Press Statement May 24, 2000
In order to understand the worsening crisis in Mindanao, one must place it in the context of the plunging popularity of Joseph Estrada. There was a need to create a war situation in Mindanao for two urgent reasons: 1) to divert the people's attention from the ineptitude and rotteness of a drifting and directionless Estrada regime. 2) to rally the people behind Estrada's crusade against the MILF "infidels". Its aim is to project him as "saviour" of the nation through his "one nation, one Constitution" incantations that, hopefully, would restore his former popularity.
The "military solution to a military problem" scenario raises the following implication: 1) military hardliners have the upperhand in the decision-making process on the handling of the Mindanao problem; 2) because he personally benefits from a diversionary war situation, Estrada merely reponds to the initiatives of the military hardliners as a nominal commander-in-chief; and 3) the military hierarchy is trying to prove a point, i.e. that sheer military action can "degrade" the enemy's combat capability and eventually force the MILF to capitulate.
The Esrada regime's recognition and identification of the Mindanao conflict as a military problem betrays its gross ignorance of the deeply embedded social and historical roots of conflict.
Furthermore, it underestimates the staggering cost of an all-out war in terms of large military expenditures, high military and civilian casualties, destruction of towns and communities, displacement of hundreds of thousands of civilians, mounting human rights violations, disruption of agricultural production and commercial activities, and dissipation of scarce and critical funds and resources in a self-destructive and open-ended war. Given this dismal situation it is virtually impossible for GRP forces to gain the support of the people who are at adversely affected by Estrada's military misadventure.
The redeployment of thousands of troops from Luzon and Visayas to Mindanao indicates that the regime is serious in pursuing a military solution in the region. One may ask, for what purpose and objective?
Is it the total destruction of MILF forces?
Is it to inflict maximum casualties and material destruction that can force the MILF to capitulate or accept dictated surrender terms?
Is it occupation and control of territory?
The regime seems to believe that sheer numerical superiority in manpower, arms and equipment is the decisive factor in the resolution of the arm conflict. Also, the continuous aerial bombing and artillery shelling will force the enemy to display the white flag of surrender. It tends to underestimate the combat capability, "will to fight" and morale of MILF forces in a "people's war, people's army" form of protracted struggle.
A military solution to deeply rooted social and historical problems in Mindanao and Sulu had already been tried in the past by Spanish colonial and US imperialist forces and their local proxy and mercenary armies. All their efforts have failed to attain the objective of conquest and control of the Moro people.
The Estrada regime suffers from a delusion that through an ill-defined and open-ended war, its "brilliant" defense secretary and generals can succeed where previous military commanders have miserably failed. We maintain that given the present critical state of the nation an all-out war against the Moro people is not only self-destructive but also unwinnable.
Kalinaw Mindanao offers the unsolicited proposal that for the advancement of the nation and well-being of the people, the Estrada regime should take the initiative in resuming peace talks with the MILF and all other parties in the present conflict. #
* Vizmanos is Chairperson of the Samahan ng mga Ex-Detainee Laban sa Detensyon at Para sa Amnestiya (Selda) and National Council Member of Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan). He is also the military consultant of the Nuclear-Free Philippines Coalition (NFPC).