First order of business is to explain why the AFL allowed twelve out of seventeen teams to qualify for the post-season. The reasons are understandable. Quite simply, the AFL is not concerned with just the 2000 season, this new twelve-team format was devised to allow for the booming expansion on the Arena horizon. Next year, there should be at least 20 teams and within three years, there may be close to thrity teams in the AFL. The league is just positioning itself for expansion. Plus, it doesn't hurt to show the NFL that the Arena League is ready to grown in leaps and bounds. And because of this, the New Jersey Red Dogs still have a chance to make it to the big dance despite having an embarrassing 3-9 record, the worst in team history.

The second order of business is to accept the fact that the Dogs have this gift from the league and examine how they can make the playoffs. Of the available twelve post-season berths, nine have been secured. That leaves three up for grabs. The three teams with the inside track for those final seats are Grand Rapids (5-7), Milwaukee (5-7) and Buffalo (4-8). New Jersey holds the tie-breakers over Grand Rapids and Milwaukee, so to catch either of those two, the Red Dogs would have to win both of their next two games over Carolina (3-9) and Florida (2-10). That is quite possible and we'll look at the Carolina match-up in a minute. But to overtake Grand Rapids or Milwaukee, New Jersey needs either of those teams to lose both of their remaining two games. One win by either team will earn that team a lock in the post-season. And then there's Buffalo. Thanks to a 25-point blow out loss two weeks ago to the Destroyers, the Red Dogs lose any tie-breakers with Buffalo. So all the Destroyers need to do is win one game and New Jersey won't be able to catch them. Should Grand Rapids, Milwaukee and Buffalo all win this week, New Jersey will be eliminated regardless of the Carolina/Florida games.

Now, the last order of playoff business... at 3-9, New Jersey does not belong anywhere near the post-season unless they can blow out 3-9 and 2-10 teams.. Like in Buffalo, the Red Dogs fired an ineffective Head Coach during the season. And like in Buffalo, the Dogs have improved their attitude and direction, but like in Buffalo, winning isn't happening over night. Ray Bentley lost his first few games with the Destroyers before they began their current four-game win streak. So it's not surprising that Kevin Guy couldn't get wins right out of the box with his first few games. To Guy's credit, the Dogs played the Seawolves tough, but couldn't put them away. Anyone who may have saw New England get blown out by Arizona last night on TNN could see that the Seawolves are a team that can be put away. But the Dogs couldn't do it. New Jersey still does not have that killer instinct to finish a game.

Consider this statistic. For the first time ever the New Jersey Red Dogs have a losing record within their own division. Even last season with a 6-8 record, the Dogs were 5-1 in the division. This year they are 1-5. And in four of those five losses, the Red Dogs lead each game at halftime and had at least a 14-point lead during the game. But these Dogs blow leads, no matter how big. So do the Dogs deserve to be playing in August? Statistically, you'd have to say no. However, if Kevin Guy's team can finish 2-2 with impressive wins, I say don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Accept the new playoff format and take advantage of it. But New Jersey will need a lot of help and they need to win starting tonight in Carolina.

Here is the game analysis in a sentence...
If the Red Dogs win the takeaway battle, they will win.
Tommy Maddox cannot throw two interceptions and if he does, the Red Dog defensive backs better get those interceptions right back. Last week New England fumbled the ball five times. New Jersey didn't recover a single loose ball and lost. Last night, the Seawolves coughed up the ball five times again, but Arizona fought harder to get the turnover and blew out New England as a result. New Jersey finally has an explosive offense. After all, they did score 122 points in their two recent losses. The bad news is that the Red Dog defense, once feared in the AFL, has gone considerable south and while the offense was scoring 122 points, the defense allowed 132 points. And some of those points have to get pinned right back on the offense that has turned the ball over leaving the defense in some impossible situations.