A Zhirinovsky Coup?

All the classic signs have emerged to indicate the current crisis in Chechnya is part of Russia's deceptive pursuits. By orchestrating a significant military and geopolitical bungle on the part of president Boris Yeltsin, a pretext is being created for Russian hardliners to overthrow Yeltsin's government and establish a military dictatorship. Given the Zhirinovsky connection, it is clear that Yeltsin will eventually be replaced by Vladimir Zhirinovsky, thus opening the way for the global war Moscow has been planning probably for decades.

Likewise, in recent months Yeltsin's support on the left and right has been rapidly dissolving. During the autumn, seemingly reckless policy on the part of Russia's Central Bank triggered a collapse in the value of the Russian ruble. This, in turn, was used as a pretext for a shakeup of Yeltsin's government that eventually led to the dismissal or resignation of the main liberal reformers in his Cabinet. Following this break with his liberal allies, Yeltsin surrounded himself with a small circle of hardliners in the context of his secretive Security Council. Thus came his fateful decision to take military action to regain the breakaway republic of Chechnya. Since this operation has gone awry in a manner similar to the failed crackdown Gorbachev ordered in the Baltics in 1991, Yeltsin has now seemingly lost the support of his remaining conservative allies. The stage has been set for but another coup attempt by hardliners in Russia's military and intelligence establishment.

So that you understand how current events in Chechnya are effectively staged and part of Moscow's ongoing deceptive pursuits, read the following excerpt from a recent Reuter's article.

And as Moscow's troops bog down ever deeper into the ruins of the Chechen capital Grozny, some commentators are starting to speculate whether there might be a more sinister side to the Kremlin's ill- starred Chechnya campaign.

"There is something very suspicious going on. Why have they thrown away the rule book?" a Western military specialist said.

"Either the Russian army really does have a catastrophic morale problem or this operation was somehow designed to fail."

Vyacheslav Kostikov, spokesman for President Boris Yeltsin, dismisses talk of military incompetence. But conspiracy theorists' speaking of plots and subterfuge find a receptive audience among naturally suspicious Russians.

Otto Latsis, a commentator for Izvestia newspaper, said the once mighty military-industrial complex -- resentful about the reduction of its role since the start of democratic reforms -- would welcome either victory or defeat in Chechnya.

Victory would mean the start of complicated manouevring to boost anti-democratic forces and mount what would effectively be a coup, leaving Yeltsin in place as a figurehead.

"A defeat of the Russian armed forces would make it possible to remove Yeltsin from power not later than the presidential elections in 1996 and therefore they would have carried out the coup without Yeltsin," Latsis wrote on Thursday.

But military experts have not had the slightest trouble in identifying a series of gross errors by Russian commanders, not the least of which was sending in second-rate tanks with inexperienced crews into an enemy-held city without infantry.

The tanks seen in Grozny so far have mainly been standard T-72 models rather than more modern T-80s, which are equipped with special "reactive armour" to protect against the anti- tank rockets used by Chechen defenders.

"It does sometimes make you gasp. How can they possibly have forgotten everything from the text books they've studied so assiduously?" said a Western military attache.

But Kostikov said Russian soldiers knew what they were doing. "The Russian army is one of the most powerful in the world. If it had wanted to take Grozny by storm it would have done so," he told independent NTV television on Wednesday.

Western military experts said they did not necessarily believe Moscow's commanders were under instructions to blatantly undermine the campaign, either for political ends or to press for a larger armed forces budget.

"There has been a tremendous cock-up, but I don't think it's conspiratorial. They have not had the money to do the training they need. If you don't train, you are not terribly coordinated when you hit the field," said another attache.

"It's getting to the stage where nearly no one, based on any past precedent or experience, understands what the Russians are doing," said the first military attache."

"But one thing which comes out is that whatever mistakes there are, the Russians will continue to make them."

He said the problems in Chechnya were all the more surprising given the first few difficult months after Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan in 1979, when rebels dealt Moscow's inexperienced soldiers some painful blows.

"The Afghan experience is such an ingrained part of the system. Many of today's commanders are Afghan veterans. Although the troops then were not involved in urban fighting, they were certainly doing the approach work," the attache said.

The rumour mill, meanwhile, is still working at top speed.