Table Of Contents, PART 2 (fb-index3.html)

Table Of Contents, CONTINUED

Appendix A - Quotes (fb-50)

[A] Quotes from Official Government Documents, section non122

[A1] The Social Security Trustees March 1999 report saying that where the general fund is going to get the revenues to redeem the trust fund IOUs is "not within the scope of this report" -- section non123.

[A2] OMB (Office Of Management and Budget) "Analytical Perspectives of The President's Fiscal Year 1999 Budget", February 1, 1999, quote regarding the trust fund assets being of no economic significance, in section non124

[A3] CRS (Congressional Research Service), May 5, 1998 Report quote regarding the trust fund assets being of no economic significance, in section non125

[A4] CBO (Congressional Budget Office), "The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 2000-2009", quote regarding the trust fund assets being of no economic significance, January 1999 in section non126

[A5] GAO (Government Accounting Office) Report, quote regarding that bonds must be redeemed by borrowing from the public, raising taxes, or cutting spending, April 1998, in section non127

[A6] SMI (Medicare Part B) March 1999 Trustees Report regarding the SMI Program's Growth Rate Being Unsustainable, in section non128

[A7] 2001 Trustees Summary - Excerpt Expressing Concern About The Drain On General Revenues Required To Redeem The Trust Fund Bonds, in section non256

[B] Quotes From Government Officials, Politicians, Media, and Others, in section non129

[B1] CBO Director Dan Crippen Senate Testimony, February 23, 1999, in section non130.    Subsection non131 of his testimony has his obligation nor ability quote: "the size of the balances in the Social Security trust funds -— be it $2 trillion, $10 trillion, or zero —- does not affect the obligations that the federal government has to the program's beneficiaries. Nor does it affect the government's ability to pay those benefits"

[B2] Some quotes found on the United Seniors Organization's web site, in section non132

[B3] Many Liberals / Progressives / Leftists Also Agree That The Social Security Trust Fund Is Not An Intergenerational Savings Plan, in section non257

[B4] Quotes From Robert Eisner, Fiscal Liberal And Author Of The Great Deficit Scares in section non133

[B5] Quotes From Dorcas Hardy, Former Commissioner of Social Security in section non134

[C] Misinformation, in section non135.

Appendix B - Total U.S. Federal Budget (fb-60)

[A] Robert Bixby Feb 25, 1999 Testimony About Budget 'Surpluses' and Entitlement Spending (137)

[B] Entitlement Spending's Increasing Share Of Federal Spending - some more Bixby testimony and JAL commentary (138)

[B1] Continuation of Robert Bixby's Feb-25-1999 testimony (139)

[B2] JAL commentary on Robert Bixby Testimony (140)

[B2.A] The Source Of The Entitlement Spending Percentages (141)

[B2.B] Social Security's Unfunded Obligation Is $9 Trillion? And $8 Trillion For Medicare And Other Federal Entitlements? (142)

[B2.C] Age Related Entitlements This Year Is $800 Billion, 44% Of All Federal Spending (143)

[D] Mandatory Spending And What Mandatory Means (145)

[E] The Near - Sacred Items: Hard-Core Entitlements + Net Interest + Defense (146)

[E1] Hard Core Entitlements (as defined by JAL) (147)

[E2] Net Interest and Defense Spending (148)

[E3] Table of Near-Sacred Items: Hard Core Entitlements + Net Interest + Defense (149)

[E4] Federal Taxes Are Too High, But Don't Cut My Social Security and Medicare (150)

[G] Some Budget Concepts Explained (152)

[G1] On Budget, Off Budget, and Unified Budget (153)

[G2] Discretionary Spending (154)

[G3] Net Interest and Gross Interest (155)

[G4] Offsetting Receipts; Interest Earned By The Trust Funds (157)

[G4.A] Table 4-7 - CBO Projections of Offseting Receipts, 1998 and 2009 (158)

Appendix C - National Debt and Interest on National Debt (fb-66)

[A] National debt (160)

[B] Interest On The National Debt (161)

[B1] Interest: Gross, Net, On Trust Fund Debt, On Publicly-Held Debt, etc. (162)

[B2] Foreign Ownership of the Publicly - Held Federal Debt (1.2 T$, 33%) , and Interest Paid To Foreigners On This Debt (91 B$, 36%) (163)

Appendix D - Common Questions, Myths, And Special Issues (fb-70)

[A] The Social Security Trust Fund Is Fine For At Least 35 Years? And For At Least 75 Years If A Small Positive Demographic Shift Occurs? (165)

[B] I'm a 20 year old. Social Security Won't Be There For Me When I Retire. I hear it is going "bust" in 2034. (166)

[C] Only a 2.07 Percent Of Payroll Increase In Payroll Taxes Is Needed To Solve The Social Security Problem - Not! (167)

[D] Social Security Has No Problem If The SS Trustees' Low Cost Scenario Occurs? (168)

[D1] In the Low Cost Scenario, The Cash Flow Becomes Negative In 2019 and Stays Negative (169)

[D2] Demographic and Economic Assumptions In The Low Cost (and other) Scenarios (171)

[F] There is no way for an entire generation to save for the future? (173)

[F1] The $3.7 Trillion publicly - held national debt is an example of dis-savings that will hurt future generations (174)

[F2] Reducing the publicly - held national debt is one good way to save (175)

[F3] Boomers can save, by investing, and future generations will be better off for it (176)

[F4] Boomers accumulating assets for retirement is not just a redistribution of wealth -- it grows the economy too (177)

[F5] Boomer and media excuses not to save or pretending that the SSTF is a reservoir of savings (178)

[F6] Robert Eisner (liberal, no-big-problem) point of view (179)

[F6.A] Are Inter-generational transfers feasible? (180)

[F6.B] Measures to increase savings may depress the economy (181)

[F6.C] Are sacrifices by the boomers or the elderly justified? (182)

[F6.D] Why more goverment spending (even deficit spending) on child care, education, etc. is justified (183)

[G1] The Four Questions To Ask About Whether Anything Is Being Saved (185)

[G2] Q1. Are the SIT Obligations in the SSTF Of Any Value? (186)

[G3] Q2. Will the SIT Obligations in the SSTF Lighten The Burden On Future Taxpayers? (187)

[G4] Q3a. Aren't we saving the SS surpluses - because if we didn't have these surpluses, we'd be deeper in debt? (188)

[G4.A] We've only been attempting to balance the unified budget, not the portion excluding SS (weak) (189)

[G4.B] If we had bigger deficits in the past, we would have mustered the political will sooner to reduce the deficit (190)

[G4.C] What if your spouse spent his/her bonus that he earmarked for retirement, and dropped IOUs in a shoe box marked "my retirement trust fund"? (191)

[G4.D] What if your parents told you that they were saving for your college education, spent the earmarked money, and dropped IOUs in the "Junior's College Trust Fund" shoebox? (192)

[G5] Q3b. Since we spent some of the SS surpluses on future productivity enhancement, isn't this a form of savings? (193)

[G6] Q4. Some of the SS surpluses are being used to retire some of the national debt. Is this a form of savings? (194)

[G7] The key point -- the trust funds have no real assets (195)

[H1] Because we anticipate a very large and sustained increase in Social Security costs with near certainty (197)

[H2] Saving Up For Future Wars? By Paying Off The Debt In Times Of Peace (198)

[H3] We'll Be O.K. If The Goldilocks Economy Continues And We Have The Discipline To Save The Surpluses (199)

[H4] National Debt As Percent Of GDP: 1790 to 2043. Historically, After Each War, We've Quickly Reduced the Debt To Almost Nothing. The Spending Spree Of The Last 25 Years Is an Aberration (200)

[J] It is Politically Impossible to Cut Benefits? (202)

[J1] Benefit cuts that have already been made (203)

[J2] Tax increases that have already occurred (204)

[J3] Benefit Cuts In Other Countries (205)

[K1] Some say the real income of median and below earners has declined (207)

[K2] The Social Security trustees forecast real wage growth of 0.9%/year (208)

[K3] United For Fair Economy's "Shifting Fortunes" report (209)

[L1] Kenneth Apfel (SS Commissioner) 2/99 Quote, and Analysis (211)

[L2] Another Analysis -- Taking Tables T30.1 and T30.2 and Adding In Federal Net Interest (212)

[M1] SIT Obligations Are Non-Marketable (214)

[M2] Treasury Department Pages Labeling Them As NonMarketable. Also Some Pages Showing The National Debt By Types Of Security, Interest Rates, Etc. (215)

[M3] SSA actuarial Note #142 On Trust Fund's Assets and Special Issue Treasury Obligations (216)

[M4] Per M. Hodges: The Federal Reserve Bank Doesn't Recognize The SIT Obligations As Official Debt (217)

[M5] SIT Obligations Are Backed By Full Faith And Credit Of The U.S. Government (218)

[M6] Marketable Bonds In The Trust Funds (219)

[M7] Are Special Issue Treasury Obligations Inferior To Regular Marketable Treasury Obligations? (220)

[M7.A] They Are Backed By The Full Faith And Credit of the U.S. Government, Just As Regular Marketable Treasury Obligations Are (221)

[M7.B] Arguments As To Why In Reality The Trust Funds' SIT Obligations May Be Inferior (222)

[M7.B1] They Aren't Market - Tested. And There Is No Redemption Date (223)

[M7.B2] Laws Have Been Changed In The Past To Cut Benefits (224)

[M7.B3] Accounting Changes Have Been Made To Make the Trust Funds Look Better (225)

[M7.B4] There Have Been No Laws Made That Adversely Affect Marketable Securities (226)

[M7.B5] Consequences of Not Meeting SIT Obligations Vs. Consequences Of Defaulting On The Publicly - Held Debt (Marketable Securities) (227)

[M7.B6] Even In Future, There Will Be Many More Working - Age Voters Than Elderly Voters. And Marketable Treasury Holders Are Also Campaign Contributors (228)

[M7.B7] Trust Fund Debt (SIT Obligations) Soon To Exceed Publicly Held Debt (Marketable Securities) (229)

[M7.B8] Trust Fund Obligations Will Probably Be Met, It's A Matter Of When. Expect Benefit Cuts and Accounting Manuvers That Stretch Out The Lives Of The Trust Funds (230)

[M7.B9] Actually, This Discussion Of The Value Of The SIT Obligations Is Academic -- Benefit Levels Are Determined By Law, And Must Be Paid By Law Regardless Of Whether The SSTF Is Full Or Empty (231)

[M7.C] Govt's reason not to use real marketable bonds for the trust funds (so as not to impact the financial markets) is questionable (232)

Appendix E - Demographic and Economic Assumptions (fb-80)

[A] The Social Security Trustees Are Using Pessimistic Demographic and Economic Assumptions? (234)

[A1] Introduction and Summary (234)

[A2] Demographic and Economic Parameters, General (236)

[A3] Fertility Rate (237)

[A4] Immigration (238)

[A5] Life Expectancy (239)

[A6] Productivity and Real Wage Growth (241)

[A7] Workers Per Dependent (243)

[A7.A] General Discussion (244)

[A7.B] Total Number of Dependents, Including Children, Will Be No Worse Than In The 1960's (246)

[A7.B1] Population In Three Age Brackets. And Dependency Ratios Based On Age Brackets (247)

[A7.B2] Aged Dependency Ratio To Increase 69%, From 0.210 Now to 0.354 In 2030 (248)

[A7.B3] The Total (i.e. Pre-Adults + Seniors) Dependency Ratio Was Worse in 1960-1975 Than It Will Be In The Future (249)

[A7.B4] The Cost of Supporting Anonymous Elderly Through Higher Taxes Is Higher, and Perceived More Burdensome Than The Cost Of Supporting One's Own Children (250)

[A8] The Rapidly Growing "Old Old" Population (251)

Table T234.1 Key Economic and Demographic Assumptions -- Social Security Trustees' Intermediate Forecast, March 1999 -- For Years 2000 - 2075 (235)

Table T239.1 Life Expectancy (240)

Table T241.1 Productivity and Real Wages (242)

Appendix F - Technical Appendix (fb-90)

[A] Interest Rate Used In Present Worth Calculations (253)

[B] Current Dollars, Constant Dollars, Inflation-Adjusted Dollars (254)

[C] Formula For Calculating Average Growth Rate (255)

Appendix G - Correspondence With AARP Regarding Their "Social Security Is Solvent For Decades" Viewpoint (fb-91)

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