TPM will be a wild commercial success. The opening weekend itself will be record-breaking, matching the total domestic gross of a typical summer blockbuster. It will certainly be the highest-grossing film of 1999, a highly likely contender for a spot on the top 10 moneymakers of all time, and probably the iceberg that sinks Titanic. A conservative estimate would be US$400 million; a reasonable one would be $600 million; and an optimistic but questionable one would be the first movie to hit a billion domestically.

The fact that this is the most anticipated film of all time guarantees sold-out shows throughout the opening Memorial Day weekend. Those that cannot get tickets, as the show is sold out, get a chance to go a week or two later. Among the spillover would be the fans and sci-fi geeks that see it again and again to catch every detail they can and post it on their own website, which sells out these shows. This continues week after week for at least six weeks, when The Wild, Wild West arrives. My apologies to the Star Wars purists who want it to be the one and only film of the year, but this other movie sounds quite interesting and I'm going to watch it. TPM will undoubtedly remain on top, but this movie is the first to have a chance to grab a sizeable audience. As for Stanley Kubrick's Eyes Wide Shut... well, I'd think a multimillion-dollar porn film would have less success.

As some people, such as those in Canada, do not get off on their holiday until July, TPM will continue to be seen right up until September. And even then, there will be audiences. In theory, it is quite possible that TPM could remain in the number one position for at least fifteen weeks, perhaps more. And it would most certainly surpass Titanic domestically. Internationally, TPM will be successful simply through word-of-mouth from North America. Thanks to the power of the Internet, the Western World is able to recommend the film internationally, which some people undoubtedly will. The domestic records may also partake in boosting the international audiences.

Of course, there are always some problematic people that get in the way of things. I predict that this group will primarily include people who don't want to watch TPM simply because they want to be different, who eventually watch it anyways; and thousands of incomprehensible and nonsensible teenage girls who don't want it to surpass their beloved Titanic. And even these people will watch TPM, just so they don't miss out. So maybe Titanic solved the teenage girl problem every movie has by starring Leonardo DiCaprio. My answer to that? Ewan MacGregor. In late 1997, I certainly did not wish Titanic to surpass our beloved Star Wars, but I watched it anyways -- twice, in fact -- because it was a decent film. The reverse will most likely happen with TPM.

TPM will probably be more successful in commercial respects than Episodes II and III, because it is the one we have waited the longest for. It is also the beginning of a fresh story from and older generation of characters directed at a newer-generation audience. It also generates general interest; some people that watch TPM may (God forbid!) not like it. Then they will not watch the prequel-sequels. That is why ESB and ROTJ grossed progressively less than the original Star Wars, even though it was more than almost any other film can say.

To promote the movie, there must be promotions. There must be merchandise, and we can certainly expect a lot of it. An official Lego fighter ship, a double-edged lightsaber, and an expansion for the collectible card game -- not to mention "the Force fruit drink." This will add to TPM's gain commercially, but it does have its quirks. Personally, I think it is the merchandise and the expanded universe that has drawn so many new-generation fans into Star Wars, as proven by the Special Edition films.