The 71st Annual Academy Awards


My Picks and Guesses


And the Winners Are...




Welcome to the Oscars!


Here's what I'm going to do: I will show the category, the nominees, who I want to win, who I believe will win, and then who could win. Now that the Oscars are long gone, I have the actual winners marked with my special little star graphic (). These are the following categories in the order that appears below, so you can skip to whatever you want: Actor in a Leading Role, Actress in a Leading Role, Actor in a Suuporting Role, Actress in a Supporting Role, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Direction, Editing, Foreign Language Film, Makeup, Score - Musical or Comedy, Dramatic Score, Original Song, Sound, Screenplay - Adapted, Screenplay - Original, Best Picture.


Actor in a Leading Role

Roberto Begnini, Tom Hanks, Ian McKellen, Nick Nolte, Edward Norton


Who I Want to Win: Roberto Begnini. I'm a major fan of this man lately and I just can't get enough of him. If you can find it, rent a 1991 movie of his, Johnny Stecchino. He probably won't win because of the language barrier. The last and only actor or actress in a foreign language film who has won an Oscar is Sophia Loren. We can all wish, though, can't we?

Who Will Win: Nick Nolte. He seems to be the critic's choice this year, however...

I Won't Be Surprised: Tom Hanks. Let's face it, you can't not love Tom Hanks and you can't deny that he's got a lot of talent. Or Ian McKellan, because I just watched him win the Independent Spirit Award. (Poor Edward Norton. No one's rooting for him. That's what you get for playing a Nazi, I guess. Or maybe bumping out Jim Carrey...)

Actress in a Leading Role

Cate Blanchett, Fernanda Montenegro, Gwyneth Paltrow, Meryl Streep, Emily Watson


Who I Want to Win: Gwyneth Paltrow. After I left Shakespeare in Love, I wanted to be Gwyneth Paltrow.

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett. Usually, drama wins over comedy, especially if you're playing British royalty. However...

I Won't Be Surprised: Fernanda Montenegro. Though she isn't one of the tops in popularity, I've heard things.

Actor in a Supporting Role

James Coburn, Robert Duvall, Ed Harris, Geoffery Rush, Billy Bob Thornton


Who I Want to Win: Ed Harris, obviously. I honestly think he will win, though, for two reasons: 1) He won the Golden Globe. 2) Some people are saying that The Truman Show was snubbed in a few categories (I won't get into that), so Ed Harris would deserver to bring one home for the film.

Who Will Win: Ed Harris, seriously. Besides, he had charisma. (Love that word.) But if they want to be really bitchy...

I Won't Be Surprised: James Coburn, for Affliction.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Kathy Bates, Brenda Blethyn, Judi Dench, Rachel Griffiths, Lynn Redgrave


Who I Want to Win: Judi Dench. She was a real pisser in Shakespeare in Love, if it's proper to call Queen Elizabeth a "pisser." It's probably not.

Who Will Win: Lynn Redgrave, for Gods and Monsters, because she has the Golden Globe and a screwed up personal life to back her up. But then again...

I Won't Be Surprised: Judi Dench. Maybe the Academy will agree with me. (And they did!)

Art Direction

Elizabeth, Pleasantville, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, What Dreams May Come


Who I Want to Win: Pleasantville. I don't think I've ever watched a more interesting movie. Between the colors, the settings, and the scenery, I think it's a real contender.

Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan, most likely. Unless the Academy is more open-minded than I thought, in which case...

I Won't Be Surprised: What Dreams May Come. It may not have been a big hit with the critics plot-wise, but it sure was a beautiful movie to watch. Just mute the TV.

Cinematography

A Civil Action, Elizabeth, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line


Who I Want to Win: Saving Private Ryan. It's quite a task to make war look good and I think Ryan deserves this one, no doubt.

Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan. Unless...

I Won't Be Surprised: The Thin Red Line. There's more than one way to skin a cat, there's more than one way to make a good war movie.

Costume Design

Beloved, Elizabeth, Pleasantville, Shakespeare in Love, Velvet Goldmine


Who I Want to Win: Shakespeare in Love, because I want to wear the pretty dresses.

Who Will Win: Shakespeare in Love, because the Academy wants to either wear the pretty dresses or watch the dresses come off of Gwyneth Paltrow. Unless...

I Won't Be Surprised: Elizabeth. Sometimes they just like the "other" one better.

Directing

Roberto Begnini - Life is Beautiful, Steven Spielberg - Saving Private Ryan, John Madden - Shakespeare in Love, Terrence Malick - The Thin Red Line, Peter Weir - The Truman Show


Who I Want to Win: Peter Weir. The director is responsible for how the entire movie looks and feels, and I think Peter Weir did an excellent job of that between the acting, the sets, the costumes, and everything else. It was just a great movie to watch, and it was obvious that he and Jim Carrey had a great director-actor relationship. (You all knew I would mention him.) I also think Roberto Begnini is deserving because it's quite an accomplishment to star, write, and direct.

Who Will Win: Steven Spielberg. He definitely deserves it, because "he's the real king of the world." (TV Guide, March 22-28, 1999.) There is no question about this one.

Editing

Life is Beautiful, Out of Sight, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line


Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan. For those of you who don't know a lot about editing, listen to this: Imagine putting together a bunch of shots to make a scene, much like a jigsaw puzzle. But imagine you put the shot in even one frame too long. The scene has lost its meaning and the whole puzzle looks like a child put it together. Now try to imagine trying to put together a puzzle of World War II the way Steven Spielberg wants it to look.

Foreign Language Film

Central Station - Brazil, Children of Heaven - Iran, The Grandfather - Spain, Life is Beautiful - Italy, Tango - Argentina


Who Will Win: Life is Beautiful. I don't think there's any question about this one, either. There was an article in Newsday a while ago about how Fernanda Montenegro said Life is Beautiful was "a weak film...It didn't deserve to win." MmmmHmmmm...Can we say "bitter?"

Makeup

Elizabeth, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love


Who Will Win: Elizabeth, because it takes moxie on behalf of Cate Blanchett to let someone shave your bangs off to play the Virgin Queen. It also takes a lot to make a pretty girl ugly. Another "no question."

Score - Musical or Comedy

A Bug's Life, Mulan, Patch Adams, The Prince of Egypt, Shakespeare in Love


Who I Want to Win: Mulan. I think it's about time Disney got its act together and finally made a really great movie. I love belting the song "Reflection" in the car when I drive home from school every weekend.

Who Will Win: It's hard to say, but I think I'm going to stick with Shakespeare in Love, because it looks as if it's the favorite. But...

I Won't Be Surprised: The Prince of Egypt. You wanna know why? Because of "The Prayer." Why? Because Celine - Freaking - Dion sings it.

Score - Dramatic

Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Pleasantville, Saving Private Ryan, The Thin Red Line


Who I Want to Win: Life is Beautiful

Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan. But...

I Won't Be Surprised: Life is Beautiful, if they decide to go for the drama of the Holocaust rather than the war.

Original Song

Armageddon - "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing," Quest For Camelot - "The Prayer," The Horse Whisperer - "A Soft Place to Fall," Babe: Pig in the City - "That'll Do," The Prince of Egypt - "When You Believe"


Who I Want to Win: "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing." I thought the words were absolutely beautiful and my favorite part is "Then I kiss your eyes/ And thank God we're together" because I think kissing body parts is so romantic. And that wasn't meant to be sick, I meant parts like eyes, fingers, noses, elbows, knees, etc.

Who Will Win: "The Prayer." You wanna know why? Because they will not let go of Titanic and Celine Dion. If this song wins, that's what it will mean. But...

I Won't Be Surprised: "I Don't Want to Miss a Thing." Hey, we can always dream, can't we?

Sound

Armageddon, The Mask of Zorro, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line

Who I Want to Win: Saving Private Ryan. When you do realism, you have to do everything exactyly the way it happened, and if the sound crew can bring real WWII sound to a movie, they deserve props.

Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan. Unless...

I Won't Be Surprised: The Thin Red Line, if they prefer the "other" war movie.

Visual Effects

Armageddon, Mighty Joe Young, What Dreams May Come


Who I Want to Win: I would go with What Dreams May Come. I liked Armageddon, but I think the whole movie was overhyped and, in the end, it was nothing to cry about.

Who Will Win: What Dreams May Come, because I think the Academy will agree with me. Unless...

I Won't Be Surprised: Armageddon. Maybe they have a soft spot for blockbuster sell-outs.

Screenplay - Adaptation

Gods and Monsters, Out of Sight, Primary Colors, A Simple Plan, The Thin Red Line

Who I Want to Win: Gods and Monsters. It seems cool enough.

Who Will Win: Gods and Monsters

I Won't Be Surprised: The Thin Red Line

Screenplay - Original

Bulworth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Truman Show


Who I Want to Win: The Truman Show, and not just for the obvious reason, but because it's a really clever, intelligent, interesting, wonderful screenplay, and I think Andrw Niccol was a genius in writing it.

Who Will Win: Saving Private Ryan. It did win the Golden Globe, after all. Then again, that doesn't mean anything, does it?... Anyway, there's always...

I Won't Be Surprised: Shakespeare in Love. It's very possible. Someone somewhere said it was a "script-driven" movie, so that must mean something. It's a clever idea, anyway, writing about the Bard's muse.

And last, but definitely not least...


Best Picture

Elizabeth, Life is Beautiful, Saving Private Ryan, Shakespeare in Love, The Thin Red Line


I'll look at each of these indivually.


Elizabeth: This was kind of left in the dust by Shakespeare in Love, though it may be picked over it because the Academy seems to prefer dramas over comedies.

Life is Beautiful: This is the first time a foreign language film has been nominated for Best Picture, so that reduces its odds of winning. It does, however, deal with WWII and the Holocaust and it happens to be an outstanding movie. If it doesn't get Best Picture, it will get Best Foreign Language Film.

Saving Private Ryan: This looks like the winner. It's got a strong cast (including Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Matt Damon) and a strong director (Oscar winner and all-time favorite) Steven Spielberg and that makes for an overall strong movie. It also struck a nerve with WWII veterans, the way it realistically and dramatically recreated the battles, violence, and emotions. Also, its being a war movie makes the odds even better: five war films have won for Best Picture, including the very first one, Wings. I pick this one.

Shakespeare in Love: Unless, they go for the group favorite, the group being the moviegoing audience. The public loved Shakespeare in Love, loved Gwyneth Paltrow, and loved a good love story. Sometimes, to be really, really cheesy, "all you need is love." I'll pick this as the other possible contender.

The Thin Red Line: What I've lovingly referred to as "the other war movie." Unfortunately for the cast and crew, that's probably whay the Academy is calling it as well.





What did you think of the Oscars or my choices? Let me know.





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