OS 501 SYSTEM ANALYSIS

LESSON OBJECTIVES

501.1 Comprehend the complex systems, such as opposing military forces, can be analyzed using a system analysis approach.

501.11 Describe Col John A. Warden's philosophy of the enemy as a system

Viewing the enemy as a system , you can focus on the essential sub components and identify centers of gravity, which when affected will cause cascading effects. When you are going to war, know why you are going . Have some idea of what your enemy wants out of the war and the price each of you is willing to pay.

War is about making your enemy do something you want him to do when he doesn't want to do it-and then preventing him from taking an alternative approach which you would also find unacceptable. In simple terms: make it too expensive for the enemy to resist with "expensive" understood in political, economic, and military terms; physically prevent an enemy from doing something by imposing strategic or operational paralysis on him ; or destroy him absolutely.

By strategic targeting of the enemy, you can by pass the fielded forces, can target the leadership . Air power can be a decisive factor in war. Can attack the enemy using "Parallel Warfare".

When we understand how the enemy is organized, we can move to the concept of centers of gravity. Understanding the centers of gravity then allow us to make reasonable guesses as to how to create our demands. If the enemy does not respond to imposed costs, then this same understanding show us how to impose operational or strategic paralysis on the enemy so he becomes incapable of opposing us.

Seeing the enemy as a system shows the interdependency, and the relationship of the sub- components. It gives enormous advantage over those who see the enemy merely as an army or air force.
(Warden -- Air Theory for the Twenty-first Century)

501.12 Explain the advantages and disadvantages of system analysis

Advantages

• It follows an organized scheme -- is detailed.
• It helps categorize information to make real decisions.
• You can categorize and see the relationships ( interdependent) of the sub components
• See how the enemy is organized…..works for any system
• Can easily see the centers of gravity and how to create costs which may lead the enemy to accept demands.
• Shows how to impose operational or strategic paralysis on the enemy.
• Can use a top-down approach to identify and analyze COGs
• Can relate the system to objectives.

Disadvantages

• May have to educate the enemy on the effect of your operations ( costs to him)
• You may have to give him accurate information on the extent of his losses (lack of information .
• Do not do well for some non-life-based systems
• Assumes cause and effect relationships

501.2 Comprehend the two system analysis techniques presented in this lesson: the Five Rings Model and Nodal Analysis

501.21 Describe the elements of the Five Rings model (i.e., leadership, system essentials, infrastructure, population, and fielded military) and how the model can be applied to a system.

Arranging the tubular table into five rings, the most crucial element is the inner most ring the leadership- the person or entity with the power to agree to change. Contain Command, Control, Communications and Decision-Making capability of the enemy. Second ring around the bull's eye represent system essentials (to convert energy from one form to another) military and economic production capability, its factories electronic grids, power plants, refineries etc. The third ring infrastructures - (to tie it together) roads, bridges etc. means of transportation ,movement and distribution. The fourth outer ring is population (people - to make it function). The outer most , and least important of the target array fielded military (defense force to protect it from attack).

Every life-based system is organized about the same way, only details vary. (Nodal Analysis Tool book).

501.22 Explain how to accomplish a nodal analysis of a system

Before we discuss, let us go over a few definitions. A System is a group of elements that works more or less together to transform an input into an output. A Node is an element of a system. A system can be broken down into its individual components or nodes. In any instance a node of a system is in itself a system. A Link is the relationship (not physical elements) between nodes. Describes how the nodes interact with each other. Can be one way or two way. Critical Nodes ..by affecting one or more nodes so that a system changes in such a way that the outputs are what we want them to be. Risk Vulnerability assessments are done to determine if critical nodes are vulnerable to our capabilities.

Then determine if we can affect the crucial nodes with the available resources, and if they are vulnerable is it worth the risk to affect them. (Nodular Analysis Tool book)

501.23 Summarize the strengths and weaknesses of both models

Strengths and weakness of 5 Rings Model

Strengths
Very well suited to large, complex system. Can model a large system quickly. Shows similarities between different systems.

Weakness
Do not work well for some non-life-based systems. Require massive amount of intelligence. Assumes a cause and effect relationship.

Strengths and weakness of Nodal System Analysis

Strengths
Detailed. Works for nearly any system. Relates affecting the system to objectives.

Weakness
May take a lot of time to model large complex systems. Easy to get caught in the weeds.

Require massive amount of intelligence.

501.24 Explain how Warden's Five Rings and nodal analysis complement each other when analyzing a complex system

A good technique for analyzing large complex systems is to start with Warden Five Rings

1. Then switch to Nodal Analysis as the system gets smaller or more specialized
2. In this way you can capitalize on the strengths of each model.
3. What is the relationship between systems analysis and intelligence?
4. Both require massive amounts of intelligence
5. Both give an idea where to focus future intelligence gathering efforts.
   

501.25 Given a system, use warden's Five Rings and nodal analysis techniques to determine the COGs and critical nodes of that system

Please follow THE BLUE TEXT BOOK page 195 and Nodal Analysis Toolbook Exercises.

3 Comprehend the relationships between strategic, operational, and tactical levels of war.

501.31 Define what is meant by strategic, operational and tactical levels of war.

Strategic:

Incorporates the broadest concerns of national policy.
Concerned with planning (making strategy)
Each level is concerned with implementing strategy.
Corresponding to the 3 levels of war are the national strategy with its three sub- components (political, economic and military) operational, strategy and battlefield.

Operational:

Focuses on campaigns.

Tactical:

Focuses on battles and engagements.

(Nodal Analysis Tool book)

501.32 Describe the relationships between the strategic, operational and tactical levels of war.

Strategic military strategy is the art and science of coordinating the development and use of the military instrument of power to achieve the national objective.

Operational strategy is the art and science of planning, orchestrating and directing military campaigns within the theater of operations to achieve national objectives.

While Battlefield strategy (tactics) is the art and the science of employing the forces on the battlefield to achieve national objectives. (Nodal Analysis Tool Book)

Main Point 1: When developing a campaign plan, a systematic approach is a valuable tool for analyzing a complex entity such as an enemy's opposing forces. By viewing the enemy as a system, you can focus on the essential sibcomponents and identify COGs which when affected will cause cascading effects that achieve your objectives.

Main Point 11: Col John warden proposes a top-down approach using a Five Rings Model to identify and analyze potential COGs. In addition, COL Warden advocates by passing the fielded forces and targeting the leadership of a system though numerous simultaneous attacks to achieve strategic paralysis.

Main Point 111: Using Nodal Analysis, nodes and links are identified which lead to determining the critical nodes of a system. If these critical nodes are discovered and affected, one can precipitate cascading effects and achieve your objectives.

Main Point 1V: There are advantages and disadvantages to both Warden's Five Rings and the nodal analysis. However, they can be used separately or in conjunction to analyze a military system.

Main Point V: During the Gulf War, system analysis was successfully employed in the development of the air campaign plan.

READING RATIONALE

WARDEN'S article advocates a systems approach, using the Five Rings Model to do our analysis of the enemy. It also outlines his view of the enemy as a system, and his advocacy for the use of parallel attack as the method of imposing strategic paralysis on the enemy. The NODAL ANALYSIS TOOLBOOK provides the information necessary to understand nodal analysis techniques. WAR: ENDS AND MEANS (Seabury & Codevilla) provides an overview of the purposes and objectives of Iraq and the U.S. during the Gulf War. Gulf War Air power Survey (Cohen & Keany) discusses the early U.S. air campaign plan and target considerations. Phase 1 called for attack on 12 interrelated targets in order to " result in disruption of Iraqi command and control, loss of confidence in the government, and significant degradation of Iraqi military capabilities. The GENERALS WAR (Gordon & Trainor) gives a distinctive behind the scenes account and analysis of the planning and conduct of the Gulf War. It presents KARI air defense system to include its makeup and capabilities, both of which are necessary for completing an operational analysis. The reading provide information necessary to apply both system analysis techniques, Warden's Five Ring and Nodal analysis, to a recent historical event.