(Valley Cottage, April 7, 2000) I’ve been silent about the Mets thus far because I’ve been watching them, trying to figure this team out. This is the first time in recent history that I haven’t been taking Bobby Valentine to task because, like the Met skipper, I’m still not sure what the proper configuration is.

It’s not clear who should bat second, which outfielders to use, which 4th and 5th starters to use and, generally, what do to about a team that is practically all right-handed with the bats.

Overall, I think the Mets will be OK. They have some problems here and there, but it is their overall depth as a team that can take them to the World Series this season. Already, teams are starting to get nagged with injuries, and the Mets, because they are deeper than most (although so are the Braves), will be able to sustain through the hard times and stay atop the league standings.

John Olerud will be missed. So will Roger Cedeno. Robin Ventura may have had his career season in 1999. Rickey Henderson, even if he can keep his head in the games, will be hard-pressed to repeat what he did last year. And yes, the Mets are woefully short on left-handed hitting as they start this season.

But overall, the 2000 Mets are stockpiled with players on the big club and reserves at Norfolk that can easily take them to a National League championship. They are stronger than last season in starting pitching, have a formidable bench, outstanding infield defense and an improved defensive outfield, and boast the best overall bullpen in the NL.

Let’s take a closer look:

Starting Pitching: Mike “Rent-An-Ace” Hampton looked like a bum in Japan, and pitched a crummy game in his first Shea appearance, but is still probably on his way to another 20-win season. Hampton is a groundball pitcher and will benefit from the prowess of the Met infield. He’s also an excellent fielder himself and helps the team with his bat. Still, he’s already shownt hat he won’t repeat his outstanding 1999 records – with two losses to start the season, he’d have to go 22-2 the rest of the way just to repeat it.

Al Leiter and Rick Reed should have good, solid seasons and win at least 15 apiece. Look for a particularly strong season from Rick Reed, who may just show that he’s really the best pitcher on this staff. We’ve been hearing this “poor man’s Greg Maddux” description for a long time now and it’s for good reason.

The 4th and 5th spots are still question marks with the righty Bobby Jones and Glendon Rusch. But it’s good to know that the Mets have Pat Mahomes to step in and some good live arms in Triple A, including Lefty Bobby Jones, Bill Pulsipher, and Paul Wilson, that can help them during the season.

Bullpen: Armando Benitez has established himself as one of the most reliable and dominant closers in baseball. Few teams combine a top-notch closer with pitchers the likes of Turk Wendell, Dennis Cook, John Franco, Pat Mahomes, and Rich Rodriquez.

Infield: It may be that you ain’t seen nothing yet from Edgardo Alfonzo. He continues to get better with age and there’s no reason to believe that he can’t top his numbers from last year, especially now that he’s been moved into the three hole in the batting order in front of Piazza. Both with the bat and the glove, Alfonzo has established himself as one of the premiere players in the game.

Todd Zeile is the biggest question mark. He seems to be handling the move to first base pretty well and, while he probably won’t have Olerud-type numbers with the bat, still could hit .280 or better with 25-30 homeruns and 90 or more RBIs.

Robin Ventura had a magnificent 1999 and could just as easily feast on NL pitching again this year. The Mets will see a lot of righties because of their predominantly right-handed hitting lineup and Ventura, as one of the few lefty bats, will benefit from this.

Rey Ordonez is like adding a fifth infielder to the team. It is remarkable to watch this guy day in and day out. Rey lifted weights and bulked up over the off-season and hit some home runs this spring. Let’s hope he doesn’t now envision himself as a home run hitter – he’s got to have more discipline at the plate. So far this year, he’s still swinging at a lot of first pitches and balls out of the strike zone.

Catching: Mike Piazza is the cornerstone of the Mets offense, the #1 catcher in the game today, one of the ten most dangerous hitters in baseball, and on his way to Cooperstown as the best-hitting catcher of all-time. He had another monster season in 1999 and has worked hard on his defensive game this spring. With the escalating salaries of baseball players, his 7-year contract with the Mets now looks like a bargain.

Todd Pratt proves over and over again that he’s the super-sub that will be productive with glove and bat whenever called upon to rest the big guy. He’s a team player that helps the team whether he’s playing or cheering from the bench.

Outfield: Here’s where the confusion comes in. The Mets start the season with a starting outfield of Henderson, Hamilton and Bell, but some of the young reserve outfielders have the ability to wrestle free any of those starting spots. And don’t be surprised to see Steve Phillips add some new names to the mix as the season progresses.

Bell and Hamilton give the team good defense in center and right. Henderson has no arm, but is a solid leftfielder when he feels like it. Mora is the best outfielder on the team and will come in late as a defensive replacement on the days that he’s not starting.

It’s not the best outfield, but not bad either. It will be interesting to see which players, if any, emerge from the pack to win the starting jobs. The answer might just be to hand over some of the starting jobs to some of the younger players sitting on the bench. Bell’s job seems secure, but it’s quite possible that both Henderson and Hamilton could be out of the picture before too long and replaced by the likes of Payton, Nunnally, Mora, and Agbayani. In fact, I’m ready right now to cut Rickey loose and give the leftfield job and leadoff spot to one of these guys.

It would be nice to have a big bopper in the outfield mix. Again, Nunnally, Payton and Agbayani have long ball potential and should be given the chance to show it. Too bad we lost Carl Everett a couple of seasons ago. He’s exactly what this team needs right now to put it over the top.

After hearing all my co-workers complain about how they were affected by the change to Daylight Savings Time this week, I’m convinced that the Mets trip to Japan can account for some of the early season sluggishness thus far. But in the first handful of games, the Mets have looked miserable at the plate. Nobody is hitting, and Valentine is still looking for a few hot bats to get things started.

The 2000 Mets are not as good a team as last year’s edition. They’ve lost some of their balance and, while they still have an excellent shot at the playoffs and beyond, they’ve got me, Bobby Valentine, and Steve Phillips still scratching our heads trying to figure out how to put the pieces together and get the ship on course.

(Nyack, April 9, 2000) Remember you heard it here first in one of my E-mails about a month ago. Hamilton is now injured as I predicted. And, he will likely be lost for the season as I predicted. I read in the papers today where he has admitted retirement is a possibility. That should help clear up the outfield.

I am now updating my prediction for the 00 Mets. Henderson will continue to blow bubbles as he trots into second for easy force plays. What a disgrace that was the other day. He trots into second figuring he is out anyway because the ball was hit to second. As it turned out, the 2nd baseman bobbled the ball and he likely would have been safe had he hustled. It is his way after his first year with a new team. This is why Ricky gets traded every 2 years.

Mike Hampton will be the biggest bust in the N.L. I say again, they gave up too much offense for Hampton. Met fans will be crying in their beer when he is 9-11 in the middle of August. He will be lucky to win 15 games. Going with Docs predictions for Leiter and Reed that makes 45 wins for the top 3 guys in the rotation. If the other two total 15 wins (an unlikely event), that makes 60 wins for the starters. I've got news for you, 60 wins between your starters will not take you to the series.

I am so sick of hearing about all those mythical live arms in the Mets Triple-A system. Sounds like wishful thinking to me. Every Met pitcher to come out of the minors since Seaver has been a bust. Get the fuck over it. The Mets are no longer an ace generating machine. Those days are long past.

It is already obvious that they will not match last years defensive prowess. Of course they realistically could not be expected to. Problem is, they will fall far short.

Bottom line. The Mets have no speed. The Mets do have mediocre pitching. The Mets do not have enough power. The Mets will not hit for a high average. The Mets will have adequate defense. The Mets will be lucky to finish third.