Recorded history of the Korean peninsula begins with the founding of the Ko-Choson dynasty in 2333 B.C.  By the first century B.C. the succeeding dynasties ruled much of Manchuria and portions of China as well.  This political and military power was however short lived.  As Korea's neighbors, China and Japan developed their economic and military potential, Korea became the natural staging ground in the struggle for dominance of the region.

An outline of major military events on the peninsula in this century is as follows:

Japanese invasion and occupation of Korea in 1910
Conflicts and liberation from Japanese rule during WW II
Partitioning of Korean peninsula by the allies in 1945
North invaded the South on June 25, 1950
North and South Korea are still technically at war but observe a cease fire in accordance with the 1953 armistice.

Korea's history has so ingrained in its culture the need for national defense as a means to peace that the greeting for hello literally means "are you in peace?  – or-- do you come in peace?"  A common Korean proverb distilled from centuries of war and occupation states that when whales fight shrimp's backs are broken.  Koreans have often viewed themselves as the shrimp in the power struggles of the times, anciently between Japan and Korea and more recently between the communist east (USSR/PRC) and the free west (US/NATO).

Since the Korean War, Koreans have expended great effort attempting to become the whales of the metaphor.  Both north and south have built their power through a mandatory military service of all males, and investment in training, research and development.  They have also forged alliances with major powers.

Even with current South Korean Pres. Kim Dae Jung's policy of openness and negotiation, tensions on the DMZ remain high. In the last year alone 3 North Korean submarines have been sunk or captured in South Korean waters and serious standoffs have occurred with surface vessels.

South Korea has prospered economically under a free market system and has used economic might and political will to build up a formidable conventional military.  Its missile capabilities are very limited however.  In accordance with a 1979 agreement with the US, South Korea's current maximum missile range is 180 km.  In a meeting with US officials in July 1999, the South Korean government indicated that in light of recent developments it was considering developing an new missile with a possible range of 500 km.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) maintained a well trained and equipped conventional military until the demise of the Soviet Union and the natural disasters of the mid 1990's.  Since the devastating floods of 1995 and 1996, most North Koreans have been reduced to near starvation.  The conventional military apparatus has had such difficulty obtaining spare parts that one reporter stated that he saw more military vehicles broken down along side of the road than in operation.

Despite the economically devastating conditions, North Korea's nuclear missile and special operations programs have continued to grow. Since the early 1970's, Pakistan and North Korea have exchanged, traded, and cooperatively engaged in espionage to obtain missile and nuclear technology. The two countries have also exported portions of this technology to countries such as Egypt, Libia, Syria, Iran, and Iraq.

There is evidence that North Korea has provided missile technology, explosives and weapons to Pakistan.  Pakistan, in turn, has provided North Korea with nuclear technology, information about and examples of US technology used in the Afghan war, raw materials, and cash.  This exchange has taken place with the tacit and sometimes active support of the PRC.  The launch system for the Pakistani Ghauri missile is built on the same model as the Nodong 2 missile launcher.  Pakistan has used several other North Korean missile components in a simmilar manner. In 1994 the Korean Broadcasting Service reported that three nuclear physicists from Seoul University, the nation's top school, were missing and believed to have defected to the DPRK.  North Korea displays the propensity towards and has had more than ample time and resources to develop a nuclear inventory.  There are many indications that it has done so.

Despite a 1994 agreement to halt nuclear weapons research and allow inspections of suspected sites in exchange for light water reactors built by the US and South Korea, the DPRK has repeatedly denied access and subsequently stalled planned inspections of suspected nuclear research and production sites.  This agreement does not restrict missile development and does not affect any nuclear weapons North Korea possessed beforehand.

North Korea has produced 7 new missile designs since 1981, increasing the maximum range of their inventory from *300 km to 4000 km. (See table.)  Note that three new missile designs –including the first ICBM-- have been produced since the ban on nuclear research was implemented.  A new ICBM design, the Taep'o-dong 2,  is expected to be on line by 2000 with a projected maximum range of over 6000 km.

North Korea has launched at least two ballistic missiles: a Nodong1 was fired over the Japanese islands in 1993 and a Taepo-dong 1 SLV was launched over Japan last August. The DPRK characterized both firings as failed propaganda satellite launches.  If it wishes to validate its new delivery system, the Taepo-dong 2,  North Korea will need to make another such launch.

Within the last week, Sec. Defense William Cohen and Sec. State Madeline Albright have both made statements urging North Korea to refrain from further launches and hinting that such launches may affect aid promised to the country.  Japan also stated that 1 billion dollars in promised aid would be withheld if any ballistic missile launches do take place.  In response, China has warned the international community not to make provocative statements regarding the matter.

In summary, despite severe economic distress and conventional military decline, North Korea is likely to have nuclear capability, possesses ICBMs, and is rapidly improving the range of its missile inventory.

Additional Information since the writing of this article:
North Korea Prepares for Rocket Launch 09Aug99
North Korean Missile Is Ready 11Aug99