, through the campaign negative and mean, has reached a new pitch of class war and distortion in the past week.

Utilizing the measure that Bush will carry the states for which polls show him ahead
or only slightly behind, it is very possible that he may carry 41 or more states and
win 392 electoral votes doing that:

AL (9) ++55 37 Capital Survey 10/18-20 +/- 4.7
AK (3) ++47 26 ARG 9/11-17 +/- 4
AR (6) 46 46 Opinion Res. LR 10/27-30 +/- 4
+45 44 Mason-Dixon 10/27-29 +/- 4
AZ (8) ++49 39 KAET-TV/AZ Univ. 10/19-22 +/- 4
CO (8) +46 37 Ciruli 10/27-30 +/- 5
DE (3) 43 +45 Mason-Dixon 10/4-5 +/- 4
FL (25) 41 +48 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
+46 44 Mason-Dixon 10/30-31 +/- 3.5
44 +49 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
GA (13) +48 40 Mason-Dixon 10/12-14 +/- 4
IA (7) +44 41 PSI Poll 10/30 +/- 5
ID (4) ++56 30 Mason-Dixon 10/25-26 +/- 4
IL (22) 42 +46 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
43 +46 Mason-Dixon 10/28-30 +/- 4
IN (12) ++53 30 Market Shares 10/26-28 +/- 4
KS (6) ++55 32 ARG 9/12-15 +/- 4
KY (8) ++55 40 Bluegrass Poll 10/26-29 +/- 4
LA (9) ++52 39 Mason-Dixon 10/20-22 +/- 4
ME (4) 42 42 RKM Research 10/28-30 +/- 4
MI (18) 41 ++50 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
40 +45 Detroit News 10/30-31 +/- 5
44 +48 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
MN (10) 41 +44 Mason-Dixon 10/26-27 +/- 4
MO (11) +46 43 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
MS (7) ++48 37 ARG 9/12-16 +/- 4
MT (3) ++49 37 Mason-Dixon 10/23-24 +/- 4
NE (5) ++56 31 RKM Research 10/25-27 +/- 3
NV (4) +47 43 Mason-Dixon 10/26-28 +/- 4
NH (4) +45 40 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
42 +43 RKM Research 10/30-31 +/- 4.5
NM (5) 42 42 NM State Univ. 9/26-28 +/- 4
+44 41 Mason-Dixon 9/28-30 +/- 5
NC (14) ++52 42 Research 2000 10/30-31 +/- 5
+48 41 Mason-Dixon 10/27-30 +/- 4
ND (3) ++47 35 Public Affairs 10/2-5 +/- 4
OH (21) +48 40 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
OK (8) ++51 33 Consumer Logic 9/23-10/2 +/- 3.5
OR (7) +45 41 ARG 10/20-24 +/- 4
PA (23) 41 +47 Zogby 10/29-31 +/- 4
42 +48 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
SC (8) ++53 38 Mason-Dixon 10/27-30 +/- 4
SD (3) ++55 34 ARG 9/6-10 +/- 4
TN (11) +48 45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
43 49 ARG 10/30-11/1+/- 4
TX (32) ++58 30 ARG 9/14-19 +/- 4
UT (5) ++57 29 ARG 9/8-12 +/- 4
VA (13) +49 41 Mason-Dixon 10/30-31 +/- 4
WA (11) 43 +45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
WV (5) ++47 37 OH State 10/11-24 +/- 4
++46 36 Ryan-McGinn (R) 10/21-23 +/- 4
WI (11) 42 +45 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 4
WY (3) ++57 37 Mason-Dixon 9/16-17 +/- 5

Al Gore cannot even be sure of 146 electors because the race in California, Maryland, and New Jersey will be very close.

CA (54) 40 ++47 Field Poll 10/27-31 +/- 3.2
CT (8) 32 ++48 Univ. of CT 9/26-10/1 +/- 5
DC (3) 14 ++73 ARG 9/7-11 +/- 4
HI (4) 29 ++57 ARG 9/5-11 +/- 4
MA (12) 26 ++57 ARG 9/8-13 +/- 4
MD (10) 40 +48 Mason-Dixon 10/25-26 +/- 4
NJ (15) 36 +41 Gannett NJ Poll 10/26-28 +/- 4.1
35 ++47 Star Ledger 10/23-26 +/- 4.5
NY (33) 36 ++51 Zogby 10/30-11/1+/- 3.8
35 ++53 Princeton 10/28-31 +/- 3
36 ++50 Marist 10/29-30 +/- 4.5
RI (4) 29 ++47 Brown Univ. 10/21-22 +/- 5
VT (3) 36 ++52 Research 2000 10/23-25 +/- 5

Since Maine and Nebraska can divide their electors, the final vote count would be
something like at least 390 for Bush to 148 for Gore. While it is premature to speculate on the results on a state by state basis in terms of raw numbers or
percentages, it would put the projection model laid out in Pollstergeist as quite
accurate. It suggested that Minnesota, Oregon, Washington, and West Virginia
would end up in the Democrat column. It also pointed to a Republican win in
California, and those may be the only places it failed to accurately predict the outcome. It's suggestion of 409 electoral votes for Bush, again, may be quite
close to what is realized. If he carries California, Gore would end up with 127
electors in the race. And as the methodology suggested, there is more evidence
that Clinton could not have won in 1992 and 1996 had Perot not been in the race.

Media pundits have been arguing in recent weeks that several states have voted
Democrat two of the last three elections. But that is misrepresentative because
the primary reason that many of them did so was the Perot factor. Somehow
the news stories tonight stress the DUI incident and shy away from mention of
Perot's strong endorsement of the Texas Governor. One might wonder if they
have not been exhausting their creative powers on their stories, but they are very
imaginative and should have little trouble spinning the election next week. But their
attempts to spin the straw votes into a gold victory for Gore and his party in Congress will likely leave them jumping up and down shouting as they stomp
themselves into the ground may leave them buried in the Bush landslide along
with Rumplestiltskin.

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