SFL Draft Lottery List
Lottery Odds Current Team Original Team Division
7/33 Ice Wings Ice Wings Random
6/33 Myasis Dragons Myasis Dragons Random
5/33 Two-Edge Sword Oregon Brewed Random
4/33 Schizophrenic Rage Schizophrenic Rage Random
3/33 Two-Edge Sword Mudskippers Random
2/33 Ice Wings 7th Lightfoot Random
1/33 Ice Wings fp2 A
1/33 The Empire The Empire B
1/33 Two-Edge Sword Drunk Monkey Knife Fighters C
1/33 Two-Edge Sword Cerebral Forearm C
1/33 Cerebral Forearm Blue & Orange Crush B
1/33 Two-Edge Sword Two-Edge Sword A
Checked and double checked. The future draft pick page as been double checked and corrected. (fp2's pick was shown in the comments as Cerebral Forearm's. This was changed to Ice Wings to reflect T73. While my notes did not indicate if CF had traded the fp2 or the BOC pick it ended up not making a difference so I moved the most recent acquired.)
Proposed Lottery Change
Current System Percentage Order of Finish Proposed Change Percentage
7/33 21.2% 12th 6/23 26.1%
6/33 18.2% 11th 5/23 22.7%
5/33 15.2% 10th 4/23 17.4%
4/33 12.1% 9th 3/23 13.0%
3/33 9.1% 8th 2/23 8.7%
2/33 6.1% 7th 1/23 4.3%
1/33 3.0% 6th 1/23 4.3%
1/33 3.0% 5th 1/23 4.3%
1/33 3.0% 4th 9th Pick N/A
1/33 3.0% 3rd 10th Pick N/A
1/33 3.0% 2nd 11th Pick N/A
1/33 3.0% 1st 12th Pick N/A
The second change is how the top six teams (by order of finish) are determined. The teams that lose in the first round of the playoffs are the 6th and 5th place teams. The teams that lose in the second round of the playoffs are the 4th and 3rd place teams. The teams in the Championship game are the 2nd and 1st place teams.

The idea behind a lottery is to prevent a team from tanking to get a higher pick. The changes can be grouped into thirds. The bottom third (12th-9th) get a better shot the top pick. The middle third (8th-5th) have their downside limited while they maintain a shot a higher draft position. The top third earned a one-in-four shot at the title, what more do they need?

I haven't given much thought to the second round. There are some excellent prospects available in that round, especially early. Some form of lottery might be a good idea just to shake things up. After the first two rounds though, I think it would be best just to use order of finish and go straight line, worst-to-first.

I'm not sure it would be wise to make these (or any) draft changes effective for the 2004 season but if changes are wanted then I think they should be decided on and written into the rules before any trading begins. Discuss it amongst yourselves, kick it around and the board. I'm just tossing some shit on the wall to see if it sticks.

(page modified 10am eastern 12/02)
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