Outmigration - Weaver

Down and down

Jeffrey Simpson

From the Globe and Mail, November 10

The slow drift of people from outports to urban Newfoundland or to the rest of Canada did not stop.
David Blackwood, the brilliant Newfoundland artist, once produced an arresting print, Resettlement , depicting an outport family in a boat piled high with their possessions heading out on a forbidding sea toward some place they did not know and to which they did not wish to go.

The family was among those "resettled" in the brief effort by then premier Joey Smallwood to close tiny outports and relocate people in somewhat larger communities. The Blackwood print captured the family's anguish, anger and sense of no longer being master of its own fate.

Mr. Smallwood's "resettlement" program died in the fires of political fury, but the slow voluntary drift of people from outports to urban Newfoundland or to "away" -- that is, the rest of Canada -- did not stop.

All through the 1970s and 1980s, Newfoundlanders left rural Newfoundland for larger centres, notably St. John's, or for "away." In those decades, about 3,700 people a year on average left the province; since 1993, however, that outmigration has doubled, then almost tripled. In the fiscal year 1997-98, the net outward migration reached about 11,000, bringing to about 50,000 the outmigration so far during the 1990s. The moratorium on cod fishing and tighter qualifications for unemployment insurance contributed to the higher outmigration.

Newfoundland, much more secular now and having lost many people in their 20s and 30s, has the lowest fertility rate in Canada. It receives a tiny number of immigrants from other countries. Combine the low fertility rates, negligible immigration from abroad and net outward migration to Canada, and the demographic trend is down, down, down.

Demographic projections are a tricky business. A lot can happen, and often does, to make predictions go askew. But three economists from Hamilton's McMaster University, in a study for the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, projected that, if trends continue, Newfoundland's population in 2036 could be about the same as in 1960: 460,000.

Many of the departed and departing are under 34, with some or a lot of education.
Labour economists might cheer the news. People, after all, are leaving an area of high unemployment for areas with more job opportunities. That's better for the individuals and for national labour markets. Critics of unemployment insurance, with its regionally sensitive benefits, have long complained that UI encouraged people to stay put rather than move, thus hurting national productivity.

The outflow of people and overall population decline, however, leave a trail of problems. Many of the departed and departing are under 34, with some or a lot of education. That deprives Newfoundland of skills, and it leaves the province with the worst ratio of people of working age versus retirees and children -- the so-called "dependency ratio."

The labour force, in other words, declines relative to total population, placing a greater burden on those working to support those who are not, principally the elderly. This worsening "dependency ratio" will occur throughout Atlantic Canada, but will be most acute in Newfoundland, unless the migration pattern changes.

A couple of numbers drive home the point. Today, about 11 per cent of Newfoundlanders are over 65, slightly below the national average of 12.2 per cent. In 2011, when the baby boomers begin to retire, about 14.5 per cent of Newfoundlanders and other Canadians will be over 65. But by 2030-35, 31 per cent of Newfoundland's population will be seniors compared to a national average of 24.5 per cent.

The roads still must be plowed and paved, health care and schooling provided, police protection assured.
Rural populations may decline, but those who remain still demand and require basic government services. If 50 people leave a village of 500, the roads still must be plowed and paved, health care and schooling provided, police protection assured. The same problem exists all over rural Canada, but it's especially acute in Newfoundland with its widely scattered coastal communities.

That's why the Newfoundland government has asked Ottawa and the other provinces to agree to place a floor beneath equalization payments. At present, every person who leaves a province costs the government equalization money, but public services still have to be provided for those who stay.

Newfoundland does not want any provinces with declining populations to lose equalization money. Premier Brian Tobin's government has asked federal Finance Minister Paul Martin to include this kind of special provision in his next budget. Whether federal ministers, some of whom are a trifle tired of Newfoundland's numerous requests for help, will agree to this latest one remains an open question.

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Feb 13 99

The slow drift of people from outports to urban Newfoundland or to the rest of Canada did not stop.	David Blackwood, the brilliant Newfoundland artist, once produced an arresting print, Resettlement , depicting an outport family in a boat piled high with their possessions heading out on a forbidding sea toward some place they did not know and to which they did not wish to go. The family was among those "resettled" in the brief effort by then premier Joey Smallwood to close tiny outports and relocate people in somewhat larger communities. The Blackwood print captured the family's anguish, anger and sense of no longer being master of its own fate. Mr. Smallwood's "resettlement" program died in the fires of political fury, but the slow voluntary drift of people from outports to urban Newfoundland or to "away" -- that is, the rest of Canada -- did not stop. All through the 1970s and 1980s, Newfoundlanders left rural Newfoundland for larger centres, notably St. John's, or for "away." In those decades, about 3,700 people a year on average left the province; since 1993, however, that outmigration has doubled, then almost tripled. In the fiscal year 1997-98, the net outward migration reached about 11,000, bringing to about 50,000 the outmigration so far during the 1990s. The moratorium on cod fishing and tighter qualifications for unemployment insurance contributed to the higher outmigration. Newfoundland, much more secular now and having lost many people in their 20s and 30s, has the lowest fertility rate in Canada. It receives a tiny number of immigrants from other countries. Combine the low fertility rates, negligible immigration from abroad and net outward migration to Canada, and the demographic trend is down, down, down. Demographic projections are a tricky business. A lot can happen, and often does, to make predictions go askew. But three economists from Hamilton's McMaster University, in a study for the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies, projected that, if trends continue, Newfoundland's population in 2036 could be about the same as in 1960: 460,000.
Many of the departed and departing are under 34, with some or a lot of education.	Labour economists might cheer the news. People, after all, are leaving an area of high unemployment for areas with more job opportunities. That's better for the individuals and for national labour markets. Critics of unemployment insurance, with its regionally sensitive benefits, have long complained that UI encouraged people to stay put rather than move, thus hurting national productivity. The outflow of people and overall population decline, however, leave a trail of problems. Many of the departed and departing are under 34, with some or a lot of education. That deprives Newfoundland of skills, and it leaves the province with the worst ratio of people of working age versus retirees and children -- the so-called "dependency ratio." The labour force, in other words, declines relative to total population, placing a greater burden on those working to support those who are not, principally the elderly. This worsening "dependency ratio" will occur throughout Atlantic Canada, but will be most acute in Newfoundland, unless the migration pattern changes. A couple of numbers drive home the point. Today, about 11 per cent of Newfoundlanders are over 65, slightly below the national average of 12.2 per cent. In 2011, when the baby boomers begin to retire, about 14.5 per cent of Newfoundlanders and other Canadians will be over 65. But by 2030-35, 31 per cent of Newfoundland's population will be seniors compared to a national average of 24.5 per cent.
The roads still must be plowed and paved, health care and schooling provided, police protection assured.	Rural populations may decline, but those who remain still demand and require basic government services. If 50 people leave a village of 500, the roads still must be plowed and paved, health care and schooling provided, police protection assured. The same problem exists all over rural Canada, but it's especially acute in Newfoundland with its widely scattered coastal communities. That's why the Newfoundland government has asked Ottawa and the other provinces to agree to place a floor beneath equalization payments. At present, every person who leaves a province costs the government equalization money, but public services still have to be provided for those who stay. Newfoundland does not want any provinces with declining populations to lose equalization money. Premier Brian Tobin's government has asked federal Finance Minister Paul Martin to include this kind of special provision in his next budget. Whether federal ministers, some of whom are a trifle tired of Newfoundland's numerous requests for help, will agree to this latest one remains an open question.