TH 511 DISCUSSION

Throughout this course we have learned how war theory defines the field of military thought and doctrine, and provides an orderly methodology for thinking about war (including the use of air and space power). This lesson wraps up the War Theory course with a discussion of emerging air and space power theory.

Airpower theory since the time of Air Corps Tactical School (ACTS) focused upon strategic bombardment doctrine which advocated economic warfare based upon industrial targeting. Desert Storm marked a shift from this economic-based form of warfare to what has been called "control" warfare. You will study two control warfare theorists who are part of the leading edge in this transition. As your reading by David S. Fadok notes, Col. (Ret.) John Warden advocates parallel, inside-out attack against five target categories he refers to as the "five rings," while John Boyd's concept is one of operating inside an enemy's decision cycle. In both cases, these theorists contend that the airpower objectives and associated strategies should focus on enemy command and its paralysis. This lesson will afford the opportunity to compare and contrast Warden's and Boyd's ideas, and analyze the possible future direction of airpower theory's development.

Another important area of emerging theory is that dealing with space. Lt. Col. Michael R. Mantz is a leading advocate for the development of a separate theory for space. His theory divides military space operations into three broad categories: space denial, space strike, and space protection. Mantz then proposes a set of space combat power axioms that defines these categories and synergize their combat effects.

THE EVOLUTION OF EMERGING AIRPOWER THEORY

LOQ. How does Fadok describe the evolution of airpower theory?

DISCUSSION. Before airpower, most theorists sought to achieve war aims through either annihilation or attrition of the enemy's armed forces. Early airpower theorists argued that war aims could be achieved more effectively and efficiently by rising above and reaching beyond surface forces. What emerged during the interwar years was a strategic bombardment doctrine advocating economic warfare based upon industrial targeting. As the previous lesson shows, this doctrine continued to be employed with mixed results through Viet Nam. In Desert Storm one could argue that the shift towards the control warfare discussed by Warden and Boyd began. Control warfare is based upon command-based targeting rather than industrial targeting.

FUQ. How would you define the strategic paralysis Fadok recognizes as a by-product of our emerging airpower theory?

DISCUSSION. Fadok argues that the roots of the concept of strategic paralysis go all the way back to Sun Tzu, who said "those who win every battle are not skillful--those who render others' armies helpless without fighting are the best of all." Clausewitz, though often seen as bent on destruction of the enemy, was even closer to the concept of strategic paralysis when he defined destruction of the enemy as follows: ".... they must be put in such a condition that they can no longer carry on the fight." Fuller's Plan 1919 (TH 507) may have been the first operational plan aimed at enemy paralysis He described man as consisting of three components: body, mind, and soul. These formed the basis for his analogous three spheres of war: that aimed towards the physical (destruction of the enemy's physical strength), the mental (disorganization of his mental processes), and the moral (disintegration of his moral will to resist). Again, great similarities with Sun Tzu's are evident. Fadok adds to Fuller's original concept the idea of nonlethal intent. This idea does not necessarily imply the elimination of destructive actions or fatalities during combat, but their minimization through application of non-lethal means.

In summary, Fadok describes strategic paralysis as a military operations with physical, mental, and moral dimensions which ideally focus on disabling rather than destroying the enemy. This will permit military objectives to be attained with minimal impact upon the post-hostility environment.

FUQ. How are Col Boyd's and Col Warden's theories of strategic paralysis similar and how are they different?

DISCUSSION. Fadok compares Cols. Boyd and Warden to Jomini and Clausewitz, respectively. This comparison is not without merit. Boyd's theory is process-oriented and aims at psychological incapacitation. He talks about conducting military operations inside the enemy's decision-making cycle (OODA loop) to induce an enemy force to collapse of its own weight. Boyd's theory is quite esoteric. He speaks of getting inside his "mind, time, and space," yet offers few, if any, operational details as to how to go about accomplishing these abstract aims.

Warden's strategic paralysis theory is form-oriented and aims inflicting physical incapacitation through parallel, inside-out strikes against an enemy's five strategic rings, always focusing on the effects strikes have on the inner, "leadership" ring, whether that ring is specifically targeted or not. Adoption of Warden's strategy requires one to view the enemy through a systems analysis approach. Adoption of a systems approach permits a complex enemy system to be reduced to its basic parts or functions, the thorough analysis of which yields appropriate target sets. This approach permits enemy combat effectiveness to be mathematically represented as follows:

combat effectiveness = physical strength x moral strength

Warden contends that by inducing physical paralysis and reducing the physical component to zero, the moral component will no longer be relevant.

To sum up, Boyd's and Warden's airpower theories both focus on inducing strategic paralysis in an enemy. They differ in that Boyd would induce this paralysis through psychological incapacitation which renders military forces powerless whereas Warden advocates inducing physical paralysis on the enemy's fielded forces, thereby rending moral strength irrelevant.

FOQ: What does Boyd mean when he talks about "psychological dislocation"?

DISCUSSION. This entails rendering the enemy powerless by denying him the time to mentally cope with the rapidly unfolding, and naturally uncertain circumstances of war. This is best accomplished by conducting military operations which force the enemy to respond to fluid, uncertain situations at a faster rate than his decision-making apparatus can easily handle.

FUQ: What does Col. Warden mean by the concept of "cascading effect"?

DISCUSSION. A "cascading effect" is achieved by thoroughly and simultaneously incapacitating the entire enemy system from the inside (leadership ring) out (ending at his fielded forces). Employing airpower in parallel, near-simultaneous attacks against multiple, diverse target sets throughout the 5-ring system overload his decision-making apparatus to the extent that it can no longer react to defend itself.

EMERGING AIRPOWER THEORY

During this course we have discussed the evolution of the way we think about war from the classical theorists' basic concepts through the modern medium-based theories which tailor those concepts to best reflect their unique concerns. This evolution will continue as we enter the 21st century.

LOQ. From the Fadok reading, what will future warfare entail?

DISCUSSION. Fadok envisions a transition from economic warfare based upon physical destruction to control warfare based upon informational targeting. He differs from both Boyd and Warden in the target sets he attempts to affect. Instead of targeting the leadership (either psychologically or physically), Fadok believes his information processing systems must be attacked. Fadok believes such "information dominance" will grow to be even more important than it was in the Gulf War. Some have called this new form of warfare "cyberwar" - the planning and execution of military operations in accordance with information-related principles. Fadok postulates that as technological advances permit decision-making and command structures to shift from top-down organizations to more horizontal structures, the leadership element may diminish in importance. This would arguably reduce the importance Warden and Boyd attach to the leadership ring of the enemy system, while increasing the importance of information networks.

Another factor to take into account when considering our transition to "cyberwar" is the uneven rate at which nations (or any politically significant organizations) reach maturity in the ongoing information or cyber MTR/RMA. The US military in the 21st century (and by extension, US air and space power) will have to be capable of successfully responding to what the Tofflers refer to "first wave" (agrarian) threats and "second wave" (industrial) threats, as well as "third wave" (information pr "cyber") threats simultaneously.

FUQ. What does Col Warden view as primary characteristics of 21st century airpower?

DISCUSSION. Warden believes that airpower in the 21st century will continue to emphasize precision, nonlethal technology, and information. These may be incorporated into a "reconnaissance-strike complex" which fuses sensors and shooters either physically or electronically. While this makes the shooter more dependent upon the sensor, such vulnerability is nothing new and is, in some respects, a strength.

EMERGING SPACE THEORY

Current USAF doctrine considers air and space as an indivisible whole and emphasizes the following traditional space capabilities: communications, reconnaissance, navigation and warning, and surveillance. The advent of "cyberwar" suggests that space will become increasingly important in future warfare. One must therefore ask the following questions: Does our current airpower theory adequately addresses space concerns? If it does not, is a distinct space theory required? What concepts should our space theory include, and how will these concepts be integrated into other theories?

Much of the theoretical underpinning for space control should be familiar from to you from your earlier study of Mahan and Corbett. The vast, open, and unobstructed nature of both the air and space and sea mediums suggest that their respective theories should share some common themes. It is useful to reconsider Corbett's and Mahan's ideas on sea control in assessing Mantz's theory of space. Lt Col Mantz's views concerning space combat are derived from his views on space control just as Mahan's and Corbett's thoughts on naval warfare flowed from their views on command of the sea.

LOQ. How does AFM 1-1 define the aerospace environment?

DISCUSSION. AFM 1-1 notes that there are physical differences between the atmosphere and space, but defines no absolute boundary between them. Thus, the term "aerospace" comprises the entire expanse above the earth's surface outwards towards infinity. The entire earth's surface is therefore accessible to aerospace forces.

FUQ. What are the roles and typical missions for aerospace power outlined in AFM 1-1?

DISCUSSION. Aerospace power can be employed across the traditional Air Force operational spectrum. AFM 1-1 begins its discussion of aerospace control by addressing the typical missions of counterair and counterspace. It then discusses possible force applications including strategic attack, interdiction, and close support missions. AFM 1-1 also recognizes aerospace contributions to force enhancement such as airlift, air refueling, spacelift, electronic combat, surveillance and reconnaissance, and special operations. Force support roles including base operability and defense, logistics, combat support, and on-orbit support are also addressed.

FUQ: How do Mantz define "space control"?

DISCUSSION. Space control (like command of the air and command of the sea) involves operations to ensure the unencumbered use of space while denying such use to the enemy.

FUQ: "How is space control similar to command of the air or sea?

DISCUSSION. All three recognize that success in their respective mediums depends upon the ability to operate in an unconstrained fashion. Therefore, to exercise command of the air Douhet recognized that the skies had to be cleared of opposing air forces. In the same way, Mahan argued that sea control depended upon clearing the seas of enemy fleets. Both concepts are similar to Mantz's concept of space denial operations.

FUQ: How do Mantz's proposed space roles and missions differ from AFM 1-1?

DISCUSSION. Mantz changes AFM 1-1's roles from space support, force enhancement, space control, and force application to threespace support, force enhancement, and space combat (roughly incorporating AFM 1-1's concept of space control and force application). Space combat is the focal point of much of Mantz's space theory. He suggests that a theory of space combat is necessary to the understanding and proper employment of our space capabilities, particularly given the rapid proliferation of space based capabilities throughout the world.

FUQ. What elements does Mantz's include as components of space combat?

His concept of space combat includes space denial, space strike, and space protection. In his study, Mantz defines space denial as "hostile application of destructive or disruptive force against enemy space systems to deny the enemy's use of the space medium." He defines space strike as the hostile application of destructive force "from space against natural-body-based (earth, moon, and asteroid) targets." Space protection, meanwhile, is defined as "defensive application of...force to defend friendly space systems."

FUQ. What arguments does Mantz cite which oppose the concept of space combat?

DISCUSSION. Mantz notes several current arguments against space combat, the first of which is the physical challenge of getting into space. He suggests that the US space launch capability is not responsive enough. He is also concerned about the cost of spacelift, and political resistance to the militarization of space which many view as a violation of the 1972 Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty. Finally, Mantz recognizes possible technology shortfalls which may preclude effective space combat even if other constraints were removed.

FOQ. Mantz proposes a preliminary set of space combat power axioms which highlight the difficulty in establishing a distinct space theory. How do his space combat power axioms compare with airpower tenets?

DISCUSSION. The initial impression one gets in reviewing Mantz's theory via his space power axioms is that there is nothing that really distinguishes space concerns from those of airpower generally. His axioms seem to be founded upon the same airpower tenets which have been evolving since W.W.I. This contradicts his major contention that the term "aerospace" theory is invalid because it does not recognize the inherent differences in the air and space mediums. It would seem that if space theory is to be considered apart from airpower theory, its body of thought should diverge from or transcend in some way that of airpower.

CONCLUSION.

Throughout this course we have observed how war theory - how we think about war - has evolved over time as a result of fundamental changes in contextual or operational art elements which sometimes manifest themselves as MTRs or RMAs. The validity of theory is assessed as it is put into practice in a variety of settings. Theory and the doctrines which flow from it are then modified as required by the lessons learned. If we fail to capture the lessons learned in combat into our theory of war, our doctrine becomes dogma and will ultimately result in our defeat on the battlefield. Our current doctrine seems to have served us well during Desert Storm. How long it will remain adequate is a matter of debate. It will be up to you, the airpower planners and leaders of the next century to ensure that our ideas concerning the proper employment of air and space power continue to evolve when necessary based on our past experiences, our present requirements, and our most informed guess as to what the future holds.

1