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Return home to find a communication from the UK Independence Party on my doormat. Purple and yellow are the dominant colours of the tri-folded A4 leaflet. Frontispiece is a picture of Great Britain (no Ireland) split into bits, with London dredged out. "We're losing Britain bit by bit" is the claim - "Join the People's Revolution and help us to get it back" the rallying cry.
Inside is An Urgent Alert. Gosh. What does it say..?
We're British. Whatever our religion, our racial background or our skin colour; as long as we are subjects of this country we're British...and proud of it!
The trouble is that rules and regulations are being made all the time against Britain's interests and our MP's are powerless to help. Why?
Because both Conservative and Labour governments have agreed that European law takes precedence over UK law. The British people now have no choice but to accept rules which are made in Brussels - even though many are bad for Britain.
What use is an elected MP if they don't have the power to say NO to laws that affect us badly? No use at all!
What's more, it's costing Britain a fortune to be in the EU. So what's the answer?
Join the People's Revolution and tell them we've had enough.
Then we see a list of things that are, apparently, all the fault of the EU.
Shoppers must buy in metric. Imported food is "often inferior to British produce". Items cannot be labelled with the country of origin. There's the spectre of the Pensions Levy. And the abolition of Habeus Corpus.
The Common Agricultural Policy has driven farmers to the wall. "The CAP has never helped British farmers and never will." There's a proposed solution here: "a process of deficiency payments and with incentives to buy British produce."
Stated aims: Keep the pound; rebuild farming and fishing; promote British products; promote free and friendly trade with Europe and the world; keep metric and imperial measurements; increase funding for hospitals, schools, agriculture, public services; restore national pride; replace VAT; reduce red tape.
There's a website, joining form, and address (UKIP West Midlands, Unit 4 Tamworth Business Centre, Amber Close, Tamworth, Staffs, B77 4RP)
All jolly good fun. But what does it mean? The incontrovertable stuff. This is not an extremist right wing party. The Alert, and wording on the aims page, makes it clear that white supremacists will find no platform in the UKIP. Neither, it appears, will those who advocate reform of the EU from within. This is the all-or-nothing option.
Now, get picky. "Subjects of this country." Not going to reform the monarchy, or grant de facto UK citizenship.
Metric -vs- imperial measurements is a complete red herring. It panders to the innumeracy that abounds in British society. 454g of grapes is exactly the same as 1lb of grapes. Whether A is 8km or 5 miles from B makes no difference to the length of the journey.
There's a jingoistic undercurrent, that British is best. That may be true of some things, it's demonstrably false in others.
The pensions levy is another red herring. It pre-supposes complete fiscal union, effectively eliminating national governments entirely by subsuming their tax-raising powers centrally. There's no way that will play in Peira-Cava (a small French village near Monaco,) so it won't happen.
Jurisprudence is a worrying trend, as is the EU's attempts to form a soverign police force. These are matters that are causing concern in many countries, and look set to be reformed.
Agriculture: abolishing the CAP is probably the single biggest reforming step that can be taken. It's corrupt, promotes industrial-scale farms at the expense of small holdings, and is the root cause of much of the problems that foot and mouth has caused. But let's go further. Why subsidise farmers at all? If their produce is as good as the UKIP implies, it will command a premium on the market, and will boost exports, allowing subsidies to be removed sharpish. If it's not, then what business does the taxpayer have in supporting another uneconomic industry?
More to the point: what is a deficiency payment? It's not mentioned in Alain Anderton's economics bible. And surely "incentive" is another word for "subsidy."
Questions arising: The UKIP pledges to increase public sector spending - the money will come from leaving the EU, apparently. But what happens if there's an economic slowdown as a direct result?
Already, the UKIP is pledged to give subsidies to the inefficient farming industry. Is there not a grave danger that EU payments will turn into UK-originated subsidy, leaving the Treasury no better off?
Similarly, the UKIP promises that red tape will be reduced. How will this be done without adversely affecting consumer protection?
VAT will go, and be replaced by "a fair" tax. How is VAT unfair?
How will these measures actually increase national pride without feeding the jingoistic, British-is-best sentiment that powers so many racist attacks?
Time to find an email address and submit these questions...
Tony Blair calls a special cabinet meeting to plan his campaign.
Time for the opening table. Seats won at the last General Election; seats now; and projections based on the central figures of leading spread betting agencies.
| Party | 1997 | Now | Projected |
| Labour | 419 | 419 | 392 |
| Conservative | 165 | 159 | 199 |
| Lib Dems | 46 | 47 | 37.5 |
| SNP | 6 | 6 | 8.5 |
| PC | 4 | 4 | -- |
| Ind | 1 | 4 | -- |
| NI | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Overall Majority | 179 | 179 | 125 |
Bang! Tony Blair announces the election. It comes not in the traditional location, outside Downing Street, but in a school hall in South London. Blair is joined in a school hall photo-op by Charles Kennedy (Lib Dem, Orange Party). Kids look good, they're cute, and they concentrate the mind on education. Opposition leader William Hague (Conservative, Blue Party) visits marginals in Taunton (LD) and Watford (Lab)
Columnists Peter Wilby (Evening Standard, London) is unimpressed with modern politicians.
The intention of a modern General Election campaign is to fudge everything. Politicians - no, not even politicians, just those who happen to get into the Cabinet - - are to make the big choices; our role is merely to choose those with the most plausible manner. You can sum up this election in three short sentences. Labour: "Well, you're all a lot better off, aren't you?" Conservatives: "You'd be even better off if we were running the country." Both parties: "Make your minds up, and then leave it to us."
In The Times, Mick Hume offers some fortune-cookie hints for politicians who want to inspire...
A general election is for grown-ups, not sulky adolescents.
Make politics a political football.
Can we have fewer laws, not more?
Hard cases make bad law.
Don't just listen, lead.
Worcester's View: Bob Worcester, veteran chair of top opinion pollsters MORI, predicts 50 Conservative gains - 35 from Labour, 15 from LD - leaving a Lab OM just in three figures.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | 1997 | Now | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 419 | 419 | 395.5 | +3.5 |
| Conservative | 165 | 159 | 196.5 | -2.5 |
| Lib Dems | 46 | 47 | 38 | +0.5 |
| SNP | 6 | 6 | 8.25 | -0.25 |
| PC | 4 | 4 | -- | -- |
| Ind | 1 | 4 | -- | -- |
| NI | 18 | 18 | 18 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 179 | 179 | 135 | +10 |
In A Nutshell Blair, Hague, Kennedy: Prime Minister's Questions, Commons. No score draw.
Brown: Economic goals speech, London. This government will never take stability for granted.
Prescott: On the battle bus, Cornwall.
Hague: Unveiling posters, Battersea Park, London. Never has a party taxed so much and delivered so little.
Ancram: Unveiling a poster for Tesco, Glasgow. It's the wrong poster, stupid.
Kennedy: Norwich, Birmingham, Bristol, Southampton. Five marginals in one day.
Son Of Pledge Card After coming up 3/5 on their last Pledge Card, Labour threw their next one onto the market. It's nothing earth-shattering at all:
* Mortgages as low as possible, low inflation and sound public finances
* 10,000 extra teachers and higher standards in secondary schools
* 20,000 extra nurses and 10,000 extra doctors in a reformed NHS
* 6,000 extra recruits to raise police numbers to their highest level yet
* Pensioners' winter fuel payment retained, minimum wage rising to £4.20.
So...
Low inflation is a more important goal than strong, sustainable growth. Thanks for making that clear.
Government admits it has problems in teacher recruitment, and that its education reforms in secondary schools have been a failure. No pledge to bring back the assisted places scheme.
The NHS is still failing to live up to expectations. What's news?
6000 police recruits won't address the underlying lack of respect in the wider community.
There's no real quibble about winter fuel or the minimum wage.
Getting Worse, Says Public: Most of Britain's front-line public services are thought to have got worse rather than better under Labour, according to an NOP poll. The weekend survey for Channel 4's Powerhouse programme gave these figures:
Schools: 31% improved; 26% worse; 26% remained the same.
Police service: 21% improved; 28% worse; 40% stayed the same.
Health: 22% improved; 36% got worse; 37% stayed the same.
Public transport: 19% improved; 47% got worse; 23% static.
A government's record on public services is only part of the election mosaic. Management of the economy matters; so does the reputation of the opposition.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Now | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 419 | 397.5 | +2 |
| Conservative | 159 | 193.5 | -3 |
| Lib Dems | 47 | 37 | -1 |
| SNP | 6 | 8.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 179 | 138.5 | +3.5 |
Money continues to flow to Labour, and away from the Tories. There's been a 5.5 seat swing to the government in the past two days alone.
The Luxury Of Being Unelectable. This is not the name of the Conservative party manifesto, unveiled today, but it is the underlying message. With the polls showing the Tories on course for another humiliating defeat, the Blue Party's manifesto contains many populist measures that would not be proposed by a party seriously seeking government. Amongst the commitments:
* £8 billion of tax cuts, "setting people free to keep more of their own money."
* Cut fuel duty by 6p per litre.
* Less tax for families, more support for marriage.
* Headteachers, governors free to run their own schools.
* Increase in police numbers.
* Criminals to serve the full sentences handed down.
* Public spending not to rise faster than economic growth.
* Less red tape for businesses.
* Outright rejection of full membership of the European Currency Unit.
* More money for the NHS
* Tax breaks on private medical insurance.
* Allowing young workers to opt out of the state pension system.
* Global free trade by 2020.
* No further transfers of power to the EU.
* Office of Civil Society to champion families, voluntary organisations and faith communities.
* Regeneration for the inner cities.
* Cuts for rural business rates.
* Endowments for arts organisations.
* More support for sport.
* Privatise Channel 4, and simplify broadcasting regulation.
* Transfer power away from Westminster to local councils.
* Referenda on large local council spending plans.
* Axing of regional government in England.
* Resolve the West Lothian Question against Scotland.
(Phew.)
Labour claims there's a £6 billion funding gap there; the Lib Dems say that this is the manifesto of a party that knows they're not getting in. (Have they been nicking my headlines again?)
So... 6p off fuel duty won't necessarily mean 6p off at the pumps. It could go to the oil companies' profit sheets, like Gordon Brown's recent 1p cut.
Pensions opt-outs is an interesting idea, though one that was floated by the Tories just before the last election. It would reduce income in the short term, but would also reduce total expenditure over the very long term, allowing for borrowing to be reduced. Labour claims that this will amount to privatising the state pension; this is palpable nonsense and scaremongering from the Reds.
The return of state-funded independent schools is symbolic of the divide between the two parties. The Tories think that there's no logical space for the Local Education Authority. Under reforms from 1988, around 1200 schools left LEA control, and took total control of their own destinies. The exit has been stopped, but these schools have not returned to LEA control under Labour. There are those who think that head teachers are best-placed to judge where their budget should be spent; there are others who reckon that some economies of scale can be made by schools in an area banding together.
The Office of Civil Society is pretty much a straight theft from the Republican platform at the 2000 US election. That ticket lost.
I like controls on local government, which does seem to be a law unto itself. Many cities have been one-party states for the past 20 years or so, and the party has grown sloth-like and inefficient. Similarly, the democratic deficit of devolution is resolved: Scottish MPs will be barred from voting on specifically English issues.
Making arts organisations self-funding will require a huge initial capital flow, and gives the impression that the government doesn't see art as a good thing in itself. This is a message re-inforced by the plan to sell off Channel 4.
What's missing? No return of Major's 1994 plan to sell the Post Office - that was given the boot by a first-rate campaign in Tory marginals. BBC Enterprises will stay part of the corporation, returning profits to the license fee, not shareholders. Air traffic control is another grey area - 50% will be sold off by the current government, but that leads 50% in public holding. No mention either of nursery education - vouchers providing education for four-year-olds were killed by the incoming Blair administration, and there's no plan to resurrect them.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Going | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 419 | 396.5 | -1 |
| Conservative | 159 | 192.5 | -1 |
| Lib Dems | 47 | 38 | +1 |
| SNP | 6 | 8.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 179 | 136 | -2.5 |
Strange and contradictory movements. Last time, the launch of the Tory manifesto was worth a 4 seat gain. This time, it's a one seat drop. Labour also drops, and the majority suggests they're dropping slightly faster. Money flows to the Lib Dems, who are back at their highest ever index - 38 was the average on polling day 97.
When in doubt, leave the planet. On the day the government announces a fall in NHS waiting lists and promised not to raise income tax, Labour is accused of making unrealistic political claims. Liberal Democrat leader, Charles Kennedy, said its concentration on waiting lists had "skewed" waiting times, which were more important to patients. He said Labour was being "timid" over its income tax pledge and accused it of suffering from a "terrible poverty of ambition".
Figures published today showed that the number of people waiting for inpatient NHS treatment in England fell by 26,100 to 1,006,600 in March. This matched a 1997 election promise to take 100,000 people off the inpatient total in the first term of a Labour government. The current NHS waiting list figures do not include outpatients - the so-called waiting list to get on the waiting list.
Liam Fox (C, health) said the government had put politics ahead of patients. "Patients should believe their own experiences - not Labour's fiddled figures.. Labour is still more obsessed with spin doctors than doctors."
Priority #1 Tony Blair (Lab, leader) said the economy was the "single most important thing" in the election campaign, and warned that Tory tax cuts would lead to a return to economic instability and underfunding of the NHS. He said that Labour could fund its public spending plans by reducing the national debt, and denied that the government would find it impossible to follow them through in a second term.
Independent analysts suggest this isn't so, and that there could be a hole in the finances from the fourth year of the next parliament.
Tax and/or spend At the launch of his party's Scottish manifesto, William Hague (C, leader) threw down a challenge to pledge not to increase the tax burden at all. "I challenge him today to say that he will not increase taxes at all, and if he is not prepared to say that, everyone will know he plans yet more stealth taxes on the people of Britain."
Michael Portillo (C, finance) had earlier defended the Tories' manifesto pledge to offer £8bn worth of tax cuts in the next two years. "The sums add up. They are all set out in the manifesto. They enable us to offer huge tax savings to people trying to save, huge tax savings to pensioners and to families," he said.
Leaks from Labour to the BBC suggest that the party will, indeed, make a pledge not to raise income tax over the next parliament. Confirmation is expected in the party manifesto, next week.
Columnists Rory Bremner, Evening Standard.
What is so disillusioning is the poverty of the politics. The lack of ambition. The talk of sending signals and taking soundings. Sometimes I see Blair and Hague standing back to back like two duellists, Blair desperately trying to appeal to his supporters on the Left as Hague tries to reassure his on the Right. They'd each like to head off in opposite directions, but you see, they can't. Not if they want to get elected. And that, as we now know, is what Labour wants more than anything else.
New Labour is in the numbers game. When foot and mouth was first announced, I was talking to a New Labour spin doctor who dismissed talk of a crisis by telling me farming amounted to only 0.8 per cent of the economy. I didn't realise at the time, but that comment tells you all you need to know about New Labour thinking. It also explains why it only really woke up to the problem when it started to hit the tourist industry (annual income: £60 billion).
I don't think it's right to equate surprise at Labour's abandonment of previously stated principles with cynicism. After all, did we really vote to privatise air traffic and London Transport? Did we really vote to introduce tuition fees and curtail trial by jury? Is it being cynical to expect that New Labour would have a prouder record than the fact that they have actually spent proportionately less than the Conservatives on public services? And is it not a peculiar form of social justice whose reforms manage to hit the most vulnerable - pensioners and the disabled?
Don't judge us against perfection, says Tony. OK, but we at least hoped that they'd benefit from comparison with the Conservatives. As it is, we swapped Hamilton for Robinson and Archer for Mandelson: from a dog with two dicks to a dick with two dogs.
Tony Blair constantly talks of tough choices. It says something for the state of our politics that one of the "toughest" choices was when to hold the election. But when it came to a really tough choice, between slaughtering hundreds of thousands of healthy animals or upsetting the (unrepresentative) NFU by opting for vaccination, guess which way he went? And, incidentally, where was Labour's animal lobby while the slaughter was going on?
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Going | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 419 | 395.5 | -1 |
| Conservative | 159 | 193.5 | +1 |
| Lib Dems | 47 | 38 | -- |
| SNP | 6 | 8.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 179 | 136 | ---- |
Slightly more sense; the punditocracy reckons that the Tories have had the better of the opening few days of the campaign, and this is the first sign that money is beginning to flow in that direction. The trend over the week is still strongly towards Labour, though.
Don't worry, we only have one policy. William Hague raises the roof at a party meeting in Newbury (LD since 1993) by claiming Labour would raise petrol to £6 per gallon. This is about 50% higher than the current figure. He stated that there was a massive hole in Labour's (unpublished) spending plans, and if it all came from petrol duty, that would be the result.
In not entirely unrelated news, there's a resumption of blockades outside petrol depots. The organiser of the illegal demonstration warns that this is just the beginning, and protests would increase in the run-up to the general election.
Oops, I Did It Again: One of the most senior Conservative party members compared the European vision of German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to Hitler’s personal manifesto and said Labour’s tactics on Europe were reminiscent of the Nazis. Sir Peter Tapsell, (C, Louth & Horncastle) who nominated Mr Hague for the leadership in 1997, predicted that the British people would rise in an “explosion of rage” against the European Union.
He listed Napoleon, Bismarck and Hitler as leaders in the past who had proposed a European single currency and said that Tony Blair’s “prepare and decide” policy on the euro was akin to Goebbels’s “Big Lie” propaganda strategy. Calling for a renegotiation of Britain’s relationship with Europe, Sir Peter said: “We may not have studied Hitler’s Mein Kampf in time but, by heaven, there is no excuse for us not studying the Schröder Plan now. You may be sure that the currency section of Dr Goebbels’ Guide to Falsehood is already well thumbed by the Labour spin-doctors.”
The punditocracy: "Tony Blair fired the starting pistol for the general election campaign on Tuesday, but then appeared to forget to join the race," says a collective in Het Grauniad. The Conservatives have certainly started very quickly, but have they the legs and the energy to maintain this pace throughout the four weeks of the campaign? Hague's targets: freedom, family, taxes, crime, red tape - emulate the unsuccessful US Republican party.
There's unanimity that Blair's hijacking of St Mary And St Olave's School to launch the campaign came over as a PR disaster. This school, lest we forget, was rejected by Harriet Harman for her daughter some years ago.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 395 | -0.5 |
| Conservative | 193 | -0.5 |
| Lib Dems | 38 | -- |
| SNP | 8.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 136 | ---- |
Blair's First Speech A re-elected Labour government would strive to extend opportunity to all, Prime Minister Tony Blair promises. Freeing people from barriers that prevent them achieving their potential and living fulfilling lives is what motivates his political ambitions, apparently. No mention of retaining the key to number 10 over the body of Gordon Brown.
Blair told his constituency audience that Labour is the true party of aspiration, of opportunity, dedicated to creating a genuine meritocratic Britain where people can get to the highest level their talents take them. Then be taxed for every last penny they've gained, and some more.
"As long as there is one child still in poverty in Britain, one pensioner still in poverty, one person denied their chance in life, there is one MP from Sedgefield, one Prime Minister and one party that will have no rest, no vanity in achievement, no sense of mission completed - until they, too, are free." Our Babelfish was unable to turn this statement into English.
Blair justified the tight control on public spending in the first years of his government, saying that it had been necessary to create economic stability, and looked forward to further radical reform of public services during a second Labour term. "We were tougher than the Tories would ever have been in cutting the deficit, but for a good reason. A wealthy family can afford a recession. A family trying to plan ahead, with all the pressures of everyday life, can't afford violent swings of the economic cycle."
Kennedy speaks Charles Kennedy (LD, leader) also delivered a keynote speech today. He slammed the government for failing to live up to the standards of previous reforming administrations. Kennedy made a direct appeal to one-nation Conservatives, edged out of the party by Hague's rightward push.
Open Parachute Tory defector Shaun Woodward (C -> L, Witney) is selected as parliamentary candidate for the safe Labour seat of St Helens South. After second-preference votes were counted Woodward defeated Trafford councillor Barbara Keeley by four votes, 81 - 77.
Today's State Of The Parties
| Party | Projected | Change |
| Labour | 394.5 | -0.5 |
| Conservative | 193 | -- |
| Lib Dems | 38 | -- |
| SNP | 8.25 | -- |
| Overall Majority | 136 | ---- |
Labour, Conservatives accurate to nearest 0.5 seat; LD and SNP to nearest 0.25 seat; majority to nearest whole seat.