Studies in AIDS-ravaged Africa have found that people with very low levels
of HIV in their blood are unlikely to infect others - suggesting that drug
therapies or vaccines that suppress the virus could significantly reduce its
spread.
The research also gives compelling evidence that circumcision may be
protecting many men from contracting the disease.
At the same time, surveys in the United States show that the introduction
of powerful AIDS drugs has made people less concerned about HIV and, in some
cases, led them to act more recklessly.
The studies, presented here Sunday at the seventh Conference on
Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections, pointed up both the promise and the
pitfalls of antiretroviral therapy in the next stage of the epidemic.
"AIDS has changed. It's not the same disease anymore," said Kevin De Cock,
former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's division of
HIV/AIDS Prevention and Surveillance and Epidemiology. "With the advent of
highly active antiretroviral therapy, it makes sense to focus on the infected
population much more in our prevention efforts."
African studies
The two African studies in Uganda and Zambia examined how heterosexual
couples infect one another. Although given counseling and condoms, most
continued to practice unsafe sex, and a large percentage of people in each group
became infected from their partners.
People whose partners had fewer than 1,500 copies of the virus in their
blood (according to standard measures) escaped infection. As the volume of virus
rose to as high as 50,000 copies, infection rates rose dramatically.
Because expensive AIDS drugs are generally not available in Africa, the
differences in virus levels occurred naturally. It remains to be shown
conclusively that drug-induced reduction of virus in the blood has the same
effect, although many researchers believe that it does.
"Our data provides a lot of hope," said Thomas Quinn of Johns Hopkins
University in Baltimore, who led the Ugandan study.
Besides antiretrovirals, the virus also may be suppressed by vaccines,
which would be cheaper and
easier to administer in developing countries.
While low levels of virus in the blood usually mean the virus also is low
in semen, the correlation is not perfect. Michelle Roland of UC-San Francisco
said she knows of at least one woman who was infected after unsafe sex with her
partner, who was thought to have an undetectable amount of virus in his blood.
Drugs worth side effects
Although antiretroviral drugs are notoriously difficult to take and have
many side effects, their existence already has led many people in high-risk
groups to drop their guard against HIV, according to a new CDC survey.
In a poll of 1,976 HIV-negative people in seven states, the agency found
that 31 percent said they were less concerned about the disease, and 17 percent
were less careful about drug and sexual practices because of the therapies. The
survey polled nearly equal numbers of heterosexuals recruited from sexually
transmitted disease clinics, injection drug-users and gay men.
The CDC's Stan Lehman, who presented the study, acknowledged that it makes
sense for people to be less worried about HIV because of the drugs, but he
remained concerned about behaviors. The survey also found that among gay men,
those less concerned about HIV were having more unprotected receptive anal sex,
the riskiest sexual behavior.
Meanwhile, another possible protection against HIV is getting more
attention among HIV researchers at the conference: circumcision.
In the Ugandan study of 415 couples, Quinn and his colleagues found that
none of the 50 men who were circumcised picked up the virus no matter how much
virus their partners had in the blood.
Quinn called the finding highly provocative and said it has been backed by
other recent research that has yet to be published.
"In at least the high-risk individuals, circumcision could be associated
with a 40 percent reduction in transmission," he said.
Disparities explained
The finding could partially account for why the disease has spread so
rapidly in sub-Saharan Africa, where circumcision rates are low. It also could
help explain why studies of female-to-male
transmission of HIV in the United States find that it is less frequent
here, where circumcision is common.
The African studies found that men and women were equally likely to
transmit the virus to their heterosexual partners.
The CDC's De Cock said he was skeptical of earlier data that suggested
circumcision helped protect against infection, but now he has changed his mind.
Quinn said the effect is biologically plausible because the foreskin that
is removed in circumcision is very soft and prone to tiny lacerations that could
allow the virus to enter the bloodstream more easily.
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