The Persian Gulf Deception
(notes & references)

2. This idea is covered in depth in another paper I wrote entitled: "The Total Lie".

The main purpose of a grand deception would be to set the stage for a Russian nuclear surprise attack. To understand how this could be, simply consider the following three points:

I) The seeming collapse of Soviet communism has almost completely undone Western expectations of a preemptive nuclear attack. This entails that:

a) Russia can currently launch the 10,000+ nuclear weapons it still has targetted against America and its allies, and it will be a complete surprise. In other words, because we no longer expect it, Russia can now launch a 'surprise' attack.

That this is what Moscow has been planning the whole time would explain why military spending went up under Gorbachev in stark contradiction to the supposedly peace-oriented change in Moscow's foreign policy (i). It would also explain why the Soviets concentrated on expanding and modernizing their strategic nuclear forces over the past seven years while at the same time forging and signing agreements with the West to get rid of such weapons (ii).

b) Since it is not expected, America and its allies have increasingly dropped their guard against a nuclear attack, thus the West is now most vulnerable to one (see note 70).

II) The disintegration of the Soviet empire not only has minimized Western perceptions of the Soviet military threat, it has reduced Soviet vulnerability to Western nuclear retaliation. By letting go of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Republics, Moscow has constrained its vulnerable targets to Mother Russia. Thus, roughly two-thirds of its previous empire is now safe from Western nuclear retaliation following a Russian attack- and that's not counting unconnected puppet states like Cuba (iii).

The idea that the breakup of the Soviet empire was intentional is substantiated by reports that the KGB instigated, rather than sought to repress, the popular uprisings in, at the least, the Eastern European states (iv). Furthermore, it explains why the Soviets never used military force to restore order and control in their empire as had been done throughout the previous 70 years. Lastly, an intentional breakup would explain what interest the Communist Party had in voting itself out of existence.

III) A major element of the Soviet Union's seeming demise has been an economic collapse and increasingly severe food crisis. The failure of the Soviet economy has been rather peculiar, however, in that, as production and employment remained high, the availability of goods for consumers dwindled. This has been attributed to failures in the Soviet distribution system. However, that goods have been produced but not consumed indicates that a large surplus is being lost somewhere. While Western analysts have concluded that there has been a tremendous amount of waste, in the context of a Soviet grand deception to wage a surprise nuclear war, it would make sense that the Soviets have been using an economic crisis as a cover for mass stockpiling.

This would be consistent with how Moscow has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on elaborate and comprehensive civil defense programs which have rivalled Soviet strategic arms programs in both cost and scale (v). It would also explain why shortages have persisted even though many food warehouses throughout Russia are full- partially due to generous Western aid (vi). Lastly, such an economic deception would explain why Western intelligence found that Soviet officials began systematically 'under'-estimating economic output and potential after Gorbachev came to power (vii).

i. Specifically, Soviet defense expenditures increased by 3 percent per year in real terms under Gorbachev. See:

'Soviet Military Power'. US Department of Defense; Washington, DC: (esp. 1989).

ii. See, for instance:

Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US Global Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.

iii. In terms of population and economic potential. Regarding US and NATO retargetting activities, see:

Kruzel, Joseph. '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 76-77.

iv. Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'Fatima Crusader': 10-11/90; 14.

v. See, for instance:

'Soviet Military Power': 1988.

Broder, John. "Underground Shelters Built for Soviet Leaders". 'Los Angeles Times': 4/30/88: I,16.

vi. See, for instance:

Parks, Michael. "Food Shipments Trapped in Web of Soviet Inefficiency". 'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90; A6.

Blitz, James. "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty". 'The Sunday Times': 12/9/90.

vii. Epstein, Edward. 'Deception: The Invisible War Between the KGB and the CIA'. Simon and Schuster; New York, NY: 1989; 241.

For an overview of Soviet strategy for surprise nuclear war, see:

Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.

Van Cleave, Dr. William R. "Soviet Strategic Nuclear Forces and Goals: Deception and Surprise". From: 'Mesmerized By The Bear' Sleeper, Raymond (ed). Dodd, Mead, & Co. New York, NY: 1987; 89-109.

For an overall idea of how and why the military powers of the East- led by Soviet Russia- may be pursuing a grand strategy to deceive and militarily conquer the West, see:

Beichman, Arnold. 'The Long Pretense: Soviet Treaty Diplomacy from Lenin to Gorbachev'. Transaction Publishers; New Brunswick, NJ: 1991.

Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US Global Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1989.

Daily, Brian and Patrick Parker (eds). 'Soviet Strategic Deception'. Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.

Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.

Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.

Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.

Kintner, William. 'Soviet Global Strategy'. Hero Books; Fairfax, VA: 1987.

Kintner, William and Harriet Scott (eds). 'The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs'. University of Oklahoma Press; Norman, OK: 1968.

Sleeper, Raymond (ed). 'Mesmerized By The Bear'. Dodd, Mead, & Co. New York, NY: 1987.

3. "A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90; 29.

4. Information compiled from various news sources. For a thorough analysis of Saddam's military going into the Gulf War, see:

Darwish, Adel and Gregory Alexander. 'Unholy Babylon'. St. Martin's Press. New York, NY: 1991; 85-178.

5. Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90; 10-11.

6. "The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 9.

7. "A Slow Slide Toward War".

8. Kondracke; 10.

9. Bulloch, John and Harvey Morris. 'Saddam's War'. Faber & Faber, Inc. Winchester, MA: 1991; 1-2.

10. Bulloch and Morris; 102.

11. Bulloch and Morris- also see:

"Standing up to Saddam Hussein". 'Economist': 7/28/90; 11-12.

12. Kruzel, Joseph (ed). '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington Books; Lexington, MA: 1992; 1.

13. "The Guns of August".

14. For a synopsis of Resolution 660, see: Darwish and Alexander; 308.

15. For a thorough "Diary of the Gulf Crisis", see: Darwish and Alexander; 299-307.

16. Bulloch and Morris; 5.

17. Darwish and Alexander; 299-307.

18. Kruzel; 107.

19. Kruzel; 1.

20. "US Says Early Air Attack Caught Iraq Off Guard". 'New York Times'. 1/18/91; A10.

21. Grier, Peter. "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Found to be Potent". 'Christian Science Monitor': 1/23/92; 1.

Also from Associated Press (AP) reports taken off Dow Jones News Retrieval on April 19, 1991.

22. For a thorough examination of Iraqi development and usage of chemical weapons, see: Darwish and Alexander; 101-114.

23. Grier; 1.

24. Darwish and Alexander; 112.

25. "The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 74.

26. Tyler, Patrick E. "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.; 100,000 Killed and 300,000 hurt in Persian Gulf cited as tentative figures". 'New York Times': 6/5/91; A5.

27. "The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91; 16.

28. "The 100-Hour War".

29. "U.N. Survey Calls Iraq's War Damage Near-Apocalyptic". 'New York Times': 3/22/91; A1.

30. "The 100-Hour War".

31. "Intelligence in a World of Change (Satellites and Humans)". 'Government Executive' (serial): National Journal, Inc.; Washington, DC: 3/92.

32. For a thorough examination of Iraq's nuclear program, see: Darwish and Alexander; 178-196.

33. Widely reported in the summer of 1991.

Meisler, Stanley. "300 Iraq SCUDs Missing, U.N. Team Reports". 'Los Angeles Times': 11/2/91; A10.

(also from CNN news reports)

34. Epstein, Edward Jay. "Virtual Ally: What's the Soviet Game in the Gulf?". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90; 19-20.

35. Bulloch and Morris; 20.

-the Soviets also profitted from their huge gold, silver, and diamond exports, because precious metals and gems went up in value sharply with the Crisis.

36. Epstein; 19, 20.

37. Kondracke; 12.

38. McAlvany, Don. "Middle East Aflame: Oil Wars in the Persian Gulf". 'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.

Reprinted in:

'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90; 5-10.

39. Morris, Robert. 'Our Globe Under Siege III'. Better Baby; Philadelphia, PA: 1988; 182.

Referenced in: 'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (see note 35).

Specifically, Morris quoted columnist Paul Scott who listed eight facilities which included:

1) A major naval facility at Umn Qasr at the mouth of the Shaat-al Arab which flows into the Persian Gulf. This base includes maintenance facilities for ships and basing for equipment and ammunition. There are also boarding ramps for Hovercraft that can transport naval infantry from the base.

2) The naval installations and facilities at Zubior and al Qurnah, the former on a body of water below the Euphrates River and the latter on the Tigris. Both ports can service Soviet warships.

3) There are air bases at Sulaymaniyah in the northeast mosul in the north central sector of the country.

40. Darwish and Alexander; 136.

41. "Moscow Fears Iraq Won't Pay Back Big Debt". 'Oil & Gas Journal': 9/17/90; 28.

42. Rosenthal, A. M. "Why Moscow Wants to Save Saddam".

Printed in:

Sifry, Micah and Christopher Cerf (eds). 'The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions'. Times Books; New York, NY: 1991; 346.

43. Mann, Paul. "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf: Are They as Weak as They Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90; 24.

44. "Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment". 'Gannett News Service': 2/12/91.

45. Howard, Michael and Robert Lovett. "The Burdens of Victory". 'U.S. News & World Report': 7/13/91; 48-49.

46. Darwish and Alexander; 283.

47. Mann.

48. Bulloch and Morris; 20.

49. Private source.

50. For instance, see:

Sterling, Claire. 'The Terror Network: The Secret War of International Terrorism'. Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.

51. Epstein; 20.

52. Kondracke; 10.

53. McAlvany.

54. Epstein.

55. Epstein.

56. Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10- 11/90; 13.

57. "Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment".

58. 'The American Sentinel' (serial). Phillips Publishing Co.; Washington, DC: 8/90.

Quoted in: "Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader': 10-11/90; 11.

59. Walte, Juan. "U.S. Tried to Nab Soviets Aiding Iraq". 'USA Today': 3/19/91; A4.

Also see:

"Some Secrets of Gulf War Might Never Be Told". 'Gannett News Service': 3/19/91.

"Iraq Hints at Peace Effort; Demands End to Air War; U.S. Cautious". 'USA Today': 2/13/91; A1.

60. Many people have indicated a belief that Western intelligence must be aware of the potential for a Soviet grand deception or deception in the Gulf as is spelt out in my views. However, this a false belief premised on ignorant and irrational faith. If Western intelligence had any suspicion of a deception, the West would never have dropped its guard the way it has- particularly against a nuclear surprise attack. Every indication is that Western 'intelligence' has been outsmarted by the 'intelligencia' of the East. To better understand how this could be so, see:

Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.

Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.

It should be noted here that, if the Soviets have succeeded in misleading us, it is not due so much to their deceptions as to our own self-deceptions. Lenin once said that the best way to overcome the West was to: 'tell them what they want to hear'. It seems Gorbachev may have carried this logic one step further to: 'show them what they want to see'. The point is that Westerners have proven time and time again that they will 'hear what they want to hear' and 'see what they want to see' regardless of the truth of the matter. In other words, our selfish fears, pride, and desires, mislead us into accepting illusions- lies- rather than reality and the truth. Hitler realized this and used it to his advantage resulting in World War II and the virtual loss of free-Europe. Now it appears history may be repeating itself and the consequence will be World War III and the loss of the free-world.

61. See note 2.

62. Most of these are readily apparent points- for specific examples see: Howard; 44. Also see:

Schoenfeld, Gabriel. "The Loser of the Gulf War Is... the Soviet Military." (editorial) 'Wall Street Journal': 3/19/91; A24.

63. That the Soviets are planning to invade Europe later on would explain why they left large stocks of ammunition in Eastern Europe in the wake of their military pull-out.

See: Kruzel, 222.

64. Birnbaum, Jesse. "How Many Wars Can the U.S. Fight?". 'Time'. 3/4/91; 38-39.

65. Birnbaum; 38.

66. Montgomery, Paul L. "NATO Is Planning to Cut U.S. Forces in Europe by 50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91; A1.

67. "Spirit of CFE Treaty Disappears East of the Urals". 'Financial Times': 11/15/90; (European News), 2.

"A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91; A4.

68. Mendelsohn, Jack. "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?" (editorial) 'Wall Street Journal': 2/26/91; A15.

69. "A Glimpse at the Troubled Soviet Army". 'U.S. News & World Report': 12/17/90; 54.

70. In late September of 1991, George Bush ordered that the U.S. strategic bomber fleet be stood-down and dismantled and that all Minuteman II ICBM's be deactivated. Furthermore, he announced that all tactical nuclear weapons were to be pulled off U.S. naval vessels and 80 percent of American nuclear defenses in Western Europe were to be removed. These goals are today complete (completion date: July 1, 1992). This information is widely available in popular press reports.

For a report on how America's guard against a Soviet nuclear sneak attack has been significantly lowered, see:

"Why America New Sentinel Works Only a 40-Hour Week". 'U.S. News & World Report': 5/20/91.

71. Comments following the Gulf War. 'The New York Times': 3/3/91; E2.

Blitz, James. "Hunger in the Heart of Plenty". 'The Sunday Times': 12/9/90.

Broder, John. "Underground Shelters Built for Soviet Leaders". 'Los Angeles Times': 4/30/88.

Bulloch, John and Harvey Morris. 'Saddam's War'. Faber & Faber, Inc. Winchester, MA: 1991.

Cline, Ray (ed). 'Behind the Smile Are Teeth of Iron'. US Global Strategy Council; Washington, DC: 1988.

Daily, Brian and Patrick Parker (eds). 'Soviet Strategic Deception'. Lexington Books; Lexingtion, MA: 1987.

Darwish, Adel and Gregory Alexander. 'Unholy Babylon'. St. Martin's Press. New York, NY: 1991.

Douglass, Joseph D., Jr. 'Soviet Strategy for Nuclear War'. Hoover Institute Press; Stanford, CA: 1979.

Epstein, Edward Jay. 'Deception: The Secret War Between the KGB and the CIA'. Simon & Schuster; New York, NY: 1989.

Epstein, Edward Jay. "Virtual Ally: What's the Soviet Game in the Gulf?". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90.

"A Factor in the Soviet Food Crisis". 'New York Times': 1/4/91.

"The Fury of Desert Storm". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.

Golitsyn, Anatoliy. 'New Lies for Old: The Communist Strategy of Deception and Disinformation'. Dodd, Mead; New York, NY: 1984.

Grier, Peter. "Iraq's Chemical Weapons Found to be Potent". 'Christian Science Monitor': 1/23/92.

"The Guns of August". 'The New Republic': 9/3/90.

Howard, Michael and Robert Lovett. "The Burdens of Victory". 'U.S. News & World Report': 7/13/91.

"The 100-Hour War". 'U.S. News & World Report': 3/11/91.

"Intelligence in a World of Change (Satellites and Humans)". 'Government Executive': 3/92.

"Iraq Hints at Flexibility; Allies Focus Bombardment". 'Gannett News Service': 2/12/91.

"Iraq Hints at Peace Effort; Demands End to Air War; U.S. Cautious". 'USA Today': 2/13/91.

Kintner, William. 'Soviet Global Strategy'. Hero Books; Fairfax, VA: 1987.

Kintner, William and Harriet Scott (eds). 'The Nuclear Revolution in Soviet Military Affairs'. University of Oklahoma Press; Norman, OK: 1968.

Kondracke, Morton. "Saddamnation". 'The New Republic': 5/7/90.

Kruzel, Joseph (ed). '1991-92 American Defense Annual'. Lexington Books; Lexington, MA: 1992.

Leonard, Paul. "Countdown to Destruction". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90.

Mann, Paul. "Judging the Soviets in the Gulf: Are They as Weak as They Look?". 'Aviation Week & Space Technology': 12/3/90.

McAlvany, Don. "Middle East Aflame: Oil Wars in the Persian Gulf". 'McAlvany Intelligence Advisor' (serial). Phoenix, AZ: 8/90.

Mendelsohn, Jack. "Just How Deceitful are the Soviets?" (editorial). 'Wall Street Journal': 2/26/91.

Meisler, Stanley. "300 Iraq SCUDs Missing, U.N. Team Reports". 'Los Angeles Times': 11/2/91.

Montgomery, Paul L. "NATO Is Planning to Cut U.S. Forces in Europe by 50%". 'New York Times': 5/29/91.

Morris, Robert. 'Our Globe Under Siege III'. Better Baby; Philadelphia, PA: 1987.

"Moscow Fears Iraq Won't Pay Back Big Debt". 'Oil & Gas Journal': 9/17/90.

"Newspage". 'The Fatima Crusader' (serial). Constable, NY: 10-11/90.

Parks, Michael. "Food Shipments Trapped in Web of Soviet Inefficiency". 'Los Angeles Times': 12/11/90.

Schoenfeld, Gabriel. "The Loser of the Gulf War Is... the Soviet Military" (editorial). 'Wall Street Journal'.

Sifry, Micah and Christopher Cerf (eds). 'The Gulf War Reader: History, Documents, Opinions'. Times Books; New York, NY: 1991.

Sleeper, Raymond (ed). 'Mesmerized By The Bear'. Dodd, Mead, & Co. New York, NY: 1987.

"A Slow Slide Toward War". 'Newsweek': 7/2/90.

"Some Secrets of Gulf War Might Never Be Told". Gannett News Service. 3/19/91.

'Soviet Military Power'. US Department of Defense; Washington, DC.

"Spirit of CFE Treaty Disappears East of the Urals". 'Financial Times': 11/15/90; (European News).

Sterling, Claire. 'The Terror Network: The Secret War of International Terrorism'. Berkley Books; New York, NY: 1982.

Tyler, Patrick E. "Iraq's War Toll Estimated by U.S.; 100,000 Killed and 300,000 hurt in Persian Gulf cited as tentative figures". 'New York Times': 6/5/91.

"U.N. Survey Calls Iraq's War Damage Near-Apocalyptic". 'New York Times': 3/22/91.

"U.S. Says Early Air Attack Caught Iraq Off Guard". 'New York Times'. 1/18/91.

Walte, Juan. "U.S. Tried to Nab Soviets Aiding Iraq". 'USA Today'. 3/19/91.