There's more than one way to
survive a crisis. It was about a year ago that two Southeast Asian economies
ignored the West's advice, introduced strikingly unorthodox measures to
protect their fast-weakening currencies and roiling economies and triggered
a transpacific diplomatic
storm. The West, especially America, howled,
as if some holy Adam Smith commandment had been violated.
But that did not stop Hong Kong from shoring up its stock
market in an unprecedented way,
and Malaysia from erecting a firewall
to protect its besieged currency. What happened next was
the stuff of regional legend: The
unprecedented moves actually worked,
and the West's unease at such economic unorthodoxy, aimed
at Western stock and currency speculators, looks in retrospect
suspiciously overwrought.
Happy anniversary, Hong Kong and Malaysia. It looks like you were right and the West was wrong. Neither is gloating, not yet, at least. Though today their economies seem much improved over a year ago, they--and Asia in general--are still slogging their way through regional financial turmoil. But this dramatic tale of two economies that publicly ignored Uncle Sam's avuncular advice is an object lesson. The truth is, every Asian nation will have to fashion its own survival strategy, whether Washington likes it or not. Hong Kong and Malaysia got the chilly brunt of American criticism for intervening heavily in their supposedly free markets, but everyone knew that other Asian nations, though more quietly, were stitching together their own approaches to economic survival in the age of globalization. But if Asia frequently complains, usually under its breath, about America's economic dogmatism, America is often right to call attention to the Asian penchant for inertia. It's a serious issue: If the region plans to compete effectively in the global economy, it's not going to do so without modernizing, especially regarding financial transparency, government oversight and banking systems.
In fact, top-flight Asian
executives know this better than
anyone, according to a recent regional
survey conducted by the research unit of Rabobank International
of Singapore. It found that few Asian professionals believe
reforms have gone very far; indeed, most doubt that the programs
have even made it to the halfway mark. Such
reforms are among the big issues sure to arise at next month's
annual get-together of the Asia
Pacific Economic Cooperation group
in New Zealand. APEC is now the region's leading multinational
organization, and this could prove one of the most important
meetings ever for America and its Asian friends. For if the
flu flares anew, and millions more
Asians are thrown out of work, the
U.S. could lose more than just a region of healthy trading
partners. Warns Princeton professor
Richard Falk, in the current issue
of Harvard International Review, "Further retreat [from Western
ways] could be prompted by instability, generated in part
by a spreading sense that the benefits
of economic globalization are being
unfairly distributed."
It was only six years ago that
APEC rose from the mundane--a low-key
ministerial meeting in which the U.S. participated--when
President Clinton dramatically
decided to attend the organization's annual
meeting; overnight, virtually every other Asian head of state
showed up. That ceremonial sequence
changed the very nature of APEC,
also virtually overnight. Next month, Clinton is expected to
be in Auckland. He's scheduled
to bring along a top team, including America's tough-minded, highly respected
chief trade negotiator, Ambassador
Charlene Barshefsky. APEC, she concurs, needs to become
a premier venue for better Asia-U.S. understanding: "Asia's
future is tied up in regionalism,
so a priority in Auckland is to build APEC
up." This is the long-range vision that U.S. diplomacy needs.
Among other things, Barshefsky
believes the APEC summit will help create
new momentum for China's accession into the World Trade Organization.
Its annual meeting is in Seattle in November. And she believes
that the high-pressure, star-studded atmosphere in Auckland
will seal market-opening agreements with long-shuttered Vietnam.
Like predecessor institutions
to the current European Union, APEC could
be an important evolutionary stop on the way to true Asian
regional union. Sure, that idea's
a long shot. But so were those shots in
the dark that Hong Kong and Malaysia took a year ago in order
to survive.
Tom Plate
Times Contributing Editor.
He Teaches at Ucla.