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ARTICLE 3
RUNNING STYLES
by Grant Pilling
Grant can be contacted by Email.
RUNNING STYLES
When you have developed your first set of "raw expected ratings" your next step is to consider Running styles.
Running Styles is perhaps the third area of importance after you have considered "speed & class".
I have found this is where you start filtering the "active" chances in a race.
Running Styles is a 2-part approach it is as follows;
Ill concentrate on the 2nd category as this is the one that is normally neglected by the "norm" punter. Investors who keep formguides or databases will have the information required to develop Running styles at their finger-tips.
What I now do is categories each dog in each race into one of the following categories.
But first find a couple of your old formguides or browse your data base it needs to contain "call positions" in the run, most good formguides now provide this information, the "call" describes where a dog is placed at certain points of a race. If it was leading at the first bend it would be given a 1, if it was last at the turn into the home straight it is given an 8 and so on.
What I then do is isolate the starts a dog placed first or second, or if it finished within 2.5 lengths of the winner.
Straight away you will notice a few patterns emerging, either the dog was racing close to the lead 1-2 or it was constantly in 6-7-8 positions or it was a LAW (lead all way) dog or it totally mixed it performances, the latter is rare but it does occur.
From this information you can immediately catergorise the dog into a favoured running style ie "closer or "front runner".
By recording this information next to each dog, you can start to make judgement on its relative chances, to further refine this method a quick look of common sectional times will give you a picture of where each dog shall be positioned at the first turn.
A further method is, if you have a database of "calls" you can avg. the difference of the first turn "calls" and the finish "call" what you now have is a figure that is a negative or a positive. This will allow you to develop an even better picture of how dogs will move past each other during a race.
Now when you combine all of the above methods you have a "filter" that is quite powerful.
Example = If a dogs favored position is 1 or 2 at the first turn and it has a negative "call" figure and its Sectional time is 5th quickest you can be sure the dog will be at a disadvantage in "todays" race.
I hope I have given you food for thought, so when you assess your next race you look at the data in a different way.
Cheers