For years, scientists have known that the warming of the earth might result in the onset of a new ice age, which would be caused when Arctic ice melted in sufficient quantity to stop the Gulf Stream in its tracks. Estimates of the critical years vary. A rational response, the Kyoto Protocol, which mandates a large-scale development of renewable energy resources, has been opposed by the Bush administration for imposing an enormous financial burden on the United States for the sake of a hypothetical and possibly overblown worst-case scenario. The Day After Tomorrow, directed by Roland Emmerich, tries to dramatize the problem in four ways. One focus is on the scientific evidence. Jack Hall (played by Dennis Quaid), a paleoclimatologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has developed a computer model of the ice age some 10,000 years ago that he wants to apply to the present day. A scientific friend, Professor Terry Rapson (played by Ian Holm), monitors temperatures around the world, based on satellite real-time monitoring of land-based and sea-based thermometers from his computer laboratory in Scotland. Hall on one occasion explains how the world's climatic equilibrium is maintained by the flow of water from the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans, using a simple graphic display model. A second layer of the film is the simulation of what would actually occur if that equilibrium were to end when the melting of Arctic ice passed a critical threshold. Indeed, much of the film consists of special effects showing a breaking up of an Antarctic icepack, a devastating hurricane in Hawai`i, a hailstorm in Tokyo, and tornadoes destroying Los Angeles; but most damage is in Manhattan, including tidal waves and then a snowstorm with a drop in temperature by ten degrees per second until buildings freeze. A third focus is on the human costs. Millions die because they are frozen to death, including members of families who are separated irrevocably from one another. Much suspense centers on how Washington-based Hall tries to rescue his son Sam (played by Jake Gyllenhaal), who happens to be in Manhattan for an academic decathlon, while his physician wife Lucy (played by Sela Ward) attends to a hospital-bound patient in Philadelphia when the power goes out and hospital workers flee south to avoid becoming victims of the storm. Members of the decathlon competition look out for one another in heroic ways. And a homeless man and his dog even play a role along with the brainy children who are hoping to survive on the top floor of the New York Public Library. The fourth theme is political. When Hall presents his climatological thesis to a United Nations conference in New Delhi, amid an unprecedented snowstorm, Vice President Becker (played by Dick Cheney lookalike Kenneth Welsh) scoffs at the thesis and argues that the cost of doing something to forestall a hypothetical disaster would be prohibitive, to which Hall responds that a failure to act now would mean more cost later. Becker then retaliates by a threat to have NOAA's budget cut. Another skeptic is the head of NOAA, who refuses to allow Hall to test his computer model with Rapson's current climatic data on the agency's giant mainframe until signs of disaster become more urgent. Using results of that computer test, Hall hectors the Vice President as he goes into a meeting with President Blake (played by Perry King) to deal with the weather crisis. However, President Blake agrees to a high-level briefing by Hall; then, over Becker's objections, the president asks Hall what measures should be taken to save the United States. Becker next adopts his recommendation--to evacuate all those in the southern United States to México, since those in the northern states have no hope of survival. When México stops the influx of Americans across the border because they are destined to become illegal aliens, the president negotiates a reopening of the border in exchange for canceling the debts of all Latin American countries. Despite the silly rescue plot, The Day After Tomorrow has been nominated by the Political Film Society as best film exposé of 2004 for setting a political agenda, albeit without identifying preventable causes of global warming. MH
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