How the information age differs from the industrial age.
Industrial Age , machine, Linear thinking, specialists
Information Age, computer, System Thinking, Generalists

How future military planning will change w/ info age.
past, had one making all the decisions.
Today, too complex no one man or small group can make these decisions,:

1. National Security Strategy. (target)
2. Grand Strategy. (instruments of power) (economic, political, military)
3. Military Strategy (use of military IOP)
4. Operational Strategy. (Way to get to the target; Campaign)
5. Battlefield Strategy (tactics).

Factors that may influence the development of future force structures.

1. What are we trying to accomplish.
2. What influences or impacts that decision.
3. What have I not thought about as a result of my own prejudices and biases.

General categories that will influence the development of future force structures.
Economy: New Powers: Technology: Global/national society: National Security Objectives:

Credible national objectives for the year 2025.
Enhance our security and promote our prosperity

How will changes to national objective change force structures.
It forces adaptation to new strategy - get things going (the Z diagram)

Tools that make forecasting trends possible. 2 types of Models
Predictive: All get from here to there

1. Incremental:
2. Life-cycle(S-curve):
3. Evolutionary(exponential):

Non-predictive models: Looks at lots of new/different Ideas

1. Futures Wheel:
2. Multiple Scenario Planning:

Value of scenario-based planning: it allows you to rehearse the future,

Process used in the development of alternative futures.

1. ID Focal
2. Key Forces that impact
3. Driving Forces: trends
4. Key Factors: whats important
5. Scenario Logic: the story
6. Fleshing it out: making sure it's logical
7. Implications
8. Indicators Or Sign Posts:

International & domestic environments that affect/alter futures.
Cold war is over, system has not stabilized.
New world - will be Unipolar, Bipolar Or Multi-Polar.
Growing interdependence

Future economic trends impacting US military future.
Deficits, Economic Growth, lack of threat can cause forces to get smaller
More debt = more non-discretionary spending = less discretionary money = less military

Societal changes on future development
Resources (people) are moving away from military
Welfare, taxes, crime, public opinion, education values

China as a wild card
They are growing and have expansionist ideals

Russia as a wild card
economic trouble, 2nd largest nuclear arsenal, army, nationalist trend

How China and Russia influence our future force structure.
They will drive because they are the major threats. If they go away we go away.

Predict military uses for emerging technologies.
long range precision, great sensors, C2 systems

Importance of technology in shaping future forces.
Focus on more accurate, faster, more reliable, faster to produce, increased stealth, mobility, dispersion and pursuit of a higher tempo of operations
Negative effect will be the cost of this new technology
Dominant battlespace awareness will improve situational awareness, decrease response time, and make the battlespace considerably more transparent to those who achieve it.

National debt / balanced budget affect future force structure.
Force needs to be smaller and more efficient while economizing tasks

International and domestic politics in the shaping of future forces.
Internationally, the lack of a tangible threat; reluctant to support a large, expensive military without the perception of a tangible threat.
Domestic political considerations such as crime, the environment, and societal medical concerns.

Social issues of aging, social diversity, and value conflicts
Smaller pools of recruits; military and society are diverging; less population interacting w/ military New recruits different set of values than 20 years ago.

Key changes to the force structure in the 21st Century.
Bottom-up Review -an overall force req, three types of military operations: fighting major regional conflicts, maintaining overseas presence, and peace enforcement and humanitarian interventions.
An alternative method of planning would be to drop specific scenarios and focus defense resources on the military capabilities the U.S. will need in the long term.

Technological advances impact 21st century air, ground, and sea forces.
Operating w/ less manpower & force structure; use. technological edge: stealth aircraft, precision guided munitions, and superior battlefield surveillance and intelligence.
An approach to force planning focused on the contributions made by such specialized systems on the modern battlefield might allow savings on traditional weapons platforms

Meeting 21st Century objectives w/ a smaller but technologically advanced force
Mass comes from precision, not numbers, and mass does the job

Proposed reform initiatives impacting the acquisition process.
Significant savings by overhauling our defense acquisition system; commercial items, exempting items from government-unique contracting and accounting req.; Stop required use of military specifications; using commercial and performance high quality standards

Changes to accelerate development, production, delivery, and supportability of a new weapon system.
Teamwork,Tailoring acquisition, Empowerment of managers, Cost as an independent variable, Commercial products, Best practices modeled on sound commercial/business experience.
The use of integrated product and process development and integrated product teams in DoD acquisition.

Move from a threat-based to a technology-based requirements system.
relying on a policy of reacting only to an identified threat as the basis for our force structure may be disastrous; Make people respond to us, be the cutting edge

Explain the logical progression from today's force structure to 2025.
Full Spectrum Dominance will be the key characteristic; six critical elements required to transform the operational concepts into joint capabilities: people, leadership, doctrine, education and training, organizational structure, and materiel.
Force Enhancements include: strategic mobility through more prepositioning and enhancements to airlift and sealift; the strike capabilities of aircraft carriers; the lethality of Army firepower; and the ability of long-range bombers to deliver conventional smart munitions.