The main focus is that the old actors (states, etc) are under assault from new organizations (MNC's, IGO's etc.) that are exerting power. This is causing states to have to be on the defensive. The cold war is over and the resulting system has not stabilized. Whether the world will be UNIPOLAR, BIPOLAR or MULTI-POLAR. There are three scenario's possible: Growing interdependence which causes everyone to work together. Interdependence that causes states to get paranoid and perceive others as a threat and third is that the world will be more dangerous because of new and powerful weapons that more people will have. "Actors will participate in resource wars" There are also challenges across the spectrum that will impact the future: Population growth, food production, nuclear and conventional arms races, the environment, drugs, health, income, trade, energy security and several others. (Papp, reading #1)

Schwartz: Shifting political alignment, technology, global pragmatism, demographics, energy, environment, and global information economy.

Petersen: Democratization, de-ideology, multilateralism, demilitarization, ethnic wars, and ethnic isolation. (PowerPoint reading #3, pg 2)

Don't forget the INTEGRATIONIST and FRAGMENTATIONIST ideas represented in the Petersen article. INT trends: Democratization, De-Ideology, Multilateralism, Demilitarization. FRAG trends: Ethnic wars, Ethnic Isolation, Religious fundamentalism, Crisis of national identity.

The future economic trends that will impact force structures are:

• Revenues: The amount of cash the government has to spend. The trends are for it to hover around 18-20 of GDP. This means it will be limited. Increasing the tax burden isn't going to happen.
• National Debt: It big and generally has been getting bigger. It reduces the amount money available.
• Deficit Spending: Growing the debt, pulling money from the economy. The whole spiral thing with less money equals less taxes equals less revenue equals more deficit spending.
• Interest Rate: less money means higher interest rates, means less money for defense.
• Domestic Discretionary Spending: Only 34% of the budget is for this, defense included. There are big priorities and defense is waning as one of them.
• The current force requires that an ever increasing amount be spent on maintaining readiness, this is at the expense of future force structure. So the force will have to get smaller in order to modernize. ( reading #9)

Other things that impact are: growing economic interdependence, trading blocs, foreign corporations that control defense related industries, etc. These sorts of economic issues make for hard questions where defense is concerned. Globalization means that there could come a time when we are dependent on other countries for critical materials. One way around this is to stockpile stuff, good for oil and minerals, but bad for things like computers which are outdated very quickly. It's a huge industrial base question. (reading #8)

The key societal issues are:

• The welfare state: How much are we willing to spend. Will it take away from defense.
• Taxes: Are they too high or low. The consensus is that they are high. Less money for defense.
• Crime: A burden on the society which causes expense. Less money for defense.
• Public Opinion: Low level of knowledge, Volatility on issues, internationalism, tolerance to war deaths. All lead to smaller forces and more high tech (expensive) means.
• Education: Is expected to lag behind world, could impact innovation.

These things are just a sampling of what's happening. They provide stresses on the future development because they drain resources away from the productive and defense related items we may need. Everything is impacted from people (rifle toaters) to new airplanes (buy an F-22 or a new prison). (reading #7, 9)

502.2 Comprehend how certain wild cards (revolutionary events which have a low probability of occurrence, but a very high impact) in the international arena influence the development of alternative futures.

China is a wild card because it is big and is moving so fast. Its economy is booming, and the present rate of growth and development could be multiplied with a shift in governmental priorities. It is expected that China will be the worlds biggest economy by early in the next century. They want to be a world power and they may have the means soon to get there from here. (Reading #2 pg6)

Russia is considered a wild card because it is in political and economic trouble. The breakup of the Soviet Union has been very traumatic and is not quite run its full course. They still have the second largest nuclear arsenal and a big army. They are also fighting among themselves over the course of their foreign policy. There is a real nationalist trend in some areas. There are two scenarios that were presented: 1. The CIS evolve into peaceful, free enterprise democracies, and 2. They disintegrate into chaos and war. Great choices. (Reading #2, pgs 4/5)

These two countries influence future force structure because they are the major threats, or areas of interest, out there. We must be prepared to deal with them in both best and worst case scenarios.

The primary idea of future technology is going to be the use of long range precision strike weapons, coupled to very effective sensors and command and control systems. They can kill at the touch of a button. The other main idea is the evolution of information warfare. Getting there with the most, the best and being able to deny the other guy his information is considered a key to the future of warfare. (reading 315 pg1)

The main ones discussed are:

• Artificial Intelligence: making machines smart
• Advanced Microprocessors: Smaller, faster, more reliable
• Global communications: Satellite access everywhere
• Virtual reality: total picture through immersion
• Cold Fusion: Endless power which is clean
• Advanced robotics: Machines do the work
• Bioelectric devises: Artificial replacements for limbs
• Zero-Point energy: New form of energy.

The main idea is that things will get smaller, faster, smarter, more complex, and effective. (Reading #11,12,13) The Power Point has some good charts showing military uses.

Some of the impacts could be;

• Art Intel: Smart Cockpits in planes, UAV's, smart bombs, unmanned cargo missions
• Virt Real: 3 dimensional sit awareness, C2 of unmanned space missions, flight control
• Bio-Tech: Food sources in space, O2 Production
• Computational Chemistry: Better materials
• Energy sources: Less fueling req, less waste, directed energy weapons, more range

(PowerPoint notes)

There are a few things that are really being impacted with the coming 21^st century:

• Speed; Everything is moving faster
• Trend toward light: Fiber-optics, faster, more reliable
• Information: Info in the form of knowledge is speed
• Going digital: Information is digital, fast and getting faster
• Global Connectivity: information anywhere in the world at any time
• Global Accessibility: you can get information anywhere.
• Information instead of people: Moving info is better, faster, safer
• Power to the individual: access to information will make individuals more powerful
• Systems thinking: Everything as a system instead of individual parts
• Increasing Complexity; faster, more of it, systems, its all more complex
• Vulnerability: because its digital and electronic, it is vulnerable to individuals
• New structure/Organizations: to shape and transmit info
• Unpredictability: it's moving too fast to predict what's next beyond the short term

(reading #11, pg 10/11)

READINGS

1. Read Papp, Contemporary International Relations, Toward 2000 and Beyond
2. Read Petersen, The Road to 2015, Political Relationships: Not the Same Old Politics
3. Read FC502-1 Slides and Notes, The International-Political Environment
4. Read INSS, Strategic Assessment 1995, Russia and Neighbors
5. Read Bullet Background Paper on The Russian View of Future War
6. Read Bullet Background Paper on The Chinese View of Future War
7. Read Bullet Background Paper on The National Political Environment
8. Read INSS, Strategic Assessment 1995, Economics
9. Read Bullet Background Paper on The Future Economic Environment
10. Read A Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1996
11. Read Petersen, The Road to 2015, Extraordinary Technology
12. Read Bullet Background Paper on The Future Technological Environment
13. Read Bullet Background Paper on The Future Sociological Environment
14. Read FC502-3 Slides and Notes, Technology, the Military and 2025
15. Read 1996 Annual Defense Report, Chapter 11, Technology for the 21st Century

The Papp reading, Toward 2000 and Beyond discusses six critical areas of international change. Petersen argues that during the next decade the major political concern of the country will be to deal with the domestic situation--economic and otherwise--and get it under control. He lists nine general trends that will produce some dramatic new political realities in the coming 20 years. Petersen also examines Russia and China as wild cards in the international community, and discusses the profound influence they may have on the rest of the world. Finally, Petersen provides and excellent discussion on the emerging technologies of the future. The INSS reading on Russia and Her Neighbors is a refresher reading on Russia and the problems and challenges occurring in the country today. An additional INSS reading on Economics identifies key trends and associated security concerns as we move to toward the future. A citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget of the United States, Fiscal Year 1996 is included to highlight the budget process and provide some insight into how this will effect the future of the United States. Powerpoint presentations and short bullet background papers are provided to emphasize key aspects of the future political, economic, technological, and social environments of the future.

Thesis: The political (both international and domestic), economic, technological, and social environments of the future will drive and significantly influence the military force structure of tomorrow. Understanding the potential directions of the future in each of these areas will significantly enhance the development of alternative futures for the focal issue of "What is an appropriate force structure for the year 2025?"

Main Point I: Understanding the future political, economic, technological, and social drivers of the future is critical to the development of alternative futures.

Main Point II: Russia and China as wild cards in the international arena may significantly influence the development of alternative futures.

Main Point III: The implications of technology trends (alone) are profound.

Main Point IV: Throughout history, there are numerous examples where technological breakthroughs have had a significant impact on combat operations.