Muslim Population Growth Rate Declining

The first column is the world's population growth, the second Islam's population growth, the third is the difference between the two growth rates, and the fourth column is the approximate time it would take for the Muslim portion of the world's population to double, for example, from 20 percent to 40 percent if both the total population and the Muslim population continued to grow at the same rates given in the first two columns.

Time Periods	World	Muslim	Difference	Doubling Time
1970-2000	1.66%	2.61%	.95%	74 years
1990-2000	1.41%	2.13%	.72%	96 years
2000-2006	1.22%	1.9%	.68%	103 years
2000-2025	1.03%	1.64%	.61%	115 years

Clearly the growth rates of both the world's population and the Muslim population are declining, but the Muslim population's growth is declining more quickly and the difference between the world's population growth and Islam's is getting smaller.

As the Muslim portion of the population is about 21 percent, it would take longer for the Muslims to become a majority of the world's population than it would take them to double their portion of the world's population.

Furthermore if the Muslim population growth continues to decline more rapidly than the world's population it would take progressively longer for the Muslims to become a majority.

World Bank Figures Suggest Rapid Decline in Muslim Fertility

For the World as a whole the fertility rate, total births per woman, was 2.6 in 2005.

I don't have statistics on the average fertility rate of Muslims, I suspect they do not exist. So to create a crude estimate I averaged the fertility rates for the nine largest dominately Muslim countries. The list included Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Sudan, Alegeria, and Morocco. The tenth most populous dominately Muslim nation is Afganistan, but the World Bank does not give figures on them. Each of the countries recieved the same weight even though Indonesia the largest has a population more than seven times the population of Morocco, the smallest. Nevertheless, the average fertility per woman for the 9 countries was 2.85. This is a little more than two tenths of a percent above the world average.

Two tenths may not seem like much of a difference, but for the human race to replace itself women must have about 2.3 children, according to a study published in 2006. So the world average was only .3 above replacement level, while the Muslims were .7 above the world replacement level, more than twice as high. I do not know what the replacement level is for Muslims. I suspect no one else does as it is hard to calculate and replacement level statistics are even harder to find than fertility statistics.

Many people believe the replacement level is always 2.1, but actually the replacement level varies over time and for different groups. If no girl died before reproductive age and there was no sex selective abortion then it would take 205 babies to reproduce 100 women. This is because 105 boys are naturally born for every 100 girls. Several years ago about 5 girls died before reproductive age in a rich country so the idea took hold that 2.1, was the replacement level, but 2.08 is closer to the typical figure for advanced industrial nations today. As mentioned above the world figure is 2.3.

I do not know if the world or the Muslims have the higher replacement level. If Muslims are less likely to practice sex selective abortions, which I think they are, that would lower their replacement level. The AIDS epidemic has largely skipped the Muslim nations, which would also lower their replacement level. On the other hand dominately Muslim nations are on average not as rich, and have lower life expectances than the non-Muslim nations outside of sub-Sahara Africa. I do not have any figures on how these factors balance out.

While the Muslim fertility rate is significantly higher it is falling much faster. Between 2000 and 2005 the average fertility of the world fell from 2.7 per woman to 2.6. This is a one tenth of a percent decline. The World Bank did not provide a 2000 figure for Egypt but the average decline in fertility for the eight remaining Muslim countries mentioned above was a little more than .3 over the five year period. If the average decline of these nine dominately Mulim nations is close to the average for all Muslims then the fertility of Muslim women is declining about three times as fast as the world as a whole.

As it turns out in 2006 the average fertility rate for the world fell another tenth of a percent. So the world's fertility rate is falling faster than I estimated using the 2000 to 2005 data. If we estimated that Muslim fertility was falling at twice the rate as the world as a whole this might be fairly close.

The Muslim decline in fertility is a large portion of the whole world's decline which means the non-Muslim decline is even slower. The non-Muslim fertility rate is lower than the world average, but it is also declining more slowly. So the Muslim fertility rates are probably declining about three to four times as fast as the the non-Muslim population growth rates. Of course, a large portion of the non-Muslim world has fertility rates considerably below the replacement level and are trying to increase their fertility. In many of these countries fertility is not declining at all. Several European countries have recently increased their fertility rates.

If the rates of decline we saw from 2000 to 2005 continued for another five years then in 2010 the fertility rate of the Muslim world and the whole world would be about the same. As the Muslim population is much younger it would continue to grow more rapidly than the non-Muslim for some time, but eventually the growth rate of both populations would be the same and the Muslim portion of the world's population would tend to stablize.

As I now see from the 2006 figures that world fertility is declining faster than I thought it might take a little longer than 2010 for Muslim fertility to equal world fertility, but probably only a couple of years.

At about the same time world fertility will be very close to the break even level.

Of course we do not know that the rapidly declining fertility of Muslim women will continue. It would not be surprising if Muslim fertility stabilized at a higher level than non-Muslim fertility. Muslims may maintain a population growth rate somewhat higher than other groups and their percentage of world population might slowly grow.

The most rapid declines in fertility are in those countries that presently have high rates of fertility, this is true for both Muslim and non-Muslim countries. As fertility declines the rate of decline slows. So the differences in fertility are getting smaller. This is true as we compare both particular nations to each other and Islam versus the rest of the world.

A Muslim Majority Is A Long Way Off, If It Ever Comes

One hundred years is a long time in today's technologically dynamic world. We generally figure that the price of computing power will drop by 50 percent every two years. In twenty years it will drop to one thousandth its present price. The current, easy to use Internet with browsers is about fifteen years old. Given the rapid rate of technological change one could reasonably argue that 100 years into the future is far to far for useful prediction.

Those countries that are close to the tipping point where Muslims become fifty percent of the population may have reason to be concerned, but if the Muslims are a small percentage of the total it will take them a long time to gain a majority if their population growth rate is simply two thirds of a percent a year higher.

There has been considerable concern that in Europe where the population growth of the long term native population is negative Muslims will become a majority much more rapidly. I have carefully gone over the Muslim population growth statistics for all the Western European nations in the World Christian Encyclopedia. What I found was that while Muslim population growth was often rapid in the period between 1970 and 1990, it slowed between 1990 and 2000. For more detail you can check my new web page on Muslim population growth in Europe.

Factors That Could Influence Islam's Growth - Economic Progress

Having said that let us look at some of the factors that might influence Muslim growth. Some authorities think Muslims have a higher birthrate simply because they live in poorer nations. There is something to this. The average fertility rate of women living in low and middle income nations was 2.7 in 2005, about half way between the whole world's and the average rate in the ten most populous dominately Muslim nations that the World Bank provided figures for. As only a very small portion of all Muslims live in high income countries it might make sense to compare Muslim population growth to low and middle income countries. In which case we can say that the Muslim and Non-Muslim fertility seems to be about the same.

While it would not be surprising if Muslim population growth continued to be higher even as Muslim incomes rise it seems likely that rising incomes will narrow the difference, this narrowing of the difference can be very important because as I pointed out above it stretches the point where Muslims become a majority way out into the future.

Muslim's Avoid Venereal Disease

But AIDS is only one of many venereal diseases that afflict humanity. If Muslims have avoided AIDS it is a pretty good guess that they have also avoided the others, and it maybe a good guess that AIDS is only one of the medical problems plaguing sub-Sahara Africa. Some of those venereal diseases, like hepatitis C (which I know can be spread by other means) are deadly.

Other venereal diseases, particularly gonorrhea and chlamydia, do not kill but they do cause infertility. I have heard that infertility is far less common in Egypt than America. While about twenty percent of American couples are infertile only ten percent of Egyptian couples are.

The point is that even if Muslims and non-Muslims were trying to have families of the same size the Muslim population might well grow more rapidly.

Some of this Muslim advantage in population growth might be eliminated by technological advance, drugs that cure or vacines that prevent venereal diseases.

On the other hand, venereal diseases are not standing still either. Gonorrhea is progressively becoming immune to more and more antibiotics. Various strains of AIDS are becoming immune to the drug cocktails that hold it in check.

Furthermore, no one talks about it, but it seems possible that a new venereal disease could evolve, perhaps one that is as communicable as gonorrhea or chlamydia, but takes as long to develop and is as deadly as AIDS. A disease like that could kill off a large portion of a generation among the non-Muslim world. If something like that struck the Muslims might find themselves quite quickly in a majority.

In defense of Islam and the Muslims it might be noted that the venereal plagues that are afflicting the world are not their fault. Promiscuous people not only spread venereal diseases they also provide the environment in which new ones evolve. Furthermore, if most of the world's population becomes Muslim some venereal diseases might become extinct.

Sex Selective Abortion

As mentioned above I believe sex selective abortion is more common among non-Muslims. It seems to be particularly common in India and China. So even if Muslims and non-Muslims have the same fertility rate the Muslim population could increase more rapidly.

Islam and Religious Freedom

Of course the treatment of minorities in Muslim societies raises concern among people who are not Muslims. The non-Muslims are frequently limited to second class citizenship, but on the other hand, in many cases the religious minorities have survived for many generations. Recently the non-Muslim minorities have been shrinking rapidly but this usually because they are more likely to immigrate.

One reader pointed out that Muslims ruled Spain and India for 700+ years and that both have non-Muslim majorities. Furthermore, I have noted that it took centuries for the Muslims to become a majority in Egypt.

Will Islam be Embarassed by Falling Behind?

The success of the Christians is not the only difficulty. Muslims also have to deal with the success of Buddhist Japan, and Jewish Israel. For the future Islam will probably face the relative success of China and Hindu India. Its bad enough not being in first place, but last place maybe even harder to take.

Christianity started with a crucified savior and a church that suffered hundred's of years of martyrdom. Islam is much different, Islam started with great success in this world and Muslims are very proud of that early success. In fact Muslims believe so strongly that God provides success in this world to his followers that they claimed that Jesus was not crucified, contradicting six hundred years of Christian teaching. The Muslim belief in this world success for God's people may make it particularly hard for them to take last place in economic development among the world's nations.

Furthermore, money gives other religious groups dominance in producing movies, television, and other media.

But it is not certain that Muslims will fall behind.

Three Reasons Muslims Will Enjoy Economic Success

Second, industrial growth may well move to Muslim counties as wages in China, India, and other non-Muslim countries rise. Even if capitalists have a preference for non-Muslim labor eventually the wage differential will prevail and the industry, and economic growth will go to Muslim nations.

Third, the expense of medicine for AIDS and other venereal diseases could hold other countries back.

Can Islam Survive in Industrialized Society

The Internet and Other New Media

Some Weird Figures You See On the Internet

Also I do not believe the U.N. collects information on religion. I would be very suspicious of any site that is claiming U.N. figures concerning religion, unless they were on a U.N. web site.

In Conclusion

Furthermore, the experts often have professional rules that prevent them from stating obvious truths. For example, thou shall not credit conservative religion or chastity until marriage with the prevention of venereal disease. Thou shall pretend that AIDS is the only venereal disease, or the only one that might affect population growth, and many more. So I hope that I have contributed a few relatively original thoughts, though I admit many of them are more a matter of my willingness to cheat and violate intellectual taboos than any genius or insight on my part.

This page has been recommended in a Pakistani Newspaper's Internet forum. The writer said I was balanced. I thank him.

Feburary 2008 I recieved a message in my guest book that said, "I would like to thank you for bringing up AIDS problem in your page. We should consider our moral values and care about new generations. Im Muslim born and still a Muslim, ..." I would also like to thank this writer.

December 2008 I recieved another message in my guest book that said, "You have probably heard this many times before, but I really appreciate your fairness. I am Muslim and I do research like this often, but usually I come across some fanatic Muslim site boasting ridiculous growth rates or biased anti-Muslim sites denouncing ..." The guest book cut him off after this, but thanks for the message.

Other Pages of Interest

I have just added a web page on Muslim Population Growth in the First World. Is Europe going Muslim? There are some very interesting statistics on this.

I have another page on the future of Christianity, and atheists, agnostics, and other non-believers.

If you want to check the present situation you can see my summary of World Relgious Statistics. At the top of the page I give the information on atheists, agnostics, etc.

I also have a page of links to major sites for religious statistics.

If you are interested in the relative size Christian groups I have a page on that.

My main source for the above is David Barrett's World Christian Encyclopedia. Which is not really Christian or an Encyclopedia. The World Christian Encyclopedia is really a census of all religions. Part of it is on the net, see the links page above.

But Gallop has some interesting statistics too. I found that educated people are less likely to believe, but more likely to attend religious services.

Economic growth may influence the growth of the Muslim population in several ways. I have just put up a page on the economic growth of Third World Countries that may provide some context.

The president of Iran has recently questioned the Holocaust. Yes there was a holocaust and Hitler wanted to kill the Muslims too. If Hitler had succeeded I would not be writing this web page on Muslim population growth because there would not be any Muslims. Of course, there also wouldn't be any me, I have some native American blood.

I have recently added a weak attempt at humor, Islam threatens the biodiversity of AIDS and other venereal diseases. No need to click on it, the link pretty much says it all. It is not getting many clicks, but perhaps it makes its point if the title shows up on a Google search, even if no on bothers to click on it.

You can leave comments in my guest book. If you go much beyond the box it will cut you off. You can use more than one message. If you leave an email address I will probably get back to you.