LESSONS 35 AND 36:APPROACHES TO GRAND STRATEGY: (EXERCISE)

Tue 16 October 2001 Exercise (0830-1130)
Tue 16 October 2001 Directed Study (1300-1600)
Wed 17 October 2001 Exercise (0830-1130)
Dr. David Jablonsky 245-3341

Wk group 1 Bob as 1^st Group leader From Lionel to Dan
Wk group 2 Ross as 2^nd Group Leader
Briefing 0830 Wed
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1. Introduction.
     a. "The future," the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21) reminds us, "is an enigma wrapped in familiarities." If we awoke to the world of 1975, we would feel basically at home. And yet there would be no way that we could foresee the world of 2001. Who then could have predicted the end of the Cold War; the revolutions in information, transportation, communications, and technology; or the specific amalgam of conflicts that have soiled international relations in the last decade? In a similar manner, we are likely to feel at home in 2025-even more so because of the comfortingly gradual manner of our arrival. Nevertheless, there are a multitude of things that will have changed by the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century that we cannot now foretell.

    b. These two lessons use the third part of the security mantra, "Prepare for an Uncertain Future," in a macro context to examine the future global security environment in the first quarter of the 21st Century and the impact of current policy decisions on U.S. strategy at the end of that quarter. The seminar will constitute itself as three JCS working groups, each provided different Presidential guidance for the mid- to long-term (10-25 years), and each charged with the task of identifying how certain areas of the National Security Strategy (NSS00), the Defense Strategy (QDR), and the National Military Strategy (NMS97) should be modified in order to meet the specific Presidential guidance for the future world environment.

2. Learning Objectives.
    a. Understand the derivative connections of the QDR and NMS to the NSS.
    b. Appreciate the complexity of preparing for the emerging global security environment in the first quarter of the 21st Century.
    c. Understand the four future worlds addressed by the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century and why the Commission believes that the first quarter of the 21st Century will be a patchwork of the four worlds.
    d. Critically examine the Commission's conclusions in terms of the broad context of the international security environment that it foresees in this patchwork of future worlds.
    e. Critically examine the impact of several alternate policy guidance decisions on the internal and external U.S. strategic environment beyond 2010.
    f. Understand how national policy guidance can influence the ways and means of achieving national security strategic objectives and national military strategic objectives.
    g. Use knowledge gained in Course 2 concerning international security systems and the process of formulating and implementing national and military strategy in discussing how the United States can prepare for the uncertain future of the 21st Century.

3. Student Requirements.

     a. Tasks.
          (1) Be prepared to discuss briefly the future security environment as outlined in the Tangredi reading.
           (2)Faculty instructor will divide each seminar into three JCS working groups, and provide each working group specific Presidential Guidance to the SecDef/CJCS concerning U.S. policy for the period 2010-2025. Based on this guidance, the future as outlined by the Tangredi reading, and a specific briefing format, each working group during a designated study time will evaluate the applicable sections of NSS00, QDR, and NMS97 in terms of suitability, feasibility and applicability for the period 2010-2025 and identify what and how certain areas of all three strategies should be changed.
          (3) Students will return to seminar and brief the results of their working group evaluations.

     b. Required Readings.
          (1) Michele A. Flournoy, ed. QDR 2001: Strategy-Driven Choices for America's Security, Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 2001, December 2000, pp. 25-60. "The Future Security Environment, 2001-2025: Toward A Consensus View," by Sam J. Tangredi. (Review from Lesson 27). (Student Issue)
          (2) A National Security Strategy for a Global Age. Washington, DC: The White House, December 2000. Sections I, II & IV. (Review from Lesson 27) (Student Issue)
          (3) Report of the Quadrennial Review. The Pentagon. Washington, DC: May 1997. Section III. (Review from Lesson 28) (Student Issue)
          (4) National Military Strategy of the United States of America. The Pentagon. Washington, DC: 1997, pp. 5-20. (Review from Lesson 28) (Student Issue)

     c. Suggested Readings.
          (1) Scales, Robert H., Jr. America's Army: Preparing for Tomorrow's Security Challenges. Army Issue Paper No. 2, Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, November 1998, pp. 1-10. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
          (2) National Defense Panel Report. Transforming Defense-National Security in the 21st Century. Arlington, VA: December 1997, pp. 5-17. (Student Issue)
          (3) The United States Commission on National Security/21st Century. Part I. New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century. Supporting Research and Analysis. Washington, DC: 15 September 1999. http://www.fas.org/man/docs/nwc/index.html (Reserve Reading Shelf)
          (4) Metz, Steven. Strategic Horizons: The Military Implications of Alternative Futures. Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1997. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
          (5) Metz, Steven. American Strategy: Issues and Alternatives for the Quadrennial Defense Review Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategy Studies Institute, September 2000. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
          (6) Jablonsky, David. Paradigm Lost? Transitions and the Search for a New World Order. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995, pp. 65-88. (Reserve Reading Shelf)
          (7) Lovelace, Douglas. The Evolution in Military Affairs. Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 1997. (Reserve Reading Shelf)

4. Points to Consider.
     a. Do the current U.S. strategies (NSS00, QDR, NMS97) address adequately the future described by the NSSG?
     b. How does current national security policy guidance affect future strategies and force structure?
     c. What are U.S. interests likely to be between 2010 and 2025? Will they differ from current interests?
     d. Given the specific policy guidance for your particular work group, what are the implications of the policy recommendations contained in your Course 2 paper for the National Security Strategy beyond 2010?