LESSON 26:PERSIAN GULF WAR
27 September 2001 (0830-1130)
Mr. Tony Williams: 245-3299
COL Larry Forster: 245-3292

A new world order is not a fact; it is an aspiration and an opportunity. We have within our grasp an extraordinary possibility that few generations have enjoyed--to build a new international system in accordance with our own values and ideals, as old patterns and certainties crumble about us. In the Gulf we caught a glimmer of a better future-a new world community brought together by a growing consensus that force cannot be used to settle disputes and that when that consensus is broken, the world will respond. In the Gulf, we saw the United Nations playing the role dreamed of by its founders, with the world's leading nations orchestrating and sanctioning collective action against aggression. But we remain in a period of transition. The old has been swept away, the new not yet fully in place.

George Bush
National Security Strategy, 1991

1. Introduction.

a. Responding to threats to our clear national interests and concluding peace operations with all their attendant complexities are two main tasks in the national security demands of the post-Cold War period. To help us gain a better understanding of how we came to view the most complex aspects of what has become the responding pillar of our national security policy we will focus in this lesson on the events leading to the Gulf War. A study of the events leading up to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the coalition response to that aggression provides insights into the application of all instruments of national power in a collective security response to such aggression, and into the security challenges of the contemporary era.
b. In this lesson we look at the factors and mechanisms that shaped and influenced the George H. Bush Administration's response to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Whether one subscribes to the realist or idealist school of international relations, at some point in a specific crisis each administration must create its own system of rules and norms for deciding how best to respond. Ideally, national policy provides the broad outline for alternative courses of action. However, seeing the issues clearly and deciding on how best to proceed are difficult enough for a single nation. Imagine the complexity of crafting strategy for collective security entities when competing national agendas threaten to distort the common goal. In the case study "Prelude to War: U.S. Policy Toward Iraq 1988-1990" we will analyze how well the Bush Administration handled the emerging crisis in the Gulf and evaluate alternatives actions that, if taken, may have averted the crisis.
c. In addition to allowing you to judge how effectively the Bush Administration attempted to cope with the deteriorating situation in the Gulf, this lesson also permits us to analyze the relationship between policy and strategy in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Strom. A strong consensus within the United Nations reflected in UN Security Council Resolution 660, 2 August 1990, condemning Iraq and calling for the immediate removal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait, laid the foundation for subsequent U.S. and international action in the Gulf. Quickly forging an extraordinary coalition, the former Bush Administration led a response to isolate Iraq, protect Saudi Arabia, and prepare to evict Iraqi forces from Kuwait. Unlike some previous conflicts, the stated objectives, as forged by the U.S. for the Gulf War, were clear: (1) immediate, complete, and unconditional withdrawal of Iraqi forces from Kuwait; (2) restoration of Kuwait's legitimate government; (3) security and stability of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf [region]; and (4) safety and protection of the lives of American citizens abroad. Yet, even with the support of the international community and the strong resolve of coalition members, there were many challenges to coalition cohesion and durability as the strategy changed from deterrence to compellance.
d. Conflict termination in this case proved to be difficult and controversial with respect to timing, fulfilling objectives, responding to uprisings against the Government of Iraq in the immediate aftermath of the war, and the continuation of Saddam Hussein in power (and the ongoing threat to Gulf security). A study of the Gulf War "end game" and its aftermath is very illustrative of the challenges facing policy makers and commanders attempting to bring a conflict to a "successful" conclusion.
e. The coalition operation that seemed to bring the Gulf War to a successful conclusion under a UN mandate inspired much of the subsequent optimism over the renewed potential of the UN to fulfill the lofty ideals embedded in its charter. However, the proliferation of failing states, ethnic conflict, and seemingly intractable problems that thwarted the best efforts of the UN to solve in places like Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda, and Cambodia have curbed expectations of the UN today.

2. Learning Objectives.

a. Understand the organizational and political influences to include cabinet-level departments, Congress, NSC, DOD agencies, the media, and public opinion on the development of national security strategy and strategic decisionmaking.
b. Assess the relationship between national and military strategy in the Gulf War.
c. Understand and evaluate the relationship between successful conflict termination and shifting objectives in a complex coalition arrangement where policy is apt to lack the focus it would have in a unilateral application of force by a single nation.
d. Assess the strengths and weaknesses of collective security and multilateral military operations in situations where no clear consensus exists within the United Nations (e.g., Somalia, Haiti, and Bosnia).
e. Understand how the Gulf War has influenced the current US defense establishment; its structure, policies, and strategies.

3. Student Requirements.

a. Tasks. Prepare for the "Prelude to War: US Policy Toward Iraq 1988-1990" case study according to the guidance provided by the Faculty Instructor.
(1) Participate in seminar discussions and be prepared to discuss insights and implications for future force projection operations derived from a study of the Gulf War.
(2) Imagine yourself in the decision-making environment that faced U.S. decision makers at the time of the crisis in the Gulf. Which decision-making factors were most important? Why?
b. Required Readings. U.S. Army War College, Department of National Security and Strategy. Readings in War, National Policy, and Strategy. Carlisle Barracks: 2001. Vol. III (Student Issue)
(1) Zachary Karabell and Philip Zelikow, Prelude to War: U.S. Policy Toward Iraq 1988-1990, Case Study C16-94-1245.0 by the President and Fellows of Harvard.
(2) Bard E. O'Neill and Ilana Kass, "The Persian Gulf War: A Political-Military Assessment," Comparative Strategy Vol.11, No. 2 (April/June 1992): 213-240.
(3) Lawrence E. Cline, "Defending the End: Decision Making in Terminating the Persian Gulf War," Comparative Strategy, Vol. 17, No. 4 (October/December 1998): 363-380.

c. Suggested Readings.
(1) Andrew J. Bacevich, "A Less Than Splendid Little War." Wilson Quarterly (Winter 2001): 83-94. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
(2) Dubois, Thomas R. "The Weinberger Doctrine and the Liberation of Kuwait." Parameters Vol. 21, No. 4 (Winter 1991-92): 24-38. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
(3) Summers, Harry G., Jr. On Strategy II: A Critical Analysis of the Gulf War. New York: Dell Publishing, 1992. Read pp. 248-267. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
(4) Jablonsky, David. The Owl of Minerva Flies at Twilight: Doctrinal Change and Continuity and the Revolution in Military Affairs. Carlisle Barracks, PA: US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1994. Read pp. 7-59. (Reserve Reading Shelf)

4. Points to Consider.

a. What are the lessons of the "Prelude to War…" case study for the senior military professional? How should alternative views and dissent be processed? Do the various organizations that participate in the interagency process shape or limit the range of available decisions? If so, how?
b. What defense issues are most critical to the application of U.S. national power in the emerging world of the 21st Century?
c. Do these issues suggest any changes that may have to be made in the calculation of the relationship among ends, ways and means at the national strategic level or the national military strategic level?
d. Was the Gulf War a "model" for responding to threats to vital national interests in the future?
e. What were the strengths and weaknesses of coalition warfare in this case study?
f. How did the Bush administration's efforts to establish clear policy objectives shape the conflict termination effort and the peace that followed?
g. Could the U.S. and its allies successfully conclude a Gulf War-type of conflict with currently available force structures and capabilities?

1991 Gulf War chronology

Day 1: Wednesday, Jan. 16

• Desert Storm begins at 7 p.m. EST (3 a.m. Jan. 17 in Iraq) with massive air and missile attacks on targets in Iraq, Kuwait.
• President Bush: "We will not fail."

Day 2: Thursday, Jan. 17

• Iraqi President Saddam Hussein declares: "The great showdown has begun! The mother of all battles is under way.''
• Iraqi Scud missiles strike Israel.
• Scud fired at Saudi Arabia is downed by U.S. Patriot missile - first anti- missile missile fired in combat.

Day 3: Friday, Jan. 18

• Amid retaliation speculation, President Bush says Israel has promised not to respond to Iraq's attack.

Day 4: Saturday, Jan. 19

• At least three Scuds explode in Tel Aviv, Israel, injuring about 17. Israel vows to defend itself but refrains. United States rushes in Patriots, making Army crews first U.S. soldiers to defend Israel.
• U.S. troops raid oil platforms off Kuwait, capturing first Iraqi prisoners of war.

Day 5: Sunday, Jan. 20

• Iraqi TV airs interviews with captured allied airmen.
• Iraq fires 10 Scuds at Saudi Arabia; nine are intercepted, one falls offshore.

Day 6: Monday, Jan. 21

• U.S. officials say despite more than 8,000 sorties in five days, elusive mobile Scud missile launchers remain a threat.
• Iraq says it has scattered prisoners of war as shields at allied air targets.

Day 7: Tuesday, Jan. 22

• Iraq fires six Scud missiles at Saudi Arabia; one is destroyed by Patriot, others fall harmlessly.
• Iraq torches Kuwaiti oil wells, tanks.
• A Scud eludes U.S. Patriot missiles and hits Tel Aviv. Three people die.

Day 8: Wednesday, Jan. 23

• U.S. officials deny Saddam Hussein's claim that allies bombed baby-formula plant, saying plant was a chemical factory.
• Iraq fires Scuds at Israel and Saudi Arabia; no casualties.
• President Bush urges Saddam Hussein be brought to "justice," suggesting removal of Iraqi president could be a goal.

Day 9: Thursday, Jan. 24

• Number of allied sorties surpasses 15,000.
• Saudi officials report two oil slicks moving south of Kuwait. Allies say Iraq released oil; Iraq blames allied bombs.

Day 10: Friday, Jan. 254

• Japan says it will send military aircraft to assist allies in non-combat situations.
• Scud missiles are fired at Israel and Saudi Arabia. Two people killed.

Day 11: Saturday, Jan. 26

• Massive oil spill grows, threatening Saudi Arabia's industrial and desalination plants and gulf environment.
• Iraqi warplanes land in Iran. Iran says it has seized them.
• U.S. F-15s enter war's first major dogfight, shoot down three Iraqi MiG- 23s.
• Pentagon confirms USS Louisville is first sub to launch cruise missile in combat.
• Scuds fired at Israel and Saudi Arabia; no casualties.
• More than 75,000 protesters march in Washington, D.C.

Day 12: Sunday, Jan. 27

• Allies bomb Iraqi-held oil facilities in Kuwait to stop Iraq from dumping oil into gulf.
• Amid fears of terrorism, Super Bowl XXV goes off without a hitch.

Day 13: Monday, Jan. 28

• Iraq says captured allied pilots have been injured in allied bombing raids.

Day 14: Tuesday, Jan. 29

• In largest ground battle yet, battalion-size force of U.S. Marines (up to 800) fire artillery, mortars, TOW missiles, at Iraqi bunkers half-mile away in Kuwait. No U.S. casualties.
• United States, Soviet Union issue communique offering Iraq cease-fire if it makes "unequivocal commitment" to withdraw.

Day 15: Wednesday, Jan. 30

• Scores of Iraqi tanks, thousands of troops advance into Saudi Arabia. Attacks are countered by U.S. Marines, Saudi and Qatari troops. Eleven Marines die.
• Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, allied commander, says allies have air supremacy and are reducing Scud threat.

Day 16: Thursday, Jan. 31

• Saudi and Qatari troops, backed by U.S. artillery, retake Khafji, Saudi Arabia.
• Sheik Abdul-Aziz Bin Baz, Saudis' leading interpreter of Islamic law, calls Saddam Hussein "enemy of God."

Day 17: Friday, Feb. 1

• Allies bomb 10-mile-long Iraqi armored column headed into Saudi Arabia.

Day 18: Saturday, Feb. 2

• Two Scuds hit central Israel; no casualties. Patriot downs Scud over Saudi Arabia; two injured.

Day 19: Sunday, Feb. 3

• Allied air campaign passes 40,000-sortie mark - 10,000 more missions than were flown against Japan in final 14 months of World War II.

Day 20: Monday, Feb. 4

• Iran offers to mediate peace talks, resume official relations with United States.
• Battleship Missouri fires at Iraqi positions inside Kuwait - first time ship has fired in combat since Korean War.

Day 21: Tuesday, Feb. 5

• Iraq suspends fuel sales to civilians, worsening heating and transportation problems.
• Syrian troops, in first combat action, repulse Iraqi probe at Saudi-Kuwait border.

Day 22: Wednesday, Feb. 6

• U.S. F-15 fighters shoot down four Iraqi jets as they try to join 120 Iraqi aircraft that have been flown to Iran.

Day 23: Thursday, Feb. 7

• President Bush's top two war advisers - Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell - leave for gulf to assess war.
• Battleship Wisconsin joins Missouri in firing huge 16-inch guns at sites in Kuwait - first combat firing for Wisconsin since Korean War.

Day 24: Friday, Feb. 8

• Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, en route to Saudi Arabia, gives strongest indication to date ground war is coming. Open question: when.

Day 25: Saturday, Feb. 9

• Defense Secretary Dick Cheney and Joint Chiefs Chairman Colin Powell meet for more than eight hours with Desert Storm commander, Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf, other military leaders.
• Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev warns that military operations in Persian Gulf war threaten to exceed U.N. mandate; he says he's sending envoy to Baghdad for talks with Saddam Hussein.

Day 26: Sunday, Feb. 10

• Saddam Hussein addresses his nation for first time since three days after war started, pledging victory and praising "steadfastness, faith and light in the chests of Iraqis."

Day 27: Monday, Feb. 11

• President Bush, after meeting with top two military advisers, says alliance is in no hurry to begin ground war.
• News reports in Egypt say Iraq's government estimates privately that more than 15,000 Iraqi troops have been killed.

Day 28: Tuesday, Feb. 12

• Allied forces open combined land-sea-air barrage against Iraqis in Kuwait - largest battlefield action to date.
• Officials say cost of fighting effects of oil slick lapping at Saudi Arabia's coast will be $1 billion over next six months.

Day 29: Wednesday, Feb. 13

• U.S. Stealth fighters drop two bombs on fortified underground facility in Baghdad. Iraqi officials claim at least 500 civilians are killed in facility, which they describe as public bomb shelter. U.S. military officials release information they say proves underground facility was military command center.

Day 30: Thursday, Feb. 14

• Pentagon says allied planes have destroyed at least 1,300 of Iraq's 4,280 tanks, 800 of 2,870 armored vehicles and 1,100 of 3,110 artillery pieces.
• United Nations Security Council meets in closed session to discuss war.

Day 31: Friday, Feb. 15

• Iraq says it is prepared to withdraw from Kuwait, but adds conditions, including Israeli pullout from occupied Arab territories, forgiveness of Iraqi debts and allied payment of costs of rebuilding Iraq. President Bush dismisses Iraqi offer as "cruel hoax." - Allied forces continue moving supplies toward front in preparation for launch of ground war.

Day 32: Saturday, Feb. 16

• U.S. attack helicopters make first nighttime raids on Iraqi positions.
• Iraqi authorities claim 130 civilians were killed by British Tornado jet strikes.
• Iraq fires two Scuds at Israel, hitting southern part of country for first time; no injuries.
• Iraq's ambassador to U.N., Abdul Amir al-Anbari, says Iraq will use weapons of mass destruction if U.S. bombing continues.
• Pentagon says Iraq deliberately staged damage of civilian areas as propaganda.

Day 33: Sunday, Feb. 17

• President Bush says Iraq's takeover of Kuwait will end "very, very soon."
• U.S. and Iraqi troops clash in seven incidents along Saudi-Kuwait border; 20 Iraqis surrender to Apache helicopter fire.
• Iraq's foreign minister, Tariq Aziz, arrives in Moscow for talks with Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. He is quoted en route as saying it's up to allies to act on Iraq's peace proposal.
• U.S. military, intelligence officials estimate 15% of Iraq's fighting forces in Kuwait area have been killed or wounded.

Day 34: Monday, Feb. 18

• Floating mines strike two U.S. warships in gulf. USS Tripoli and USS Princeton damaged but still operational.
• Air Force helicopter search team rescues U.S. pilot who parachuted from disabled plane 40 miles north of Saudi border.

Day 35: Tuesday, Feb. 19

• Baghdad Radio reports Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz has returned to Baghdad with Soviet peace proposal.
• President Bush says Soviet proposal falls "well short" of what's needed to end war.
• Iranian newspaper cites Iraqi official as saying Iraq has suffered 20,000 dead, 60,000 wounded.
• U.S. Marines bombard Iraqi targets inside Kuwait with heavy artillery fire for second consecutive day.
• Saudi officials say gulf oil slick is smaller than originally feared - 60 million gallons, not 400 million.

Day 36: Wednesday, Feb. 20

• One American killed, seven wounded in fighting along Saudi border. U.S. helicopters destroy Iraqi bunker complex; up to 500 Iraqis taken prisoner.
• U.S. planes attack 300 Iraqi vehicles 60 miles into Kuwait, destroying 28 tanks.
• Baghdad Radio says Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz will travel to Moscow "soon" with Saddam Hussein's reply to Soviet peace proposal.
• Allied commander Norman Schwarzkopf is quoted as saying Iraq's military is on "verge of collapse."
• U.S. officials want Iraq to announce specific timetable for withdrawing from Kuwait as condition for peace settlement.

Day 37: Thursday, Feb. 21

• Soviet spokesman Vitaly Ignatenko announces Iraq, Soviet Union have agreed on plan that could lead to Iraqi withdrawal.
• Saddam Hussein declares Iraq remains ready to fight ground war.
• Defense Secretary Dick Cheney says allies are preparing "one of the largest land assaults of modern times."
• Seven U.S. soldiers killed in helicopter crash - war's deadliest non- combat accident to date.

Day 38: Friday, Feb. 22

• President Bush rejects Soviet peace plan, deplores Iraq's "scorched- earth" destruction of Kuwaiti oil fields. He demands Iraq begin withdrawal from Kuwait by noon Feb. 23 to avoid ground war.
• Iraqi information official brands U.S. position "shameful ultimatum."
• Soviet Union announces eight-point withdrawal plan.
• Iraq sets ablaze one-sixth of Kuwait's 950 oil wells.

Day 39: Saturday, Feb. 23

• Allies' ground offensive begins at 8 p.m. EST (4 a.m. Feb. 24 Saudi time).
• Defense Secretary Dick Cheney halts news briefings on war.
• At 10:02 p.m. EST, President Bush tells nation, "The liberation of Kuwait has entered the final phase." Bush authorizes commander Norman Schwarzkopf to "use all forces available, including ground forces, to expel the Iraqi army from Kuwait."
• U.S. officials say Iraqi soldiers are rounding up Kuwaitis to torture, execute.
• At least 200 oil wells and facilities are ablaze in Kuwait.

Day 40: Sunday, Feb. 24

• Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf hails first day of allied ground offensive as "dramatic success." Allied casualties are very light; more than 5,500 Iraqis are captured.
• Saddam Hussein urges troops to kill "with all your might" in radio speech.
• More than 300 attack and supply helicopters strike more than 50 miles into Iraq, largest such assault in military history.
• Queen Elizabeth II, in first wartime broadcast of 39-year reign, tells her country she has prayed for victory.
• Iraq fires two Scud missiles into Israel; no injuries.

Day 41: Saturday, Feb. 25

• Baghdad Radio reports Saddam Hussein has ordered troops to withdraw from Kuwait in accordance with Soviet peace proposal.
• Says White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater: "The war goes on."
• On Kuwait's Independence Day, allied forces are reported on outskirts of Kuwait City, poised to liberate capital as more reports surface of Iraqi killings of civilians and torching of buildings.
• Iraqi Scud missile hits barracks in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia. Eventual toll: 28 U.S. soldiers killed, 90 wounded.
• U.S. officials report four U.S. soldiers killed, 21 wounded in first two days of allied ground assault; nearly 20,000 Iraqis taken prisoner; 270 tanks destroyed.
• Iraqi-launched Silkworm anti-ship missile shot down by allied warships.

Day 42: Tuesday, Feb. 26

• Brig. Gen. Richard Neal in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, says Iraqi forces are in "full retreat" with allied forces pursuing; Iraqi POWs number 30,000-plus, number to climb to 63,000.
• Saddam Hussein announces Iraqi occupation forces will withdraw completely.
• Residents of Kuwait City celebrate end to occupation. Resistance groups set up headquarters to control city.
• U.S. Marine in Kuwait City says U.S. Embassy is back under U.S. control.

Day 43: Wednesday, Feb. 27

• Kuwaiti troops raise emirate's flag in Kuwait City.
• President Bush declares suspension of offensive combat and lays out conditions for permanent cease-fire.

By USA TODAY