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This year's Academy Award nominees are unbearably icky- my favorite two films of the year were sadly but not surprisingly nominated in few categories and the most inventive movie of 1999, Being John Malkovich, was passed over. Yuck. Going through the list of nominees is like torture for most movie lovers. Questions such as these may arise: "Why is The Green Mile, a blockbuster ditty with no gut, nominated for more than 0 Oscars? (actually, the Duncan nomination is more than justified; it was a very good performance)" and "Why is The Sixth Sense, a mediocre movie with an explosive ending, nominated for six? (the Osment nomination is wonderful; Collette did great things for the atmosphere but was so underused her work hardly warrants a nod; Shyamalan's work as director and writer are not too bad- the script has a smart twist and his direction gives good consideration for tone and mood, but he is underserving)". Anyway, while the public mistakes the AMPAS awards as a true, honest-to-goodness look at quality films, it is actually quite a different story. The Oscars are not built on honoring the best movies. They are built on honoring the best movies that the Academy has heard of, or tame films the Academy wishes to exalt for political or star-power reasons or are emotionally capable of handling.
I am not saying that the Oscars have no meaning because they definitely do. They can make or break careers; they ocassionally shine a light on films the general public may not even have heard of (Tumbleweeds, Boys Don't Cry, The Cider House Rules, the box-office flop The Insider); and, perhaps most importantly, their success is used to fund different causes and charities. Let's not forget that the Oscars are often amazing fun. I have fun every year disagreeing with their picks and watching the show (I don't care that it's a million and ten hours long; like Whoopi said, and I paraphrase, it's a long show so we don't want to read about how long it is. Tough!)
The following are my predictions and picks with some scattered, lazy commentary. Have fun on Sunday!
BEST PICTURE
American Beauty is sure to win. I am certain of this (I think). Despite the parallels with last year, where DreamWorks' Saving Private Ryan lost to Miramax's Shakespeare in Love, I have seen no heavy campaigning for Miramax's 1999 offering, The Cider House Rules, and have seen an uproar of advertising for DreamWorks' Beauty. Academy members would be criticized no end for choosing Cider; it is not well-like by a lot of critics and does not at all represent 1999 or the '90s decade. Sam Mendes and Alan Ball's film is the best in the category, and I think members will see that, no matter how dumb they are. And if any other candidate takes home the gold (I haven't seen The Cider House Rules, an adaptation of a John Irving novel adapted by Irving himself), which is pretty unlikely, I will vomit (figuratively).
BEST ACTOR
The award either belongs to Kevin Spacey or Denzel Washington. Richard Farnsworth gave an amazing performance in The Straight Story and could squeak in for sentimental reasons, and Russell Crowe, who gave the best performance in this category in my opinion, may take one of The Insider's only statues, but what is probably etched in stone is that Sean Penn, as respected and as awesome as he is as an actor, will not win for the underseen Woody Allen movie Sweet and Lowdown, and Kevin or Denzel are the most likely to own the golden man by the time the night is through. I say Spacey will get it, and the Academy will be accused of neglecting African-American actors yet again (no black has won Best Actor since Sidney Poitier won for Lilies of the Field in the '50s; he was the first black man to win Actor and is the only one who has.)
BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening is in the lead, due to her Screen Actor's Guild win, her pregnancy, and Beatty winning the Thalberg, and I loved her performance. But Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry, which I am dying to see, is the critic's darling and it is movie common knowledge that hers was the most critically popular and astonishing Actress performance of year. However, she did play a woman who dressed as a man, and such a role is what AMPAS fears. And we can eliminate McTeer, Moore, and Streep right away (though McTeer and Streep may have ever-so-slim chances, McTeer because of her excellent accent and Golden Globe win, and Streep because she's Streep.) It's between Bening and Swank, and I say it'll be Bening.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is the toughest category, and the one with the worst set of nominees. No John Malkovich or Chris Cooper or Philip Seymour Hoffman? Anyone of these candidates could win, except for Jude Law who has been brighter and better in lesser-known films. Michael Caine took home a Screen Actor's Guild award, but remember that Robert Duvall took home one last year and the Oscar eventually went to James Coburn. Caine may win simply because he's associated with a Best Picture nominee. Then there's Tom Cruise, who was quite remarkable in the sublime Magnolia. They may award him because he's a star and because he hasn't won an Oscar before AND because he won the Golden Globe. Michael Clarke Duncan is campaigning like mad, and he could win one for Best Picture nominee The Green Mile. His was a fantastic, sweet performance. I think the award belongs to Haley Joel Osment. He's a cute little kid (actually, he's not much younger than me) and everyone adores him and he's great in interviews AND his performance in the Best Picture nominee The Sixth Sense was very good and mature and nerve-racking (his turn in Bogus back in 1996 was ten times better). The Academy has never awarded a young boy, but I don't think that's a factor. Back in 1993, Rosie Perez and Winona Ryder were expected to take home the award for Supporting Actress; Anna Paquin, the eloquent young 'un, took home the Oscar for The Piano. It is expected that Caine or Cruise will win this one, but I think Osment will be awarded.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I think it is pretty clear that Angelina Jolie, Jon Voight's daughter and one of the best young actresses around, will get the Oscar for her loud, showy performance in Girl, Interrupted. People say her off-screen lifestyle will deter voters; I have not heard about her questionable behavior and it wouldn't be a factor in my voting. It may be one in Academy voting, though, but Jolie will come ahead, probably with Catherine Keener behind her.
BEST DIRECTOR
Sam Mendes. Who else?
OTHER AWARDS:
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Cider House Rules
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: American Beauty
CINEMATOGRAPHY: American Beauty
ART DIRECTION: Sleepy Hollow (or Anna and the King or The Talented Mr. Ripley)
COSTUME DESIGN: Topsy-Turvy (or Anna and the King)
SCORE: American Beauty (or The Cider House Rules or The Talented Mr. Ripley)
SONG: "When She Loved Me" (or "You'll Be in My Heart")
EDITING: American Beauty
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