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BURMA'S TIME TO CHOOSE

ASIAWEEK VIEWPOINT October 2, 1998

A worsening economy creates an explosive situation

Aung Naing Oo is the Foreign Affairs Secretary of the All Burma Students' Democratic Front.

Ten years ago the Burmese military opened fire on me and fellow unarmed students as we marched in Rangoon crying for human rights and democracy. Although no real progress has been made toward those goals, the pressure for democratization has reached a crest again today. A major trigger of the 1988 uprising was a steep decline in the living standards of ordinary people. Over the last decade economic mismanagement has increased destitution and suffering. Now, in addition to the U.S. sanctions and the pullout of businesses under pressure from human rights groups, the Asian economic crisis has been the final nail in the coffin of the junta's plan for development.

The kyat value is 50 times lower than its official rate, foreign exchange reserves are reportedly down to one month of imports, a number of major infrastructure projects have been discontinued, and, in an unprecedented move, the army has been forced to reduce basic food supplies to many units. The World Bank's announcement recently that it would be cutting all financial ties with Burma because the administration has been unable to service its debts for the last six months, indicates that the economy has contracted a terminal illness.

Two developments outside Burma have given us heart. One was the downfall of President Suharto. For the generals who run Burma, Suharto was an inspiration. Since 1993 their main strategy to hold onto power has been based on the Indonesian model of dwifungsi, where the military has a role in governing the country. The junta received an unpleasant surprise at the recent ASEAN Ministerial meeting with the proposal by Thailand, backed by the Philippines, to drop the grouping's policy of non-interference in favor of "flexible engagement". This was not endorsed, but pressure for dialogue coming from so close to home is a new and significant development.

For the past 10 years, the major opposition groups comprising students, monks and workers have been attempting to organize underground movements inside the country. Many believe that the only hope for return to civilian rule would be another massive show of people power. The student demonstrations that have taken place since August 24 may well herald the start of this. The principal fuel for the flames, however, comes from Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD). Her recent change in tactics giving an ultimatum to the government to convene the parliament and when this was ignored announcing that the NLD will convene a people's parliament has brought tension to a new peak.

The NLD has repeatedly called for political dialogue. The generals have refused, maintaining that a dialogue is already being held at the National Convention: a farcical gathering at which delegates are only allowed to read from pre-censored papers. One delegate, Dr. Aung Khin Sint, was even sentenced to 20 years imprisonment for attempting to lobby other delegates. Even before the convention began, the main principle laid down established "the military in the leading role of national politics in the future state." Despite its election landslide in 1990, the NLD was given only 93 out of the 702 seats in the convention. Some time ago, after failing to change its procedures, the NLD walked out in protest.

On several occasions the military authorities have actually met with the NLD. However, Suu Kyi was permitted at only two of these meetings, both while she was under house arrest in 1994. At recent meetings, which the military rulers have referred to as dialogue, they spent the whole session berating NLD officials for their party's activities. The generals called on the NLD to meet with them on August 8, refusing, however, to meet the party's top three leaders. Understandably, the NLD turned down this offer.

Dialogue that brings together only the junta and the NLD, however meaningful, will never be sufficient to solve Burma#s problems. The ethnic opposition must be included in any future settlement. Ethnic conflict has been one of Burma's longest running and deepest rooted problems. Minority groups make up a huge percentage of the population, and a stable, democratic Burma cannot exist without the inclusion of their aspirations.

The Army's refusal to talk to NLD leaders shows that it still has no intention of discussing the real issues. In fact indications are that the military intends to hang on till the bitter end. Troops have been brought in from provincial areas, special riot units have been organized, and there have been blanket arrests of opposition members, and deployment of security forces around NLD offices. It has even been reported that a special cell in Insein Prison has been prepared for Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi remains defiant, and the opposition is ready to bring the struggle to a new level. Their patience is running out, and optimism, while not high, is higher than it has been since the 1990 election. The tension is almost palpable and the cards seem set for an explosion; a scenario which would be favorable for neither party. In the words of Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma has to choose between dialogue or utter devastation.