With the close run election still undecided four days after polling closed, I wondered what would happen if the Electoral College was appointed by proportional representation, rather than on a winner-takes-all basis.
The version of PR I've used is the D'Hondt method. Let me demonstrate by example:
| Eggland 8 votes | Blue party | Red party | Yellow party | Green party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual vote | 125,000 | 100,000 | 30,000 | 8,000 |
| Vote divided by 3 | 41,667 | 33,333 | 10,000 | 2,667 |
| Vote divided by 5 | 25,000 | 20,000 | 6,000 | 1,600 |
| Vote divided by 7 | 17,857 | 14,286 | 4,286 | 1,143 |
| Vote divided by 9 | 13,889 | 11,111 | 3,333 | 889 |
In the Electoral College, each state has a number of votes. I've computed the results on two different bases:
(a) that all the College votes are allocated under d'Hondt rules; and
(b) that two College votes go to the state winner, with the remainder of the votes allocated under d'Hondt. This reflects the notional composition of the College, two Senators plus a variable number of Representatives.
In the table, the background colour on the state name represents the winner of the state - either Bush (red) or Gore (blue). The only third party candidate to win College votes was Ralph Nader (Green).
Note that this table was compiled on Saturday November 11 at noon (EST). At the time of writing, the state winners in Florida and New Mexico were still to be confirmed.
| Option A | Option B | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State (Votes) | Bush | Gore | Nader | Bush | Gore | Nader |
| Alabama (9) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Alaska (3) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona (8) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Arkansas (6) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| California (54) | 23 | 29 | 2 | 22 | 30 | 2 |
| Colorado (8) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Connecticut (8) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Delaware (3) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Florida (25) | 13 | 12 | 0 | 14 | 11 | 0 |
| Georgia (13) | 7 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
| Hawaii (4) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Idaho (4) | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Illinois (22) | 10 | 12 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| Indiana (12) | 7 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 0 |
| Iowa (7) | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kansas (6) | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Kentucky (8) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Option A | Option B | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State (Votes) | Bush | Gore | Nader | Bush | Gore | Nader |
| Louisiana (9) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 |
| Maine (4) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Maryland (10) | 4 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mass. (12) | 4 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Michegan (18) | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 | 10 | 0 |
| Minnesota (10) | 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Mississippi (7) | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Missouri (11) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Montana (3) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska (5) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Nevada (4) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| New Hampshire (4) | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| New Jersey (15) | 6 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| New Mexico (5) | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| New York (33) | 12 | 20 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 1 |
| North Carolina (14) | 8 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| North Dakota (3) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio (21) | 10 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 0 |
| Option A | Option B | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State (Votes) | Bush | Gore | Nader | Bush | Gore | Nader |
| Oklahoma (8) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Oregon (7) | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Pennsylvania (23) | 11 | 12 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 0 |
| Rhode Island (4) | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| South Carolina (8) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| South Dakota (8) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee (11) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Texas (32) | 19 | 12 | 1 | 20 | 11 | 1 |
| Utah (5) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Vermont (3) | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Washington (11) | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Washington DC (3) | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| West Virginia (5) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Wisconsin (11) | 5 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Wyoming (3) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 264 | 267 | 7 | 273 | 260 | 5 |
So, with a fully proportional Electoral College, Gore's slight victory in the popular vote translates into a slight victory in the College. With a slight bonus for winning a state, though, it's Bush who wins a small overall majority.
Notes: Idaho, Kansas, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and DC split in such a way that the lead candidate picked up the last two seats under pure D'Hondt, and hence didn't gain a seat under the State Winner Takes Two rule (Option 2.)
In Minnesota and Ohio, Nader and Gore took the last two Option 1 seats, and give these to Gore (Minnesota) and Bush (Ohio).
Note that Option 2 must produce a 3-0 result in those states with only three College members.
Ralph Nader came very close to taking College votes in other states: he would have taken seat 24 in Illinois (22); seat 17 in New Jersey (15); seat 24 in Pennsylvania (23); seat 13 in Washington State (11).
Gore's 85% vote in Washington DC (3) meant he would have taken the first 5 seats in the capital; Bush would have seat 6, and Ralph Nader seat 10.
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