Dow 8000 & The Crash

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----------------------------Original message----------------------------
Date:     Tue, 30 Sep 97 13:02:32 EDT
From:     Spirit Of Truth Page 
Subject:  Dow 8000 & The Crash


                    ***DOW 8000 & THE CRASH***

                           By J. Adams
                   Tue, 30 Sep 97 12:29:56 EDT
				   
                   The Stock Market Update Page
          http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~jpa94001/update.html

With the DJIA right up against the psychologically important 8000
mark-

                 http://www.timely.com/p&djia.htm

and the NYSE right up againt the 500 mark-

                 http://www.timely.com/p&nyci.htm

and the Canadian TSE 3000 right at 7000-

                 http://www.timely.com/p&toro.htm

and the French CAC 30 right at 3000-

                 http://www.timely.com/p&pcac.htm

all while investor expectations are at an irrationally extreme
high-point as indicated by an extremely low Put-To-Call ratio-

                http://www.oextrader.com/CBOE.htm

the probability of a stock market crash into October, the "Black"
month  infamous  for mass panics and stock market crashes like in
1929 and 1987, is extraordinarily high.

While I believe the most likely source of an  upset  of  investor
expectations and crash at the current juncture is a war, possibly
compliments  of  Iraq's  Saddam Hussein (see "Dow 8000 & Saddam's
Revenge?"), there is also the possibility that other factors will
come into play in a dramatic reversal from Dow 8000 and other key
psychological barriers in popular stock market indices.

One of those  possibilities,  for  instance,  is  that  the  U.S.
Federal  Reserve  will  unexpectatedly hike interest rates today.
Simply because this would be so very "unexpected" at the currrent
juncture,  is why one might expect this to occur,  since it would
so greatly upset investor expectations and lead stock  prices  to
sharply reverse from Dow 8000.

Outside of the Fed,  however,  one should definitely be keeping a
close  eye  on the Middle East.  Something is definitely going on
concerning Iraq as shown by the news  below  about  seeming  U.S.
preparations for military action in the Persian Gulf-


"Twenty  F-15s  and  F--16s deployed to Bahrain last Thursday and
are being joined by two B-1  Bombers.  All  are  from  the  366th
Composite   Wing   from   Mountain   Home  Air  Force  Base.   As
significant,  General Richard Hawley,  Commander of the USAF  Air
Combat  Command,  arrived in Bahrain today for a 'routine two-day
visit,' increasing the level of control exercised on U.S.  forces
in the region."

FROM: Strategic Forecasting L.L.C.
Internet:    http://www.stratfor.com
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