VIC-GREYHOUNDS.COM
AUSTRALIAN GREYHOUND RACING RATINGS
Your Gateway to Greyhound Racing Punting Resources, Victoria, Australia.
(Established on the Internet since 1995)
 

THE KELLY CRITERIA

The Kelly Criteria is a method of Staking a Percentage of your Bank that relates to your Strike Rate and Average Win Dividend.

If you wish it can be used in conjunction with our other 2 suggested methods of the 'Ratings Staker' and our 'Doubles Betting' or used as a stand alone method to set a bet size that may see your wagering to a further advantage.

To employ Kelly's principles effectively one needs to be sure of these 2 values.

The Formula for Kelly Criteria is as follows:

= Win SR% - (Loss SR% divided by Average Dividend)

[Note: To get Loss Strike Rate, subtract Win Strike Rate from 100]

Let's work thru an example using some figures.

Strike Rate = 34%
Loss Strike Rate = 66%
Average Win Dividend = $3.10

So the bet level is calculated by Kelly's Formula:

Bet Amount = 34 minus ( 66 divided by 3.1 )
Bet Amount = 12.70968
Bet Amount = 12% of your Bank (rounded down)
So if your Bank is $100 your first bet is $12.

People generally apply Kelly Criteria with value of the 'original bank' (i.e. $100) and some modify the percentage accordingly
to the value of the 'current bank' adjusting the level after a win or loss.
So if you win and your Bank increases then your 12% stake will be higher.
If you lose your 12% stake would be less.

Note: You should also allow for enough Banks to go broke to absorb expected run of outs that one might expect,
taking into account the Strike Rate and Average Win Dividend of your chosen approach.
Please see 'Handling Losing Sequences' Link under 'Staking' on this Website for more information on this.
 

Some further reading on Kelly Criteria.
1. Link 1
2. Link 2

I also have a rare copy of Kelly's original Paper on this in a PDF* File.
Click here if you are interested.
*(Note: You will need the free Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the document)