It will never happen. At least not unless it agreed to well beforehand as a sanctioned
NCAA event. There are a lot of reasons for this. Frost, Griese, and Woodson, for
example, to pick just three of many, have too much to lose. They have now completed
their college football careers, and each is in line to sign megamillion dollar contracts with
NFL teams. A playoff for the national championship of college football, even where there
are supposed 'co-champions' as Michigan and Nebraska are being called this year, would
be a hard-fought contest, and the risk to players in one more game, let alone one of this
magnitude, would be too great to warrant it, no matter how much prestige or money was
on the line for the schools involved. It would also be risky business from the standpoint of
potential outcomes. On any given day, anything can happen in any football game. What if
a national playoff were held, and, for whatever reason -- say, an outbreak of flu on one
team or the other -- there was a blow-out, with one team trouncing the other, like 55 to 9?
And yet, the schools could reap huge rewards, in money and reputation. The audience
share of such a game on national television at the end of January, after the Super Bowl,
would be huge. Networks would be willing to pay big bucks, and advertisers would pay
fortunes for seconds of air time. It would probably end up being called the Ford Bowl or
the IBM Bowl, or the Ross Perot Bowl. And Las Vegas professional sports rooms would
be overjoyed.
All that aside, for whatever reason, it did happen in 1998. Michigan had won the AP
sportswriters poll handily while Nebraska had edged them out in the coaches' poll with
first place votes of 32 to 30. (How that can be called co-champions is beside me, anyway.
The actual total vote wasn't even close. . . Oh, but I am overlooking the electoral college!)
It was to be held in the Orange Bowl in Miami on the last day of January. The Super
Dome in New Orleans was ruled out because it had artificial turf. And the parties could
not agree on the Sugar Bowl or going to Arizona. But the Orange Bowl was good. It
would be mild and probably perfect football weather, and what sports reporter anywhere
would pass on an opportunity to visit Miami in mid-winter? Some had wanted to call it the
College Bowl, and other names were bandied about, but in the end, it was decided to call
it the Wonder Bowl. A month was a long time, but it took some doing to set it up, and the
previous week-end was occupied by the NFL's grand finale. Any later, and it would
interfere with the Winter Olympics. The month also gave players a little time to lick their
wounds for one final frey. The coaches needed time to prepare, and there were logistical
matters of getting everything there for the match that had to be ironed out. The NFL was
also concerned about some luster which might be taken off of the Super Bowl, too, but it
finally coalesced to the inevitable. Michigan and Nebraska would square off to decide the
national championship once and for all, at least for this year. This time, however. former
President Gerald Ford, a Michigan alumnus, had been invited to toss the coin. The stage
was set.
Kick off came at 7 PM on Saturday night, January 31st. Nebraska had lost the coin toss,
but that was the way it had gone all year for them. Woodson was back, and the kick was
in the air.
The Wolverines took the ball to the Cornhuskers' 28 yard line before their drive was
halted on their third possession. They had collected a few first downs to that point, but
couldn't make into the red zone. Facing a fourth down and 7, they elected to kick a 39
yard field goal and went ahead. But Nebraska came right back. They ran back the kick-off
to their own 48 yard line, and four plays later were down to the Michigan 21. On the next
play, Frost took the ball and galloped all the way into the end zone to take the lead.
Nebraska was again driving at the end of the first quarter, having taken a Michigan punt
on their own 6 yard line and moved it into Michigan territory. The period ended with them
on the Wolverine 36 yard line. With the second period, they continued their advance, and
Frost connected with a 23 yard pass before the drive stalled and
they had to settle for a 13 yard field goal
with but two minutes gone in the period.
Michigan could do nothing on their next set of downs, and, trailing 10 to 3, they had to
punt again. The Cornhuskers ran into a stubborn Michigan defense again after marching to
midfield. They punted again and Michigan ran a lot of time off the clock but got only to
the Nebraska 46 before they had to punt it over again. The Nebraska squad proceeded to
launch another drive down field, beginning at their own 8 yard line, and had crossed mid-
field with first and ten half way through the quarter. But on the second play from
scrimmage on the next set of downs, Frost's pass was intercepted by Woodson who ran it
all the way to the endzone for Michigan's second score. The extra point knotted up the
game, and it remained that way at half time.
Coach Carr's team had a record all season of coming out for the second half with some
adjustments on which they took control of the game. But before that happened this time,
Nebraska took the kick-off starting the second half and marched down to the other end of
the field. The Wolverines had the best defense in the nation, however, and it dug in and
stopped the drive at their 11 yard line, and Nebraska had to settle for taking the lead with
a 13 - 10 edge.
Now, it was Michigan's turn, and they promptly drew blood again. In three plays, they
were knocking at the door. Then they ran into a wall which found them facing fourth and
fifteen on Nebraska's 18. They pulled a trick play out of their bag, and a faked field goal
caught the Cornhuskers off-guard, and Michigan found itself with a new lease on life with
first and goal at the 3 yard line marker. On the next play, they ran it in to take the lead, 17
-13.
The tough defense stiffened and Nebraska stalled for the rest of the period, and with three
minutes left in the period, Michigan took a punt and headed down the field to their
opponents' 18 before they ran into fourth and two. This time, the field goal attempt was a
real one, and they added to their lead, making it 20 to 13 just as the third quarter came to
an end.
Although Michigan had earned a reputation of a tough defense that wore its opposition
down late in the game, Nebraska had the most prolific scoring offense of the major teams
in the country, and proceeded to make a run at the Wolverines. At the start of the final
stanza, they put a series of plays together down to the Michigan 3, before they were
halted. With still a lot of time left on the clock, they opted for an almost certain field goal,
which Michigan nearly blocked. The tipped kick, however, found its way just through the
goalposts, slipping over about a foot in and up from the left corner. The score was now 20
to 16.
It looked as if they were going to gain the momentum on the next series of downs.
Michigan took the ball at their 21, but the Cornhuskers stopped the runback in its tracks.
On the next play, they sacked Griese for a 9 yard loss, and got him again for five more on
second down. Facing third and 24 on their own 6 yard line, Griese uncorked a pass out to
mid-field on the next play. Nine plays later, Griese had connected on another one into the
endzone and took the lead at 27 to 16 with about seven minutes left on the clock.
The teams traded possessions, both going three and out, but eating up the clock, so that
when Michigan again had to punt. Nebraska took the ball at their 23 with five minutes left
in the game. After the runback, they were at their own forty, and ready to roll. Directing a
running and passing attack that included two scampers by Frost for twenty-four yards,
they were ready to strike back, and did so on the first down play from the 8, Frost twisting
out of what looked like a sack to take it over the goal line, bringing them within four
points, but with 2:15 left in the game.
With time running out, Nebraska successfully ran an on-side kick which gave them the ball
at Michigan's 43 yard line at the two minute point. They would have to score a touchdown
to win -- a field goal would not help; it would leave them a point behind with almost no
hope of getting the ball back. Frost ran for a first down to the 32, and then threw two
incomplete passes. Third and ten with the clock dancing close to one minute left, and
Frost hit his receiver at the 20 and he danced down to the 17 before he was brought down.
There was still time left (38 seconds), and Nebraska still had two time outs left, but they
would have to pass if they had much hope of making it in. The first try fell to the turf just
outside the goalline. 34 seconds left. The second was caught at the 12 as the receiver was
forced out of bounds. 27 seconds on the clock with third and five. The game hung in the
balance as Frost took the snap and stepped back to look down field. For a second, it
looked like he was going to be caught back at the twenty, but then he saw an opening and
started to run toward the mark. At the last moment, however, before he reached the line
of scrimmage, he fired toward the endzone. It looked as if the Cornhuskers were going to
pull it out, but just as the ball passed the goal line, Woodson appeared, leaping seemingly
out of nowhere, and grabbed the ball as he rolled across his own endzone grass. No flag!
The photos snapped as the jumped and grabbed the ball looked for all like the Heisman
Trophy stance before he finished his leap on the turf.
Woodson had pulled it out again! The Wolverines had the ball at the twenty and there
were but 19 ticks left. Griese took the snap and went to his knee with 16 seconds left and
Nebraska took a time out. The same play on second down brought the clock to 13
seconds. Nebraska took its last time out. And now, with 13 seconds left, and with third
down, all Michigan had to do was protect their quarterback as he took the snap and went
to his knee again. Nebraska could not stop the clock and they wouldn't have to run
another play. It was fourth and 14, but time would expire and they wouldn't have to punt
because the clock was at 10, 9, 8, . . . Michigan had won the Wonder Bowl, 27 to 23. The
Victors were all over the field and they were quickly joined by the fans as time ran out on
the clock.
The line score looked like this:
1 2 3 4 F
Michigan 3 7 10 7 27
Nebraska 7 3 3 10 23
But is that the way it would have gone? There has been a lot of speculation on this point --
computer attempt to simulate a game, expert comparisons, and the like. One way would
be to compare how the two schools fared against teams they both played. There would be
potential pitfalls with that -- injuries at various parts of the season, points they two were
played during the season, and the spirit of the 'big game' if there in fact was a play-off
because an entirely different dynamic might alter the psychology of the game. But
Michigan and Nebraska both defeated two teams, Colorado and Baylor during the season:
Michigan 27 Nebraska 27
Colorado 3 Colorado 24
Michigan 38 Nebraska 49
Baylor 3 Baylor 21
The scores are certainly indicative of the vaunted Michigan defense, but also of Nebraska's
comparative want with regard to defense. In no other game they played this year did
Baylor do as poorly as they did against Michigan. Indeed, they averaged just over 19
points a game in compiling their 2 and 9 record. And while no team scored as much
against Baylor as did Nebraska with 49, though Miami with 45 came close, the average
score of its opponents was just over 35 points per game. At the same time, Nebraska
score slightly less than their average total of about 47 points against Baylor, while Baylor
scored well above the average points yielded by Nebraska per game of just over 16.
On the other hand, Michigan's victory over the Bears held them well below their average
point total and also saw the Wolverines roll up more than the average number of points
they gave opponents. Michigan actually scored six times (one field goal) compared to
Nebraska's seven touchdowns.
There are some other comparisons. Nebraska also handily beat Texas Tech, 29-0, while
the Red Raiders beat Baylor 35-14. The Cornhuskers rolled over the Sooners 69-7, while
Oklahoma edged Baylor 24-23. They also both played Missouri, Texas A & M, and Iowa
State:
Nebraska 45 Nebraska 54 Nebraska 77
Missouri 38 Texas A&M 15 Iowa State 14
Baylor 24 Baylor 10 Baylor 17
Missouri 42 Texas A&M 38 Iowa State 24
However, that does little more than re-enforce what the Nebraska win over Baylor shows.
The average score of Baylor in these three games was 17, and its opponents averaged 34
points a game, compared to their 49-21 loss to Nebraska. Nebraska did but little better in
their win over Baylor than these other three teams did on average, although they did roll
up big triumphs over the three teams themselves. That no doubt suggests a weakness of
the schedule that has been suggested as one of the reasons Nebraska looked so good all
season. Michigan did not play any of these teams this season,
Colorado also played the Aggies, Tigers, Cyclones, and Wildcats in common with
Nebraska:
Nebraska 54 Nebraska 45 Nebraska 77 Nebraska 56
Texas A&M 15 Missouri 38 Iowa State 14 Kansas St 26
Colorado 10 Colorado 31 Colorado 43 Colorado 20
Texas A&M 16 Missouri 41 Iowa State 38 Kansas St 37
Missouri, which nearly surprised Nebraska, ran up almost as many points against the
Cornhuskers as they did against Colorado, but little else can probably be concluded from
this comparison.
In their games against Colorado and Baylor, Michigan averaged almost 33 points to
Nebraska's average of 38 versus them, while Michigan gave up an average of 3 points to
them while Nebraska gave them an average of almost 23 points. We can average their
comparative showings against these common teams.
Michigan 33 Nebraska 38
opponent 3 opponent 23
If Michigan was able to score only the average number of points in a matchup with
Nebraska that Baylor and Colorado did against Nebraska, they would have 28 points to 21
points as the average of the opposite match, assuming Nebraska scored the average of its
38 point average against Baylor and Colorado against an average 3 points yielded by
Michigan's defense against them. On this comparison, Michigan might be expected to beat
Nebraska 28 to 21 -- rather close to the hypothetical Wonder Bowl game score of
Michigan 27 to 23 for Nebraska.
If we do the same against all their opponents, we get only a slightly smaller point spread,
but in the opposite direction, with Michigan's average point total of 27 averaged with
Nebraska's opponent's average score of 16.5 suggesting they might score a little over 22
points against Nebraska, while the Cornhuskers's average point total of 46.5 taken
together with Michigan's average opponents' score of 9.5 yielding a mean of 27 points for
them. That assumes that Michigan's defense was no better than the average of the
opposition Nebraska faced, which is far from accurate.
Graphing Michigan's scores in all of its games this year by plotting its point spread over
teams against each team's won/lost percentage allows us to calculate how they might
hypothetically fare against a team that had a 1.000 won/lost percentage, like Nebraska.
This plot yields an estimation that Michigan would have come out even against such an
opponent. The same yardstick for Nebraska, however, suggests that against a 12 and 0
opponent, Nebraska would come out at a -20. That suggests in sum an almost three
touchdown edge for Michigan.
Another comparison that could be utilized would be to compare the teams on a set number
of stipulated categories:
Michigan Nebraska
Toughness of Schedule 1 0
(number of opponents under .500)
Average points scored by team 0 1
Opponents Records 1 0
Point Spread 0 1
Points scored by team 0 1
Opponents points scored 1 0
Better record against same teams 1 0
Correlation between point spread
and opponents w/l pct 1 0
Average # of scores per game 0 1
Average # scores against 1 0
6 4
Again, the Wolverines come out slightly ahead by this analysis.
Taking all of these comparisons together, which includes the unrealistic conclusion based
on estimation of Michigan's defense performing at a level only equal to that of Nebraska's
opponents, we can come up with the following:
Michigan Nebraska
Average Off Total 27 47
Aver Defense Yield 16.5(NE) 9.5(MI)
Same Opponent Comparison 28 21
Graphed Comparison 20 0
Ten Point Comparison 42(6 x 7) 28(4 X 7)
Combined Average 32 23
It must be assumed that Michigan might have difficulty scoring that high against Nebraska,
although their offense if undoubtedly more potent than the average one Nebraska faced
through its regular season. But they might well be able to tally a score above what
Nebraska's opponents' mustered. By the same token, it might be wise to consider that
nothing Michigan faced all year had the power of Nebraska's offense, and it is probably
safe to assume that they could have done better than Michigan's average opponents did
against them, and would have garnered more than 10 points. With those slight adjustments
to the combined average, the score of the 'Wonder Bowl' was estimated to be:
Michigan 27
Nebraska 23
The play by play was hypothesized based on characterizations of the typified play of each
team in its games during the regular season.
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